Russia's War Against Ukraine

Started by ArizonaTank, November 26, 2021, 04:54:38 PM

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GDS_Starfury

we were spending $300 million a day in Iraq.
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Gusington



слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

GDS_Starfury

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


Jarhead0331

#3033
War truly is hell.

This is gun camera footage of a Russian KA-52 getting a kill on a moving Ukrainian vehicle. it also shows the demise of surviving occupants. I can't say i've ever seen video like this before. Discretion advised.

https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-ka-52-destroys-ukrainian-vehicle/?ref=asmdss&fbclid=IwAR1_fXrf0401ONV1Fztlmny6EGzJnMtBYGLiJWXOKR4kwkvPdxzKoLhFVi0

Russian radio chatter is roughly translated in the link below the video.
Grogheads Uber Alles
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"No beast is more alpha than JH." Gusington, 10/23/18


MengJiao

Quote from: Sir Slash on July 01, 2022, 09:04:15 PM
There were predictions, when the invasion began, that Putin's government would collapse by summer. He's still there. I don't see any Bread Riots beginning in Petrograd. Nor any political opposition not already in jail. Nor have I heard of any recent mutinies among the military forces. I think Putin's job is safe until whatever's killing him finally catches-up with him. And until then he will continue the current low-level war against Ukraine and probably get away with it. As long as the price of oil stays high, the Russkies will have people to sell it to and money to spend on whoever they want to fight with.

Zelensky said the other day the cost of the war will be $5 Billion-a-month. Raise your hands whoever wants to pick-up that tab.

  5 billion a day is one 8000th of the GDP of the US plus Europe.  The Russians can sell oil, but only at a discount, so that's a huge opportunity cost
on a dwindling resource.  Economically the US plus NATO has them at 40 to one and the odds against Russia are
getting worse all the time.  If Putin had fallen sooner, they would now be much better off since they would no doubt have stopped this mess.
The longer Putin stays and the longer this goes on, the worse is for Russia and the easier it will be (once they stop)
to get them to agree to try to be a normal rogue state instead of a suicidal rogue state.

Skoop

The biggest asset for Russia is their state run media.  Number one reason they have been able to hold it together this long.  Those bastards in Russia are so brainwashed with their bullshit propaganda, it's hilarious the stuff they are fed and they eat it up.

It would take something drastic to get through those mindless zombies.  Like Ukraine recapturing Crimea, and even that would get spun into some Russian bullshit.  I'm really surprised we aren't exploring more counter intelligence options to break through the propaganda, or we are but it has no effect on a Russian zombie brain (or lack of).

GDS_Starfury

Quote from: Skoop on July 03, 2022, 08:50:56 PM
Number one reason they have been able to hold it together this long.  Those bastards in Russia are so brainwashed with their bullshit propaganda, it's hilarious the stuff they are fed and they eat it up.

this applies to so many things right now.l   :-\
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.


FarAway Sooner

Understanding the Russian economy has always been hard.  Two reasonably balanced assessments come from NPR and from The Economist.  Both suggest that the Russian economy is hurting worse than the Western economies, but not nearly as badly as was forecast a few months ago.  Both conclude that sanctions won't be nearly enough to dissuade Putin or the Kremlin from their adventure in Ukraine any time soon, but both also agree that the long-term impact on the Russian economy could be extremely harmful.

https://www.wksu.org/npr-news/npr-news/2022-07-01/are-sanctions-actually-hurting-russias-economy-heres-what-you-need-to-know

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/06/10/russias-economy-appears-to-be-back-on-track


Sir Slash

I watch the Money shows on FOX and CNBC and they reported 2 weeks ago that the Ruble was the strongest it had been in 7 years vs the Dollar and other currencies. The G7 countries met this past week to find new way to sanction Russia because the previous ones were having less than expected results, the new sanctions on Russian gold followed.

As long as Putin's got the money, he'll continue the war. In fact he's probably saving money now that the war has shrunk. He doesn't give a fig about Russia or Russians, long term if he's only got short-term time left to live. Nor does he care about leaving Russia a satellite of China. I think he sees it as a choice, either a satellite of China or a satellite of the West, and he's chosen his neighbors to the east.

Star's right, there's a whole lot of brain-washed people out there. That's why it's so important not to dismiss out of hand anyone's thoughts or opinions whether you agree with them or not.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.

MengJiao

#3039
Quote from: Gusington on July 01, 2022, 08:58:11 PM
^Hahaha it always comes back to the basics.

   The statements by Putin noted below are kind of puzzling -- not as puzzling as some, but still -- it looks like he is sort of declaring victory and no one is noticing.  Note also that, while two new regional
offensives seem to be proposed, the real point may be to explain why the attacks in the center are being reduced while those forces rest -- ie, that axis is stopping, having achieved a "victory" that
Putin can't seem to quite accept himself.  Moreover -- having sort of personally claimed a victory of some kind, the newly announced objectives are due to the generals and not Putin which suggests they
may not have the aroma of "victory" that Putin wants to absorb from ceasing one line of attack.  Kind of paradoxical -- we know it's a victory because the Russians at least are claiming to plan to attack elsewhere.  Meanwhile, it seems quite possible that the Russians are firing missiles at Belorus and their own territory in a larger version of shooting RPGs at their own headquarters in the "breakaway" regions in eastern Moldovia.




   Putin says generals have proposed "development of offensive operations" and forces must proceed per plans
From CNN's Anna Chernova

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he received a proposal from the Russian army generals on the development of the "offensive operations" in Ukraine.

"Col. General Alexander Pavlovich Lapin and Army General Sergey Vladimirovich Surovikin also reported to me today on the progress in fulfilling the tasks assigned to them and their proposals for the development of offensive operations," Putin told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at meeting in the Kremlin.
The Ministry of Defense "keeps in view" all the proposals of the commanders in the field, Putin added, saying that while military units that participated in the operation in the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) should rest, other formations, including the East and West groups, must proceed with tasks according to plans.

This comes as Putin congratulated Russian troops for "achieving victory" in Ukraine's Luhansk region.



Skoop

Perun had a myth buster episode on YouTube last week and one of the things he pointed out is the medias constant reporting of who seems to be winning and loosing like we are watching a sporting event.  I've noticed this in both western and Russian media over loosing lpr.  Perun stated if you look at the maps from a couple months ago where Russia occupied large swaths of land north of Ukraine and looked at maps today after lpr fall.  Russia occupies less of Ukraine today than it did in March April. So Ukraine is still winning, don't forget that nor should the western media falling into the doom and gloom fear mongering to get viewers.

I've been saying weeks ago Ukraine should make a tactical withdrawal.  Why fight Russia in the one thing they can actually do.....sit in static positions and shell with arty like it's wwii.  Ukraine should regroup for more mobile operations and expose the week Russian infantry in maneuver warfare.  Look for counter attacks towards Kherson.

JasonPratt

The lack of withdrawal may be: 1.) motivated by trying to avoid losing political morale by ceding land even temporarily; and 2.) a concern that the withdrawals could not be made safely without the Russians prosecuting the withdrawal, catching the Uks out of defensive position.

One wonders what would have happened had Putin started with this limited focus grinding strategy and then switched over a couple months later to knocking on all doors instead of vice versa! (But of course the point to the original attempt was to try to force a political collapse from initial stress. High reward for few Russian casualties if that had worked.)
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MengJiao

#3042
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 05, 2022, 10:20:58 AM
The lack of withdrawal may be: 1.) motivated by trying to avoid losing political morale by ceding land even temporarily; and 2.) a concern that the withdrawals could not be made safely without the Russians prosecuting the withdrawal, catching the Uks out of defensive position.

One wonders what would have happened had Putin started with this limited focus grinding strategy and then switched over a couple months later to knocking on all doors instead of vice versa! (But of course the point to the original attempt was to try to force a political collapse from initial stress. High reward for few Russian casualties if that had worked.)

  According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian criticism of the recent slow advances by Russian forces is that Russia is fighting the war on terms imposed by Ukraine and that the Ukrainians are deliberately staging these defensive battles to inflict maximum losses on the Russians.  So (at least from the Russian point of view) the whole attrition to the end of time plan is sort of not working and the end of time is nowhere in sight.  So the lack of withdrawal might be just a way of massacring the Russians (at least from the Russian point of view).

  So, maybe from the Russian point of view, if Putin had focused on grinding from the beginning, the Russians might have already run out of ammo and had heavier losses for fewer gains (for example they wouldn't have ground their way to Kherson at their current rate -- remember, early on the advance from Crimea was pretty fast and there's been no Russian quick withdrawal there though the Ukrainians are driving them back slowly there anyway).

FarAway Sooner

Quote from: Sir Slash on July 04, 2022, 07:37:59 AM
I watch the Money shows on FOX and CNBC and they reported 2 weeks ago that the Ruble was the strongest it had been in 7 years vs the Dollar and other currencies. The G7 countries met this past week to find new way to sanction Russia because the previous ones were having less than expected results, the new sanctions on Russian gold followed.

As long as Putin's got the money, he'll continue the war. In fact he's probably saving money now that the war has shrunk. He doesn't give a fig about Russia or Russians, long term if he's only got short-term time left to live. Nor does he care about leaving Russia a satellite of China. I think he sees it as a choice, either a satellite of China or a satellite of the West, and he's chosen his neighbors to the east.

Star's right, there's a whole lot of brain-washed people out there. That's why it's so important not to dismiss out of hand anyone's thoughts or opinions whether you agree with them or not.

The Economist article I cited above gives a lot of details on the value of the Russian ruble.

QuoteAccording to estimates from the Institute of International Finance, a trade association for banks, Russia's earnings from exports over the past three months were 65% higher than in the same period last year. Imports meanwhile, some of which are subject to Western sanctions, are down by 20%. The net result is a trade balance for the past three months nearly four times higher than a year before. That has provided Russia with plenty of cash to prop up its currency and fuel its war.

The article also provides a lot of context on the larger economic picture.  A one-sentence summary if it's too long to read:  "Russia's economy appears to be back on track.
But inflation has jumped, some goods are short and the long-term outlook is precarious."

Sir Slash

That's two sentences but who's counting?  ;)  I don't think Putin cares long term or short term, he wants a win against his, 'Traditional Enemies' going back to his KGB days, the West. His legacy to his people will be suffering and isolation but he will see it as victory against the foes who destroyed his precious Soviet Union. And as long as nobody's got the testicles to stand-up to him, or the strength to survive standing-up to him, this will continue.

Russia failed in Afghanistan but this is another time and a whole other type of war. The effort may have to be generational and I don't see the West staying interested that long.
"Take a look at that". Sgt. Wilkerson-- CMBN. His last words after spotting a German tank on the other side of a hedgerow.