Russia's War Against Ukraine

[bobarossa]

Dragon's teeth are too heavy if they're solid!

[JasonPratt]

They're hollow in order to stuff them with bodies. 

......I can't even tell if I meant that as a joke anymore. This war, man.

Meanwhile: Khorne group!? That is just begging for some Warhammer memes! (Or maybe WH fans named the group?)

[JasonPratt]

while playing blue whos won this as a wargamer?

Well, I'd try taking that armor brigade south of Novoselivka, roll it south to meet the mechanized infantry brigade and infantry... company or regiment, can't tell if that's an off-center I with a map mark next to it, or a II with fainter right number (maybe it's a half-company  )...

...anyway, those two elements, and then see if I could roll up the red line south of Novoprokovkha.

First up, a red VDV brigade and motorized infantry battalion. Fix them and flank them with the blue mech infantry to the west. Prep with arty support if possible.

(This assumes the two blue brigs in reserve are ready to go and aren't shells rebuilding.)

[JasonPratt]

I don't know the context of this clip from Newsweek (via MSN) -- it cuts off at a suspiciously quick place -- but Newsweek acts like Russia is ready to accept Crimea as Ukrainian under a 1980 treaty... 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-appears-ready-to-accept-crimea-as-ukraine-s-on-one-condition/vi-AA1hd9DY?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=cea6d8ddb1714184933fa539ec88221c&ei=36

...seems like disengenuously edited clickbait by a formerly respectable news magazine, but can someone provide the missing context?

[GDS_Starfury]

Marder takes a hit and everyone lives.  also no fire or turret toss.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1706280610531082690

[JasonPratt]

Ork Smerch gets smushed, video provided by Suchomimus:

Apparently only the second confirmed destruction of a Smerch.

Also, today I learned that the former Soviet military counter-intelligence organization SMERSH (most famous now for early Bond films, but created back in 1942-43, nickname coined by Stalin) means nothing but SMERSH in English (as an acronym for Death To Spies!), but Smerch is Russian for tornado!

[JasonPratt]

From yesterday's ISW analysis:

The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders' and officials' attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin's micromanagement. A Kremlin insider source claimed that Putin reportedly gave Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu a deadline of one month until early October 2023 to improve the situation on the frontlines, stop Ukrainian counteroffensives, and have Russian forces regain the initiative to launch an offensive operation against a larger city.[32] The insider's claim, if true, may indicate that the Russian military command may be ordering relentless counterattacks in hopes of forcing the Ukrainian counteroffensive to culminate, even at a high cost to Russian military capabilities.  ISW has previously observed instances in which the Russian MoD, fearing the imminent loss of Putin's favor, intensified its efforts to purge commanders who offered honest but negative views and advice and pursued unachievable military objectives at the expense of Russian forces.[33] The Russian MoD, for example, launched an unsuccessful and costly offensive on Vuhledar in February 2023 to undermine the domestic Russian informational effects of the Wagner Group's progress in Bakhmut and maintain favor with Putin.[34] Russian insider sources and milbloggers who have advocated for Teplinsky claimed that Shoigu has been focusing on setting conditions to convince Putin to remove Teplinsky from command – which would likely be achievable if Shoigu is able to achieve Putin's objectives during the counteroffensive.[35] One pro-Teplinsky channel even claimed that Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had already removed Teplinsky from overseeing the defensive operation in southern Ukraine, although ISW cannot confirm the validity of this claim at this time.[36]

Putin: stop their offensive in one month.
Shoigu: {checks Rasputista timing}


More seriously, I continue to maintain that the chief reason the Russians have been defending by counterattack north of Azov Sea, is because they could not and cannot give Ukraine so much access to artillery (and especially short-range) interdiction of the supply artery running through the area into Crimea. But other reasons can also be true.

[GDS_Starfury]

russias gonna russia

[Crossroads]

War on the Rocks with a long article on Ukraine's "Bite and Hold" tactics.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/biting-off-what-it-can-chew-ukraine-understands-its-attritional-context/

[Sir Slash]

As per Willie OAM's blog yesterday, one of the UAF's big generals, I can't remember which one, told CNN recently that the Counteroffensive would continue through the winter.  He said the small unit tactics would allow them to keep attacking and steadily pushing the Russkies back. When they reached Topmak, or however it's spelled, only then would there probably be a real breakthrough to the Sea of Azov. Optimistic or disinformation to throw the Russians off, I don't know? I wonder if the poor bastards in the trenches got this message?

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1706431697548398765

[GDS_Starfury]

and of course!

[GDS_Starfury]

the squad so far

[JasonPratt]

Needs a moon in the sky for completion, but otherwise 

[GDS_Starfury]

so there was also an incident with a viper today.....