Russia's War Against Ukraine

[bobarossa]

How awesome would it be if the vote went the other way despite all the flagrant cheating?  :dreamer:

Stalin: "Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
(most experts believe he didn't actually say that but it's still true)

[Pete Dero]

How awesome would it be if the vote went the other way despite all the flagrant cheating?  :dreamer:

The vote is a huge success : of the 500,000 forms distributed 1,000,000 voted in favor of annexation in one region.

[JasonPratt]

^  Glory to the vote counters for their most triumphant success!


On a more serious note, at this point (considering the riots and conscripts trying to flee Russia), I'd say the odds of Putin nuking one of his own cities and trying to blame it on the West, have increased.

[FarAway Sooner]

I think one can be nuanced and critical in one's assessment of the situation, without being a Russian sympathizer.  I wasn't as impressed by the YouTube clip upthread as some, but I think it sets a really dangerous precedent when we stop listening to people who offer different nuances than we're used to. 

Like most smart guys used to speaking in public, he certainly gets most of his individual trees right.  I think he just misses the forest, at least based on what I could glean from that interview.  Obviously, that's just my opinion.

Europe does have an energy problem.  Germany in particular has an LNG problem.  The Western Europeans in general, and the Germans in particular, have done a better job than the US of embracing renewables.  However, much of that (and particularly in Germany) was directed towards shutting down nuclear power following the Fukushima disaster.

Short-term, the energy disruption in the European economies will be dramatic.  It's already been going on for a while.  Long-term, economic disruptions due to one-dimensional energy embargoes don't work that well.  There are too many alternatives, in terms of substitute energy sources (e.g., Germany has adamantly refused to fire back up a couple nuclear reactors that have been mothballed in the last 12 months), in terms of demand destruction (Europe can't buy 20,000,000 heat pumps, but you can bet that they are buying every single one that they can get their hands on, and even if that number is only 3,000,000, that'll whittle down demand), and in terms of just opening up heated public spaces to folks in need.

Will it hurt, especially this winter?  Yes.  Will it cause the Western Europeans to bow out and go home, saying, "OK, Russia, take Ukraine, just give us our heat back, please"?  No.

The world went through much harder oil shocks during the OPEC embargo back in the late 70s.  The timing on this one sucks, but the long-term response will be worse for Russia than for Europe.

[Sir Slash]

Just curious, what WOULD be a too-high a price to pay to support Ukraine in this war in the minds of the enlightened thinkers here? Bankruptcy for the West and the U.S.? Collapse of the world economy? Global nuclear war? Another 20-year long commitment to a war the U.S. doesn't intend to win? How about if Zelensky turns-out to be as bad, or worse, than Putin? Is there anything that is too great a price to pay to buy Ukrainian victory?

And if the answer is, 'no', what about Taiwan, or fill-in the blank of the next war in line?   

[MengJiao]

Just curious, what WOULD be a too-high a price to pay to support Ukraine in this war in the minds of the enlightened thinkers here? Bankruptcy for the West and the U.S.? Collapse of the world economy? Global nuclear war? Another 20-year long commitment to a war the U.S. doesn't intend to win? How about if Zelensky turns-out to be as bad, or worse, than Putin? Is there anything that is too great a price to pay to buy Ukrainian victory?

And if the answer is, 'no', what about Taiwan, or fill-in the blank of the next war in line?

  I can't speak for the enlightened, but one should consider a range of scenarios.  After all, what does a bought Ukrainian victory look like?  That's kind of the question, really, isn't it?

  1) scenario 1 and really pretty likely -- Russia decides to negotiate with the West: ceasefire, and a neutral zone.  UN or some other group, runs the disputed provinces for a long time.  Sanctions and whatnot
are slowly lifted and things slide back to normal sort of.  Result -- end of war, lots of talk, economies are bumpy, nobody goes bankrupt
  2) Scenario 2 -- Russia doesn't negotiate with the West, Ukraine takes it all, Russian stuff goes via China, India and Turkey and the UN (a round-about version of 2 except Russia suffers more -- sort of happening with the grain deal already)
  3) scenario 3 -- Russia completely falls apart -- this is sort of the most disturbing scenario -- what fills that huge vacuum full of oil and nukes?  China?  Khazakstan?  Iran?  India?

Hopefully we get something like scenario 1, but Russia hasn't been too rationally lately.
 

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, in happier news, I just saw where Russia 'donated' another couple of functional T-90s to the Uks!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xnkuiw/two_abandoned_russian_t90as_after_failed/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

They're gonna need some bigger tractors... ;)

The short version is that the two tanks got mis-driven off-road and stuck, whereupon the crews abandoned them -- one with its tracks still rolling in gear!

It's one thing to have so many tanks on hand, and so many more constantly rolling out of the factory, that you don't think you have to bother much with recovery-and-repair forces (and their own kit and vehicles and supporting/protective troops), but that sure ain't Putin's situation nowadays!

[Sir Slash]

 :o

[Pete Dero]

Meanwhile, in happier news, I just saw where Russia 'donated' another couple of functional T-90s to the Uks!

Apparently there is a joke going around in Ukraine : we thank the US for their support but our biggest donor of weapons is Russia for which we are enormously grateful.

[GDS_Starfury]

Just curious, what WOULD be a too-high a price to pay to support Ukraine in this war in the minds of the enlightened thinkers here? Bankruptcy for the West and the U.S.? Collapse of the world economy? Global nuclear war? Another 20-year long commitment to a war the U.S. doesn't intend to win? How about if Zelensky turns-out to be as bad, or worse, than Putin? Is there anything that is too great a price to pay to buy Ukrainian victory?

And if the answer is, 'no', what about Taiwan, or fill-in the blank of the next war in line?

how is this conflict going to bankrupt the US?
how is it going to collapse the world economy?
its not the US war to win but it seems the Ukraine is doing ok so far.
LOL @ Zelensky being a worse putin, like really.... where do you come up with this stuff.

[steve58]

Edward Snowden Granted Russian Citizenship

I think if I were Snowden, I might be more than a little concerned due to the timing.  More cannon fodder for Ukraine, maybe?

[GDS_Starfury]

the mobilization has been a huge success!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574483334679478284

putin remains a master strategist.

the giddy warmongering continues.

[Jarhead0331]

^It's fucking tragic. You can feel how serious it got in the room when she started talking about gun shots.

...and only an imbecile who has never seen the true face of war would be giddy about any of this.

[Windigo]

Looks like the UAF has punched  two pretty good holes in the Soviet lines north of Lyman and have crossed the Oskil River.

That absolutely puts Svatove and other critical supply routes up for grabs. Not a good situation for any Soviet forces south of that.

Soviets 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division down to near combat ineffective....

After a pause, the north seemingly continues to be rolled up by the UAF.

Yes I want Ukraine to be victorious - kick Orc ass; but it still sucks that this means mangled flesh, spilled blood, the death of hopes and dreams of young men ... fuck war and fuck those who start them and profit from them.

I am grateful I am far, far away from it all.

[SirAndrewD]

War is always terrible. 

I feel horribly for the Russian men on the front lines that don't want to be there and are being put in harms way without adequate support and training. 

I hope they lose, but the tragedy of it is never lost on me.  It's not just my love of Russian history and respect for Russians, it's just general humanity.

But yes, I'm happy to see the breakthrough north of Lyman.  However, the worst of it is for the Russian fighting men, Putin has ordered a no steps back order, 15 years prison for anyone that retreats, is captured or surrenders and is repatriated.  So they're holding Lyman even though the situation is deteriorating around them.

I had said earlier that the wise choice was to fight a holding action at the Oskil and fall back to prepared positions at Svatove.  It seems some Russian commanders agreed and were replaced.

That's putting the entire north side of the line in danger.  Svatove is the new nexus for supplies for Lyman, and behind that is the real prize, Starbolisk. 

If the UAF takes Svatove they have a straight shot to Starbolisk, and they can cut all rail supply to Luhansk and put the oblast (which is about to be annexed) in danger.

This is where Putin could be said to consider tactical nukes...but consider this..

If he uses nukes now, on the offensive, the prevailing winds will take fallout over Kursk.  Thousands of Russians dying of radiation poisoning on top of an unpopular draft. 

Also, some experts have questioned the accuracy of tactical rockets being used against an enemy offensive.  They'll need to hit along the most ideal parts of the axis of advance, right between the phase lines, and to do that they may be forced to deploy via jet and not rocket.  That's a much more dangerous proposition and could lead to the horrific (for Russia) consequence of having a jet armed with nukes downed over enemy lines.

Weigh that with how Modi and Xi will respond to the use of nukes when considering if he's about to pull the trigger.