Author Topic: Russia's War Against Ukraine  (Read 164396 times)

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Offline FarAway Sooner

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4260 on: September 26, 2022, 06:41:39 PM »
Quote
Also, some experts have questioned the accuracy of tactical rockets being used against an enemy offensive.  They'll need to hit along the most ideal parts of the axis of advance, right between the phase lines, and to do that they may be forced to deploy via jet and not rocket.  That's a much more dangerous proposition and could lead to the horrific (for Russia) consequence of having a jet armed with nukes downed over enemy lines.

Weigh that with how Modi and Xi will respond to the use of nukes when considering if he's about to pull the trigger.

If I thought that Putin or his commanders were still making decisions rationally, I'd be a lot more confident in your assessment (qualified as it is, even).  War sucks, and just because I want one side to lose doesn't mean that I celebrate all the men and women who will have to die on both sides to make that happen.

Reading this news stories creates all sorts of confusing responses in me.  On the one hand, I know whom I want to win.  On the other hand, I get way too excited when I see them making progress.  Sometimes it feels to me more like I'm cheering for a sports team than I am watching soldiers bleed and die.

A lot of what I see these days feels like a really messed up version of wargamer's porn.

Offline Sir Slash

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4261 on: September 26, 2022, 07:57:02 PM »
Right there with you Sooner. Putin's been sowing the wind for years now and looks like he's now reaping the whirlwind. Too bad so many innocents on both sides have to die or be maimed for his vision of Greater Russia to be disassembled.
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Offline Skoop

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4262 on: September 26, 2022, 08:26:23 PM »
Quote
Also, some experts have questioned the accuracy of tactical rockets being used against an enemy offensive.  They'll need to hit along the most ideal parts of the axis of advance, right between the phase lines, and to do that they may be forced to deploy via jet and not rocket.  That's a much more dangerous proposition and could lead to the horrific (for Russia) consequence of having a jet armed with nukes downed over enemy lines.

Weigh that with how Modi and Xi will respond to the use of nukes when considering if he's about to pull the trigger.
's
If I thought that Putin or his commanders were still making decisions rationally, I'd be a lot more confident in your assessment (qualified as it is, even).  War sucks, and just because I want one side to lose doesn't mean that I celebrate all the men and women who will have to die on both sides to make that happen.

Reading this news stories creates all sorts of confusing responses in me.  On the one hand, I know whom I want to win.  On the other hand, I get way too excited when I see them making progress.  Sometimes it feels to me more like I'm cheering for a sports team than I am watching soldiers bleed and die.

A lot of what I see these days feels like a really messed up version of wargamer's porn.

You know, I feel where your coming from.  There is a some what disconnect because it's not Americans fighting and dying, but I am heavily vested in Ukraine winning.  And Ukraine's colors are the same colors as the defending superbowl Champs, so maybe that's a good sign.

Offline GroggyGrognard

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4263 on: September 26, 2022, 09:10:37 PM »
^Interesting optimistic conclusions, but not based in reality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/europe-s-challenge-to-survive-without-russian-gas-in-five-charts

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-edge-nord-stream-russian-gas-link-set-planned-shut-down-2022-07-10/


The question isn’t weather the EU can “survive” without Russian gas. The question is at what cost? The only possible way Russia has no economic leverage is if the EU is prepared to savage their economies and force their citizens to live without power.

"...but not based in reality." Says the person who posted a Jordan Peterson interview video. 

The EU won't have to force their citizens to live without power.

Europe’s rapid shift away from Russian energy is particularly painful for the Kremlin: the energy sector represents around a third of Russian GDP, half of all fiscal revenues and 60% of exports, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Energy revenues fell to their lowest level in over a year in August, and that was before Moscow cut off gas flows to Europe in the hope of strong-arming European leaders into lifting the sanctions. The Kremlin has since being forced to sell oil to Asia at considerable discounts.

The decline in energy exports means the country’s budget surplus has been heavily depleted.

“Russia knows that it has no leverage left in its energy war against Europe. Within two or three years, the EU will have gotten rid of its dependency on Russian gas,” the EIU’s Global Forecasting Director Agathe Demarais told CNBC.

This is a key reason why Russia has opted to cut off gas flows to Europe now, she suggested, with the Kremlin aware that this threat could carry far less weight in a few years’ time.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/path-to-oblivion-ukraine-military-gains-could-deepen-russias-economic-woes.html

But I suppose Agathe's assessment is "not based in reality", right?  ::)


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Offline Con

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4264 on: September 26, 2022, 09:11:22 PM »
I get how we are feeling conflicted - but what we feel ultimately doesnt matter a toss to what the Ukrainians are feeling about fighting for their right to exisit.  I found this clip pretty emotional and telling and honestly this is what the Russians need to be seeing.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1573646539188224002

Offline GDS_Starfury

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4265 on: September 26, 2022, 09:26:45 PM »
I've seen that video and  :bd:

this version of russia needs to be broken to its core and rebuilt.  its been a festering wound for 100 years thats crippled what should be one of the great countries of the world.  my opinion as a giddy warmonger is that russia needs to be defeated the same
way Germany and Japan were.
I also get, and have, the compassionate perspective that all these people are human beings with their lives interrupted in the most extreme ways possible.  but I have a side.  the russians conduct has my never again upbringing screaming.  so fuck those people!
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Offline SirAndrewD

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4266 on: September 26, 2022, 09:47:13 PM »
I get how we are feeling conflicted - but what we feel ultimately doesnt matter a toss to what the Ukrainians are feeling about fighting for their right to exisit.  I found this clip pretty emotional and telling and honestly this is what the Russians need to be seeing.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1573646539188224002

My only conflict is the pain I feel for Russians that are forced to fight and die in this pointless war. 

The defeat of Russia here is paramount.  Understanding Russian and Ukranian relations and the Russian opinion of "Potato Eating Malroos" in Ukraine is central to that. 

They did a genocide in the 30's.  It led to some Ukrainians deciding to side with the Nazis in WW2 because of what had been done to them because the felt the Germans were better masters.  There is evidence Putin and the current regime wants to do another ethnographic destruction once they win.

If Russia does take Ukraine as they wish, expect what we've historically seen them do the "Malroos".  Mass execution, starvation, ethnic erasure, banning of language, ect.

There's a horrible, fearful cost of not confronting this. 

It's easy to want to avoid a wider war.  We may want "Peace in our time" like the pseudo-intellectual Peterson wants. 

However, if we look at this and say "Putin is a man that is so unhinged he'll risk his relations with India and China, his allies and use nuclear weapons" then ask how else unhinged is Putin?

Is a man who is so insane to risk that one you want to appease? 

That's the thing that is hanging over the head.  Peterson and others offered no solution.  They hinted at it.  The solution they toyed with is "Let Putin have what he wants, withdraw military support, let the Ukrainians lose, hope it's enough"

If he's so mad he'll use nukes and a mass mobilization to steal a victory...why does anyone think that will satisfy him?

He's already said he considers the Baltic States Russia. They're in NATO.  He has territorial claims on Finland. He claims all Moldava.

If anyone thinks he's so unhinged to use nuclear weapons why do they think he'll be reasonable and not cross the NATO red line to the Baltic states if NATO shows any weakness to him?

These are things that give me pause.  They're rooted in historical precedent and what happens when strong coalitions show weakness to people like Peterson says are "Men who won't say no"

Does that mean there's a good or pleasant or ideal response?  No.  As a wargamer and historian who thankfully never had to fight but knows and works professionally with many who have I know that war is the WORST option. 

There are times when you have to choose between hells.  Putin...and Putin alone has put us in that world.  That's what monsters do.  That's where Peterson lost me quickly where he fast dismissed a comparison to Putin and Hitler.  Yes, there's a little Hitler in everyone, but your dismissal of that is...beyond naïve. 

I'm sorry, I didn't want to respond to anything Jordan Peterson said.  He's best left where he is most beloved, 4chan.  But his invocation here is hard to ignore despite my intellectual distaste in even dancing around him.



« Last Edit: September 26, 2022, 10:18:39 PM by SirAndrewD »

Offline GDS_Starfury

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4267 on: September 26, 2022, 10:54:41 PM »
 :o  kinda surprised this made it past the censors.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574491958101393411
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Offline Jarhead0331

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4268 on: September 26, 2022, 10:58:53 PM »
^Can you explain in a PM how Jordan Peterson is just a “pseudo-intellectual”? I’m genuinely curious how you come to that conclusion. I’m hard-pressed to imagine that a “pseudo-intellectual” could be one of the top 50 most cited clinical psychologists of all time. I ask for you to enlighten me in a PM since it is not really appropriate for the thread. Thanks.

I disagree with your conclusion of what may be Peterson’s solution to the situation. I didn’t get appeasement from the clip at all, rather, my take away is that the west has boxed itself into a dangerous position that is largely the result of its own making.
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Offline GDS_Starfury

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4269 on: September 26, 2022, 11:04:52 PM »
throws ball back to Andrew on first base...  O0
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Offline GDS_Starfury

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4270 on: September 26, 2022, 11:07:32 PM »
one could make a claim that dr oz and dr phil are two of the most viewed doctors in their field.
and yet both are  :2funny:
Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

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Offline SirAndrewD

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4271 on: September 27, 2022, 12:30:14 AM »
^Can you explain in a PM how Jordan Peterson is just a “pseudo-intellectual”? I’m genuinely curious how you come to that conclusion. I’m hard-pressed to imagine that a “pseudo-intellectual” could be one of the top 50 most cited clinical psychologists of all time. I ask for you to enlighten me in a PM since it is not really appropriate for the thread. Thanks.

I disagree with your conclusion of what may be Peterson’s solution to the situation. I didn’t get appeasement from the clip at all, rather, my take away is that the west has boxed itself into a dangerous position that is largely the result of its own making.

No need in a PM.

I say pseudo-intellectual because others have called him that due to his attempts to establish himself in a area beyond clinical psychology.

Also because he's been largely against the scientific consensus in his own field on gender identity.  He's also against the scientific consensus on fields outside his own like climate change.

I do think he's a remarkably intelligent and very coherent and eloquent person.   I don't think he's an expert in the field he's discussing.

My assignment of him as a "pseudo-intellectual" is in him constantly dabbling in fields that aren't his, like climate science, or geopolitics, and claiming to be an expert.

Listen, I have a degree in history, I'm a thesis I've written and a few hours short on my masters I intend to get, I'll get my PhD when I'm finally in a place where I'm financially able.  I've got my PhD backers, done my work my research, and it's on a subject we're talking about in this thread.

I wouldn't DARE to get my grill up in Roman History, or China, or Nuclear Physics, or Psychology.  I dabble in Religion because I was in seminary before I became an agnostic.

But Peterson plays in those fields past his.  That's where the "pseudo-intellectual" comes in.   

In my current job I do sales.  Man, I can sound as smart as he does but not quite be right.  That's been my issue with him.

And I didn't see a good solution by him.

Anyway, sorry no PM.  Hope you forgive me.  I actually respect your responses here Jarhead because I respect the horror of the situation.  I hate the destruction of lives here.  I just want my opinions public.

I do think every opinion here is valid and this thread is important.  As a historian this is a moment in the making.  We'll be discussing this and debating it hopefully for decades to come.

Offline SirAndrewD

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4272 on: September 27, 2022, 12:46:29 AM »
one could make a claim that dr oz and dr phil are two of the most viewed doctors in their field.
and yet both are  :2funny:

I've actually worked with both of them professionally in my field.  They are...

Anyway..

Offline Crossroads

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4273 on: September 27, 2022, 02:44:58 AM »

-snip-

Anyway, sorry no PM.  Hope you forgive me.  I actually respect your responses here Jarhead because I respect the horror of the situation.  I hate the destruction of lives here.  I just want my opinions public.

I do think every opinion here is valid and this thread is important.  As a historian this is a moment in the making.  We'll be discussing this and debating it hopefully for decades to come.

That was a good post and I'd like to reiterate the moment in history as well. Putin ordered Russia to wage a war against Ukraine with a genocidal intent. This is a fact. The purpose of denazifying Ukraine was nothing less of that either you as a Little Russian agree to live under Big Russians, or you're sent to filtration camps as a nazi. The Russian News Agency actually published a lengthy news item the day after invasion congratulating Putin for having unified Belarus and Ukraine to Russki Mir once and for all.

Here's the Anne Applebaum's article on The Atlantic with the source, and here's the waybackmachine article via Google Translate:

Quote
Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe of our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great price, yes, through the tragic events of the virtually civil war, because now brothers separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies are still shooting at each other - but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness by bringing together the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entire set of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians.

Each of us representing the democratic West in our individual countries were then faced with a reality that either we accept this, or we actually do something about it. Not an easy proposition by any means.
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Offline GDS_Starfury

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Re: Russia's War Against Ukraine
« Reply #4274 on: September 27, 2022, 07:23:20 AM »
seems theres been a bit of sabotage at the nordstream pipelines.

Toonces - Don't ask me, I just close my eyes and take it.

Gus - I use sweatpants with flannel shorts to soak up my crotch sweat.

Banzai Cat - There is no "partial credit" in grammar. Like anal sex. It's either in, or it's not.

Mirth - We learned long ago that they key isn't to outrun Star, it's to outrun Gus.

Martok - I don't know if it's possible to have an "anti-boner"...but I now have one.

Gus - Celery is vile and has no reason to exist. Like underwear on Star.