Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1685567044073488384

Ukrainian kitten trench assault training! (Note: could also count in the feel-good thread.  )

[JasonPratt]

There was a counterattack attempt at the UAF gains on the trenches, but, you guessed it, the Russians got pasted by their own mines and couldn't advance.

Step one: CRAP NO AAAAGGGHHH!

[SirAndrewD]

Because having maps of their own minefields would just not be russian (at this point in time anyway)

Hard to have maps with the ways the Russians have been laying mines.  The map is pretty much everything in around and between the trenches.

[JasonPratt]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/29/7413419/

The Ukrainian version of Pravda (which is Russian for "your milage may vary"), reports that Ukraine has obliterated the Chonhar bridge.

At the very least, local photo evidence from ground level shows wreckage blocking road traffic.

If this bridge is truly toasted, at least for military supply purposes, that might be the final main artery into Crimea for Russian supplies. At this point, the rail lines north of the Azov Sea, while not directly interdicted yet (YET!  ) are under artillery interdiction, and at least one bridge going south from there (near if not at Chonhar) was struck out at the start of the counter-offensive probing ops a few weeks ago.

[Sir Slash]

Right now the Russian High Command is aghast that their own mines would turn on them and blow-up their own troops. They are only supposed to blow-up the enemy! Putin will now have them all shot for Treason. And maybe the bombs are next? 

[JasonPratt]

Hard drone attack on Moscow last night!

Unfortunately I don't have links yet. I know there's dispute over whether the Uks did this, or if it's a Russian false flag on themselves to try to stir up Russian support for losing their war. 

Edited to add, Enforcer has some video this morning:

[Uberhaus]

Hard drone attack on Moscow last night!

Unfortunately I don't have links yet. I know there's dispute over whether the Uks did this, or if it's a Russian false flag on themselves to try to stir up Russian support for losing their war. 

Probably Ukraine.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66352765 

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned war is coming back to Russia after a drone attack on the capital Moscow.

Mr Zelensky said attacks on Russian territory were an "inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process" of the war between the two countries.

[JasonPratt]

Yep, Enforcer quotes him, too, in the video I added.

[Uberhaus]

Well, Ukraine must be doing okay with its offensive as the Russians have trotted out Medvedev again to threaten with the nukular stick, again.  https://ca.news.yahoo.com/russias-medvedev-wed-nuclear-weapon-120827390.html  Who's Medvedev you may ask, don't worry, just be impressed that he was lucid enough on a Sunday to make any statement.

Hopefully, should any such order be given the Russian military will forgo doctrine and act in a self-preserving manner as they mostly did with the Wagner rebellion at the end of June. 

[SirAndrewD]

Right now the Russian High Command is aghast that their own mines would turn on them and blow-up their own troops. They are only supposed to blow-up the enemy! Putin will now have them all shot for Treason. And maybe the bombs are next? 

If people weren't dying it'd be funny.

Reminds me of that movie from the 70's, Oh What a Lovely War.

[JasonPratt]

Step 1: shut down Ukrainian grain again.
Step 2: COMRADES OF THE WORLD, DO YOU NEED GRAIN, LIKE REALLY REALLY BADLY?!
Step 3: profit?
Step 5: win?

More specific details from Business Basics (plus the typical clickbaity title worth ignoring):

[Uberhaus]

Russia is fairly well entrenched in Africa, especially in the Sahel, but the failure of the Black Sea grain deal will really strain goodwill throughout the rest of the continent.  The Business Basics video briefly mentions that India has stopped exporting all but the most expensive grades of rice, Viet Nam has also stopped exporting its rice.  The Canadian bread basket is also having problems this year.  https://winnipeg.citynews.ca/2023/07/24/canadian-crop-farmers-ranching-neighbours-prairie-drought/

According to Agriculture Canada's most recent drought monitor report, 76 per cent of the country's agricultural landscape is either abnormally dry or experiencing moderate to severe drought this summer.

All of these factors will drive up the price of grain, and meat through increased fodder prices, throughout the world, but poorer countries will be the worst effected.  So it is in African states interests to push for the reinstatement of the Black Sea Grain deal or failing that push for a peace settlement as the video indicates.

The Russian presence in Africa does have a role in the war in Ukraine.  https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-putin-wagner-group-gold-smuggling-sanctions-ukraine-moscow-2023-7

The report, authored by the UK's foreign affairs committee, accuses the mercenary group of sneaking "significant" amounts of gold out of Sudan. That gold is then used in trade that's boosting Russia's economy, it added, despite the nation being targeted by western sanctions amid Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine.

"Wagner's gold-smuggling operations from Sudan are significant, with one calling them 'critical to Russia's ability to withstand significant sanctions deployed against it for its illegal invasion in Ukraine,'" the report said...
"The Wagner Group funds its brutal operations in part by exploiting natural resources in countries like the Central African Republic and Mali," the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson said in a statement in June. "The United States will continue to target the Wagner Groups' revenue streams to degrade its expansion and violence in Africa, Ukraine, and anywhere else."

In the Francophone parts of Africa, Russia enjoys popular support mostly due to propaganda distributed by an ex-Nazi Belgian communist politician.  What a mouthful.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64451376

Called Russosphère (Russian Sphere), typical posts accuse France of modern-day "colonialism", eulogise Vladimir Putin, and call the Ukrainian army "Nazis" and "Satanists", echoing the official Russian line.

They also heap praise on Russia's Wagner mercenaries - even sharing recruitment information should followers want to join up.

Experts say that such misinformation drives mistrust between African nations and the West, and contributes to a lack of support for Ukraine on the continent.

The article doesn't mention whether counter arguments to the Russian points are being broadcast to the French speaking African population.  The Canadian government with its utility in French and having had no colonial possessions in Africa could take the lead here in countering this disinformation. 

Finally, regarding Niger, ECOWAS (Economic Community of West Africa States has given the coup organizers seven days to reinstate the elected president.   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66353284 

A statement read out after the summit said that Ecowas had "zero tolerance" for coups.

The regional bloc would "take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order" if its demands were not met within a week.

"Such measures may include the use of force," and military chiefs are to meet "immediately" to plan for an intervention, the statement added.

Senegal, Ghana and Nigeria all field capable armies, but it would most likely be Senegal to do any possible  fighting.  "[ECOWAS] last sanctioned military intervention in 2017, when Senegalese troops were deployed to The Gambia to force long-serving ruler Yahya Jammeh to leave office after he refused to accept defeat in elections."  The Senegalese have a martial reputation, having gained it fighting the Germans in the First World War and in the Fall and Liberation of France. 
I'll refrain from speculating again on Russia's involvement in the coup, despite the crowds praising Russia, waving Russian flags and Prigozhin's comments.  However, should the junta refuse to reinstate the president due to fear of prosecution, greed, whatever; Wagner is in neighbouring Mali and close in the Central African Republic.  (Wagner didn't leave CAR, there was a troop rotation).  I won't bore you with speculation as to that scenario and the presence of French and US military.  In North Africa at least, only the insane make predictions about the future, maybe it is the same in the Sahel as the Sahara.  But, Wagner still wants revenge for what a small US force did to 300 Syrian and Russian forces in 2018, not to mention most of Russia and what is being said about US support for the war in Ukraine.  Certainly, it didn't go well for them last time, but the Russians are proving to be really slow learners.

[JasonPratt]

I was just thinking about the western attempts (and anyone else really) at trying to get onto the African demographic train, diplomatically and practically, as reported by the BusBas video, and thinking: well, yes, corruption is going to be a big problem, but it's a VASTLY much bigger problem than everyone but China thinks it is. That's why China's game has been to leverage the corruption in its favor by sending out those sharky loans and then taking control of resources when the loans default, for its Belt and Road (aka Silk Road) initiative which the western Build Back Better initiative was supposed to be competing against.

Now, it doesn't look like that's going to work for China, because fostering Godawful levels of corruption leaves you holding bags full of corruption when things fall apart! -- although, worth noting, that's a big Marxist revolutionary ideological concept: reduce everything to chaos so you can take over and, ahem, build back better. Somehow. Or just loot everything for the guys at the top, while the lootin' is good.  But by tautology that leaves rotting corruption at the base of everything you might try to build back.

See also, Lootin' Putin. 

[Uberhaus]

Microloans work well.

How do you get rid of the corrupt leaders though, especially if they are being backed up by Wagner like in Mali and the CAR?  That will be difficult and take time, sadly you can't send SF raids.  I don't think Prigozhin will go to Africa any time soon though, lest he be snatched in transit or have a visit from the SAS in a lonely place. 

The West is acting on the coup in Niger at least.  https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/niger-loses-aid-western-countries-condemn-coup-2023-07-29/   

The European Union and France have cut off financial support to Niger and the United States has threatened to do the same, after military leaders this week announced they had overthrown the democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum.

Ghana also had a diplomatic spat with Burkina Faso last December, calling them out on hiring Wagner mercenaries.  There still aren't Wagner mercenaries in BF.  Happenstance, coincidence? 

Wrong hemisphere?  Maybe, but cutting off smuggled wealth to Russia and ending Prigozhin's utility to Putin would be good things for Ukraine.

[Sir Slash]

Too many players. This is getting as complicated as a Mission Impossible movie.