Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

So, silver lining....?

???

We'll be able to ride eternal on the Fury Road, shiny and chrome.

[Gusington]

If we go by Toonces chart above, is the Ukraine war 'local' or 'regional'...approaching 'large scale'?

[Pete Dero]

If we go by Toonces chart above, is the Ukraine war 'local' or 'regional'...approaching 'large scale'?

It is a Special Military Operation and that is off the charts !

[Gusington]

Damn I forgot. I feel the world is teetering towards a large scale special military operation.

[Jarhead0331]

I find it pretty enlightening to read about Soviet and Russian nuclear weapons doctrine. From my reading of history, the United States had some maniacs dangerously close to the "red button" with significant influence and authority over launch. I think some of these cowboys played a pretty significant role in bringing the world close to the brink and in many instances, it was the Soviets who blinked, had a moment of clarity and caused a deescalation. For this, I think they deserve a lot of credit. 

It would be unfortunate if the trend of Russian rationality were to change.

[Jarhead0331]

A very interesting article on the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons use in Ukraine...

https://mwi.usma.edu/would-russia-use-a-tactical-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine/

[MengJiao]

If we go by Toonces chart above, is the Ukraine war 'local' or 'regional'...approaching 'large scale'?

  The Estonians seem to think its destabilizing if Russia isn't completely defeated:

Top Estonian official says Russia must face "full defeat" in Ukraine
From CNN's Jennifer Hansler

A top Estonian official on Wednesday called on the international community to do more to ensure a "full defeat" of Russia in Ukraine, saying that "anything short" of that "would be destabilizing and escalatory."

"Frankly, I cannot see a way for the Russians to really win on the battlefield in the classical sense," Secretary General of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jonatan Vseviov said in an interview with CNN in Washington, DC, ahead of the NATO Leaders Summit Thursday.

"The question is whether we will be able to actually defeat this aggression," he said. "If Putin comes away from this aggression with some gains, then he's likely to attempt this again -- against Ukraine, against others, he's likely to move ahead. So he needs to be absolutely defeated."
Vseviov also said NATO must prepare for the "new era" once the active phase of the war is over, calling for the military alliance to "build up military muscle in the east" to deny any future aggression.

He spoke of the need for NATO to make decisions about its defense posture for the "long haul," telling CNN that such discussions will take place this week but he expects major decisions will not be made until the NATO Summit in June, noting that such decisions require detailed military planning.

"It's clear that we cannot just continue with NATO with business as usual, with the same approach to defense and deterrence, NATO's relations to Russia that we've had since the annexation of Crimea," Vseviov said.

He said the alliance cannot take the risk that Russia "will miscalculate regarding collective defense," so a "small, tripwire force -- that international force that the Allies have had, for instance, in the Baltic states, is clearly no longer sufficient."

Vseviov, a former Estonian ambassador to the US, met with key officials at the White House, Defense and State Department during his trip to Washington.

He said he could not predict how long the war will last, but said he believes the Ukrainian military will be able to hold on "for a long time," but partner nations must continue to supply them with weaponry as the war wages on.

"The balance of military power clearly favors the aggressor, so we need to help the Ukrainians to hold on and do whatever is necessary to provide them with the relevant equipment and also humanitarian assistance," Vseviov said, noting that it's likely that "the level of brutality" unleashed by Russian forces against the civilian population "will go up dramatically" as the conflict continues.

Vseviov expressed skepticism about any diplomatic solutions proposed by Moscow.

"I think talk of this potential breakthrough in negotiations is a Russian game of smoke and mirrors to trap us or our to dissuade us -- it's a diplomatic trap to dissuade us from additional sanctions and additional military assistance," Vseviov said.

"I will not believe any deal before I see it actually implemented on the ground. I think the Russian strategy has not changed. It is still to destroy Ukraine and the idea of a sovereign Ukraine and then move on to fundamentally alter European security architecture," he added.

[Jarhead0331]

^Great...Estonia is like your drunk little friend with the really big mouth who goes and picks a fight with one of the biggest guys in the bar and then expects you to do the fighting for him. 

[GDS_Starfury]

More seriously, since Zelensky left himself no good room for help appeal as a neutral, his and Putin's best bet would be to work out a 'win' for each of them: officially cede those eastern republics (maybe also their new hinterlands), officially cede the Kuban (not all the Crimea), make a treaty not to join NATO or the EU perhaps since Putin is going to whine and complain about another NATO neighbor being a metaphysical threat to his regime's, uh, "Russia's" existence, as if NATO would use the Ukraine for invading him (which is how he thinks since he'd use the Ukraine that way).

why would Zelensky what to appear to be neutral at this point?
why would he give up anything you mentioned?
what lense are you viewing this conflict through?

[Toonces]

That's a great article, Jarhead.

[MengJiao]

^Great...Estonia is like your drunk little friend with the really big mouth who goes and picks a fight with one of the biggest guys in the bar and then expects you to do the fighting for him. 

  It's a strategy, I guess.

[GDS_Starfury]

Ukrainian Farmers market  :bd:

[Gusington]

^They washed all the mud of them too.

[JasonPratt]

More seriously, since Zelensky left himself no good room for help appeal as a neutral, his and Putin's best bet would be to work out a 'win' for each of them: officially cede those eastern republics (maybe also their new hinterlands), officially cede the Kuban (not all the Crimea), make a treaty not to join NATO or the EU perhaps since Putin is going to whine and complain about another NATO neighbor being a metaphysical threat to his regime's, uh, "Russia's" existence, as if NATO would use the Ukraine for invading him (which is how he thinks since he'd use the Ukraine that way).

why would Zelensky what to appear to be neutral at this point?
why would he give up anything you mentioned?
what lense are you viewing this conflict through?

1.) I didn't say he would want to appear to be neutral at this point. But I didn't word it well: I meant that Ukraine's insistence on neutrality previously, makes it harder for them to get help now. Surely that's not controversial; that's just an observation of what's happening and not happening as a result of their diplomatic appeals.

2.) Why would Ukraine give up areas the Russians have been occupying and controlling now for years? Realpolitik to de-escalate and stop the deaths and destruction. I even suggested he'd angle to get back the western Crimea from Russian withdrawal agreement. I kind of doubt Putin would agree to that -- so ponging back over to why would Putin give up anything he has taken at all, including in this invasion -- but that's what negotiation is for. Granted, negotiation with mafia thugs isn't going to be a great deal.

3.) From the lens that Putin is a mafia thug, and can be expected to act that way. I'm as sorry as anyone that this is true; and again I can't believe that "lens" would be controversial. But unless world powers are prepared to remove him and his group from power, or even only(!) to ally directly with the Ukraine as co-belligerants on the ground in defense -- which no one is, with his hand on practically all the nuclear triggers on Earth, directly and indirectly -- then Zelensky has to make hard choices about what's best for the people who elected him into power. One of those choices is to work out an offramp for each of them to have a meaningful win of some sort.

I'm sure not saying that because I love the super-corrupt government of the Ukraine, much less out of love for Putin's government. I don't want either of them to remain. But neither can I say I trust the Russian mafia to be able to stop Putin (even if they're willing by now), and who else in Russia is going to get that done? -- Putin's loyal corps of elite military units that he's keeping close to his vest? Also unlikely.

Either someone chooses to change the constraints Ukraine is operating under; or we hope the constraints get changed by accident somehow; or Zelensky uses the leverage his epic defense buys, to try for a result he and Putin can both accept.

Zelensky has power over only one of those options himself. And stalemate is only a potential stepping-stone to a win, not a win condition itself.

Even a negotiated settlement will look worse for Putin ultimately than Stalin's loss against Finland; because in Finland's case, Stalin at least demonstrated that the Red Army could be expected to achieve its goals (even if behind the original schedule) against odds deemed impossible by every other military on the planet, at any cost. Every other minor nation on his border without the Mannerheim Line took note, and behaved accordingly. Putin gets only what he already had, just more formally, and looks like a wimpy sort of bully in the process -- but those are legitimate win conditions for him, even if sucky ones, and he can spin a sucky win as a win by propaganda.

Sure, I'd like to see the Ukrainians (as a people) pull an Israeli crushing defense and smite their enveloping enemies so badly that there's nothing left for their enemies to conventionally threaten them with -- and incidentally, despite their problems I'm VASTLY much more on the side of the Israeli government than I am Ukraine's (largely due to some of my 'lenses', I admit. ;) ). But Putin's Russia isn't a loose Arab League; and his unconventional continuation options aren't theirs either.

[FarAway Sooner]

I think the Estonian envoy quoted above is speaking accurately.  Of course, it's easy for the Estonian envoy to say that, when most of the costs incurred for defeating Putin like that would be on Ukraine's dime.

I don't think that the West in general, or NATO in specific, can go back to the status quo that we had in January of 2022.  The Russian government and the US government signed a treaty in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.  Specific language excerpted from that agreement, per the Fount of All Wisdom, Wikipedia:

The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

Even ever after Russia signed one treaty, and even after Ukraine conceded all their nukes and didn't apply for NATO membership, it didn't do them any good.  If I were Zelenskiyi, I would much prefer to cede parts of Ukraine to Russia but have the freedom to join NATO.  Otherwise, you're just inviting Putin to rebuild his military more effectively and make sure he did the job right again in three to five years.

Even if Russia is able to ultimately conquer Kyiv and occupy much of Ukraine, the Russians have signed themselves up for a long, dirty bloodbath that won't end well for Russia or the Russian army.  Not only have the people of Ukraine made it clear that they will fight foreign invaders, but they did so BEFORE the Russians adopted a strategy of pounding their cities into rubble just to gain leverage in negotiations.

Russia will probably not pay as dearly for this aggression as the citizens of Ukraine already have paid for this.  But Russia will pay.