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#51

Tabletop AARs / Re: Gazala: Another Plan

Last post by MengJiao - December 13, 2023, 10:12:53 AM

Afternoon of the 27th and 21 Panzer reaches the middle of the map.  This is moderately perilous since the
airwar rolls have not been kind to the Axis and 3/4 of the map is under allied air superiority and 21 PZ has left the only safe zone: Bir Hakiem (which includes the Bir Haliem airfield but not the fort):

Morning of the 28th -- this is where things start to go very wrong for the Axis: first their supply problems start to increase, second the weather is likely to be worse and third, if the allies don't start destroying themselves the necessay battle of attrition is not likely to move fast enough.  The real crux of the problem is the two huge supply advantages the allies have -- even with dumps that Rommel and co can use -- it is the tight net of roads radiating from El Adem.  Historically, Rommel got there (El Adem) after the allies wrecked their armor.  In the game (as could have happened in reality if Auckenlek had intervened and or Richtie had grasped the situation) the allies have the option of not throwing away their armor.  they have more AT-capable weapons than the Axis does and they can wait for the Axis to get in too deep and then trap or annihilate a large Axis force.  But they should do it far back and use their artillery to produce the necessary bang to do the work.  The 160 Grant tanks can hold, but not crush the Axis

But here is the supply problem -- the two main roads out of El Adem that Rommel and Co have to cut or overwhelm:

#52

Tabletop AARs / Re: Gazala: Another Plan

Last post by MengJiao - December 11, 2023, 01:59:42 PM

Good thing I managed rule change 1 or the DAK would be a bit beat up after attacking Bir Hakeim.  Anyway its the morning of the 27th and I think Rommel and Co are doing better than last time.  The air war is easier to run but harder on the Axis at the beginning.  Bir Hakiem is in Allied air space at the start hence the mess in attacking it early.  But things are generally going well.  90 light is on the road to El Adem and the panzer divisions are going to avoid driving between the two allied armored divisions.  The supply dump thing seems to be working as planned and maybe Rommel and Co will do okay this time.  Here's a snapshot from pretty far south:

Afternoon of the 27th and 21 Panzer reaches the middle of the map.  This is moderately perilous since the
airwar rolls have not been kind to the Axis and 3/4 of the map is under allied air superiority and 21 PZ has left the only safe zone: Bir Hakiem (which includes the Bir Haliem airfield but not the fort):

[The Aftermath of the War with France]

#53

Digital Gaming AARs / Re: All the colors of the RAIN...

Last post by Tripoli - December 09, 2023, 02:04:40 PM

The Aftermath of the War with France[/b]

The aftermath of the war found the US with greatly expanded dominions in West Africa, Asia and the South Pacific.  Allied with Russia and Spain, the US also had good relations with all other nations.  The one exception to this was Japan, who with a relationship score of 4, the US had a peaceful, but wary relationship with.  However, being allied with Russia and Spain also created problems.  These alliances meant that consideration needed to be given to whether either of them could drag the US into a war.  ONI was tasked with evaluating the possibilities of war and  concluded that Spain had excellent relationships with all other powers, including surprisingly even France for whom it had been actively hostile against only two months earlier.  Consequentially, it was unlikely to drag the US into a war.  Russia, however, while having generally good relationships with most nations, had a strained relationship with Japan (5) and to a lesser extent Great Britain (4).  Accordingly, ONI evaluated that the next most likely war would be against Japan, as it had increasingly strained relationships and adjacent territory to both the US and Russia.  The good news was that  a US-Japanese was would likely not take place for approximately 2 years at the earliest. (see image below for the relations scores of the various nations.)


In terms of threat, while smaller, Japan is a near peer competitor in a war against the US.  It has almost an identical fleet tonnage to the US.  Although it has only four dreadnoughts buildings compared the five (5) under construction for the US, its forces are concentrated in the Pacific, while the US has to spread its forces out over the globe. And while its fleet is less technologically developed, and its budget is 62% of the US but Japan's ability to concentrate its full effort in the Pacific, mitigates to a large extent these disadvantages.   If Japan were to ally with a European power, it could prove to be a very dangerous adversary.

   The most dangerous threat to the US remains Great Britain.  Compared to the United States, it has more advanced technology, has a 40% greater budget, and 2.16 times the tonnage, and has six (6)  dreadnoughts completed and another six (6)  under construction. However, its battleships average around 20,000 tons, so they are somewhat smaller and likely less capable than the US dreadnoughts.  However, it possesses large numbers of well developed bases throughout the world, allowing the Royal Navy to easily threaten US interests anywhere.   Especially dangerous would be an alliance with Japan (as happened historically from 1902-23), as this would give Japan superiority in the Pacific, while freeing Great Britain to act against the US throughout the world. And with a current UK-Japan  relationship score of "0", such an alliance is possible.


Directly meeting a British threat with large battlefleet is not possible.  The ending of the war with France has slashed the naval budget to $253,000/year, with the current expenses running at $12,000/month over budget.  Cuts will have to be made.  Additionally, the unrest level of "2" in the US population should be lowered.  A reduced budget will help lower this unrest level. 

These budgetary realities mean that the USN will be able to build only 3 capital ships at a time, although it might be able to build four smaller dreadnoughts, albeit at a cost in capability.  However, a larger fleet means increased tensions, even if it is less capable.  Therefore, the US will continue to build three large, very capable and expensive battleship at a time to help close the gap with Great Britain, and maintain a superiority over Japan.  Meanwhile, any extra funds will continue to go into raiders, torpedo boats and submarines to execute a "Jeune Ecole" strategy in the event of a war with Great Britain.

While the US shipbuilding strategy is set for 3 battleships under construction at all times, there remains the problem of the current budget deficit, which is running at $12,000/month.  Scrapping all the 400-ton destroyers and putting into mothballs all the 500-ton destroyers reduces the deficit by only $1000/month.  The USS NORTH CAROLINA will be completed in 2 months, which will save $2500/month.  However, the only other way to save money is to scrap and mothball some of the older battleship and cruiser hulls.  Some, such as the 1899 ROCHESTER class, cost over $300/month to maintain, so they will also be scrapped. Finally, the USS WYOMING will have its construction delayed for two months, temporarily defraying $5400 in expenses until the USS NORTH CAROLINA is completed.

[Losses are SS Tautog, DD Conyngham and DD Patterson and AVD William B. Preston and AMc Crossbill]

#54

Digital Gaming AARs / The Shortest-Lived Long AAR of...

Last post by Tripoli - December 07, 2023, 10:17:00 AM

Damnit, Starfury!  I'm blaming this on you.  For seven years, I've had the idea of doing this AAR, but decided not to because of time issues.  Then you post the photo of the USS Cassin and USS Downes in drydock on 7 December 1941......   I strongly doubt I'll be unable to finish this, but here goes. The only good thing about this is it will allow me to accomplish my lifetime ambition of firing Douglas MacArthur in 1941.....

The Pearl Harbor attack wasn't too bad. No BBs lost (yet).   A lot of aircraft damaged on the ground, but nothing too bad.  Here's the butcher's bill...
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M2 Zero: 2 damaged
      A6M2 Zero: 5 destroyed by flak
      B5N2 Kate: 26 damaged
      B5N2 Kate: 3 destroyed by flak
      D3A1 Val: 25 damaged
      D3A1 Val: 5 destroyed by flak
 
Allied aircraft losses
      PBY-5 Catalina: 119 damaged
      PBY-5 Catalina: 8 destroyed on ground
      B-17D Fortress: 49 damaged
      B-17E Fortress: 14 damaged
      B-18A Bolo: 45 damaged
      B-18A Bolo: 5 destroyed on ground
      P-40B Tomahawk: 51 damaged
      P-40B Tomahawk: 4 destroyed on ground
      F4F-3 Wildcat: 15 damaged
      F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed on ground
      SBD-1 Dauntless: 38 damaged
      SBD-1 Dauntless: 2 destroyed on ground
      O-47A: 14 damaged
      O-47A: 1 destroyed on ground
      A-20A Havoc: 17 damaged
      A-20A Havoc: 3 destroyed on ground
      R3D-2: 1 damaged
      R3D-2: 1 destroyed on ground
      P-36A Mohawk: 24 damaged
      P-36A Mohawk: 1 destroyed on ground
      C-33: 2 damaged
 
Allied Ships
      DM Gamble
      BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 6,  on fire,  heavy damage
      BB Maryland, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 4,  on fire,  heavy damage
      CM Oglala, Bomb hits 1
      BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 7,  on fire
      BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 4,  on fire,  heavy damage
      BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
      BB California, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 3,  on fire,  heavy damage
      BB Nevada, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 3,  on fire,  heavy damage
      CA San Francisco, Bomb hits 1
      CL Raleigh, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
      DD Patterson, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      CL St. Louis, Bomb hits 1
      BB Arizona, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2,  on fire,  heavy damage
      DD Conyngham, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      DD MacDonough, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
      SS Tautog, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      CL Phoenix, Bomb hits 1
      AV Curtiss, Bomb hits 1
Losses are SS Tautog, DD Conyngham and DD Patterson and AVD William B. Preston and AMc Crossbill The base isn't too badly damaged: Airbase hits 43,Airbase supply hits 4,Runway hits 90, Port hits 19, Port fuel hits 1, Port supply hits 1. Looks like the IJN made the same mistake regarding not going after the fuel farm.

In other news, some Nells did a bombing raid on Wake Island.  VMF-211 intercepted with 4 F4F-3s, shooting down 1 in exchange for all the USMC aircraft being damaged.  Midway Island was ineffectually shelled by a IJN light cruiser.

In the Philippines, Clark AFB was hit, but only by 54 bombers, which didn't do too much damage.  A follow-on raid achieved similar results. Davo was hit by carrier-based aircraft, causing the loss of the seaplane tender USS William D. Preston.

In Malay,  The HMS PoW and REPULSE were hit by multiple waves of Nells and Betty bombers.  However, the 453 Sqn (RAF) flying the Buffalo aircraft were relatively effective, shooting down or damaging 7 Nells, in exchange for one torpedo hit on the HMS PRINCE OF WALES.  However, a subsequent raid was more successful.  Despite losing 8 Nells or Betty destroyed, and another 10 damaged, the Japanes put 2 more torpedoes into the PoW and 1 into the REPULSE.  They are now combat ineffective, and the only question is whether I'll be able to save them.

  The RAF base at Alor Star   was hit, destroying or damaging most of the Blenheim bombers on the ground.  Similarly, Georgetown was hit, but the RAF Buffalos shot down 3 Ki-21 Sallys, disrupt  Kota Bharu was invaded, with Malaya-based Hudson bombers ineffectually attacking the IJN fleet.  Hong Kong was bombed, but little to no damage was done.


The Sasebo 1st SNLF and 24th JAAF AF Bn CAPTURE Batan Island, so it looks like the Japanese will shortly be going after Luzon.

#55

Tabletop AARs / Re: Gazala: Another Plan

Last post by MengJiao - December 06, 2023, 02:48:51 PM

Well, my first plan didn't work so it's now time to mod the game a bit and include some explicit supply.
So here's the problem: in the actual battle, Rommel's initial move around to the south essentially failed
due to major supply issues...hence the Cauldron Battle etc.  The game scenario assumes he could have had infinite supply and not bothered with being trapped against the minefields etc. etc.  So time for some explicit supply -- until Rommel gets back on the regular supply net (or even after that) he runs on:
1) the "four days" of ever-dwindling inherent supply (with ever-increasing ops point problems) or
2) has his HQs burn through) either his own supply dumps or captured dumps
3) these options exist for the Allies as well should they become isolated from their supply net (as at
Bir al Hakeim)
4) So lots of dumps (big ones in Tobruk and at the railhead).

And the game is Compass GAmes The Fall of Tobruk

Also, rules changes: 1) units can recover morale
2) tank retrieval happens quickly or not at all
3) which leaves the wreck markers as a way of moving big tall stacks of units off the board
4) air war -- using the basic/solitaire rules since the air war is a lot of work for not much impact

Good thing I managed rule change 1 or the DAK would be a bit beat up after attacking Bir Hakeim.  Anyway its the morning of the 27th and I think Rommel and Co are doing better than last time.  The air war is easier to run but harder on the Axis at the beginning.  Bir Hakiem is in Allied air space at the start hence the mess in attacking it early.  But things are generally going well.  90 light is on the road to El Adem and the panzer divisions are going to avoid driving between the two allied armored divisions.  The supply dump thing seems to be working as planned and maybe Rommel and Co will do okay this time.  Here's a snapshot from pretty far south:

#56

Tabletop AARs / Gazala: Another Plan

Last post by MengJiao - November 30, 2023, 12:05:20 PM

Well, my first plan didn't work so it's now time to mod the game a bit and include some explicit supply.
So here's the problem: in the actual battle, Rommel's initial move around to the south essentially failed
due to major supply issues...hence the Cauldron Battle etc.  The game scenario assumes he could have had infinite supply and not bothered with being trapped against the minefields etc. etc.  So time for some explicit supply -- until Rommel gets back on the regular supply net (or even after that) he runs on:
1) the "four days" of ever-dwindling inherent supply (with ever-increasing ops point problems) or
2) has his HQs burn through) either his own supply dumps or captured dumps
3) these options exist for the Allies as well should they become isolated from their supply net (as at
Bir al Hakeim)
4) So lots of dumps (big ones in Tobruk and at the railhead).

And the game is Compass GAmes The Fall of Tobruk

Also, rules changes: 1) units can recover morale
2) tank retrieval happens quickly or not at all
3) which leaves the wreck markers as a way of moving big tall stacks of units off the board
4) air war -- using the basic/solitaire rules since the air war is a lot of work for not much impact

#57

Tabletop AARs / Re: Gazala: the Big Plan for t...

Last post by MengJiao - November 29, 2023, 05:50:51 AM

Morning of the 29th -- the weather clears and the Axis air will start hitting.  It turns out the crucial supply nexus is where the north-south trigh leaves the Trigh Capuzzo.  If DAK can supply itself through there, it can threaten 30 Corps on a very wide front.
Meanwhile, the Italian 20 Corps (Ariete and Trento) are heading north to support the attack along the coastal road.

DAK managed to hold the supply nexus open, but lost around 50 tanks doing it, but they should be able to repair most of them.  The dust storms are starting up again, though not as bad as on the 28th.  Ariete and Triest are attacking near the coast.  Air support may be spotty because of the haze and dust.  Allied artillery is well-simulated in this game.  In the real battle it was pretty effective, firing 20K 25-pounder shells a day for a month or so.  The crucial moment for the Allies was probably when they got a lot of AP/ops points for their two frontline infantry divisions on day one.  Saving them and their artillery has saved them so far from being overwhelmed.

#58

Tabletop AARs / Re: Gazala: the Big Plan for t...

Last post by MengJiao - November 28, 2023, 03:33:33 PM

Everybody was pretty careful -- bringing up artillery and stuff -- on the 27th, but then the weather closed in with huge dust storms, the Khamsin -- and things got rough.  Basically, the decidedly crappy British Army 32nd Tank Bde overran the Italian 17th Division while 101 (Trento) was rescuing part of 15 Panzer and not watching out after the 17th which is in a different corps anyway.  With the dust storms there's not much air action and that puts a damper on the Axis more than the Allies at this point, especially once the Allies bring up their artillery and heavy AA/AT.

Morning of the 29th -- the weather clears and the Axis air will start hitting.  It turns out the crucial supply nexus is where the north-south trigh leaves the Trigh Capuzzo.  If DAK can supply itself through there, it can threaten 30 Corps on a very wide front.
Meanwhile, the Italian 20 Corps (Ariete and Trento) are heading north to support the attack along the coastal road.

#59

Tabletop AARs / Re: Gazala: the Big Plan for t...

Last post by MengJiao - November 27, 2023, 08:51:54 AM

Morning of the 27th -- 15 Panzer is on some ridges surrounded by 8th Army Armoured Brigades.  Maybe that's a good thing?

Everybody was pretty careful -- bringing up artillery and stuff -- on the 27th, but then the weather closed in with huge dust storms, the Khamsin -- and things got rough.  Basically, the decidedly crappy British Army 32nd Tank Bde overran the Italian 17th Division while 101 (Trento) was rescuing part of 15 Panzer and not watching out after the 17th which is in a different corps anyway.  With the dust storms there's not much air action and that puts a damper on the Axis more than the Allies at this point, especially once the Allies bring up their artillery and heavy AA/AT.
In other news, I found a better translation of Bir al-Hakiem is "Well of Wisdom" (and not probably well of the Dog or well of the old man).  Given where Bir al-Hakiem is, Wisdom seems like a more likely attribute than dogs or old men.
And why do I say that?  Well the well is the last well on the minor trails into the interior.  The big roads go by to the east on easier terrain, but there's no wells on those roads.

#60

Tabletop AARs / Re: Gazala: the Big Plan for t...

Last post by MengJiao - November 26, 2023, 01:33:17 PM

But here is the Axis plan: don't go way around to the south, keep supplies simple.  Destroy 50 div and cut off the 1st South African:

  Afternoon of the 26th:  It's a very good plan, but the Allies have been rolling some harsh numbers on the old Axis:  Air-to-air -- even slightly ahead on pure luck.  Then on Division activations: all high when they mattered.  True, a lot of Allied armor hasn't gotten moving, but 50 Div did some fancy footwork and survived while clobbering many an intrepid Italian.  1st South African is still going places and the Free French drove back a thrust by Ariete (whilst Ariete was under direct 21 Panzer command).

Morning of the 27th -- 15 Panzer is on some ridges surrounded by 8th Army Armoured Brigades.  Maybe that's a good thing?