Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Sir Slash]

Is Medvedev not allowed to have an opinion? What about Putin? The Wagner guy, or even Osama Bin Laden if he were still alive? Let the Ass-Hats give their opinions and everyone will see proof of their Ass-Hatedness.

[GDS_Starfury]

ya, elmo has been a shitshow.  I dont mind, and actively look for, differences of opinion.  what I dont like, want or need is the constant stream of whack-a-doodle nutcases being platformed 24/7.

[FarAway Sooner]

Elon is too busy looking at himself in the mirror to notice the rest of the Universe.  But apparently a lot of us are looking at him, too!

My sense is that all war is horrible.  In any war, both sides are losing, but if I had to guess, I think the Russians are losing more quickly than the Ukrainians.  The notion that either side is winning in the literal sense of the word is grotesque.

[FarAway Sooner]

It is curious that the hole blown in the ground is apparently 15 meters wide and 2 meters deep.  How exactly does one make a hole that big and not obliterate the train cars?  There must be a lot of coked-up meth-head Ukrainians in Crimea right now, as Sir Pug suggests.

[FarAway Sooner]

I'm not sure if the articles explanation of the data is accurate, but Forbes does some interesting analysis of Oryx data around Ukrainian casualties to push forward an interesting bit of speculation:  Ukrainian heavy artillery seems to not be moving nearly as much as the lighter artillery, and it's paying the price for it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2023/05/14/russia-hits-immobile-and-predictable-m-777-krab-and-m-109-howitzers-hard/?sh=4beae3246f19

The article seems balanced and fair.  I just wonder if it's accurate?

[Crossroads]

Thoughts on what "winning" in Ukraine means by @warinthefuture.

For Ukraine, among other considerations, it means "winning a just peace", that would also include a military defeat for Russian forces.

A good read. Frozen conflict indeed could be interpreted as a minor victory for Russia. Godspeed for the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive.


https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1659080754423386113

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1659080754423386113.html

[GDS_Starfury]

I want!

[Gusington]

Any time is a good time?

[GDS_Starfury]

F-16s for Ukraine!   

[Gusington]

Ok but only because you asked nicely.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65649471

[SirAndrewD]

Ship over copies of the DCS Viper module now so they can get to work.

[Staggerwing]

I would not be surprised to hear that some Ukrainian pilots have quietly been training on F-16s for months already.

[FarAway Sooner]

I wish the Ukrainians all the success in the world with the F-16s.  I hope that the battlefield juice is worth the logistical squeeze.  F-16s take A LOT of baby-sitting and need to be flown from very well maintained airfields.

I suspect that this announcement is probably more important for the future of the UAF, than it is for the next 6-12 months of combat.  The F-16 is a good plane, it's in plentiful supply, and it will serve the Ukrainians well for the next 10-15 years. 

But, whether it's used in an air superiority role to try to challenge Russian control of the skies near the front lines or in a ground attack role to go after Russian targets on the ground, it's unclear how big a dent it will make in the Russian ground-based SAM systems or in the Russian air force in the next year.

[DetCord]

I'd like to preface that I understand the Russian position in all of this. Yeah, I understand how that sounds. Russia is a country of both mass fatalism and mass paranoia, which explains their AIDS epidemic, suicide rate, mortality rate, infant mortality rate, complete lack of babies, and average age with regards to deaths. If you didn't know, Ethopian men have a longer lifespan than Russian men. The Russian people will be gone as an ethnic group within two generations. And by gone I mean relegated to obscurity.

IMHO, Putin invaded Ukraine in an attempt to not only seize control and or install a friendly government, but to remove a potential Ukrainian NATO membership (which we've pushed for a decade), and to close the Bessarabian Gap, a historical invasion route into Russia. Remember, Russians are paranoid and they have measure to be so as they've been invaded throughout history via these routes. This doesn't mean I forgive their horrific crimes in Ukraine, and they are horrific, it is simply that I understand their position when it comes territory and geopolitics. We've (western nations) been pushing and pushing up and until the very frontier of Russia an alliance they see as aggressive (it is) and adsorbing former Soviet buffer states and dumping right on their front door. This would be akin to China seeking and finding an alliance in Canada or simply adsorbing (annexing) them. We'd probably feel very different about that Stateside.       

Does this forgive the Russians for the mass rape, mass murder, or mass theft of Ukraine? Absolutely not. It's nothing different than what they did in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Austria, or Germany during WWII. It's nothing different than what they did in CZ in '68, to the Afghans in '80, the Chechen's in '94, or Syria in '15. Rape is a weapon for them and Russians love to rape. They love it. They revel in it.

A group of us watched the drone footage from Babai where Russian Soldiers mass-raped a group of little girls (9-13yo) to death. And yes, most were raped to death. Coming across the bodies of little girls stripped naked, bruised, blood soaked thighs, hands bound in R-E tape made me nauseous. Villagers (men) with pipes shoved in their asses wrapped in concertina wire. I despise them. I fuckin' hate them. I hate the Russians with all my heart and I've never hated anyone before, ever. 

I wouldn't know where to begin with regards to charities. There are so many of them out there and so many of them are scams. These range from medical supplies, medicine, food, gear for the troops, you name it. If you find one, make sure to do your due diligence.

[Sir Slash]

I have long thought and hoped that once the last of the old Soviet generation in Russia died-off that the younger generation would be more open-minded, positive and peace-loving. Remember, Russians have NEVER been truly free in their entire history. Their biggest impediment to that right now is Putin and his support from the Money Men as well as the last of the Old Guard from the former Soviet system who still believe that was when they were at their greatest strength and power in the world. A charismatic, Zelensky-type figure could revive the Russian state and lead them into a new era of greatness. And hopefully Peace.