Venezuela may try to grab over half of Guyana

[Uberhaus]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67635646

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is plunging ahead with its plans to take over Essequibo, the oil-rich region controlled by neighbouring Guyana.

He has ordered the state oil company to issue extraction licences there and proposed the National Assembly pass a bill making the area part of Venezuela.
Guyana has put its defence forces on full alert in response.
...
On Sunday, more than 95% of voters in Venezuela's referendum approved establishing a new Venezuelan state in the region. While only two million people voted - making up roughly 10% of eligible voters - Venezuela's claim to Essequibo enjoys broad support in the country.
The country has long maintained that an 1899 decision to award the 159,500-sq-km (61,600-sq-mile) region to the UK was unfair.

Hopefully, this is just bluster on Maduro's part, but with 125 to 150 thousand active military personnel (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/venezuela/#military-and-security), it wouldn't face too much opposition from Guyana's "approximately 3,000 active-duty military personnel (2023)"  (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/guyana/#military-and-security).  With Venezuela's economy in tatters, grabbing the petroleum rich region would be just another country robbing another.  There is no word of movement of Venezuela's military forces though. 

Happy Holidays for a great 2023 year!

[Gusington]

Been reading about this. Invasions are all the rage again 

[Uberhaus]

Been reading about this. Invasions are all the rage again 

Shall we go with "those who forget their history..." or just "war, war never changes". 

[Gusington]

Why not both?

[GDS_Starfury]

is this part of russias play to stalemate with Ukraine and keep what they've got?

[Windigo]

is this part of russias play to stalemate with Ukraine and keep what they've got?

Nope

[GDS_Starfury]

is this part of russias play to stalemate with Ukraine and keep what they've got?

Nope

taken from wiki as a shallow dive:

Venezuela remains as one of Russia's most important trading and military allies in Latin America (after Brazil), making a strong bond in the bilateral relations between the two nations. Relations have become increasingly closer with Venezuela, the most recent visible results of which being Venezuela becoming the third nation to officially recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Russia approving a $2 billion loan to Venezuela for arms in September 2009

[nelmsm]

I would have to believe you would see intervention by several countries if Venezuela tries to actually invade that part of Guyana.  After all it was a British Protectorate at one time and surely the US would not sit idly by and Brazil would also have an interest I think.

[W8taminute]

This is a bit concerning.  I seem to recall earlier this year or late last year that Russian and Chinese troops would participate in an exercise with Venezuela.  I also heard rumors of some units remaining in Venezuela.

If Russia is friends with both Venezuela and Brazil and both are mobilizing troops near the disputed Guyana how could Russia approve of this action or use this in relation with Ukraine?

[Windigo]

If this is indeed another proxy war; Brazil is more than up to the task of thwarting that crazy bastard's ambitions... with a modest amount of American backing.

Venezuela's armed forces are not up snuff in any way shape or form.

[al_infierno]

The usual suspects over on Twitter are now throwing their clout behind Venezuela on the grounds that Guyana is backed by the United States, therefore Venezuela are the good guys.  The hypocrisy to support imperialism is astounding.

[Uberhaus]

is this part of russias play to stalemate with Ukraine and keep what they've got?

Nope

taken from wiki as a shallow dive:

Venezuela remains as one of Russia's most important trading and military allies in Latin America (after Brazil), making a strong bond in the bilateral relations between the two nations. Relations have become increasingly closer with Venezuela, the most recent visible results of which being Venezuela becoming the third nation to officially recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Russia approving a $2 billion loan to Venezuela for arms in September 2009

In dispassionate thinking, if this was a wargame, I would think my opponent was trying to wear my resources down, even cause my society's failure by overspending militarily and neglecting domestic issues.  Of course, this isn't a game and consequences are very real.  Intuitively, I feel that Russia and its allies are acting in concert to break the West, starting with the continuing support for Ukraine. However, without any clear evidence, there is no logical analysis to support such a belief.

As for Guyana's Commonwealth ally, the Guyanese are not UK citizens like Falklanders, the UK military is a pale comparison to its 1982 self, its military stocks are somewhat depleted and there may be a confidence vote on the Prime Minister's leadership shortly.

A problem for Venezuela attacking is that the routes to Guyana go through Brazil.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67645018

However any military incursion by Venezuela will be logistically challenging, Venezuelan soldiers would need to pass through Brazilian territory if they enter Essequibo because of challenging terrain elsewhere.

However, as Venezuela has paratroopers (Hugo Chavez was one) and Guyana has no fighter aircraft and only 24 Strela-2 Manpads, seizing an airhead is in the realm of the possible for a coup de main.

Hopefully, my Christmas gift to you all will be being full of shit, again.

[steve58]

The United States announced joint military flight drills in Guyana on Thursday as tensions over a contested oil-rich region with neighbor Venezuela prompted the U.N. Security Council to call an urgent meeting.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/guyana-venezuela-conflict-essequibo-oil-us-military-flight-drills/

[Gusington]

The UN is getting involved? Great we're all saved 

[Windigo]

Send African peacekeepers in; spread cholera around and set up/equip multiple little warlord kingdoms like they did in Haiti.