Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

I would not think the Russians want a siege, but time will tell I guess.

[Skoop]

I've been hearing about the build up for a couple weeks.  Interesting, cause this is one where Ukraine won't just give ground.

[FarAway Sooner]

I've been hearing about the build up for a couple weeks.  Interesting, cause this is one where Ukraine won't just give ground.

Not if they have any choice, certainly!

We've been hearing reports that the Russian Army is on the verge of collapse for about 21 months now.  So far, they've proven to have the same indifference to casualties that they had in WW2.

To be sure, the tardy supply of basic ammunition from the US and from Western European allies has left them in a bad place for a while.  It's a little unclear how quickly that can be remedied now that the US is getting off its collective butt.  Better late than never, although it still pisses me off that the US dropped the baton like it did in keeping basic logistical materials flowing.

I'm now convinced that the Europeans can only move quickly to provide aid to Ukraine if something is:  A) painless; and B) offers A LOT of money for national special interests of some sort or another.  Otherwise, the Europeans seem to be happy sitting on their asses, rattling their sabres, and authorizing the transfer of small handfuls of fairly expensive and impressive-sounding equipment while they patiently wait for their corporations to be guaranteed billions of Euroes via free market contracting before they lift a finger.

[Skoop]

The dwindling of artillery shell supply, the low supply of Patriot missiles to combat the su34 glide bomb dropping are the main culprits.

Then Ukraine running out of manpower isn't helping either, nothing the west can do about Ukrainians not signing up for the military or zelenski's refusal to conscript.

Not helping that Russia isn't invited to the coming peace talks.

The cold reality is no one wants world war 3 today, everyone's economy is saying we'll wait for article 5.

Good effort though, ukraine has accounted themselves quite admirable. Their resistance was better than 2014, Putin had to pay big this time, and may think twice next time.

It's time for peace fortunately or unfortunately, how ever you may view the situation.

[Gusington]

Peace at what cost is the question. Is Ukraine ready to accept that 20% or more of their territory is now Russian and may be forever?

[Con]

Don't see it happening
Russias economy is now linked to the war 
They don't get to go back to the way it was before
Oil embargo's on tech will hamper growth
Brightest have left Russia to avoid the meat grinder
No organic or other tech growth
No country trusts Russia
I think the true battlefield is economic resilience and the story for Russia has not been played out 
The leading indicators are not positive for them without massive intervention
 which I don't see coming from China or India who have their own economic problems
Con

[Skoop]

Peace at what cost is the question. Is Ukraine ready to accept that 20% or more of their territory is now Russian and may be forever?

I know, it's a tough pill to swallow.  But Ukraine has made Putin pay far more than that 20% is worth.  Like Con eluded to, Russia might implode economically in the long run.  We have to keep the rest of Ukraine in tact in the mean time.  No one in the west is willing to switch their economy over to war time production to produce 70,0000 arty shells per month, cause that's what it will take to win this.  A dozen F16s is like panthers and elephants winning at Kursk'43, arty and trenches won that one too. 

[Crossroads]

Another long read from Lawrence Freedman of Ukraine, Putin's Victory day, and the situation in grand scale of things.

For Putin deadlock is preferable to defeat but victory would be better. He had reason to believe at the start of this year that he might have a path to victory as his forces pressed hard against Ukrainian positions along the line of contact while the US Congress was paralysed by Republican Party splits. This led to concern that we had reached a turning point in this war, with Russia having the more reason to be optimistic.

The pendulum has yet to swing in the other direction but Russia's big push has not yielded decisive results and its position could worsen towards the end of this year. So for the third year in a row Putin has celebrated a famous victory of almost eight decades ago while being unable to claim a new victory.

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a-third-victory-parade-with-no-victory?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[JasonPratt]

A dozen F16s is like panthers and elephants winning at Kursk'43, arty and trenches won that one too.

To be fair to both sides: the Soviet trenches and arty definitely helped win, but the Nazis chewed through lines that nobody thought they had a chance to beat, and almost won the day anyway with those panthers and elefants (among other things). Then Stalin threw at least two fresh elite armies from his reserves (maybe three I don't clearly recall), which the Nazis weren't expecting was even possible, and that decisively turned the tide.

Whatever Putin has been using as reserves, he hasn't been dealing out that sort of thing (unlike Stalin for some of the past battles before Kursk already). But both sides, not only Ukraine, regard the outcome of this war as an existential threat.

Russia's side of that isn't as overtly obvious to us as their plans for destroying Ukraine for their own use, of course (which has been going on every time Russia targets civilians). But a draw or even minimal gain before stopping (like getting one real major city) will still be fatal for Putin and his regime as 'Russia' per se: they don't have the demographics to come back from this and do it again, they MUST take over and loot Ukraine -- or they'll disintegrate into something like a cargo cult, whose only sort-of-allies would love to take over milking vast tracts of Russia's land in an equally abusive and exploitative way.

Putin & his mafia cronies have mismanaged and plundered Russia to the point where they need this big win to keep on surviving a little longer. But unless their management radically changes for the better, they're just clinging onto the side of the toilet a little longer. It's really quite nightmarish for everyone involved, and the fact that the people who were inflicting the nightmares are now suffering the nightmares, too, doesn't really help.

[Skoop]

The 2nd SS and the near breakthrough at prokarovka is a legendary moment, but you can't have an encirclement with only one pincer.  The arty and trenches were so effective on the north side, the Germans could never get past ponryi which was only a few miles from where they started.  So yes arty and trenches won Kursk. 

I'd be all in for dozens of arty shell factories springing up all over America to produce 100,000 shells per month for Ukraine, but good luck convincing fellow tax payers on that trillion dollar endeavor, especially since we aren't really at war.  But that's what's really going to make a difference in Ukraine, not a hodgepodge of Bradley's, abrams, and f16s.  Artillery is still the god of war in 2024.

[nelmsm]

The 2nd SS and the near breakthrough at prokarovka is a legendary moment, but you can't have an encirclement with only one pincer.  The arty and trenches were so effective on the north side, the Germans could never get past ponryi which was only a few miles from where they started.  So yes arty and trenches won Kursk. 

I'd be all in for dozens of arty shell factories springing up all over America to produce 100,000 shells per month for Ukraine, but good luck convincing fellow tax payers on that trillion dollar endeavor, especially since we aren't really at war.  But that's what's really going to make a difference in Ukraine, not a hodgepodge of Bradley's, abrams, and f16s.  Artillery is still the god of war in 2024.

Agreed.  As far as I'm concerned we should be gearing up industry to supply Ukraine with whatever we can.  I'd rather we be sending weapons so other folks can fight the Russians than pussy footing around and letting them fall and just encouraging Putin to gear back up and pick on the next country on his list. 

[JasonPratt]

I would argue you very much can have an encirclement with only one pincer as long as the other side is successfully keeping the enemy's attention and attrition; that's basic fieldwork going back at least as far as spearwalls being flanked. I assume most or all of us have done that ourselves in various game systems! Had the southern jaw chewed through the throat, that would have been an encirclement (though not a double envelopment admittedly). But then the reserves arrived.

Be that as it may, I specifically said, "the Soviet trenches and arty definitely helped win". They slowed down the pincers on each side (one of them much moreso than the other) until Soviet reinforcements arrived to kick ass and save the day. And even then, it was still a technical victory for the Nazis. Just not a useful one. Without the Soviet defenses, the reserves would have arrived way too late. Without the reserves, the defenses would have ultimately crumpled.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, speaking of desperate counterattacks: if I understand the number-claims correctly, around more-than 30K Sov... er, Russian troops are on the way to Kharkiv -- out of a total of 50K on the entire frontline.

If I heard that right, this raises a few interesting questions.  Discussion?