https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67635646
QuoteVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is plunging ahead with its plans to take over Essequibo, the oil-rich region controlled by neighbouring Guyana.
He has ordered the state oil company to issue extraction licences there and proposed the National Assembly pass a bill making the area part of Venezuela.
Guyana has put its defence forces on full alert in response.
...
On Sunday, more than 95% of voters in Venezuela's referendum approved establishing a new Venezuelan state in the region. While only two million people voted - making up roughly 10% of eligible voters - Venezuela's claim to Essequibo enjoys broad support in the country.
The country has long maintained that an 1899 decision to award the 159,500-sq-km (61,600-sq-mile) region to the UK was unfair.
Hopefully, this is just bluster on Maduro's part, but with 125 to 150 thousand active military personnel (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/venezuela/#military-and-security), it wouldn't face too much opposition from Guyana's "approximately 3,000 active-duty military personnel (2023)" (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/guyana/#military-and-security). With Venezuela's economy in tatters, grabbing the petroleum rich region would be just another country robbing another. There is no word of movement of Venezuela's military forces though.
Happy Holidays for a great 2023 year!
Been reading about this. Invasions are all the rage again :undecided:
Quote from: Gusington on December 06, 2023, 05:09:24 PMBeen reading about this. Invasions are all the rage again :undecided:
Shall we go with "those who forget their history..." or just "war, war never changes". :sad:
Why not both?
is this part of russias play to stalemate with Ukraine and keep what they've got?
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 06, 2023, 09:51:20 PMis this part of russias play to stalemate with Ukraine and keep what they've got?
Nope
Quote from: Windigo on December 06, 2023, 11:54:38 PMQuote from: GDS_Starfury on December 06, 2023, 09:51:20 PMis this part of russias play to stalemate with Ukraine and keep what they've got?
Nope
taken from wiki as a shallow dive:
Venezuela remains as one of Russia's most important trading and military allies in Latin America (after Brazil), making a strong bond in the bilateral relations between the two nations. Relations have become increasingly closer with Venezuela, the most recent visible results of which being Venezuela becoming the third nation to officially recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Russia approving a $2 billion loan to Venezuela for arms in September 2009
I would have to believe you would see intervention by several countries if Venezuela tries to actually invade that part of Guyana. After all it was a British Protectorate at one time and surely the US would not sit idly by and Brazil would also have an interest I think.
This is a bit concerning. I seem to recall earlier this year or late last year that Russian and Chinese troops would participate in an exercise with Venezuela. I also heard rumors of some units remaining in Venezuela.
If Russia is friends with both Venezuela and Brazil and both are mobilizing troops near the disputed Guyana how could Russia approve of this action or use this in relation with Ukraine?
If this is indeed another proxy war; Brazil is more than up to the task of thwarting that crazy bastard's ambitions... with a modest amount of American backing.
Venezuela's armed forces are not up snuff in any way shape or form.
The usual suspects over on Twitter are now throwing their clout behind Venezuela on the grounds that Guyana is backed by the United States, therefore Venezuela are the good guys. The hypocrisy to support imperialism is astounding.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 07, 2023, 01:39:38 AMQuote from: Windigo on December 06, 2023, 11:54:38 PMQuote from: GDS_Starfury on December 06, 2023, 09:51:20 PMis this part of russias play to stalemate with Ukraine and keep what they've got?
Nope
taken from wiki as a shallow dive:
Venezuela remains as one of Russia's most important trading and military allies in Latin America (after Brazil), making a strong bond in the bilateral relations between the two nations. Relations have become increasingly closer with Venezuela, the most recent visible results of which being Venezuela becoming the third nation to officially recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Russia approving a $2 billion loan to Venezuela for arms in September 2009
In dispassionate thinking, if this was a wargame, I would think my opponent was trying to wear my resources down, even cause my society's failure by overspending militarily and neglecting domestic issues. Of course, this isn't a game and consequences are very real. Intuitively, I feel that Russia and its allies are acting in concert to break the West, starting with the continuing support for Ukraine. However, without any clear evidence, there is no logical analysis to support such a belief.
As for Guyana's Commonwealth ally, the Guyanese are not UK citizens like Falklanders, the UK military is a pale comparison to its 1982 self, its military stocks are somewhat depleted and there may be a confidence vote on the Prime Minister's leadership shortly.
A problem for Venezuela attacking is that the routes to Guyana go through Brazil. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67645018
QuoteHowever any military incursion by Venezuela will be logistically challenging, Venezuelan soldiers would need to pass through Brazilian territory if they enter Essequibo because of challenging terrain elsewhere.
However, as Venezuela has paratroopers (Hugo Chavez was one) and Guyana has no fighter aircraft and only 24 Strela-2 Manpads, seizing an airhead is in the realm of the possible for a coup de main.
Hopefully, my Christmas gift to you all will be being full of shit, again.
QuoteThe United States announced joint military flight drills in Guyana on Thursday as tensions over a contested oil-rich region with neighbor Venezuela prompted the U.N. Security Council to call an urgent meeting.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/guyana-venezuela-conflict-essequibo-oil-us-military-flight-drills/
The UN is getting involved? Great we're all saved :tophat:
Send African peacekeepers in; spread cholera around and set up/equip multiple little warlord kingdoms like they did in Haiti.
Quote from: steve58 on December 08, 2023, 11:08:18 AMQuoteThe United States announced joint military flight drills in Guyana on Thursday as tensions over a contested oil-rich region with neighbor Venezuela prompted the U.N. Security Council to call an urgent meeting.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/guyana-venezuela-conflict-essequibo-oil-us-military-flight-drills/
That's good news.
Quote from: Uberhaus on December 08, 2023, 05:11:29 PMQuote from: steve58 on December 08, 2023, 11:08:18 AMQuoteThe United States announced joint military flight drills in Guyana on Thursday as tensions over a contested oil-rich region with neighbor Venezuela prompted the U.N. Security Council to call an urgent meeting.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/guyana-venezuela-conflict-essequibo-oil-us-military-flight-drills/
That's good news.
While its good news, I have this nagging thought in the back of my mind that there may be some orchestration being done IRT all the crises happening now. Ukraine. Israel. Venezuela. Fortunately, the Straits of Taiwan will be too rough until about April to land troops. However, if some of these crises don't simmer down, the US may find itself very distracted around then. I'm not saying this is happening, I'm more saying it is worth keeping a "weather eye" out on this possibility.
Quote from: Windigo on December 08, 2023, 12:51:36 PMSend African peacekeepers in; spread cholera around and set up/equip multiple little warlord kingdoms like they did in Haiti.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2213908
QuotePhylogenetic analysis of more than 1200 isolates revealed that the 2022 Haiti isolate was closely related to the 2010 Nepal isolate that was the origin of the initial outbreak. The 2022 isolate belongs to a subclade of Haiti V. cholerae isolates that originated in 2013 during the previous epidemic and is divergent from 2013 strains from Mexico that were thought to have spread from Haiti, as well as from currently circulating Bangladesh isolates.
General Dallaire wrote very highly of Ghanian troops in
Shake Hands with the Devil, they would have accomplished what he proposed to do in Rwanda. Senegalese troops have a long record of accomplishment, and I'm sure the Kenyans will do just fine in Haiti, probably a lot better than MINUSTAH did.
Quote from: Tripoli on December 08, 2023, 05:17:16 PMQuote from: Uberhaus on December 08, 2023, 05:11:29 PMQuote from: steve58 on December 08, 2023, 11:08:18 AMQuoteThe United States announced joint military flight drills in Guyana on Thursday as tensions over a contested oil-rich region with neighbor Venezuela prompted the U.N. Security Council to call an urgent meeting.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/guyana-venezuela-conflict-essequibo-oil-us-military-flight-drills/
That's good news.
While its good news, I have this nagging thought in the back of my mind that there may be some orchestration being done IRT all the crises happening now. Ukraine. Israel. Venezuela. Fortunately, the Straits of Taiwan will be too rough until about April to land troops. However, if some of these crises don't simmer down, the US may find itself very distracted around then. I'm not saying this is happening, I'm more saying it is worth keeping a "weather eye" out on this possibility.
Overwhelm the US' two theatre capabilities? Obviously you are watching for a build up of invasion forces.
Any opinion on Venezuela's naval landing capabilities and marines? (See what I did there!)
Quote from: Uberhaus on December 08, 2023, 05:42:56 PMQuote from: Windigo on December 08, 2023, 12:51:36 PMSend African peacekeepers in; spread cholera around and set up/equip multiple little warlord kingdoms like they did in Haiti.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2213908
QuotePhylogenetic analysis of more than 1200 isolates revealed that the 2022 Haiti isolate was closely related to the 2010 Nepal isolate that was the origin of the initial outbreak. The 2022 isolate belongs to a subclade of Haiti V. cholerae isolates that originated in 2013 during the previous epidemic and is divergent from 2013 strains from Mexico that were thought to have spread from Haiti, as well as from currently circulating Bangladesh isolates.
General Dallaire wrote very highly of Ghanian troops in Shake Hands with the Devil, they would have accomplished what he proposed to do in Rwanda. Senegalese troops have a long record of accomplishment, and I'm sure the Kenyans will do just fine in Haiti, probably a lot better than MINUSTAH did.
You motivated me to do some research, Nepal indeed seems to be the source.
thanks largely to the investigations of journalist Jonathan M. Katz and epidemiologist Renaud Piarroux,[10] it is widely believed to be the result of contamination by infected United Nations peacekeepers deployed from Nepal.[11]
Invasion averted.
https://adnamerica.com/en/venezuela/invasion-averted-venezuela-vows-not-use-force-settle-dispute-guyana-over-oil-rich?utm_source=referral&utm_medium=offthepress&utm_campaign=home
Peace in our time...
Good news again. I'm curious as to what promises, concessions, and threats (US & Brazil) were made.
US & Brazil - said to Venezuela while polishing cruise missiles, "Hey! Not in our backyard, thanks!"
Venezuela Adding Troops Near Guyana Border. Looking like Maduro may have changed his mind about invading.
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99800/status/1756069521649975320
https://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-adding-troops-near-guyana-172913898.html
This looks like a piece of the 'how many wars can the U.S. police successfully at once' scenario unfolding.
Quote from: Gusington on February 10, 2024, 11:39:04 AMThis looks like a piece of the 'how many wars can the U.S. police successfully at once' scenario unfolding.
not many with Congress acting as it is.