Israel

[MikeGER]

 Hamas Flying Circus  Those Magnificent Men in Their Flying Machines 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1712096863766102376

his flight to Israel was full of tension  

[Sir Slash]

Electrifying video.

[JasonPratt]

^How many of them are there?

Sorry for the delay, I had to hold up for op-sec reasons, you know how it is.

There were 10 people in the group, at least 5 church members (maybe 6) and some of their family from other churches. Our chief deacon and his wife; our pastor's wife (whose Dad, from another church, was helping guide the group); and another couple.

I would have had to hold up telling how they eventually got out -- I think it was through Jordan, but the girl who posted that took it off for security reasons, and I haven't been able to confirm whether Mom just imagined reading that (as a probable guess) or not.

They'll be in Dallas this afternoon, Nashville tonight (couldn't get a direct flight in from wherever they were staging into the states), and back home after mid-night. They're out of potential targeting in whatever Muslim nation(s) they escaped through.

Thanks for all prayers and well-wishes!

[Gusington]

^Ah so they're out...nice.

[GDS_Starfury]

so the point was made that there is no way hamas practiced that para gliding op in Gaza as it would have been noticed.  so where was it practiced and how did the men and material get back into Gaza?

[Sir Slash]

It's great your people are out Jason. 

[ArizonaTank]

so the point was made that there is no way hamas practiced that para gliding op in Gaza as it would have been noticed.  so where was it practiced and how did the men and material get back into Gaza?

I don't think the guy in video practiced at all.

[Jarhead0331]

The US is sending substantial assets to the region. I find this to be pretty unusual. I'm not the tinfoil hat wearing type, but I have a growing suspicion that this attack is going to be used as a pretext for a wider war against Iran. Certain elements have been itching for such an opportunity for quite some time.

I hope the war remains regional and that it ends quickly, but nothing would surprise me anymore. In fact, I wouldn't even be totally shocked if there was intelligence that this attack was coming, but that it was purposely ignored. No evidence of this, of course, but just nagging intuition I suppose. 

[Uberhaus]

I am dubious of Egypt and Congressman McCaul's claims that Israel was warned as these claims aren't being substantiated.  Netanyahu can be cynical, but I don't believe for an instant that he would sacrifice so much even for the destruction of Iran.  For the potential loss of some aircraft and aircrew he could easily wreck Iran's nuclear program and then continue to ignore the usual international outrage.

However, Iran's leadership is facing a serious internal threat from protests that have continued for a year and that they cannot suppress.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-66834156  Now a jailed woman's activist has won the Nobel Peace Prize.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67026216  This leadership will definitely believe an external attack would be  of benefit to their popular support.  There is also a chance to derail the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231011-saudi-public-debate-on-ties-with-israel-jolted-by-war  A Saudi-Israeli normalization would be a great barrier to Iranian ambitions in the region.

Hopefully, cynicism isn't at the tller, but if cynics are steering, I think they're autocratic.

[Sir Slash]

I think Israel would be within it's rights to retaliate directly against Iran for this attack. I don't think they will, openly at least, but perhaps a lot more Iranian Nuclear Scientists might suddenly become involved in traffic accidents in the weeks ahead.

[Tripoli]

I am dubious of Egypt and Congressman McCaul's claims that Israel was warned as these claims aren't being substantiated.  Netanyahu can be cynical, but I don't believe for an instant that he would sacrifice so much even for the destruction of Iran.  For the potential loss of some aircraft and aircrew he could easily wreck Iran's nuclear program and then continue to ignore the usual international outrage.

However, Iran's leadership is facing a serious internal threat from protests that have continued for a year and that they cannot suppress.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-66834156  Now a jailed woman's activist has won the Nobel Peace Prize.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67026216  This leadership will definitely believe an external attack would be  of benefit to their popular support.  There is also a chance to derail the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231011-saudi-public-debate-on-ties-with-israel-jolted-by-war  A Saudi-Israeli normalization would be a great barrier to Iranian ambitions in the region.

Hopefully, cynicism isn't at the tller, but if cynics are steering, I think they're autocratic.

I would argue that the  behavior of Hamas towards the civilian targets was not only a reflection of animalistic impulses of the terrorists as individuals or of Hamas' ideology.  Rather, it may also be part of a strategy to incite an Israeli over-reaction that could be used to generate support for Iran and/or scuttle the Israeli-Saudi negotiations. 

[Gusington]

^As gross as that is, it makes sense.

[Jarhead0331]

I am dubious of Egypt and Congressman McCaul's claims that Israel was warned as these claims aren't being substantiated.  Netanyahu can be cynical, but I don't believe for an instant that he would sacrifice so much even for the destruction of Iran.  For the potential loss of some aircraft and aircrew he could easily wreck Iran's nuclear program and then continue to ignore the usual international outrage.

However, Iran's leadership is facing a serious internal threat from protests that have continued for a year and that they cannot suppress.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-66834156  Now a jailed woman's activist has won the Nobel Peace Prize.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67026216  This leadership will definitely believe an external attack would be  of benefit to their popular support.  There is also a chance to derail the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231011-saudi-public-debate-on-ties-with-israel-jolted-by-war  A Saudi-Israeli normalization would be a great barrier to Iranian ambitions in the region.

Hopefully, cynicism isn't at the tller, but if cynics are steering, I think they're autocratic.

I would argue that the  behavior of Hamas towards the civilian targets was not only a reflection of animalistic impulses of the terrorists as individuals or of Hamas' ideology.  Rather, it may also be part of a strategy to incite an Israeli over-reaction that could be used to generate support for Iran and/or scuttle the Israeli-Saudi negotiations. 

There is no "over-reaction" to the rape and murder of women, the beheading of infant babies and the slaughter of the elderly. Israel is legally and morally justified in leveling Gaza in my view. Any comfort Israel gives to Gaza, be it electricity, water, supplies, etc. are used against it. No other country on the planet would tolerate what Israel has put up with since 2007 and no other country on the planet would not retaliate with all means in its arsenal in response to this provocation. 

[Tripoli]

If my theory is correct, then it becomes incumbent on Israel to appear to be as moderate as possible in their response.  Not that the Hamas actions don't deserve the fires of Hell raining upon them.  But there are larger issues. You really want to hurt Iran?  Then don't let this operation scuttle the Saudi-Israeli negotiations.  WHile some retaliation in the near term is necessary (and I have no problem with the Mossad spending the next twenty years hunting down  the perpetrators and killing them like dogs), it will be important to very precisely target Hamas.  Not an easy thing to do, with the current and understandable state of Israeli public opinion.  I believe the formation of a unity government in Israel is a good first step.  The use of the hostages as human shields will make this targeted approach more difficult.  Nevertheless, IMHO, this targeted and limited approach is needed to win the larger war.

Jarhead: I see we both posted at near the same time.  I don't disagree with your position.  Hamas' behavior has removed them from the protections of the laws of war.  Pretty much any response is absolutely justified.  But whether it is wise to do so is another issue.  I believe the negotiations with Saudi Arabia are extremely important for Israel's security and for isolating Iran.  I don't want to see a justified Israeli response to endanger those negotiations.  Thus, moderating to a degree, the response that is absolutely justified in order to keep the negotiations on track is the superior strategy to winning the larger conflict. 

[Jarhead0331]

If my theory is correct, then it becomes incumbent on Israel to appear to be as moderate as possible in their response.  Not that the Hamas actions don't deserve the fires of Hell raining upon them.  But there are larger issues. You really want to hurt Iran?  Then don't let this operation scuttle the Saudi-Israeli negotiations.  WHile some retaliation in the near term is necessary (and I have no problem with the Mossad spending the next twenty years hunting down  the perpetrators and killing them like dogs), it will be important to very precisely target Hamas.  Not an easy thing to do, with the current and understandable state of Israeli public opinion.  I believe the formation of a unity government in Israel is a good first step.  The use of the hostages as human shields will make this targeted approach more difficult.  Nevertheless, IMHO, this targeted and limited approach is needed to win the larger game.

This isn't a game. Israel is fighting for their very existence. There is no winning so long as there are people who believe that Israel has no right to exist. I agree with Ben Shapiro that Hamas is worse than the Nazis. The Nazis at least tried to cover up their crimes. Hamas livestreams their crimes and celebrates each murder.

There will be no peace until Arabs love their children more than they hate Jews. Truer words have never been spoken.