http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-could-invade-europe-within-48-hours-warns-ex-military-chief-a7315976.html
QuoteThe former chief of Joint Forces Command warned that the failure of countries such as France, Germany and Italy to take the threat of Russian aggression seriously could lead to a loss of land, sea and airspace.
Countries bordering the country, led by president Vladimir Putin, are concerned about the threat from their neighbour, not a priority for southern and central states.
The majority of the EU bloc is focussed on the heightened terror threat and migration crisis gripping the continent
Yeah, but with all the Muslim terrorists there now, who would try it? ;) Besides, the Luftstache guards the skies.
They wouldn't get through Poland in 48 hours. Not with conventionals alone.
The whole situation at the moment terrifies me, I have to be honest.
Especially with Boris and the Donald on the job...
Take it? Maybe. Hold on to it? No.
The general quoted in the article doesn't really make the case that Russia could take it in 48 hours.
QuoteGeneral Sir Richard Barrons claimed Russia could deploy warplanes, ships and troops on European soil within 48 hours if it desired, with NATO some months away from an effective counter-strike.
They certainly could have troops inside the Baltics in 48 hours and it could take NATO a while to do something about it militarily.
Technically, the Russians have troops on European soil already in the Ukraine.
Quote from: mirth on December 18, 2016, 08:03:55 AM
The general quoted in the article doesn't really make the case that Russia could take it in 48 hours.
QuoteGeneral Sir Richard Barrons claimed Russia could deploy warplanes, ships and troops on European soil within 48 hours if it desired, with NATO some months away from an effective counter-strike.
They certainly could have troops inside the Baltics in 48 hours and it could take NATO a while to do something about it militarily.
Technically, the Russians have troops on European soil already in the Ukraine.
Technically, those troops are on vacation. It just so happens that all they packed was battle dress. Oops.
I suppose POMCUS isn't a thing anymore?
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 18, 2016, 09:01:01 AM
I suppose POMCUS isn't a thing anymore?
they're still there - several heavy brigade sets are up near the ports
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 18, 2016, 09:30:17 AM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 18, 2016, 09:01:01 AM
I suppose POMCUS isn't a thing anymore?
they're still there - several heavy brigade sets are up near the ports
Well hey, that's something.
They also have Kaliningrad or whatever the kids are calling it these days and have been very busy turning it into a fortress for the last year or so.
Quote from: mirth on December 18, 2016, 06:19:39 AM
They wouldn't get through Poland in 48 hours. Not with conventionals alone.
This.
Russia goes for the Baltics. Poland goes defcon1. The rest of Europe freaks out except the Brits who are pissed enough and really want a fight.
Shit goes south and Russia is reminded of what real air power can do. Cucumbers barely get across the start line.
It's weird when we agree.
More like Russia could flush its military down the drain in 48 hours. ::)
Is Poland really such a force to be reckoned with?
Poland is pretty well armed and has no desire to be part of a new Russian Empire. NATO may not have the stomach to fight, but the Poles will.
Quote from: mirth on December 19, 2016, 04:21:14 AM
Poland is pretty well armed and has no desire to be part of a new Russian Empire. NATO may not have the stomach to fight, but the Poles will.
the US, French or Brits should be courageous lend -until the political situation has changed for good- the Baltic states an older but still capable SSBN including the warheads and manned with Baltic states crew and under their full local! command. And the similar to Poland too and the crisis and tension in Europe with Russia would be over the next day.
the uncertainty and so the actual Russian threat is only generated by the fact that NATO and esp USA might not be willing to strike and risk an attack on their soil because
'some minor border-states who never show up in the news for the ordinary American voter anyway (beside maybe winter Olympics sports) get fully overrun.... i think they would even write of the 4000 men symbolic brigades that we all are have on station there and who will get mauled badly as speedbumps.
These days no western nation is able to interdict because of inner politics! and Putin smells it.
That helping-out war would be lost on the home (
media) front in hours, NATO treaty or not, and its all about summits and trade sanction and round tables and talks and peace marches for then on...
There will be even mayor left leaning news out lets discussing ( = demanding) and thousends of marchers will claim: 'Ceasefire! It belong to Russia and we are to blame, because its not our business... n'such)
In Germany left-green protester will flood and block the roads to barracks and bases (like Ramstein) like flies on cow pile ...it will be all a big mess.
In addition we have a lot of Russian origin migrants offspring now in the Bundeswehr who will simply not shoot on Russians!
(...i have a personal testimony of a speaking acquaintance, a multiple time Stan vet !, who in his free times is a weekend mechanic (that's where i know him from) and full time does now step from some Feldwebel-grades to officer school carrier step, so he his technical a Fahnenjunker atm. who will not fight against 'his parents origin'. I dunno what our MAD is doing to let such a person pass on to officer school?) At the end of the day Russia will keep the territory ....and Germany takes all the refugees (at least these would be real refugges, all good people! and no Muslims scum-flood this time:) )
If Putin can be sure that most of his metropoles would get the good new by an SSBN strike before the final resistance in those states invaded got finally overwhelmed and their home place look already like after a strike, then it will never happen.
Quote from: MikeGER on December 19, 2016, 07:33:48 AM
Good Stuff
Putin: Making a Twilight 2k RPG Possible Again...albeit with a few changes. :dreamer:
Quote from: Dammit Carl! on December 19, 2016, 08:07:25 AM
Quote from: MikeGER on December 19, 2016, 07:33:48 AM
Good Stuff
Putin: Making a Twilight 2k RPG Possible Again...albeit with a few changes. :dreamer:
I was thinking a new Gamma World. :-"
It's hard to imagine anybody controlling any country today with communications being so fast and wide-spread the way say the Germans did in WWII or the Soviets in east Europe. No army would be able to move anywhere without everybody with a phone able to rat on them and send video of who and what was where. Maybe that's a good thing?
Eventually that may not stop some countries. Also - what about communications jamming/internet blackouts/cord cutting?
Quote from: Gusington on December 19, 2016, 06:30:13 PM
Eventually that may not stop some countries. Also - what about communications jamming/internet blackouts/cord cutting?
Cell service and internet would be among the first things disrupted. It's well within the Russian's capabilities. And you can bet they'd flood the web with disinformation.
Kinda like...now?
Bingo.
With today's attack in Germany and the assassination in Turkey I am trying to wrap my brain around 'expecting the unexpected.'
Yeah. Doesn't look like we'll be getting Peace on Earth this Christmas.
It's also hard not to imagine Putin as some behind the iron curtain demigod pulling the strings to all of this, somehow.
I wouldn't put it past him to off his own ambassador to advance an agenda.
Me neither. I wouldn't put it past him to have a hand in the entire mess of the ME just to have an ongoing rotation of clients and customers either.
Not to mention that an unstable ME keeps oil prices higher, which helps Putin's budget.
For sure. Instability feeds Putin and his Russia.
I'm less convinced by NATO's ability to immediately do much about a Russian military action each day.
Readiness and maintenance standards are low in Western European armed forces. Many of the newer EU members in Eastern Europe still use 1980's Soviet equipment.
The elephant in the room for me is that NATO members have not fought a large scale conventional conflict against a foe with comparable capabilities since WWII. In all conflicts afterwards, NATO members had significant advantages in one or more areas. The latest wars were all small wars against mostly poorly trained infantry units with little to no support weapons. With each passing month, more veterans of those conflicts also leave the armed forces. Russia on the other hand has recent experience in dealing with an actual army through the fighting in the Ukraine.
I recall a discussion with Starfury about how during Desert Storm Iraqi Soviet tank copies were, according to him, similar in capabilities to the M1 Abrams if the trained guys would be driving the Soviet tanks and the poorly trained people the M1's. That discussion didn't really solve the question, but Russian tanks today are significantly better than what the Iraqi's had during Desert Storm or afterwards.
Most Western European armies have not upgraded their anti-tank equipment to deal with countermeasures. Wargames are just games, but they make it quite clear that modernized 1980's anti-tank weapons don't cut it against modernized 1980's/early 1990's tanks with the latest countermeasures.
Air defence systems have historically been an area where Soviet and Russian weapons were/are on par or better than what NATO uses. I'm not sure what kind of a counter NATO has to large quantities of S-300 or S-400 systems, for example. As far as I know, NATO also doesn't use long range air-to-air missiles anymore similar to what was used during the Cold War.
As Mad Russian posted in a discussion about Flashpoint Campaigns, NATO relied in the late 1980's on everything being there at the right place on the right time. If that was the case, the Soviets were screwed. If that was not the case, NATO was in for a beating.
The talk about NATO air superiority is nice, but the reality is that initially the Russians would only be flying against Eastern European aircraft, with various degrees of training, and operating to a significant extent under the safe umbrella of their air defence system. NATO air defences in Eastern Europe are not great.
I'm very worried about the potential fate of a Dutch armoured infantry brigade sent to Eastern Europe, with well-trained infantry but 1980's anti-tank weapons, limited vehicle mounted anti-tank weapons and only a handful of tanks, aircraft and helicopters to support them.
There's also the issue that, due to there being much smaller armies now than during the Cold War, the number of strategic targets for missile strikes has decreased considerably. As most scenarios envision a Russian "surprise" attack or at least first strike, if Russia wants to wage a real war the damage from missiles to barracks and assembly areas could already be so great that the response of NATO will be seriously handicapped. As long as they don't go nuclear, I'm not sure NATO states will go nuclear even if they are attacked with strategic weapons.
Considering the near complete lack of NATO units with large scale conventional conflict experience, untried against a roughly equal foe or unavailable weapon systems and any kind of air superiority in the early stages being very much an "if", I fear the initial strike could be very bad for NATO members in Eastern Europe.
As always, the US will need time to get into the fight and troops across the Atlantic. One very important question is if the US will actually attempt to recapture the Baltic states if Russia is firmly in control after a few days and offers NATO peace.
In the current climate I can definitely see the potential for the West to collectively 'meh' and give up on the Baltics if the Russians snatch them quickly enough and entrench firmly enough afterwards. I know that we have our NATO commitments but I don't know if the will and stomach is there to back it up.
If NATO doesn't defend a member state, it's the end of the alliance. The Russians may make a move just for that end. Particularly once Trump is in office.
Twilight: 2000, here we come! :dreamer:
Gamma World! :bd:
I wonder out of 100 'Muricans polled, how many could find the Baltic Sea on a map.
Quote from: Gusington on December 20, 2016, 06:28:37 PM
I wonder out of 100 'Muricans polled, how many could find the Baltic Sea on a map.
If they're true 'muricans, then it's zero.
Quote from: Gusington on December 20, 2016, 06:28:37 PM
I wonder out of 100 'Muricans polled, how many could find the Baltic Sea on a map.
It's right next to Starbucks!
"Here Putin, take the Baltics. We can barely spell 'Baltics' anyway."
Case closed.
Hey! I don't want no ball ticks! #:-)
Quote from: JasonPratt on December 20, 2016, 08:31:21 PM
Hey! I don't want no ball ticks! #:-)
Steer clear of Star then.
More like, "Here, Putin, take California; most Americans don't know where it is anyway." Or most states in the Union for that matter. They're pretty close to Communist regardless so it should be a nice fit.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 20, 2016, 09:29:11 PM
More like, "Here, Putin, take California; most Americans don't know where it is anyway." Or most states in the Union for that matter. They're pretty close to Communist regardless so it should be a nice fit.
Is trading California for the Baltics an option here.....I'm intrigued.
You never know. The Rockies could be our Golan Heights. Great tank massacre country there.
Hey, it happened in Red Dawn, so why not real life? Powers Boothe wouldn't lie about stopping them cold there.
You'll have to pry CA from my cold dead fingers. But RI is a good trade for 1, maybe 2 Baltic countries.
Let the Russkis try to assimilate Maine. We're the Finland of America. Drunk, belligerent, and heavily armed.
If the Russkies invaded Florida, the traffic during winter would bring their entire army to a dead stop for days. And when they finally reached their objectives, there would be no where to park. Our 'Secret Weapons' are little old people trying to turn right from the left hand lane. :pullhair: Not even Patton could direct this traffic.
Quote from: Steelgrave on December 20, 2016, 09:35:38 PM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 20, 2016, 09:29:11 PM
More like, "Here, Putin, take California; most Americans don't know where it is anyway." Or most states in the Union for that matter. They're pretty close to Communist regardless so it should be a nice fit.
Is trading California for the Baltics an option here.....I'm intrigued.
My best friend was a freight pilot and circumnavigated the globe dozens of times during his flying career. He said that Riga, Latvia had the most beautiful women he'd ever seen in the world. He told me that every woman who entered his field of vision looked like a model.
Quote from: Steelgrave on December 20, 2016, 09:35:38 PMIs trading California for the Baltics an option here.....I'm intrigued.
Depends on whether or not you want to pay $17 for a bag of salad.
but its organic salad thats been watered with the tears of hippys.
...what is a salad ^-^
is that that green stuff i leave behind when i eat steak or refuse to order as a sidekick when being asked (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi67.tinypic.com%2F27z9hja.gif&hash=6358a7fc9d75753bcd5b022e48dda93f54a0e5ff)
Quote from: MikeGER on December 21, 2016, 08:55:44 AM
...what is a salad ^-^
A miserable little pile of secrets.
Quote from: JasonPratt on December 21, 2016, 09:54:04 AM
Quote from: MikeGER on December 21, 2016, 08:55:44 AM
...what is a salad ^-^
A miserable little pile of secrets.
Who are you and what have you done with Jason?!?
That reply was far too short!!! We're on to you! (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frs393.pbsrc.com%2Falbums%2Fpp12%2Feduarprmd%2FEmoticons%2Fim-watching-you-smiley-emoticon.gif%7Ec200&hash=3bae94d611c70a55bc3081ab55fdc69c167d7c99)
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 21, 2016, 06:32:35 AM
Quote from: Steelgrave on December 20, 2016, 09:35:38 PMIs trading California for the Baltics an option here.....I'm intrigued.
Depends on whether or not you want to pay $17 for a bag of salad.
Hell, with the cost of living in Cali, that's about what I was paying when I lived out there.
Quote from: MikeGER on December 21, 2016, 08:55:44 AM
...what is a salad ^-^
Are you really a German ;) ?
When we go to Germany we know the food will be plenty and there is
always salad served with it ... (maybe as a healthy addition to the Weißwein)
I gave myself a migraine yesterday working on an article about St. Athanasius and the meaning of Christmas -- if you want wordy. ;) (http://grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=18488.0)
At the moment, semi-obscure quotes from Castlevania are about my limit. :coolsmiley:
Quote from: Steelgrave on December 21, 2016, 11:35:49 AM
Hell, with the cost of living in Cali, that's about what I was paying when I lived out there.
Then you were shopping at all the wrong places.
https://warisboring.com/interactive-missile-map-reveals-how-messy-a-nato-russia-war-would-be-5ee4d687925b#.u9oijz8in
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/30/gen-mcchrystal-is-right-in-fact-russian-leaders-think-they-already-are-at-war/
QuoteGeneral Stanley McChrystal perhaps shocked many when he spoke out on the chance of a war in Europe — aside from the continuing conflict in Ukraine. He stated that "A European war is not unthinkable. People who want to believe a war in Europe is not possible might be in for a surprise." He is absolutely correct, and it is with Russia.
The common idea on how this will happen is that increased activity can lead to incidents and unintentional escalation. That is, however, only focusing on the direct issues. The underlying issue is that Russia believes itself to be in a war with the West, albeit, for now, a non-military one (coincidentally the topic of my PhD).
The economic sanctions imposed on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine are not perceived as a moderate response from the West to a breach of international law. Rather, as the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated, they are seen as an attempt to provoke regime change in Russia. Moreover, this perception has a longer story than economic sanctions.
The Russian regime is convinced that the West has become so good at mastering the technique of "Color Revolutions" that they can induce regime change where it suits their geopolitical interests. The technique includes an enormous informational offensive, funding NGOs, using special services, and diplomatic pressure — all in the name of democracy.
This was seen to be the case in the Color Revolutions, the Arab Spring, and in Ukraine 2014, when citizens revolted against with pro-Western and democratic ambitions (even if did not turn out that well). This was also seen to be the case in the protests over the Russian elections in 2011-2012, when Putin stated that the protesters were paid from abroad, and that the Color Revolutions were a tested scheme for destabilizing a society.
The regime is thus convinced that the West is after them, albeit with non-military means. This does have a logic for the regime though, Western democracy's support has often gone to the regime's biggest internal threats — the opposition and civil society. The fear is strengthened by recalling that the 26 years of Russian independence were full of state weakness, with financial and social crises and Russia de facto not controlling its territory between 1991-1999 (Chechnya).
Any reasonable strategy strikes where the adversary is weak and where you are strong; that's the foundation of asymmetry. In the Russian eyes, they believe that the West is after them by targeting their state weakness with non-military means. Conversely, asymmetry in the Russian eyes could well be conventional military means.
Even if the results from RAND's wargaming that NATO would be overrun in 36-72 hours in the Baltic States can be questioned, the overall conclusion holds fairly well. Russia has a strong conventional military advantage around the Baltic Sea, and will either aim to strike a bargain with the Trump-administration, or test their commitments to NATO as strongly as possible.
Since the Russian regime believes themselves to be in a war and builds their legitimacy on a siege mentality from the Western threat, a war is definitely thinkable. One could also end by asking if any national security analyst would dare to declare that a war in Europe is unthinkable. If it truly was unthinkable, we could cancel a lot of exercises, reinforcements, and acquisition in Europe.
^good article
Sweden is reintroducing conscription
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/02/sweden-reintroduce-conscription-amid-rising-baltic-tensions
So that this morning...they credit it to their newly more dangerous neighborhood.
Can't say I blame them.
Somebody post a pic of the Swedish Bikini Volleyball Team in fatigues. :clap:
Quote from: Sir Slash on March 02, 2017, 11:59:11 AM
Somebody post a pic of the Swedish Bikini Volleyball Team in out of fatigues. :clap:
Really now...
Better!
Quote from: Gusington on March 02, 2017, 11:11:05 AM
So that this morning...they credit it to their newly more dangerous neighborhood.
Well, they have an increasing immigrant population desperately needing work and/or to be producing something useful in return for their state support. Win / win... ....... ..........?
F-35s in Estonia
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/9675/the-usafs-f-35s-in-estonia-are-a-message-to-russia-and-critics
^...the fock?
Last I heard, the F-35's software was delayed (yet again) six months...back in January of this year.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/01/12/f35_alis_software_delayed/
It's ready for deployment? Sounds more like standard military ops - deploy shite that isn't fully equipped or prepared for war, and hope for the best.
Plus, it's only two F-35s according to that thedrive.com article. How threatening can that be, especially given the plane's faults?
"This is how confident we are that anything you try here won't be any trouble for us: we're sending two F-35's with buggy software! Test us, Comrade, see what happens."
In Soviet threatened eastern Europe enemy F35 jets bug you!
It's a feel good gesture for the Estonians. Plus it's a good environment for some testing and evaluation. Close to Kaliningrad and Russia proper.
If they wanted to really throw a scare into the Russkies, they should sent United Airlines instead.
We're saving that for North Korea.
If Estonia is comforted by two overpriced, not-fully-working airframes, then that says a lot about their own military power...
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on April 27, 2017, 05:50:46 PM
If Estonia is comforted by two overpriced, not-fully-working airframes, then that says a lot about their own military power...
They do have a 5,500 man army
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_Defence_Forces
But only one nation.
But they DO have a 'Defense League (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_Defence_League),' which will make us all sleep better at night.
Sounds like a Slavic equivalent of American rednecks - "Hey, hold my vodka, watch this!"
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on April 27, 2017, 05:55:26 PM
But they DO have a 'Defense League (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_Defence_League),' which will make us all sleep better at night.
Sounds like a Slavic equivalent of American rednecks - "Hey, hold my vodka, watch this!"
Wolverines!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FuhGbVRs.gif&hash=23ef43f7177b388450d961a131d336b2f318efba)
Take that, stinkin Commies!
Quote from: Gusington on April 27, 2017, 05:57:03 PM
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FuhGbVRs.gif&hash=23ef43f7177b388450d961a131d336b2f318efba)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Eagles_(Estonian_youth_organisation)
Pretty much!
Eagles!!!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aarcentral.com%2Fpics%2Fed.jpg&hash=bf0b4764b666de6c236df6a009bf8153a8e7a7d9)
I always suspected The Dude was a Commie.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aarcentral.com%2Fpics%2Fop.jpg&hash=5284917805cc4afc805a63ab25be90cee4c77e37)
(https://66.media.tumblr.com/3e683fcdf3d1d72b2fbc6ec3656e6c07/tumblr_mxgb1nmniv1qfhglwo5_500.png).
^You can change that year to 2017 for the second panel and it still holds.
no, not really.
Huh?
not really
It lives!!!
Cue Shaky Cam effect...