Niger ends military agreement with US

[Uberhaus]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/16/africa/niger-ends-us-military-agreement-intl-hnk/index.html 

"The government of Niger, taking into account the aspirations and interests of its people, decides with full responsibility to denounce with immediate effect the agreement relating to the status of military personnel of the United States and civilian employees of the American Department of Defense in the territory of the Republic of Niger," Niger military spokesman Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane said in a statement on national television announcing the change.
...

"The government of Niger regrets the desire of the American delegation to deny the Nigerien people the right to choose their partners and the types of partnerships capable of helping them truly fight against terrorists," Abdramane said.

Abdramane said Niger "forcefully denounces the condescending attitude" of the US.

"This attitude is likely to undermine the quality of our centuries-old relations and undermine the trust between our two governments," he said.

He also rejected what he said were allegations of a secret deal made between Niger, Russia, and Iran.

The US will likely follow the French military to Chad who are already under pressure to leave there as well.   https://www.voanews.com/a/chad-s-opposition-civil-society-ask-french-troops-to-leave/7380337.html  (from December)
Wagner has an interest in Chad of course  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/23/chad-wagner-russia-leaked-documents/  (a bit dated as of April of last year with Prigozhin referred to in the present tense.) 

At least Haiti cannot support a Wagner offspring group, but who would doubt that Russian and maybe South American and Caribbean intelligence services aren't running around trying to influence events.  Crap, my diatribe of stream of thought stands corrected.  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/leaked-documents-russian-wagner-group-mercenaries-haiti-rcna79440   (April last year as well)

ECOWAS has also lifted sanctions against Niger, and its threats of military action against the Nigerien coup have proven hollow.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68563579   

After the army seized power in Niger last year, the president of its giant neighbour Nigeria was at the forefront of demands that the junta step down, even warning that the West African bloc could use military force to oust the generals, while imposing tough sanctions and closing the border.

However just eight months later, Bola Tinubu has lifted all those restrictions.

In many ways, it is a huge climbdown for the regional bloc, Ecowas, but it is also personally embarrassing for Mr Tinubu, analysts say.

I'm not sure if this is Risk, Diplomacy or if an updated version of Twilight Struggle is needed.  One method Russia has been causing problems for the West has been by sending migrants.  https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/18/russia-ukraine-war-migration-food-crisis-putin/  Niger repealed a law against migrant smuggling in December.  https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20231204-niger-s-repeal-of-migrant-smuggling-law-sets-back-eu-efforts-to-curb-immigration-flows  One must wonder if it was at someone else's behest.

[Uberhaus]

Oh, and seven months ago, Zeihan predicted that France would turn very sharply against the Russians after Russia's interference in the Sahel.  He states this in the conclusion if you don't want to watch the whole video.

[Uberhaus]

Carly Simon might have something to say about this thread.  However, ISW's analysis of events in Niger indicate a possible future drone threat to southern NATO targets including the naval and airbases in Sicily, the southern part of Italy, Gibraltar and Spain. 

Shahed 136 drones based near Agadez would be within range of key US and NATO installations and parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The Shahed 136, also known as Geranium s in Russia, has a maximum range of 1,553 miles (2,500 kilometers).[38] Agadez is 1,523 miles from Sicily and the southern tip of the Italian mainland, 1,555 miles from Gibraltar, and roughly 1,600 miles from the US-Spanish air and naval bases in southern Spain.  Note: At the time of publishing, US forces are still stationed at Agadez Air Base, and there are no Russian or Iranian forces or drones in Niger.

Also, moving US drones from Niger to Chad would inhibit surveillance of Western and N. Africa.

The United States is exploring alternative basing options in the Gulf of Guinea and Chad. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 3 that the United States held preliminary talks for US reconnaissance drones to use airfields in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, and Benin.[58] French newspaper Le Monde reported in January that the US was considering joint bases with France on the continent.[59] The most likely destination for such a base would be Chad, where French forces relocated after departing Niger at the end of 2023.[60]

These alternative options have practical drawbacks, however. The relocation of US reconnaissance drones at least 500 miles south, to the Gulf of Guinea, would significantly restrain US reconnaissance in North Africa and potentially the Lake Chad Basin. American forces at the Agadez Air Base use MQ9 reaper drones, which have a range of 1,150 miles.[61]These alternative options have practical drawbacks, however. The relocation of US reconnaissance drones at least 500 miles south, to the Gulf of Guinea, would significantly restrain US reconnaissance in North Africa and potentially the Lake Chad Basin. American forces at the Agadez Air Base use MQ9 reaper drones, which have a range of 1,150 miles.[61] Relocation into any of the three countries will remove Africa-based surveillance of Islamic State cells in Libya and most of Algeria. Relocation to the farthest West option—Côte d'Ivoire—would also eliminate eyes on the Lake Chad Basin, where the Islamic State's West Africa Province and regional administrative node is based. Relocation to Chad would eliminate coverage of the western halves of Burkina Faso and Mali, where al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate is firmly entrenched.

Finally, there is this little gem from ISW:  "Niger breaking ties with the United States will also further degrade America's ability to dissuade or incentivize Niger from cooperating with Iran, including on uranium provision."


Derp, the link:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/africa-file-special-edition-niger-cuts-united-states-russia-and-iran

[Uberhaus]

and begins its alliance with Russia.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68796359

Dozens of Russian military instructors have arrived in Niger as part of a new agreement with the country's junta, which has cut links with the West.

State media reported that they arrived along with a state-of-the-art air defence system.
...
Footage of the Russian instructors unloading a cargo plane full of equipment was broadcast on Niger's state television.

Ulf Laessing, a specialist in the Sahel region for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, which promotes democracy, told the BBC World Service's Newsday programme that the military supplies appeared to be part of a "regime survival package"...
Mr Laessing said the military government was still concerned about some form of physical interference in Niger by the political and economic alliance of West African states, known as Ecowas.

He added that this is probably the reason for the supply of a Russian air defence system, rather than to help suppress Islamist fighters.

"I don't have any other explanations because jihadists don't have planes," Mr Laessing said.

[Crossroads]

This has been going on for a while. France for one has traditionally been a strong stabilising presence in the are, but has been put on a retreat for a while now.

[Uberhaus]

This has been going on for a while. France for one has traditionally been a strong stabilising presence in the are, but has been put on a retreat for a while now.

and Russia wants to push France (and block the US) out of Chad, the last ally in the Sahel region.  An article from about a year ago states the Russian plans: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/23/chad-wagner-russia-leaked-documents/

Prigozhin may be gone but Russia's intent in the region is not.  It would be unfortunate for the Sahel to become completely Russian aligned and income from precious material extraction go to feed their war machine.  The disruption to ECOWAS by the coup leaders in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso quitting the organisation is a serious blow to the democracies of Africa in that little can be done against coups. 
The belief of Western intellectuals in complete non-interference in countries that have been "colonized" is seriously misguided.  Russia, China and Iran (the two latter putting out feelers for trade and co-operation) may present an image of not having engaged in colonialism in their propaganda (although their neighbours might dispute it) but the results of an Axis of Resistance control will be just as devastating to the inhabitants of the countries they manage to dominate.

[Gusington]

^Just watched a video a few weeks ago on Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso forming there own military and financial union separate from ECOWAS.

[Uberhaus]

^Just watched a video a few weeks ago on Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso forming there own military and financial union separate from ECOWAS.

Would you post it, please?

[Gusington]

Here it is.