Middle Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, now that Erax has settled his voting strategy, finishing out this Business:

THIRD MANDATORY BUSINESS: there is at least one strong enough War to allow a Dictator. So the Consuls should decide whether a Dictator is necessary, and if so, who it should be.

Any senator in Rome (not Manlius), and not already a Consul, can be Dictator, including the PontMax. (I think, I'll have to check that. Plautius would be the only other senator who might be invalid right now).

If appointed by agreement of the Consuls, the Dictator will immediately become Presiding Magistrate of the Senate; and will immediately move to the 4th Mandatory Business, which is deciding whether and who to appoint as his Master of Horse.

[IncompetentIdiot]

I believe we have agreed to appoint Julius Dictator.

[JasonPratt]

Plautius himself votes against his appointment to PontMax -- earning 4 Influence via Progressive special ability for his public humility. He also earns 5 Influence for being elected PontMax anyway (which points he can only gain once in his career, and which he'll lose again if the office is taken away!) Plautius' Influence thus goes up 9 from 7 to 16; total Progressive influence goes up from 34 to 43.

Catching up on an earlier process, the extra Influence point from Quincy's Consul win, goes per I.I. to Valerius, up from 18 to 19; total Influence up to 67.

I.I. and Erax agree to appoint Julius of the Militarists as the Republic's first Dictator! His Influence goes up 7 from 10 to 17; total Militarist Influence up to 49. Julius also becomes HRAO, and Presiding Magistrate of the Senate.

I will add here, or remind anyone who has perused the rules already, that the Dictator's Proposals still have to be voted on -- but his Proposals cannot be vetoed!

FOURTH MANDATORY BUSINESS: Tripoli must now decide whether Julius needs a Master of Horse and if so whom to appoint. This can be any aligned non-Consul (and obviously non-Dictator ;) ) senator in Rome. Note that aside from granting some ally an extra 3 Influence, there is absolutely no need for a MoH unless the Dictator Deploys for War: the overt purpose of the MoH is to add some headquarter capability during one fight this Combat Phase with his own Military skill. The MoH will not lose any office he already holds.

[malize]

Fair enough, I'll retain the concession.

Votes still for sale, etc

[Tripoli]

I'm thinking very seriously about sending my own guy (Aelius) as the MoH.  I'm willing to hear arguments as to other candidates for the position.  According to my calculations, Aelius would give us a total +9 DRM on the combat table, (Julius takes 10 legions against the Gauls, giving us 10 Legions + MIL 9 (Julius)+ MIL 3 (Aelius as MoH)-13 war value=+9 modifier -1 (OMENS))= 8 which translates into a +62% chance of a victory with no losses.  See https://anydice.com/.  Any thoughts?

[JasonPratt]

I'm not sure if it's relevant this Turn, but it might easily become relevant later, so: I'm required to resolve fights in the order of Deployment and/or Reinforcement. So for example if y'all Propose and vote first to send Reinforcement Fleets to Manlius (not being led there by someone else, but just sent to him), then that's what I'll process first.

Relatedly, Julius and his MoH will either have to Deploy last (and thus fight last), or he'll have to resign the PM post, passing it down to the next highest ranking available officer, who then would have the responsibility of Deploying Julius (and the MoH) -- if he chooses to Propose it! He might not, after all!

In principle, the Dictator and Consuls could agree to each pass down the PM to the Censor, who would then be responsible for, and free to, Propose Deployments in the order he thinks most efficient for Combat resolution. (Not counting any Tribune'd Proposals of course; or any majority disagreements or any vetos. The usual.  :D )

[JasonPratt]

Y'all can also Propose to Withdraw Manlius with or without his Fleets -- they'll station-keep without harm if they don't have a leader -- and then Deploy someone else to command the fight; or you can Propose to Deploy someone to bring a whole other Force to his fight to attack in sequence after him (if he has enough Force to do so. A Commander with at least Minimal Force must fight, but a Commander with less than Minimum Force may legally refuse to fight.)

In such circumstances, I would be required to resolve sequential fights against a War in order of arrival, so the Proconsul(s) already there first (if they must, or will), then the new Deployment(s). The different groups would fight separately, not combined, however!

(The final fight for any War, by the way, during a Combat Phase, is against any existent Provinces that its card lists as being targets for the War. The Provinces are the only parts of the Republic that get actively attacked, and which can be captured by a War! -- and used against the Republic! Some Wars can get far enough into the mainland to threaten and destroy Concessions, too, but that's more of a random effect and not an attack per se.)

Keep in mind that if you Withdraw Manlius, that will be Other Business and so he cannot be elected or appointed to a Major Office this Turn, meaning he can't be Deployed back to War on the same Turn -- not even as Master of Horse/Ships.

[JasonPratt]

Whoops! -- wrong thread.  :-[

Carry on, we aren't changing the game.  L:-)

[Erax]

Aelius seems like a good choice to me.

[JasonPratt]

Since the choice of MoH depends totally on appointment by the Dictator, I won't 'process' that until Tripoli specifically designates his pick. Which I know he's waiting a little on, to see if anyone wants to argue for another pick.  O:-)

[Tripoli]

Anyone have a recommendation for MoH?  I'll wait until 4PM CST for input.  In the meantime, the idea of having Manlius "station keep" with the fleets is interesting.  Right now, regardless of what we do, there is a 20% chance of a disaster (a roll of 8 or 13).  We need a 15 or better for a victory.  Manlius has a strength of 6, the Carthaginians have a modifier of -13 (War Strength + Hamilcar).  With 11 fleets that gives us a 11+6-13-1 (omen) =+3 DRM, or a  37% chance of victory, a 20 % chance of disaster.  With funds, and our ability to rebuild fleets beginning to run short, I'm thinking of simply holding off the Punic War until next turn when more fleets and the expiration of the bad omen will significantly improve our chances of a naval victory.  Any thoughts from my fellow senators?

[JasonPratt]

I will add that you shouldn't ignore Standoffs in your cautionary analysis, which are almost as bad as Disasters: they automatically hit you for 25% losses! -- which with large Forces can be worse or even much worse than the worst combat casualties (short of a party-wipe Defeat result).


With those three (not only two!) Standoff possibilities, and with those two Disaster possibilities, you've got a 50.45% chance during any current 1st Punic War fight, of automatically losing at least 25 to 50% of your fighting Force (whether land or sea).

That's pretty dang hideous! -- and unless you Deploy someone who can nullify the War's D/S results, or who can nullify casualties on your side, or until you manage to remove the Enemy Leader (which is a pure luck roll after any fight), it isn't ever going to get any better.

[JasonPratt]

To clarify -- because the situation with Enemy Leaders is worse than I made it sound  :o -- while your Commanders (including MoH) can be killed in any non-Victory result which generates lost Units, Enemy Leaders CANNOT BE KILLED IN BATTLE! The only way to get rid of them is to defeat their currently Active War(s). And then that might only be temporary! -- they only die permanently if (1) all the Wars of their Matching Set have been Defeated, or (2) if they fail an Aging Leader roll while hanging out in the Curia. If they lose a War, and no other Matching Wars remain on the board, they just go to the Curia to await any remaining Matching Wars.

So you'll be dealing with Hamilcar buffing the Punic Wars, and their D/S results, until you either Defeat all those Wars, or until he dies a natural death while waiting for another Punic War to spawn in.


So, while Roman Legions and their HQ organization may seem overpowered, especially as the Vet Legions increase and their training regimen levels up, the Wars have a lot of advantages of their own. Even the doofy little Wars y'all have been fighting up until now (of which the 3rd Samnite is the last one), have all had this major advantage: you can't wear them out. (Except for the Pyrhhic War.) Their Land Strength is permanent. And even the doofy pre-Early Era Wars could multiply each others' (permanent!) Land Strengths, and be buffed in their D/S results and Land Strengths where they had Leaders -- most of whom died by your good luck before latching onto a War.

The 'modern' Wars against the Republic are going to be much worse. Wait until they start overrunning provinces you gained and deploying their own inherent strengths and surviving militia forces against you...!  :bd: :hide:

[Tripoli]

To clarify -- because the situation with Enemy Leaders is worse than I made it sound  :o -- while your Commanders (including MoH) can be killed in any non-Victory result which generates lost Units, Enemy Leaders CANNOT BE KILLED IN BATTLE! The only way to get rid of them is to defeat their currently Active War(s). And then that might only be temporary! -- they only die permanently if (1) all the Wars of their Matching Set have been Defeated, or (2) if they fail an Aging Leader roll while hanging out in the Curia. If they lose a War, and no other Matching Wars remain on the board, they just go to the Curia to await any remaining Matching Wars.

So you'll be dealing with Hamilcar buffing the Punic Wars, and their D/S results, until you either Defeat all those Wars, or until he dies a natural death while waiting for another Punic War to spawn in.
...

The 'modern' Wars against the Republic are going to be much worse. Wait until they start overrunning provinces you gained and deploying their own inherent strengths and surviving militia forces against you...!  :bd: :hide:

Jason, you are a regular Angel of Light, aren't you?   ;)  You talked me into it.  The Punic War is hereby postponed, at least until the omens (or the "Correlation of Forces" as the Soviets called it) are better.... 

[Tripoli]

I have a sneaking suspicion that this isn't going to end well for me.  With that said, I nominate Aelius, noble Roman of unquestionable honor, as the Master of Horse.