Interesting leak from Spiegel:
http://news.yahoo.com/hard-nato-defend-baltic-states-russia-spiegel-181301547--sector.html
Quote"Russia's ability and intention to undertake significant military action without much forewarning poses a far-reaching threat for the maintenance of security and stability in the European-Atlantic area," the weekly magazine said, citing a NATO defense planning committee document.
Russia is capable of building up a local or regional military threat at short notice and at an arbitrary spot, the draft document continued.
However, Europe at the end of the Cold War had concluded that "it could reduce its capabilities for fighting conventional, large scale and high intensity conflicts in Europe".
I believe this leak. NATO and America have been so preoccupied with asymmetrical ops that I think we have allowed our symmetrical capabilities to dwindle. As for Russia actually moving on the Baltics, I don't know. I think it depends on how the Ukraine turns out. If he does succeed in dismantling the country, I wouldn't be surprised for him to turn to the Baltic states next. Poor little Kaliningrad Oblast sitting out there all alone for so many years.... ^-^
always look a little bit further. ;)
http://www.defence24.pl/news_leopardy-2a5-juz-w-zaganiu
the first delivery of 116 that they bought. I dont care what model of pos T-commiecrap tank you have with shit training... have fun playing with those.
Since when do you speak Polish?
since Babelfish, probably ::)
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 19, 2014, 05:33:41 AM
since Babelfish, probably ::)
LOL!
Interesting article, but I still think Ralph Peters was correct when he wrote in Red Army that if it ever came to war with Russia, a large part of NATO would find a compelling reason not to honor their obligations.
the Russian army today aint what it used to be.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 19, 2014, 03:45:13 PM
the Russian army today aint what it used to be.
They are trying to remake it.
The Russians would have you believe it is better now than it has ever been.
they simply cant afford their own equipment and the training time.
Star is right on this. We ain't talking about the Rompin' Stompin' Red Army anymore, Putin propaganda machine aside.
Is Russia on the gold standard? Is there something wrong with their printing press? For our countries it's the third rail for a politician to create inflation. For them I doubt they care. I seem to remember an economic crisis maybe 15 years back where Russia flat out said they were defaulting on their debts. The knock on which was unexpected over here was the LTCM hedge fund went under needing a bailout. Without the bailout our markets would have crumbled.
This troubles Putin how? ???
thats a bit different from spending hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
the 2008 bailout we had was a one shot deal ::) for $700 billion.
we spend that every year and adjusted for inflation its a small fucking US military budget.
Russia spent $87 billion. broke ass bitches...
they have 16 Blackjack bombers in service. 16 I would have to check but I think we have more bombers on loan to NASA and JPL then they have their premier bomber.
forget bombers... something more practicle.
we have more Burke class destroyers then their entire navy combined including logistics ships and trawlers and I can count operational subs on my fingers and toes.
the one card they have is nukes. but we have space planes, lasers, missile interceptors and God damn sharks with laser attached to their heads.
oh, and 14 years of continuous applied combat experience and a training regime like no other.
The US military is of course far more capable. That is not the question. The issue of the thread is how hard is it to defend the baltics if Russia does something stupid? I think Russia would get the experience of a road kill skunk. They make a big stink which is quite unpleasant. The second issue is has their military improved? I would say, as an ignorant civie, yes. If there is reason to think they are worse or he same as at the fall of the USSR make the case.
I think their military has a few very good units and formations in it. I also think thats a holdover from Soviet doctrine that overall hasnt served them well. they lost a Tu-22 over Georgia. that's akin to us losing a B-52 over Afghanistan. there is some excellent kit that they have but not in the numbers they need nor in the training to make the full use of it. their real world budget precludes it and the graft and corruption are legendary. now they can take the Baltic states and the Ukraine if nobody does anything. the real world result of that is galvanizing Europe into a new Cold War which the Russians wont be able to win. the west will bankrupt the fuckers again. they simply cant turn their economy up that high. its the biggest country in the world with half the population of the US. Japan has 20 million less and its a friking island.
so push comes to shove ok.
NATO vs Russia.
with US and NATO airpower vs whats currently the state of the Russian Air Force facing a wall of countries that now use Leopard 2a4 and 5s and a bunch of 6's and the main MBT. many crews of which have recently had combat tours in shitty sandboxes. from a wargamers point of view, I'll play that game. >:D
hmmm
how many F-22's can fly out of Bitburg? :2funny:
its all very fanboyish and fun to gloat but the foundation of the issue isnt about the battlefield. its about the political will to do whats in your countries best interest.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 20, 2014, 12:14:32 AM
The issue of the thread is how hard is it to defend the baltics if Russia does something stupid
I think a lot would depend on how Norway, Sweden, Finland and Poland reacted to it. IMHO Poland is having an Israeli experience and has been for a while. beside the national pride they are determined to not let the bullshit of the WW2 and Warsaw Pact experience taint their lives again. the idea of Never Again is known to them. theyve got 230 or so Leopards right now. have fun with that Russia.
I would also point out that the vast majority of weapons we use today were specifically designed to defend Europe from the Commie hordes coming west in overwhelming force. they were designed to kill them quickly and in great numbers.
well, we still have that edge and they no longer have those numbers.
...but now we have the cancer of overdone Political Correctness , Collateral Damage and even 1kt nukes are not an option, and the home front is as weak as it gets compared to WW2 (Allies side).
a tiny tiny skirmish today (Ukraine for example) where two or three enemy! soldiers got killed nowadays get reported to our homefront as the Fearsome Battle of city xxx ...including a homestory of the relatives of those killed enemy soldier including sobbing wife and confused toddler ... so the Peace Marcher crowd will have a field day, and are sooner in DC, Berlin and London streets than a Leo close to Königsberg can shift into first gear.... there will be talks, talks, talks, ... and it will end like Ukraine.
That the Polish preemptive defense strike across the border to help the small Baltic states with a flanking attack is possible, but if Putins send a secret diplomatic letter 'only the Baltic, Poland will be save, I guarantee!' ...Poland may be very reluctant and perfer to dig in on there own turf
In Germany the big left-green crowd will do sit-ins infront of the barracks (and worser stuff done by the agents, and 'activists') and block the logistic chains, NATO treaty or not...
Also sooner or later NATO may have to use small tactical nukes on the stagering areas and logistic chain and that is very risky business once this line get crossed.
^There's always Fuel-Air explosives instead. Sounds much better in the papers than 'tactical nuke'.
If Poland performed a pre-emptive strike on Russia to defend the Baltics I would eat my hat.
Gus, the 'preemptive' i meant was hours before Russia cross into the Baltic states , of course Russia would put a big task force on the Polish border cause of that possibility (flank securing force), but those divisons are bound in that way and are missing in other areas of the Baltic...
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 20, 2014, 12:39:36 AM
its all very fanboyish and fun to gloat but the foundation of the issue isnt about the battlefield. its about the political will to do whats in your countries best interest.
Again, this nails it. It's not a question of military capability in defending the Baltics. The capability is there. The will may be lacking.
All this agreeing with you is becoming awkward, Star.
Is there any serious talk of establishing a "permanent" NATO base in Poland... maybe Lithuania? Neither country borders Russia, but would put NATO (specifically thinking American, British, and Canadian) air and ground forces closer to intervening against any Russian incursion into Estonia or Latvia.
Quote from: Staggerwing on May 20, 2014, 06:23:31 AM
^There's always Fuel-Air explosives instead. Sounds much better in the papers than 'tactical nuke'.
It's not the same, you need a pretty safe sky to fly a lumbering cargo plane over it.
Quote from: mirth on May 20, 2014, 08:10:57 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 20, 2014, 12:39:36 AM
its all very fanboyish and fun to gloat but the foundation of the issue isnt about the battlefield. its about the political will to do whats in your countries best interest.
Again, this nails it. It's not a question of military capability in defending the Baltics. The capability is there. The will may be lacking.
All this agreeing with you is becoming awkward, Star.
Political will changes when allies are being invaded. Peacenicks start getting personal pressure, as in a bloody nose, or a car on fire.
It really is almost inconcievable to me that Russia would try to take the Baltics. The risk to the country is way too high for the benefit. It will not happen. Ukraine, the Stans, rebuild for the future. That is how it will go if it progresses further.
One thing the Baltics better start doing is embrace European culture in a big way. Speaking, acting like Russian culture will be asking for trouble.
Ban vodka. That will keep the fuckers out.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 20, 2014, 09:36:28 AM
One thing the Baltics better start doing is embrace European culture in a big way. Speaking, acting like Russian culture will be asking for trouble.
Ban vodka. That will keep the fuckers out.
Good call. :coolsmiley:
Quote from: MikeGER on May 20, 2014, 03:34:02 AM
That the Polish preemptive defense strike across the border to help the small Baltic states with a flanking attack is possible, but if Putins send a secret diplomatic letter 'only the Baltic, Poland will be save, I guarantee!' ...Poland may be very reluctant and perfer to dig in on there own turf
In Germany the big left-green crowd will do sit-ins infront of the barracks (and worser stuff done by the agents, and 'activists') and block the logistic chains, NATO treaty or not...
Also sooner or later NATO may have to use small tactical nukes on the stagering areas and logistic chain and that is very risky business once this line get crossed.
Poland is now the most hawkish on the Ukraine and if the Russkies sent so much as a fucking dog across into the Baltic states it would be screaming for a military response. No quiet letter from Russia would have any effect as the history teaches never to believe in anything they say. We would hope that the Germans would finally grow a pair, now that they are finally on the side of the good guys.
Ultimately it is the US reaction that counts for the most.
Even if the Russians managed to overrun the Baltic's it would not be able to hold on to it for long and the final result would be the loss of Crimea, Kaliningrad, and all those areas in Georgia.
For now they will make trouble in Ukraine in order to consolidate Crimea. Nowhere does it say that they should succeed.
Considering not that long ago a Russian pilot flew most of the Polish Government into a mountain, they have to see Russian aggression in Ukraine as more fucking with neighboring states. No doubt they are hawkish.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 20, 2014, 09:36:28 AM
One thing the Baltics better start doing is embrace European culture in a big way. Speaking, acting like Russian culture will be asking for trouble.
Ban vodka. That will keep the fuckers out.
They have embraced it in the big way already. Russian is no really spoken by locals apart from ethnic Russians. And why would you ban a Polish drink?
re: Kaliningrad
who the hell wants it?
The Poles have the most contiguous territory, but it's never really been "Polish" as it's always had a major ethnic German population.
The Germans seemed uninterested any of the 3 times they had a chance to take it, and I think the post-WWI geography of it all makes them a little nervous.
There's a lot of Russian "immigrants" but they're all at most 2 generations deep, so no long historical ties to the area.
Independence? Doesn't seem to be a major move for it.
So what do you do with it?
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 21, 2014, 10:32:12 AM
re: Kaliningrad
who the hell wants it?
The Poles have the most contiguous territory, but it's never really been "Polish" as it's always had a major ethnic German population.
The Germans seemed uninterested any of the 3 times they had a chance to take it, and I think the post-WWI geography of it all makes them a little nervous.
There's a lot of Russian "immigrants" but they're all at most 2 generations deep, so no long historical ties to the area.
Independence? Doesn't seem to be a major move for it.
So what do you do with it?
Russkies out, the territory split between Poland and Lithuania. Simples.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 20, 2014, 09:24:40 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on May 20, 2014, 06:23:31 AM
^There's always Fuel-Air explosives instead. Sounds much better in the papers than 'tactical nuke'.
It's not the same, you need a pretty safe sky to fly a lumbering cargo plane over it.
We don't have tomahawk-capable FAE's?
Somebody should write a sternly worded letter to the arms industry! What's the point of having one if they keep missing out on weapons?
Quote from: pawelj on May 21, 2014, 10:35:50 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 21, 2014, 10:32:12 AM
re: Kaliningrad
who the hell wants it?
The Poles have the most contiguous territory, but it's never really been "Polish" as it's always had a major ethnic German population.
The Germans seemed uninterested any of the 3 times they had a chance to take it, and I think the post-WWI geography of it all makes them a little nervous.
There's a lot of Russian "immigrants" but they're all at most 2 generations deep, so no long historical ties to the area.
Independence? Doesn't seem to be a major move for it.
So what do you do with it?
Russkies out, the territory split between Poland and Lithuania. Simples.
you might want to ask the people living there what they want to do before you just tell them :)
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 21, 2014, 10:59:30 AM
Quote from: pawelj on May 21, 2014, 10:35:50 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 21, 2014, 10:32:12 AM
re: Kaliningrad
who the hell wants it?
The Poles have the most contiguous territory, but it's never really been "Polish" as it's always had a major ethnic German population.
The Germans seemed uninterested any of the 3 times they had a chance to take it, and I think the post-WWI geography of it all makes them a little nervous.
There's a lot of Russian "immigrants" but they're all at most 2 generations deep, so no long historical ties to the area.
Independence? Doesn't seem to be a major move for it.
So what do you do with it?
Russkies out, the territory split between Poland and Lithuania. Simples.
you might want to ask the people living there what they want to do before you just tell them :)
Or asking the people that live there who the hell wants it. :)
I'm not convinced that Germany is on the side of the good guys this time.
Quote from: pawelj on May 21, 2014, 10:35:50 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 21, 2014, 10:32:12 AM
re: Kaliningrad
who the hell wants it?
The Poles have the most contiguous territory, but it's never really been "Polish" as it's always had a major ethnic German population.
The Germans seemed uninterested any of the 3 times they had a chance to take it, and I think the post-WWI geography of it all makes them a little nervous.
There's a lot of Russian "immigrants" but they're all at most 2 generations deep, so no long historical ties to the area.
Independence? Doesn't seem to be a major move for it.
So what do you do with it?
Russkies out, the territory split between Poland and Lithuania. Simples.
Can't do that the Meerkat's are Russians...although not ethnic Russians... Simples... if you follow the ads... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYa_1Lv6bXE
Quote from: Boggit on May 23, 2014, 11:31:48 PM
Quote from: pawelj on May 21, 2014, 10:35:50 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 21, 2014, 10:32:12 AM
re: Kaliningrad
who the hell wants it?
The Poles have the most contiguous territory, but it's never really been "Polish" as it's always had a major ethnic German population.
The Germans seemed uninterested any of the 3 times they had a chance to take it, and I think the post-WWI geography of it all makes them a little nervous.
There's a lot of Russian "immigrants" but they're all at most 2 generations deep, so no long historical ties to the area.
Independence? Doesn't seem to be a major move for it.
So what do you do with it?
Russkies out, the territory split between Poland and Lithuania. Simples.
Can't do that the Meerkat's are Russians...although not ethnic Russians... Simples... if you follow the ads... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYa_1Lv6bXE
Obviously only UK residents would get it. ;)
Quote from: MikeGER on May 20, 2014, 03:34:02 AM
...but now we have the cancer of overdone Political Correctness , Collateral Damage and even 1kt nukes are not an option, and the home front is as weak as it gets compared to WW2 (Allies side).
a tiny tiny skirmish today (Ukraine for example) where two or three enemy! soldiers got killed nowadays get reported to our homefront as the Fearsome Battle of city xxx ...including a homestory of the relatives of those killed enemy soldier including sobbing wife and confused toddler ... so the Peace Marcher crowd will have a field day, and are sooner in DC, Berlin and London streets than a Leo close to Königsberg can shift into first gear.... there will be talks, talks, talks, ... and it will end like Ukraine.
That the Polish preemptive defense strike across the border to help the small Baltic states with a flanking attack is possible, but if Putins send a secret diplomatic letter 'only the Baltic, Poland will be save, I guarantee!' ...Poland may be very reluctant and perfer to dig in on there own turf
In Germany the big left-green crowd will do sit-ins infront of the barracks (and worser stuff done by the agents, and 'activists') and block the logistic chains, NATO treaty or not...
Also sooner or later NATO may have to use small tactical nukes on the stagering areas and logistic chain and that is very risky business once this line get crossed.
Im not sure the polish trust the russians further then they can spit, and they deff. Arent stupid enough to not connect the dots. First Ukraine, then the balkans, then .... WHO ?
Why I think that if NATO is serious in sending a message to the Russians, then they/we need to forward deploy forces into Poland, Lithuania and Romania; as was done with West Germany after WWII.
We've just forward deployed 2 B-2s in England.
Russia sent 3 tanks into Ukraine. Since only the army has tanks that is the most blatant example of Russian aggression. I think an equally unmarked bombs from a unmarked F-16s should be used to take them out.
Quote from: pawelj on June 13, 2014, 07:06:57 AM
Russia sent 3 tanks into Ukraine. Since only the army has tanks that is the most blatant example of Russian aggression. I think an equally unmarked bombs from a unmarked F-16s should be used to take them out.
Umm...just thinking...three tanks crossing an international border sounds suspiciously like a lost LT, rather than an invasion.
The article said they crossed at a rebel controlled border checkpoint. It's hard to not notice passing that.
Not for a lost LT. You wouldn't believe some of the stories...
Any more news on these tanks? Maybe the 'lost' unit is being given to the rebels?
My response was mostly tongue-in-cheek. The incursion could very well be a deliberate provocation by the Russian government. It could also be something as simple as a stupid map-reading error by a junior officer. No reason to start a war until you know one way or the other.
The two best lessons I learned as a cadet:
1. The first report is always wrong
2. The truth lies somewhere in-between
Is there a Ukrainian response?
I haven't seen anything, but I would imagine this is a response to us sending B2s to England:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/13/us/u-s-russia-military-flights/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 (http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/13/us/u-s-russia-military-flights/index.html?hpt=hp_t2)
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on June 13, 2014, 01:16:17 PM
I haven't seen anything, but I would imagine this is a response to us sending B2s to England:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/13/us/u-s-russia-military-flights/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 (http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/13/us/u-s-russia-military-flights/index.html?hpt=hp_t2)
Back to the good ol' days. An old coworker who was in the RCAF did some patrol duty in Alaska with the USAF there. They saw those all the time.
That B2 is a very cool looking plane. 8)
Canadian Army training in Poland, June 2014. It's a start.
at the Drawsko Pomorskie training area-
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forces.gc.ca%2Fassets%2FFORCES_Internet%2Fimages%2Fhome%2Fgallery%2Forig%2Fjune11940.jpg&hash=89ddb1227310367a56f51e702fc89c0013aa13c0)
at the Oleszno training area-
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forces.gc.ca%2Fassets%2FFORCES_Internet%2Fimages%2Fhome%2Fgallery%2Forig%2FJune18940.jpg&hash=b36d216a06699a04b8e1269915e6264521474276)
Canadian soldiers receive Latvian jump wings after training in Latvia:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.combatcamera.forces.gc.ca%2Fnetpub%2Fserver.np%3Foriginal%3D63944%26amp%3Bsite%3Dcombatcamera%26amp%3Bcatalog%3Dphotos&hash=ecceccfec4d8c7c281ea15c93a129746bf30d760)
Thanks for posting, Centurion. Nice to see our troops training with our allies.