The Hoplite play book says this is the simplest scenario, but that doesn't mean it's easy to foresee the way things will go. I was sort of expecting
the Spartans and their allies to win eventually (as they did historically) despite being outnumbered. So what went wrong?
1) I set up both sides a bit too close (800 yds away) so
2) The Spartans moved up into range in a ragged line (everyone trotted up like well-trained Spartans, but two phalanxes lagged at a walk)
3)The Theban cavalry confused things a bit
4) fearing further disruption the Spartans did not close to attack
5) The Athenians advanced -- almost half of them at the run and none walking (this was random -- pure good luck) and hit the ragged Spartan line
very hard while setting up a flanking situation as well
6) in the resulting shock actions and the routs that followed, three spartan-allied phalanxes collapsed and fled and the remainder weren't in good shape
7) and this is what that looked like: