According to Stephen Hawking:
http://www.space.com/8924-stephen-hawking-humanity-won-survive-leaving-earth.html (http://www.space.com/8924-stephen-hawking-humanity-won-survive-leaving-earth.html)
I am a HUGE proponent of that exact thing!! I've said it for several years now, we need to move into space! Baby steps, the moon first, then Mars. Then the asteroid belt and figure out from there how to go further.
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Isn't there a private Dutch program attempting to send a group of people to Mars right now?
Quote from: Gusington on February 25, 2015, 08:20:52 PM
Isn't there a private Dutch program attempting to send a group of people to Mars right now?
Even if true, that has disaster written all over it.
He's being very generous giving us 200 years. I'm betting we've got much shorter time than that given the horrible mess that's brewing in the world these days.
I'm of the same belief as my friend W8. If it's going to work, this shit needs to be getting started, NOW!
Quote from: MetalDog on February 25, 2015, 09:19:51 PM
I'm of the same belief as my friend W8. If it's going to work, this shit needs to be getting started, NOW!
Are there credible studies that establish guidelines as to the minimum breeding population needed to sustain a healthy human presence beyond the Earth, whether at an orbit-station, moon base, Mars colony, or beyond?
There have been predictions that "the end is nigh" since we've had people to predict.
Smart as Hawking is I would bet against him. Might things get ugly? Sure.
Extinction? No way.
That doesn't mean we should be satisfied with the way things are going, but I'm not worried about our fate in two centuries.
I think humans are like roaches...you'll never be able to wipe all of us out.
I just finished reading a really good sci-fi series called "The Human Reach". Without giving away any major spoilers, mankind wasn't motivated to colonize other worlds until a very small asteroid struck Earth near Australia. In later years the asteroid strike, despite the loss of life it caused, was referred to as "The Blessing" because it made mankind take seriously our vulnerability as a species and sent us into space in a big way.
All too often nothing happens until our backs are against the wall, the clock is down to a few seconds, and disaster seems inevitable. Then we show what really innovative bastards we are. It would be nice if, for once, we did something before the end was truly nigh.
Quote from: Steelgrave on February 25, 2015, 09:59:37 PM
I just finished reading a really good sci-fi series called "The Human Reach". Without giving away any major spoilers, mankind wasn't motivated to colonize other worlds until a very small asteroid struck Earth near Australia. In later years the asteroid strike, despite the loss of life it caused, was referred to as "The Blessing" because it made mankind take seriously our vulnerability as a species and sent us into space in a big way.
All too often nothing happens until our backs are against the wall, the clock is down to a few seconds, and disaster seems inevitable. Then we show what really innovative bastards we are. It would be nice if, for once, we did something before the end was truly nigh.
YES! THIS! It's our inability to see that we are down to those last precious seconds that makes a move in to space needed RIGHT NOW! 200 hundred years may BE the last few seconds. And if that's true, then the structure we put in place now will make us ready for then. None of what gets us out there is going to be a)cheap, b)easy or c)popular. The baby steps we are going to have to take will require LOADS of time and capital. If I was prone to wishing, I would wish the people of the world would realize the one-ness of purpose it will take and put aside our prejudice and hatred. We can bring them in to space with us for all I care, jut GET CRACK-A-LACKIN'!!!
Quote from: Gusington on February 25, 2015, 08:20:52 PM
Isn't there a private Dutch program attempting to send a group of people to Mars right now?
pot heads in space.... what could go wrong?
Quote from: Steelgrave on February 25, 2015, 09:59:37 PM
All too often nothing happens until our backs are against the wall, the clock is down to a few seconds, and disaster seems inevitable. Then we show what really innovative bastards we are. It would be nice if, for once, we did something before the end was truly nigh.
the problem is we mostly all have that experience of fobbing off a semester of study until the weekend before finals and nailing them.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 25, 2015, 11:11:57 PM
Quote from: Steelgrave on February 25, 2015, 09:59:37 PM
All too often nothing happens until our backs are against the wall, the clock is down to a few seconds, and disaster seems inevitable. Then we show what really innovative bastards we are. It would be nice if, for once, we did something before the end was truly nigh.
the problem is we mostly all have that experience of fobbing off a semester of study until the weekend before finals and nailing them.
Some of us have vision - as proven here.
The problem is that, in evolutionary terms, the few of us who recognize the problem aren't necessarily able to overcome it as individuals (as would be the case in "normal" evolution). The resources needed to go to the mood exceed the ability of 50 or 100 or 1000 of us.
The good news? If we survive to such a point those of us with foresight are most likely to survive.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 25, 2015, 11:30:03 PM
The resources needed to go to the mood exceed the ability of 50 or 100 or 1000 of us.
how much aveeno do you need to get into the mood man?
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 25, 2015, 11:32:02 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 25, 2015, 11:30:03 PM
The resources needed to go to the mood exceed the ability of 50 or 100 or 1000 of us.
how much aveeno do you need to get into the mood man?
A lot more if you're in the picture.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 25, 2015, 09:35:08 PM
That doesn't mean we should be satisfied with the way things are going, but I'm not worried about our fate in two centuries.
indeed i concentrate on the next two month, two years, two maybe three decades ...if they find a way to store my mind in an android and or 'refresh' the human body then i start worrying for longer times ;) O0
Hawking left out of the equitation that humans are maybe just an evolutionary step to
intelligent bio-mechanical life forms who can draw energy and survive much easier in the harsh and wide environment of the universe
when does the computational power / neural network reach the complexity ...to develop consciousness and awake?
We roll our eyes when the countdown gets to 3...2...1... on the big screen moments before Captain Kirk or even Tom Cruise saves the day. God rolls His eyes at us because, in reality....that's exactly what we do.
When I was ten, watching Apollo 11 land on the moon, eagerly awaiting Star Trek every Thursday night, I just knew that by the time I was 40 (an unimaginably old age to contemplate), I would be stepping into a Robert Heinlein universe. After we landed on the Moon, we were the high school football hero, celebrating, high-fiveing and banging the head cheerleader after the big game....only to take vows of celibacy the morning after.
Man, did we ever get off track or what?
Exactly! If space flight had followed the same progression path as manned flight we'd have colonized half of the solar system by now.... :tickedoff:
We should already be using a manned moon base as the starting point for reaching other planets... instead we built the next to useless ISS.
We need to get a shit together right now if there's any chance to get off this tiny ball of dirt. Waiting until we NEED to get off the planet will be way too late.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 25, 2015, 09:35:08 PM
There have been predictions that "the end is nigh" since we've had people to predict.
Smart as Hawking is I would bet against him. Might things get ugly? Sure.
Extinction? No way.
That doesn't mean we should be satisfied with the way things are going, but I'm not worried about our fate in two centuries.
Agreed.
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Meh. We've had a good run as a species.
Quote from: Barthheart on February 26, 2015, 08:13:04 AM
Exactly! If space flight had followed the same progression path as manned flight we'd have colonized half of the solar system by now.... :tickedoff:
We should already be using a manned moon base as the starting point for reaching other planets... instead we built the next to useless ISS.
We need to get a shit together right now if there's any chance to get off this tiny ball of dirt. Waiting until we NEED to get off the planet will be way too late.
IIRC we stopped sending people to the moon because it got boring. At least that's what I've read (don't have the source - this resides as a fragment of memory from something).
When folks quit thinking travel to the moon was a big deal they pulled the plug.
Bummer, as I'd have preferred to be commanding a starship (instead of a pewter armada) if given the opportunity.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 08:46:17 AM
Quote from: Barthheart on February 26, 2015, 08:13:04 AM
Exactly! If space flight had followed the same progression path as manned flight we'd have colonized half of the solar system by now.... :tickedoff:
We should already be using a manned moon base as the starting point for reaching other planets... instead we built the next to useless ISS.
We need to get a shit together right now if there's any chance to get off this tiny ball of dirt. Waiting until we NEED to get off the planet will be way too late.
IIRC we stopped sending people to the moon because it got boring. At least that's what I've read (don't have the source - this resides as a fragment of memory from something).
When folks quit thinking travel to the moon was a big deal they pulled the plug.
Bummer, as I'd have preferred to be commanding a starship (instead of a pewter armada) if given the opportunity.
It got boring because they had no plan on what to do once they got there. All they did was go there and bring back some rocks.
They should have begin a program somewhat like was described here: lob a bunch of prefab buildings at the moon, send guys up to put them together until you have a viable place to live.
This is exactly what they did to build the ISS but it was in low earth obit and pretty much useless as a space base.
We are screwed as a species if we don't get off this tiny little world..... and soon.....
I think what is being overlooked is that most, if not all, of the great pushes of exploration and colonization in human history were motivated by potential economic gain, not altruistic motivations.
If there were gold, diamonds, or oil abundant on Mars, that could cost effectively be exploited, we'd be there.
Everything we're talking about now would cost vast sums of money with no potential ROI.
Greed will get us to the stars.
I agree with that sentiment, mirth. But I would think that greed was already in place. You would think that mineral wealth would be abundant on the moon, Mars AND the asteroid belt. That's why I am perplexed as to why there aren't people clamoring to get out there. Whether it be governments OR private citizens. Besides, if we focus on getting out there, it will take a laser like focus to do it. That leaves less time and effort to killing ourselves down here.
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 08:58:27 AM
I think what is being overlooked is that most, if not all, of the great pushes of exploration and colonization in human history were motivated by potential economic gain, not altruistic motivations.
If there were gold, diamonds, or oil abundant on Mars, that could cost effectively be exploited, we'd be there.
Everything we're talking about now would cost vast sums of money with no potential ROI.
Greed will get us to the stars.
Excellent point. Greed - or the need for some other resource.
That's what makes a one-way trip to Mars so crazy - there is no compelling reason for us to do it. Those folks are going to get bored quickly IMHO.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 09:11:58 AM
That's what makes a one-way trip to Mars so crazy - there is no compelling reason for us to do it. Those folks are going to get bored quickly IMHO.
There will be a burgeoning Martian porn industry.
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 09:31:32 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 09:11:58 AM
That's what makes a one-way trip to Mars so crazy - there is no compelling reason for us to do it. Those folks are going to get bored quickly IMHO.
There will be a burgeoning Martian porn industry.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner!
Quote from: Steelgrave on February 26, 2015, 09:45:09 AM
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 09:31:32 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 09:11:58 AM
That's what makes a one-way trip to Mars so crazy - there is no compelling reason for us to do it. Those folks are going to get bored quickly IMHO.
There will be a burgeoning Martian porn industry.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner!
Let me guess: Two Girls, One Planet.
It boggles my mind to think how far we COULD be now if it weren't for ignorance and if we actually all did work together as a species. Think of how far back our species has been held by idiocy.
Ugh, that was awfully close to liberal sentiment, if not right over the line itself.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 10:24:17 AM
Quote from: Steelgrave on February 26, 2015, 09:45:09 AM
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 09:31:32 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 09:11:58 AM
That's what makes a one-way trip to Mars so crazy - there is no compelling reason for us to do it. Those folks are going to get bored quickly IMHO.
There will be a burgeoning Martian porn industry.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner!
Let me guess: Two Girls, One Planet.
Red Planet Diaries.
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 10:54:28 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 10:24:17 AM
Quote from: Steelgrave on February 26, 2015, 09:45:09 AM
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 09:31:32 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 09:11:58 AM
That's what makes a one-way trip to Mars so crazy - there is no compelling reason for us to do it. Those folks are going to get bored quickly IMHO.
There will be a burgeoning Martian porn industry.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner!
Let me guess: Two Girls, One Planet.
Red Planet Diaries.
50 Shades of Red.
Quote from: Barthheart on February 26, 2015, 10:55:20 AM
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 10:54:28 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 10:24:17 AM
Quote from: Steelgrave on February 26, 2015, 09:45:09 AM
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 09:31:32 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 09:11:58 AM
That's what makes a one-way trip to Mars so crazy - there is no compelling reason for us to do it. Those folks are going to get bored quickly IMHO.
There will be a burgeoning Martian porn industry.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner!
Let me guess: Two Girls, One Planet.
Red Planet Diaries.
50 Shades of Red.
Marcy Does Mars.
I think we have a viable funding mechanism for Mars colonization.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 10:56:37 AM
Quote from: Barthheart on February 26, 2015, 10:55:20 AM
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 10:54:28 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 10:24:17 AM
Quote from: Steelgrave on February 26, 2015, 09:45:09 AM
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 09:31:32 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 26, 2015, 09:11:58 AM
That's what makes a one-way trip to Mars so crazy - there is no compelling reason for us to do it. Those folks are going to get bored quickly IMHO.
There will be a burgeoning Martian porn industry.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner!
Let me guess: Two Girls, One Planet.
Red Planet Diaries.
50 Shades of Red.
Marcy Does Mars.
Featuring Marvin the Martian.
Jokes about red spots are not funny. Period.
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 08:58:27 AM
I think what is being overlooked is that most, if not all, of the great pushes of exploration and colonization in human history were motivated by potential economic gain, not altruistic motivations.
If there were gold, diamonds, or oil abundant on Mars, that could cost effectively be exploited, we'd be there.
Everything we're talking about now would cost vast sums of money with no potential ROI.
Greed will get us to the stars.
Amen
Nail on the head, Mirth. Unfortunately exploration for exploration's sake is not an overriding desire anymore.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on February 26, 2015, 11:26:52 AM
Nail on the head, Mirth. Unfortunately exploration for exploration's sake is not an overriding desire anymore.
I don't think it ever really was. Even in the 1950s/ 60s it was about staying ahead of the Sovs.
I guess you could make the case for the likes of Byrd, Amundsen & Shackelton. Guess we need the next generation of those guys.
The "little guys" like us dream of space exploration. The "big guys" unfortunately do not share that same dream.
I'd much rather my tax dollars go to paying for moon or Mars colonization (or exploration of Europa) than to some Democratic waste of tax dollars. Or to lobbying groups, election contributions, etc. etc. - so many other good uses for that kind of money.
Hmmm...good points by you guys but let's just say there is a zombie outbreak that covers the planet. Who among what's left of the living is gonna have time to invent a magic rocket ship to save humanity and take them to Alpha Centauri?
We've never possessed so much destructive power in our history than now and I'm not even including WMDs. I'm not saying the end is nigh, but to give us 200+ years is still kind of generous to me.
Every time I look around the office, I figure the zombies have won and it's just a matter of time before they notice me.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on February 26, 2015, 11:51:08 AM
The "little guys" like us dream of space exploration. The "big guys" unfortunately do not share that same dream.
I'd much rather my tax dollars go to paying for moon or Mars colonization (or exploration of Europa) than to some Democratic waste of tax dollars. Or to lobbying groups, election contributions, etc. etc. - so many other good uses for that kind of money.
What was it that Ripley said to Carter Burke in Aliens, "At least they're not fucking each other over for a percentage"?
The future of Extraterrestrial colonization is simple:
Survivor Mars
The ratings will be out of this world.
Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 06:23:12 PM
The future of Extraterrestrial colonization is simple:
Survivor Mars
The ratings will be out of this world.
A job as a CBS Exec is waiting for you!
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Quote from: mirth on February 26, 2015, 06:11:37 PM
Every time I look around the office, I figure the zombies have won and it's just a matter of time before they notice me.
Ha!
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Quote from: MikeGER on February 26, 2015, 04:16:23 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 25, 2015, 09:35:08 PM
That doesn't mean we should be satisfied with the way things are going, but I'm not worried about our fate in two centuries.
indeed i concentrate on the next two month, two years, two maybe three decades ...if they find a way to store my mind in an android and or 'refresh' the human body then i start worrying for longer times ;) O0
Hawking left out of the equitation that humans are maybe just an evolutionary step to intelligent bio-mechanical life forms who can draw energy and survive much easier in the harsh and wide environment of the universe
;D
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Quote from: MetalDog on February 25, 2015, 09:19:51 PM
I'm of the same belief as my friend W8. If it's going to work, this shit needs to be getting started, NOW!
I have just the game for you - Fate of the World, by Red Redemption. Actually it's a pretty good game - if a little depressing at times. Space programs aiming to provide solutions to resource issues and overpopulation is a feature of it.
http://www.gamesforchange.org/play/fate-of-the-world/
As someone who has recently watched around 98% of the Gundam series (also I spent a night in a Holiday Inn Express once ;) ), let me be the first person in this thread to remind everyone:
SPACE IS UTTERLY DEADLY!
A point often forgotten to make the plots work even in the Gundam series. But not a point that can be plausibly forgotten in real life. There was NEVER going to be a moon base, much less a Mars base (or a Venus base or a base on some asteroid past Mars or a base out at Jupiter); because even working independently sustainable satellite populations in near Earth orbit are not viable and for all practical purposes never will be without what amounts to magic.
Could any of a handful of things happen to shatter the planet or otherwise wipe out humanity? Sure. Could any of a larger set of things whack human civilization back down to the point where the survivors have to start over from scratch? Sure.
The fact is still that this planet is a biome where independent populations of animal and plant species (much moreso rational species) can survive and thrive; and even then the parameters of operation are fairly thin.
Research for relatively protracted survival in space conditions, is good for pretty much one thing: learning new ways to operate more efficiently in an actual biome. That was, in actual fact, what the various space programs provided as a benefit to various human societies, and is a significant reason why we're living in the world we live in today. (Personal computers being perhaps the most prevalent contribution to come from those projects but far from the only one.)
Living in our oceans would be only slightly less of an ongoing risk of fatal catastrophe, but would have three enormous advantages of (a) not having to deal with the vast distances and speeds involved in living in even sub-lunary space; (b) being workable biospheres for other many forms of life somewhat similar to ours (so at least we have some conversion potential to work with); and (c) providing access to all kinds of resources that have some hope of being feasibly capitalized.
And yet, we aren't going there either. Because, as submariners know, it's freaking deadly to human life. Whereas, even sub-lunary and near-orbit space is freaking deadly to ALL LIFE by comparison and contrast.
This is like hoping for flying cars some day in the future. We have flying cars already. We've had them since the 50s. They aren't even all that expensive to buy, if you want one (though you'd either have to put it together or pay somewhat more for someone else to do so.) We've had decades of experience operating and refining them. They're called helicopters. Why doesn't everyone have a helicopter now? Because the energy consumption to get it to do what it does is inefficient compared to automobiles (and ships), and because they're freaking deadly. But not anywhere near as deadly as surviving in space is, or will be.
I know many people here are either directly or indirectly involved with a navy, or an air force, civilian or military or both. We've had naval craft for thousands of years, and submarines for a little more than a hundred. Why aren't we living on floating cities, whether air or sea, or in cities under the waves yet? Is it because we lack the drive and dedication to deal with the challenges provided by such environments hostile to human life? No, obviously not. The rational art and innovation we've shown so far in doing what we've been able to do is literally beyond speech, beyond human capacity to even adequately summarize in writing. And, not incidentally, the benefits provided by learning to efficiently operate in those conditions (and in somewhat less hostile terran conditions like near polar regions), have also greatly enhanced human societies.
But there is no good reason to expect to be able to create an independently functioning human biome off planet when we can't even do so in our atmosphere or oceans (or even upon the oceans) yet.
And precisely in studying what we can do in regard to living on and in the oceans and atmosphere of Earth, indicates there are exponentially difficult limits to break through, maybe strongly impossible limits, to how much farther we can go with that.
Captain Buzzkill....
Space: the final buzzkill. >:D
Being realistic about it does have the advantage of providing clear channels of habitation research necessary to have even the slightest chance of beginning to survive in space. We can work on those channels, too, at vastly much less cost, and with greater direct efficiency of re-investing technology results (and capital gain, for that matter, where applicable.)
10.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations on various moons of Saturn, we might be close to being ready to send out one way county-sized ships on a generational project to the next nearest star.
9.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations on various moons of Jupiter, we might be close to being ready to do so on various moons of Saturn (with preparatory orbital stations).
8.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations in orbital stations near Jupiter, we might be close to being ready to do so on various moons of Jupiter.
7.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations in the asteroid belt, we might be close to being ready to do so in orbital stations near Jupiter.
6.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations on Mars, we might be close to being ready to do so in the asteroid belt.
5.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations on the Moon, we might be close to being ready to do so on Mars.
4.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations at safe sub-lunary distances, we might be close to being ready to do so on the Moon.
3.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations under the oceans, we might be close to being ready to do so in near-Earth orbit. But more likely for safety regions (to keep a near-Earth county-sized mass from falling at orbital speeds), it would be at a trailing sub-lunary distance.
2.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations in the worst surface deserts, including high mountain regions, we might be close to being ready to do so under the oceans.
1.) When we're able to create self-sustaining county-sized human populations on the oceans (maybe including polar regions, certainly including weird weather regions like at the equator), we might be close to being ready to do so in the worst surface deserts.
Obviously, step 1 is step 1.
I'm not overly optimistic about step 2 being achievable in 200 years. But step 1 might be. Maybe.
A 10 year old could come to the same conclusion as Hawking in that video...you don't need to be a genius. This is common sense.
Fine. All of you killjoys can get off my planet. More soylent green for the rest of us...
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Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 07, 2015, 09:32:36 PM
A 10 year old could come to the same conclusion as Hawking in that video...you don't need to be a genius. This is common sense.
Pretty much the key to being recognized as a super genius. Saying things that 10 year olds know, but most 30 year olds don't.