http://projects21.com/2015/03/11/the-new-long-war-with-russia/
There is a lot in this piece that is reasonable. In particular how our politicians are on a cyclical crack-the-whip to stay in office.
Very good article. My only doubt is if they are trying to secure their territory or are trying to be expansionist. If the latter, a path to Crimea would be just an appetizer.
Edit:
Clarifying that, the military analysis is great. Rasputin thinks as KGB, not in a military focus. His goal is not the defense of mother Russia, it is regaining Eurasian hegemony, then personally controlling it.
That site has a talk by Joseph Nye Apr 2 on the front page. Go, if it is convenient.
Sanctions analysis.
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43895.pdf
Again, he does not really care about the finances, whatever they do to constrain him.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 15, 2015, 12:26:29 PM
Sanctions analysis.
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43895.pdf
Again, he does not really care about the finances, whatever they do to constrain him.
Yes, but some of his cronies do.
He will expect personal loyalty, backed by the threat of his intelligence services. He will do as he pleases.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 15, 2015, 07:14:38 PM
He will expect personal loyalty, backed by the threat of his intelligence services. He will do as he pleases.
Some of his GRU/KGB/FSB guys may also take the long view and play the long game. He can't be sure to a fault.
The only problem with carrot and stick economic strategy, is that the carrot essentially rewards Putin for having taken the initiative and holding a nation hostage by military means -- even if he gives it back for the carrot, the next time he wants a carrot he kidnaps a nation again -- and any stick strong enough to be meaningful as a threat, might as well be a military stick to someone whose economy is tottering in fragments.
Western analysis of Russia fails when it start assuming their leaders essentially think the same way as us, and will respond rationally.
Quote from: pawelj on March 22, 2015, 09:40:51 AM
Western analysis of Russia fails when it start assuming their leaders essentially think the same way as us, and will respond rationally.
True; and even if they're thinking and responding rationally, it won't necessarily be the same way as us (according to their priorities, understanding of facts and values, etc.)