Strategic Forecasting, a private intelligence firm, has released their predictions for the next ten years. 11 sound bite sized pieces are in the article here:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/stratfor-has-11-chilling-predictions-for-what-the-world-will-look-like-a-decade-from-now/ar-AAbGEOZ?ocid=mailsignout#page=1
And the link to the full report is here:
https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2015-2025
So, what do you guys think?
I always like going back and seeing these thinktanks earlier predicitons Of course no one is really accurate with global events due to the inherent radomness here is their report from 2005 to 2015.
https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2005-2015
Highlights are
1. China suffers an economic meltdown (Every thinktank has been predicting this since the 1990s)
2. US Jihadist war is unrealistic to continue to 2015 :2funny:
3. Russia becomes a more authoritarian, state-dominated economy, coupled with intense efforts to recover its sphere of influence. (They nailed this one!)
4. US Economy and military continues (I could argue this either way but if you graph the trend it is broadly accurate even though there has been big swings up and down in the 10 years for both the economy and the military).
Bunch of bullshit... other than the last one.
Then there are other parts which sound rather ridiculous. Such as the "prediction" of Japan "becoming" a powerful naval force in Asia. They have been for awhile now, with a relatively large fleet of modern hi-tech warships. ::)
Quote from: Con on June 17, 2015, 10:23:13 PM3. Russia becomes a more authoritarian, state-dominated economy, coupled with intense efforts to recover its sphere of influence. (They nailed this one!)
Ironically, you could use this for Russia for any time except the reigns of Catherine the Great, and Stalin.
So you don't think any of those scenarios are plausible? Germany suffering from the effects of their export economy? Turkey's involvement in Syria and Iraq?
Quote from: MetalDog on June 17, 2015, 10:45:40 PM
So you don't think any of those scenarios are plausible? Germany suffering from the effects of their export economy? Turkey's involvement in Syria and Iraq?
I think in these discussions you have to be careful about the black swan events. Those unforeseen moments or discoveries that dramatically change the course of history. In Germanies case I read a recent report about the knock on effects of cheap energy (through US Fracking or maybe a fusion breakthrough). This would in fact dramatically accelerate Germaines Export Economy as other nations ramp up their middle class and manufacturing industries to more heavy machinery based economies.
Not saying this will happen but it is just as likely as the scenario laid out in the report.
Con
Bollocks. Some are pablum, some seem inbred. Those emerging countries for example, who is going to pay for their modernization? Seems like groupthink. Their populations are not geared for high quality factory work, they will revolt. China, with its worker bee mentality can press people into turning their lifestyle upside down. Other countries cannot.
Russia breaking up? Who thinks Putin will allow that? He will press the military to take control if necessary. Russia will only break up by revolt against a big war. Even that is unlikely, they typically line up to shed their mortal coil.
China is not going away as a world power. That is fantasy. They will move to double domestic consumption, letting the people benefit from their new found capitalism.
India and Brazil will continue their growth, they will be the new regional powers.
It's late and I need to read this with eyes that aren't ready for bed.
The first thing I see is a revamped website. Congrats to Stratfor for a new website and corresponding PR blast to attract eyeballs.
Beyond that I'll have to take a look in the morning but I would argue that "thinktank" is a bit of a big word to describe Stratfor. It used to be about five or six guys who (appeared) to dictate some bloviating into a voice recording that would be autotranscribed to their website while they were commuting to their real jobs in the morning.
Looking forward to reading this mañana
------------------------------
OK, Stratfor - I sometimes get them mixed up with another group. Stratfor actually has very sound analysis. Apologies for the mixup.
There are some not-so-obvious gems in there. It's analysis on the US's independence from international trade is interesting. I did not know that. The prediction that the US goes through 50 year cycles of crises is interesting. I'm not convinced that things are that clean, but their concern for the middle class is troubling.
Lots more to digest here. Will post more comments as I re-read through this in smaller chunks.
Quote11. US power will decline.
A low hanging fruit kind of prediction.
Quote6. Turkey and the US will have to be close allies but for an unexpected reason.
Unexpected? Really? So why is Turkey in NATO, then?
Quote5. There will be four Europes.
Kinda like the way is was in the 1960s.
Quote4. ... and Poland is going to be one of Europe's leaders.
Awesome!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.s-msn.com%2Ftenant%2Famp%2Fentityid%2FAAbGmDe.img%3Fh%3D489%26amp%3Bw%3D728%26amp%3Bm%3D6%26amp%3Bq%3D60%26amp%3Bo%3Df%26amp%3Bl%3Df%26amp%3Bx%3D283%26amp%3By%3D151&hash=c4216f7417cd81ad8d1ae85f3734d8998731eeaa)
Quote3. Germany is going to have problems ...
Again, low hanging fruit.
But this is a kind of problem I'd like to have!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.s-msn.com%2Ftenant%2Famp%2Fentityid%2FAAbGEUw.img%3Fh%3D459%26amp%3Bw%3D728%26amp%3Bm%3D6%26amp%3Bq%3D60%26amp%3Bo%3Df%26amp%3Bl%3Df%26amp%3Bx%3D422%26amp%3By%3D302&hash=f84e0d838eedcbdad285a79bcd86e5c809988b8f)
Quote1. Russia will collapse ...
Could happen, as they predict. But it will be ugly, as Vlad and his cronies battle the collapse.
Quote from: MetalDog on June 17, 2015, 10:45:40 PM
So you don't think any of those scenarios are plausible? Germany suffering from the effects of their export economy? Turkey's involvement in Syria and Iraq?
Most of it sounds like DOOM-think nonsense. A couple are already in motion, as mentioned.
Whomever this group is must've just picked 40Cent's aforementioned "low hanging fruit" and then just tossed in some vague & desperate downfall theories that aren't likely, to spice it up with more DOOM!1.
But if there was no doom, then we wouldn't be paying any attention to it!
I feel the urge to make a crazy-assed prediction too!
The Chinese will broker a peace treaty between ISIS, the Shias, and the Kurds in return for cheap oil and guaranteed arms sales. ISIS will establish itself as a Sunni Arab state "The Islamic State of the Levant" (expediently & temporarily dropping the term "caliphate"), taking territory from Syria and Iraq. Assad will consolidate his control over western Syria. The Iraqi Shias will form the Islamic Republic of Iraq, and immediately sign a mutual defence treaty with Iran. Iraqi Kurdistan will formally coalesce into a nation-state, also including parts of Kurdish controlled Syria (but not as much as they would like, over Turkish objections).
Quote from: Centurion40 on June 18, 2015, 02:04:07 PM
I feel the urge to make a crazy-assed prediction too!
The Chinese will broker a peace treaty between ISIS, the Shias, and the Kurds in return for cheap oil and guaranteed arms sales. ISIS will establish itself as a Sunni Arab state "The Islamic State of the Levant" (expediently & temporarily dropping the term "caliphate"), taking territory from Syria and Iraq. Assad will consolidate his control over western Syria. The Iraqi Shias will form the Islamic Republic of Iraq, and immediately sign a mutual defence treaty with Iran. Iraqi Kurdistan will formally coalesce into a nation-state, also including parts of Kurdish controlled Syria (but not as much as they would like, over Turkish objections).
It's not crazy assed at all. It is a rational scenario. The big uncertainty is how Israel would respond to it, as a matter of pre-emptive self defence. This scenario implies an improved stability to its avowed enemies, who having made peace with their current protagonists are then free to make trouble for Israel. I can't see IS being satisfied with a status quo for long.
I want to Work with predicting the future. Its the only job where your never accountable for your Work.
Quote from: jejo68 on June 21, 2015, 03:50:36 AM
I want to Work with predicting the future. Its the only job where your never accountable for your Work.
Yep!
Meteorologist falls into this category, too.
^ Heh, back when I was in college, our meteorology professor liked to quip that to be a meteorologist you only had to be better at predicting the weather than a complete idiot: because a complete idiot can walk out the door and say tomorrow's weather will be the same as today, and 2/3 of the time he'll be right.
(Note: while I passed reasonably well both semesters, I was pretty sure I wasn't competent enough to be a meteorologist. Which is why I especially enjoy that quip. ;) )