Yikes
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/25/business/dealbook/daily-stock-market-activity.html
Everyone is saying to just 'do nothing' and everything will be peachy.
Oh sure. No big whoop.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/advice-after-stock-market-drop-take-some-deep-breaths-and-dont-do-a-thing.html
Quote from: Gusington on August 24, 2015, 10:07:42 AM
Everyone is saying to just 'do nothing' and everything will be peachy.
Dow fell 1000 early on but appears to have recovered about 800 of that loss.
QuoteGlobal economic-growth fears slammed Wall Street on Monday as U.S. equity markets plunged at the opening bell before clawing back more than 700 points.
As of 11:30 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 462 points, or 2.81% to 16004. The S&P 500 dropped 57 points, or 2.92% to 1913, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 126 points, or 2.69 % to 4579.
All ten S&P 500 sectors were deep in negative territory, with energy leading the way lower, dropping 3.78% in recent action.
source: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015/08/24/wall-street-set-to-plunge-amid-global-market-selloff/%20?intcmp=hpbt1
Think of this as a buying opportunity.
Quote from: Labbug on August 24, 2015, 10:46:31 AM
Think of this as a buying opportunity.
Yeah. I'm not sure the declines are quite done, but I'm thinking soon will be an excellent time to pick up some value stocks.
I was on a flight when markets opened today. But being on SW Airlines, I was able to stream Fox Business. The talking heads there all seemed to agree on the following;
1. China is in big trouble. Leadership trying to control markets while burying all of their economic issues. Some thing China GDP growth below 2%.
2. Africa is in big trouble. Too many deals made with the Chinese. Commodity prices are way down. This is because of China economy in big trouble.
3. No overall economic issues in US. Markets are reacting to China and policy stances from FED and Obama. Best thing for FED and Obama to do for the market downturn is nothing. It'll work itself out pretty quickly. Obama just needs to get a clue that he and his policies of economic micromanagement don't work.
Quote from: LongBlade on August 24, 2015, 10:59:17 AM
Quote from: Labbug on August 24, 2015, 10:46:31 AM
Think of this as a buying opportunity.
Yeah. I'm not sure the declines are quite done, but I'm thinking soon will be an excellent time to pick up some value stocks.
If only I hadn't spent all of my money during the Steam Summer Sale. :(
It'd be interesting to see how many large sellers bought a few hours later lower. Call me a skeptic, but I think there was some manipulation going on too knowing that there would be a sell off. But the market has been going down now for several days back to last week.
Quote from: Bison on August 24, 2015, 11:23:05 AM
It'd be interesting to see how many large sellers bought a few hours later lower. Call me a skeptic, but I think there was some manipulation going on too knowing that there would be a sell off. But the market has been going down now for several days back to last week.
There is probably some manipulation. The major investment firms make money on changes of pennies. They have computer programs which make these trades essentially at the speed of light. When you hold hundreds of thousands of shares and make a couple of pennies on the transaction it all adds up. When it shifts big they can make a lot...and lose a lot. Remember that for every trade there is both a buyer and a seller.
STOCKS ON SALE!
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 24, 2015, 11:53:22 AM
STOCKS ON SALE!
Yeah, but I'm waiting for the after Christmas markdowns.
Modern stock markets are like a casino, the house wins over time. If you expect the big players to give you easy winnings you will soon find you have no shirt and no lunch.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on August 24, 2015, 12:38:07 PM
Modern stock markets are like a casino, the house wins over time. If you expect the big players to give you easy winnings you will soon find you have no shirt and no lunch.
Not really. Modern stock markets over time produce wealth.
Yes, there are random ups and downs, and sometimes big crashes and big rallies. But the overall trend for the past century is quite clear:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stock-trading-warrior.com%2Fimages%2FStock-Market-History-Graph-.gif&hash=67a2054019858a853d4a8c08b8108739594abd5f)
Now, I have criticisms of the market's current position and believe this "correction" (and it may be more) is a long time in coming and well deserved, but barring a zombie apocalypse the long term trend will produce wealth and increase it.
Wealth for whom? The small investor will get crumbs if they are lucky.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on August 24, 2015, 02:19:08 PM
Wealth for whom? The small investor will get crumbs if they are lucky.
Opportunity is equal to small and large alike. Certainly 10% appreciation is more on a million dollars than a hundred, but the percentage gain is identical.
Quote from: LongBlade on August 24, 2015, 02:26:18 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on August 24, 2015, 02:19:08 PM
Wealth for whom? The small investor will get crumbs if they are lucky.
Opportunity is equal to small and large alike. Certainly 10% appreciation is more on a million dollars than a hundred, but the percentage gain is identical.
No it isn't, it is well known that some big private fund companies or other high speed trading entities have the ability to make their trades before others, like pension funds, know what is going on. It is CCDA applied to money.
Shoddy Chinese-Made Stock Market Collapses (http://www.theonion.com/article/shoddy-chinese-made-stock-market-collapses-51163)
There's still plenty of opportunity to invest in stocks yourself (and make plenty of money) - or put you money in a fund that uses those advantages to make you money.
The small investor can make money in the stock market if you think long term. My wife and I started investing about 33 years ago, starting at zero investments, and are now worth (even with the market melt down) 1.6 million.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 24, 2015, 02:46:05 PM
Shoddy Chinese-Made Stock Market Collapses (http://www.theonion.com/article/shoddy-chinese-made-stock-market-collapses-51163)
Yup. IIRC I waived Star off of the Ali Baba IPO for precisely that reason. That was what? Six months or a year ago. It has been known as a paper tiger for years. The news a couple of weeks ago was that the central government was buying stocks in a vain hope of propping up the value of companies which otherwise would see their stock prices collapse. That's a fool's errand. Now, a couple of weeks down the line, poof.
Quote from: Labbug on August 24, 2015, 02:50:39 PM
The small investor can make money in the stock market if you think long term. My wife and I started investing about 33 years ago, starting at zero investments, and are now worth (even with the market melt down) 1.6 million.
Congrats. That's what I'm talking about.
^ That makes my 10k loss over the last week look pretty small potatoes.
^ that's why I don't do daily tracking it can be very discouraging.
I protected myself by not having any money.
Mirth, you are the lodestar for all Groginatti.
Quote from: mirth on August 24, 2015, 05:43:14 PM
I protected myself by not having any money.
I mostly like to pretend that I'll have a fully funded one month retirement in 30 years.
Quote from: mirth on August 24, 2015, 05:43:14 PM
I protected myself by not having any money.
I have a pension from my last job to worry about but that's about it. Hopefully, in 3 years I will be able to pull that pension money and put it in something beyond the reach of my former employer's ability to fuck up. I used my 401k from that place to buy my house and pay off some very high interest debts. The rest of my money is in my next paycheck.
I cashed in one retirement fund after my divorce. I guess I have another one now, but it's not worth worrying over anyway. How long would it take to get that 50 bucks back?
I have a pension with the state that has 16 years to go and a few 401Ks that have been gutted by 2008 and probably today. But all I have to do is not die and I should be ok when I retire.
We have very different retirement plans.
That's the market.
Recently my uncle changed my viewpoint on financial investments. One of my aunt's/uncles is a friend of an artist down in the Niagara region (Trisha Romance), and bought a bunch of her stuff over the last few decades and filled their houses with the stuff. I visited the artist's gallery this weekend in Niagara on the Lake and checked out some prices on some of the prints. I'm pretty sure my uncle made more on those paintings than he ever did in the stock market.
This stuff ain't new. Blindly tying up your retirement money in a mutual fund is like taking it to Vegas. And Biggs is right, the house always wins.
The markets don't go through trillions of dollars in losses over a couple days without someone wining.
Quote from: mirth on August 24, 2015, 11:25:19 PM
The markets don't go through trillions of dollars in losses over a couple days without someone wining.
I disagree.
There are certainly people who short sold, but if you understood derivatives you'd realize that they're a fool's errand.
The only way to win a down market is to get out before it goes down.
Timing a market correctly is a dangerous game, but one that can be navigated by someone who is willing to short sell the market high and get in too early when the market bottoms out. That's a tough deal to make and one that is fraught with danger.
There are other, more successful strategies for investing. But most important is to understand your willingness to undertake risk. If your tolerance for risk is zero then you need to stuff cash under your mattress. If you like a ton of risk then you'll take your bets to Vegas on how few seconds Star's erections last. Somewhere in between is a venture into the stock market. A reasonable strategy which understands risks and rewards will, of the the long run, serve the average investor just fine.
One can focus on dividends too. Pick those that pay a lot of divs and has good earnings potential even in worsening economies. The stock price will only matter of you want to cash out. But if your in for the long term, the dividends should be rewarding enough to make you ignore the price volatility.
Quote from: LongBlade on August 25, 2015, 12:05:58 AM
Quote from: mirth on August 24, 2015, 11:25:19 PM
The markets don't go through trillions of dollars in losses over a couple days without someone wining.
I disagree.
The winners are those who make commission on the purchase or sale of every stock. So long as the market goes up or down, they are happy.
Quote from: Centurion40 on August 25, 2015, 07:43:14 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on August 25, 2015, 12:05:58 AM
Quote from: mirth on August 24, 2015, 11:25:19 PM
The markets don't go through trillions of dollars in losses over a couple days without someone wining.
I disagree.
The winners are those who make commission on the purchase or sale of every stock. So long as the market goes up or down, they are happy.
I'll bet if you ask around your local brokerage firms you'll discover very few of those folks are happy right now.
I have a friend who trades commodities. He says that he doesn't care if the market goes up or down, so long as it moves. He hates it when there is little to no movement on any given day, because he makes no money.
The traders who are upset are those who have investments of their own, or who work for an investment house that took a shit-kicking.
But people who make commission on movement are wearing shit-eating grins and buying new cars.
Fair enough.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on August 24, 2015, 02:34:09 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on August 24, 2015, 02:26:18 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on August 24, 2015, 02:19:08 PM
Wealth for whom? The small investor will get crumbs if they are lucky.
Opportunity is equal to small and large alike. Certainly 10% appreciation is more on a million dollars than a hundred, but the percentage gain is identical.
No it isn't, it is well known that some big private fund companies or other high speed trading entities have the ability to make their trades before others, like pension funds, know what is going on. It is CCDA applied to money.
If you buy and hold for the long term with a diversified portfolio - you minimize trading costs and the day to day fluxuations are meaningless. The trades on a minute-to-minute basis are only relevant if you are trading daily.
Compared to even 10 years ago, you can buy mutual funds which are broadly diversified at a minimal cost. The market is more "fair" to a small investor in terms of transaction costs and holding costs than ever before.
I probably lost at least $150,000 in the downturn. But I have not looked and usually don't review my portfolio more than quarterly. My wife and I put back large amounts in retirement accounts when we started working 28 years ago. Over this long time period of saving and gaining the benefits from the investment have been huge. This does not count social security, real estate, or my actual work pension.
But you have to spend less than you make, invest what you save, be patient, and keep your costs low.
This guys seems happy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/while-many-panicked-japanese-day-trader-made-34-million
Too many bears. Time to go contrarian.
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xlp1/v/t1.0-9/11951182_10153483853730351_7375228390615730297_n.jpg?oh=bdc8f450f46380083f497db518c3e141&oe=568330BD&__gda__=1451374307_8fa75c7e2ae001e12f7b41f9731c29c7)
Damn 470 point drop today.
Now I'm starting to worry about the pension I have from my old employer. I've heard an unconfirmed rumor that new employees are no longer offered that same plan and have only 401Ks to opt into. It'll be three more years before I can pull my cash out and reinvest in some other vehicle. I know the pension's value will eventually climb again but I'm worried that the plan will get defunded at some point before then.
Staggerwing, companies have been dropping pension plans for awhile now. The company I work for no longer offers a pension plan to new employees.
Quote from: OJsDad on September 01, 2015, 08:16:27 PM
Staggerwing, companies have been dropping pension plans for awhile now. The company I work for no longer offers a pension plan to new employees.
Same here. Welcome to the future.
My dad is a retired United Air Lines pilot. A while back UAL basically walked away from it's pension obligations and a lot of folks got really and truly frakked.
Yea, 401Ks are no guarantee of having money when you retire, but neither are pensions. And at least you have a lot more say over your 401K. Just don't do like a lot of Eron employees did and put every penny into your own company stock.
Thank Christ I live in the socialist north where my pension and retirement plans are a bit more regulated. Sure, I'll never be a millionaire, but I'll never have to worry about being a pauper either. Then again, I could be deluding myself with that line of thinking, and I don't mean the millionaire part. :-\