http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/25/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN0TD0IR20151125
QuoteTurkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on Tuesday, saying the jet had violated its air space, in one of the most serious publicly acknowledged clashes between a NATO member country and Russia for half a century.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the plane had been attacked when it was 1 km (0.62 mile) inside Syria and warned of "serious consequences" for what he termed a stab in the back administered by "the accomplices of terrorists".
"We will never tolerate such crimes like the one committed today," Putin said, as Russian and Turkish shares fell on fears of an escalation between the former Cold War enemies.
In a letter to the U.N. Security Council, Turkey said it had shot down the jet while in Turkish air space. Along with a second plane, the aircraft had flown more than a mile into Turkey for 17 seconds, despite being warned 10 times in five minutes while approaching to change direction, the letter said.
"Nobody should doubt that we made our best efforts to avoid this latest incident. But everyone should respect the right of Turkey to defend its borders," Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech in Ankara.
In condemnation of Russian air strikes in Syria, during which Turkish air space has been violated several times in recent weeks, Erdogan said that only Turkey's "cool-headedness" had prevented worse incidents in the past.
The Russian image from their own press conference appears to put the plane in Turkey
(https://scontent-sjc2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/12249841_10102304258234957_2812082580258439359_n.jpg?oh=b749e481ab641c1bbd068327aa060e27&oe=56AEF5B0)
Of course, when you're using a Wal-Mart grade GPS at Mach 2, some errors in location might be expected
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/these-russian-attack-jets-use-walmart-grade-gps-systems-1703048443
NATO, of course, backs Turkey
http://news.yahoo.com/nato-says-backs-turkey-over-russian-plane-182829191--business.html
and didn't take long for the memes to start
(https://scontent-sjc2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/12311092_10153206064831304_7430607999382982466_n.jpg?oh=93a526926423cd853787346f1c64eb78&oe=56B2F30C)
another meme
(https://scontent-sjc2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/12294866_515430685293407_1058317765078916478_n.png?oh=3ffe5122e9107fe42757dcc78f8b7afd&oe=56FAB521)
Turkey's military is nothing to sneeze at. I doubt the Russians would be dumb enough to waste the best part of it's otherwise creaky military assets fighting a country that has a 300,000-strong army with 350 Lep2A4s, a sizable number of modernized M-60Ts and an air force equipped with several Hundred F-16's.
Quote from: Staggerwing on November 25, 2015, 07:11:58 AM
... with 350 Lep2A4s, a sizable number of modernized M-60Ts and an air force equipped with several Hundred F-16's.
but all those toys are opereted by well ...Turks ;)
Good advertisement for whoever made that door!
The second pilot of the Su-24 has apparently been rescued: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34917485 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34917485)
I know the Russian aren't our favorite people in the world right now, but I think they have very legitimate reasons to be pissed about all this, especially since their SAR Mi-17 was apparently downed by a (US-made) TOW missile. Radical Jihadists shooting down Russian aircraft with sophisticated US-supplied weapons sounds dishearteningly familiar :(.
About the only good I could possibly foresee coming out of this would be for the Russians to start dumping weapons and resources on the Kurds as a poke in the eye to Turkey.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on November 25, 2015, 09:05:41 AM
The second pilot of the Su-24 has apparently been rescued: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34917485 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34917485)
I know the Russian aren't our favorite people in the world right now, but I think they have very legitimate reasons to be pissed about all this, especially since their SAR Mi-17 was apparently downed by a (US-made) TOW missile. Radical Jihadists shooting down Russian aircraft with sophisticated US-supplied weapons sounds dishearteningly familiar :(.
About the only good I could possibly foresee coming out of this would be for the Russians to start dumping weapons and resources on the Kurds as a poke in the eye to Turkey.
I'm glad that the other pilot is safe.
This incident has uncovered an angle of this conflict about which I had been entirely ignorant; Syrian Turks being trained, supplied and entirely supported by Turkey. I believe that it was Syrian Turk combatants shooting at the parachuting Russians, shouting "Allahu akbar!"
Have to wonder if the downing of the SAR helo was more an issue of not knowing who they were or what they were doing. I wonder if a Turkish SAR helo would have come under fire.
In case anyone were counting...
QuoteBut the Turkish air force doesn't seem to be too careful about entering Greek airspace, according to numbers from the University of Thessaly. A tally shows the Turks committed a total of 2,244 violations in 2014, up from 636 in 2013.
source: http://dailycaller.com/2015/11/24/turkey-violated-greek-airspace-2244-times-last-year-fires-at-russia-for-doing-it-once/
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fg8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F07%2FGreekAirspace-011-714x472.png&hash=5adb35857e623a30df71b1a7c84f585bcf463195)
WTF is going on with the Turks?
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 10:04:28 AM
WTF is going on with the Turks?
Tension between Turkey and Greece has been simmering for more than half a century. See: partition of Cyprus.
Quote from: LongBlade on November 25, 2015, 10:06:22 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 10:04:28 AM
WTF is going on with the Turks?
Tension between Turkey and Greece has been simmering for more than half a century. See: partition of Cyprus.
Oh yeah, it goes back to the Ottomans; but why the recent, dramatic increase since 2014? Do the Turks sense weakness because of Greece's economic woes, or is something else going on?
Erdogan did assume office in 2014.
The crumbling of Turkey's secular government and its evolution into a theocracy.
Yeah, probably all of the above.
You just made a very stupid mistake. RIP Turgay.
Quote from: Gusington on November 25, 2015, 10:38:17 AM
The crumbling of Turkey's secular government and its evolution into a theocracy.
Yeah, maybe. Or perhaps Erdogan is catering to these guys:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalist_Movement_Party
who appear to hold the leash of these guys (or maybe it is the other way around):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_Wolves_(organization)
Quote
A staunchly Pan-Turkist organization, in the early 1990s the Grey Wolves extended their area of operation into the post-Soviet states with Turkic and Muslim populations. Up to thousands of its members fought in the Nagorno-Karabakh War on the Azerbaijani side, and the First and Second Chechen Wars on the Chechen side. After an unsuccessful attempt to seize power in Azerbaijan in 1995, they were banned in that country.[36] Kazakhstan in 2005 also banned the organization, classifying it as a terrorist organization.[37][38]
Under Devlet Bahçeli, who assumed the leadership of MHP and Grey Wolves after Türkeş's death in 1997, the organization has been reformed.[39] Despite this, its members have been involved in a number of violent attacks and incidents directed mostly against Kurds. The organization has also been active in the Turkish-controlled portion of Cyprus. It has affiliated branches in several Western European countries with significant Turkish populations, such as Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany. In Germany, they are the largest[40] far-right organization with at least 10,000[13] members and are monitored by the authorities as an extremist organization.[41]
I think the Greek economic/political crisis is playing a role, too. Greece may be too preoccupied to give an increase in perpetual incursions much thought.
Interesting. Although it is Wikipedia, Erdogan's AK Parti is described as "Neo-Ottomanist".
Quote
Neo-Ottomanism (Turkish: Yeni Osmanlıcılık) is a Turkish political ideology that, in its broadest sense, promotes greater political engagement of the modern Republic of Turkey within regions formerly under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, its predecessor state. More recently, it has also been associated with the promotion of reviving Ottoman culture and traditions within Turkey.
The word was coined by the Greeks after Turkey's invasion of Cyprus in 1974.[1]
In the 21st century, the term has come to signify a domestic trend in Turkish politics, where the revival of Ottoman traditions and culture has been accompanied by the rise of the ruling Justice and Development Party. The use of the ideology by Justice and Development Party has mainly supported a greater influence of Ottoman culture in domestic social policy which has caused issues with the secular and republican credentials of modern Turkey.[2][3] The AKP have used slogans such as Osmanlı torunu (descendant of the Ottomans) to refer to their supporters and also their former leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (who was elected President in 2014) during their election campaigns.[4] These domestic ideals have also seen a revival of neo-Ottomanism in the AKP's foreign policy. Besides acting as a clear distinction between them and ardent supporters of secularism, the social Ottomanism advocated by the AKP has served as a basis for their efforts to transform Turkey's existing parliamentary system into a presidential system, favouring a strong centralised leadership similar to the Ottoman era. Critics have thus accused Erdoğan of acting like an Ottoman sultan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-Ottomanism
If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him. But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 10:56:34 AM
If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him. But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.
I think it's not a good idea to let them rekindle the Ottoman empire.
Quote from: W8taminute on November 25, 2015, 12:06:37 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 10:56:34 AM
If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him. But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.
I think it's not a good idea to let them rekindle the Ottoman empire.
Why not??!! They could contain all of this Islamic war bullshit to themselves; like the bad/good ole days. We'd just need to find a way to protect Greece and Israel. The Saudis can fend for themselves.
It may be the least worst option, to have a Turkish led caliphate...let them try to clean this mess.
Quote from: Gusington on November 25, 2015, 12:53:01 PM
It may be the least worst option, to have a Turkish led caliphate...let them try to clean this mess.
Then the loonie Sunnis wouldn't be focussed on us, they'd be focused on Istanbul- or Tehran, the capital of Shiite Islam.
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 12:47:34 PM
Quote from: W8taminute on November 25, 2015, 12:06:37 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 10:56:34 AM
If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him. But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.
I think it's not a good idea to let them rekindle the Ottoman empire.
Why not??!! They could contain all of this Islamic war bullshit to themselves; like the bad/good ole days. We'd just need to find a way to protect Greece and Israel. The Saudis can fend for themselves.
I have no idea what the US/West's goal is these days, but several years back (ten?) I was reading articles about people speculating that Turkey could possibly have a sphere of influence across points east - most of which are places that don't like us and we'd rather not babysit.
I think (though my memory has faded) that Turkey's tilt toward more religion put the kabash on that plan.
However, I think the goal remains in Turkey's mind - they'd like to play a big role in shaping some of Central Asia. Being part of NATO, and were they more secular like they used to be, I suspect we'd probably be OK with that arrangement.
They could just be using the excuse that we'll take care of things for you as a guise to mask their true intentions. Don't forget the Ottomans were at the gates of Vienna when they were trying to convert the west to their religion.
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 10:56:34 AM
We'd just need to find a way to protect Greece and Israel. The Saudis can fend for themselves.
Im pretty sure Israel can take care of itself.
Galeotti is a top british expert on Russia.
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2015/11/25/russia-turkey-deconfliction-and-distrust/
While I have little trust of Turkey's path in recent years, and think there needs to be some serious re-thinking about their NATO inclusion if the trend continues, I also can't help but wonder if this was just the type of incident Putin had hoped for when he moved his air forces in on the Turkish doorstep.
Turkey has been worried about the Russkies for a very long time, of course. That's why they ended up wanting into NATO so long ago. I doubt their distrust has waned much since the fall of the USSR, and having Russian air forces now buzzing their borders on the opposite side, it's easy to see that they'd get real jumpy. I think most of us, here, could see this as a likelihood before it even happened and some probably even said so.
That's why it makes me think that such incident(s) would be even more obviously likely to the Putin regime, before they went in. Regular run-ins with NATO in the same close vicinity are inevitable and given enough time something is gonna get damaged or shot down.
I'm not much for conspiracy theories but I wouldn't put it past Putin to be pushing further run-ins with NATO in order to justify further nationalist support & fear-mongering about NATO threatening them, back in Russia for domestic consumption. That would provide further domestic support for his previously stated goal of re-establishing the Soviet sphere. He's definitely been stoking the old Soviet alliances around the globe, in recent years, culminating with this latest Syrian foray. Could be two birds with one stone.
This may well be a more cut & dried defense of their old allied regime, despite the obvious extra conflict it would cause. But my theory is something to consider. Putin seems to be on a Realpolitik course.
Splitting the NATO alliance has got to be at the very top of Putin's to-do list. Getting Turkey to engage without going through NATO channels is a good way to do that.
Quote from: Gusington on November 25, 2015, 11:02:14 PM
Splitting the NATO alliance has got to be at the very top of Putin's to-do list. Getting Turkey to engage without going through NATO channels is a good way to do that.
Yeah.
If Turkey were, say, Andorra, then booting them out of NATO would be a foregone conclusion.
Turkey is a member of Europe and NATO for one reason: Constantinople.
Well, that and what followed.
Were the passage out of the Black Sea not home to Turkey they'd likely have been left to languish in the mire of whatever-the-flavor-of-the-month-called-the-"mideast".
It's well past time to reclaim the Hagia Sofia for the West but that doesn't rank high on our agenda right now. So we'll tolerate their lack of sensibility of borders to the north and overreaction to their sensitivity to the south.
Just found this in the mailbox :
Raxco Software - 25% Off Everything - No Exclusions! Coupon: TURKEY - Shop Software:
25% off all software for your Windows PC and household PCs with coupon code: TURKEY
Took me a minute to realise it is Thanksgiving in the US and Raxco wasn't making a political statement ...
haha
Something similar must explain all the banner ads for Uggs that keep popping up during my web browsing.
Quote from: Staggerwing on November 26, 2015, 07:26:07 PM
Something similar must explain all the banner ads for Uggs that keep popping up during my web browsing.
Tooncespam
Quote from: W8taminute on November 25, 2015, 12:06:37 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 10:56:34 AM
If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him. But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.
I think it's not a good idea to let them rekindle the Ottoman empire.
I think it would lead to an ethnic cleansing of the Kurds. I imagine there would be something similar for any of the other peoples that the Ottomans would rather not be included in their country.
I appreciate the concerns, but don't share them. If the Turks were up for another round of genocide, then why wait? A large portion of eastern Turkey is already predominantly Kurdish (darkish blue area on the map), so what is keeping the Turks from wholesale murder now? The exact same things that will keep from genocide in the future.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/T%C3%BCrkiyeetnikharitas%C4%B1.JPG)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Turkey
The Ottoman Empire was not a cultural, ethnic or religious monolith. Ethnically there were Turks, Arabs, Jews, Kurds, Greeks, Persians, and various other sorts of Europeans; religiously there were Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims, Catholic Christians, Orthodox Christians, Coptic Christians, Jews, Druze, etc., etc. Yeah some groups were persecuted from time to time; the Armenians and Kurds are outstanding horrors. But between 1300 A.D. and the 1920s lots of ethnicities and religions have been persecuted throughout the entire world.
What I am ultimately saying is that I don't think that a 21st century Ottoman nation would inherently behave like the 19th century Ottoman nation, anymore than the 21st century British nation behaves like 19th century British nation.
Turkey has been targeting and killing Kurds for years.
Quote from: Bison on November 27, 2015, 12:20:52 PM
Turkey has been targeting and killing Kurds for years.
Centuries.
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 27, 2015, 12:22:58 PM
Quote from: Bison on November 27, 2015, 12:20:52 PM
Turkey has been targeting and killing Kurds for years.
Centuries.
I know, but I'm specifically referring to the modern Turkish state. It's a mess of ethnic tensions.
I guess that my ultimate point is that the whole region is FUBAR. 1000% FUBAR. There is no sanitary answer. Unresolved hatred goes back millennia. But what would be the best end-game for us (North America and Europe)? My current thinking is that disengagement from the Middle East and developing alternatives to oil could offer the best rewards with the least blow-back. A friendly totalitarian state, or at least a non-belligerent totalitarian state covering as much of the Middle East as possible could also offer a best case scenario for us. Will some religious or ethnic group over there get fucked over? Yes. But some group is going to get fucked over no matter what is done, or not done. It is simply the nature of that beast.
I still say "Arm the Kurds to the teeth." Set up a pipeline of weapons that can be shut off at once if they start misbehaving in any way close to what other players in the area are doing. I think they are looking to follow the Israeli model and that brings up another good point. Make it clear that we expect great things from them as a friend. Our friends can be their friends and we also have a friend with a Mediterranean view. I know The Kurds are no angels but they have been practically begging to be taken under our wing for nearly a quarter century.
This isn't mine. I stole it from someone who probably stole it from someone who borrowed it from someone else.
QuoteLt. General Tom McInerney is an expert on handling threats from fighter jets.
McInerney served as:
Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad) – the military agency responsible for protecting the United States and Canada from foreign jet attacks – for the Alaska region
Commander of the Alaskan Air Command
Commander of 11th Air Force in Alaska
Commander of the 3rd Tactical Fighter Wing, Clark Air Base, Philippines
Commander of the 313th Air Division, Kadena Air Base, Japan
Commander of 3rd Air Force, Royal Air Force Station Mildenhall, England
Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force
A command pilot with more than 4,100 flying hours, including 407 combat missions
In his role as Norad commander for Alaska, McInerney dealt with more Russian fighter jet incursions (which he calls "bear penetrations") than anyone else in the world.
So McInerney knows how to tell innocent from hostile incursions by foreign fighter jets, standard rules of engagement of foreign fighter jets, how to read radar tracks, and the other things he would need to know to form an informed opinion about the shootdown of a foreign jet.
Yesterday, McInerney told Fox News – much to the surprise of the reporter interviewing him – that assuming the Turkish version of the flight path of the Russian jet is accurate, Russia wasn't threatening Turkey, and that Turkey's shoot down of the Russian jet "had to be pre-planned", as the jet wasn't in Turkish air space long enough for anything other than a premeditated attack to have brought it down
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4630118119001/radar-track-shows-russia-jets-path-over-turkish-territory/?#sp=show-clips
Is there any possibility that the Turks thought up until the shoot down that they were confronting one of Assad's 20-odd Fencers? If not, and the Turks knew that they were dealing with a Russian AC then one has to wonder if there are wheels within wheels inside the Turkish Gov't. These 'wheels may be much less concerned about the loss of some Russian tourist money and much more interested in poking the Russians in the eye for getting a little too involved in what the 'Wheels' see as their rightful zone of influence.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on November 27, 2015, 09:41:08 PM
This isn't mine. I stole it from someone who probably stole it from someone who borrowed it from someone else.
QuoteLt. General Tom McInerney is an expert on handling threats from fighter jets.
McInerney served as:
Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad) – the military agency responsible for protecting the United States and Canada from foreign jet attacks – for the Alaska region
Commander of the Alaskan Air Command
Commander of 11th Air Force in Alaska
Commander of the 3rd Tactical Fighter Wing, Clark Air Base, Philippines
Commander of the 313th Air Division, Kadena Air Base, Japan
Commander of 3rd Air Force, Royal Air Force Station Mildenhall, England
Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force
A command pilot with more than 4,100 flying hours, including 407 combat missions
In his role as Norad commander for Alaska, McInerney dealt with more Russian fighter jet incursions (which he calls "bear penetrations") than anyone else in the world.
So McInerney knows how to tell innocent from hostile incursions by foreign fighter jets, standard rules of engagement of foreign fighter jets, how to read radar tracks, and the other things he would need to know to form an informed opinion about the shootdown of a foreign jet.
Yesterday, McInerney told Fox News – much to the surprise of the reporter interviewing him – that assuming the Turkish version of the flight path of the Russian jet is accurate, Russia wasn't threatening Turkey, and that Turkey's shoot down of the Russian jet "had to be pre-planned", as the jet wasn't in Turkish air space long enough for anything other than a premeditated attack to have brought it down
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4630118119001/radar-track-shows-russia-jets-path-over-turkish-territory/?#sp=show-clips
I'll buy that. The premeditation is from prior incursions.
Is a shoot down overkill? Probably. An escort out would have been better. Still, there is no excuse for Russia trying to play the heavy everywhere. Even when Putin went to Australia for G8 or whatever, he had his navy trying to intimidate. WTF? You can't play bully forever without the expectation somebody will break you nose.
Yeah I've read the pre-meditated confrontation in a few articles now. It makes some scary sense.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 27, 2015, 11:11:02 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on November 27, 2015, 09:41:08 PM
This isn't mine. I stole it from someone who probably stole it from someone who borrowed it from someone else.
QuoteLt. General Tom McInerney is an expert on handling threats from fighter jets.
McInerney served as:
Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad) – the military agency responsible for protecting the United States and Canada from foreign jet attacks – for the Alaska region
Commander of the Alaskan Air Command
Commander of 11th Air Force in Alaska
Commander of the 3rd Tactical Fighter Wing, Clark Air Base, Philippines
Commander of the 313th Air Division, Kadena Air Base, Japan
Commander of 3rd Air Force, Royal Air Force Station Mildenhall, England
Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force
A command pilot with more than 4,100 flying hours, including 407 combat missions
In his role as Norad commander for Alaska, McInerney dealt with more Russian fighter jet incursions (which he calls "bear penetrations") than anyone else in the world.
So McInerney knows how to tell innocent from hostile incursions by foreign fighter jets, standard rules of engagement of foreign fighter jets, how to read radar tracks, and the other things he would need to know to form an informed opinion about the shootdown of a foreign jet.
Yesterday, McInerney told Fox News – much to the surprise of the reporter interviewing him – that assuming the Turkish version of the flight path of the Russian jet is accurate, Russia wasn't threatening Turkey, and that Turkey's shoot down of the Russian jet "had to be pre-planned", as the jet wasn't in Turkish air space long enough for anything other than a premeditated attack to have brought it down
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4630118119001/radar-track-shows-russia-jets-path-over-turkish-territory/?#sp=show-clips
I'll buy that. The premeditation is from prior incursions.
Is a shoot down overkill? Probably. An escort out would have been better. Still, there is no excuse for Russia trying to play the heavy everywhere. Even when Putin went to Australia for G8 or whatever, he had his navy trying to intimidate. WTF? You can't play bully forever without the expectation somebody will break you nose.
Agreed.
It's obvious from the tracks that the Turks were waiting for the Russkies to trip the line once again. Not like it's the first time.
The Turks may well have overreacted but, from what I've read, the Russian a/c have been pushing their limits despite warnings. Takes two to air tango?
Newtonian physics of the shootdown.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/belgian-physicists-calculate-that-everyone-is-lying-about-the-downed-russian-jet
It's the law.
'Everyone is lying' is a pretty safe bet, all the time.
Quote from: besilarius on November 28, 2015, 08:56:28 AM
Newtonian physics of the shootdown.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/belgian-physicists-calculate-that-everyone-is-lying-about-the-downed-russian-jet
It's the law.
Sounds like bs. The first obvious mistake is saying the fall is only controlled by gravity. Uh, a jet has wings. Second is saying the "rocket" can only make a 90 degree turn if it is much heavier? :idiot2:
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 25, 2015, 06:18:01 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 25, 2015, 10:56:34 AM
We'd just need to find a way to protect Greece and Israel. The Saudis can fend for themselves.
Im pretty sure Israel can take care of itself.
It depends on how the odds start to stack up. Sisi's Egypt isn't going to cause Israel any trouble giving their own internal Islamist threats, which puts them de facto on Israel's side. Assad has his hands full with the amorphous FSA, and IS. Russia and Iran have their own agenda keeping IS in power and supporting their Shiite buddies in Iraq. The Kurds want their own state, and given that they're also one of the oldest communities living in the ME it isn't surprising, but they're fighting IS, and don't really have much of a bone to pick with Israel. Turkey is fighting the Kurds, and have been giving IS a wink until fairly recently. Erdogan is the joker in the pack as he tries to undermine secular Turkey into a sunni religious state, which may mean he becomes softer on IS. IS of course being Salafist in affiliation will hate Israel with a passion, and if it grows, and coalesces with whoever ends up ruling Syria, gets Turkish support, and taps into the Palestinian cause, then I think Israel has a much bigger treat facing it than it previously imagined. If IS turns its focus on Israel if Al Assad is neutralised, and the West continue to 'talk' about dealing with IS, but don't do more than airstrikes, then Israel has serious problem it will need to address for its own security.
Quote from: Staggerwing on November 27, 2015, 07:06:56 PM
I still say "Arm the Kurds to the teeth." Set up a pipeline of weapons that can be shut off at once if they start misbehaving in any way close to what other players in the area are doing. I think they are looking to follow the Israeli model and that brings up another good point. Make it clear that we expect great things from them as a friend. Our friends can be their friends and we also have a friend with a Mediterranean view. I know The Kurds are no angels but they have been practically begging to be taken under our wing for nearly a quarter century.
+1 O0
Quote from: Bison on November 28, 2015, 12:04:10 AM
Yeah I've read the pre-meditated confrontation in a few articles now. It makes some scary sense.
One of the reports I saw on TV indicated that there is an ethnic group bordering both sides of the border - Turkomans IIRC. Historically the Turks (and this is going to sound kinda familiar) have felt it was their duty to protect these people, regardless of whose side of the border they were on.
Obviously any Turkomans on the Syrian side are probably going to have loyalties pointing elsewhere than Assad. Thus the Russians were likely attacking the Turkomans, whom the Turks felt they needed to protect.
It would then be consistent that the Russians could have been on the Syrian side of the border, been warned to cease their attacks, and Turkey then felt justified in shooting down the Russian jet.
At least that's how I see it coming together.
Turkey was betting (correctly) that Russia wouldn't want a full-on war with NATO.
Quote from: LongBlade on November 28, 2015, 10:45:30 AM
Turkey was betting (correctly) that Russia wouldn't want a full-on war with NATO.
Maybe, but it is VERY dangerous to act in such a disproportional way given that Turkey wasn't actually attacked, and apparently the plane was only 17 seconds in Turkish airspace. The missile launch was made more than 17 seconds before impact, and the F16 scrambled way before. If the Russians chose to take the view that it was a deliberate act of aggression, then Turkey is taking a HUGE gamble in relying on NATO, which is after all a defensive treaty. It doesn't protect Turkey from its own aggressive actions.
This time around it looks like Turkey got away with it, but I suspect the Kurds will receive help from the Russians against Turkish air attacks against them, which opens a whole new can of worms. It would have been far better for Turkey to make a diplomatic protest at this infringement as a more proportional response rather than get trigger happy. It's not as though the Turks don't infringe other countries airspace... and they haven't been targeted...yet.
I had an interesting conversation with a friend who is an air traffic controller. She is of the view that the Russian jet was after an IS fuel convoy headed for Turkey, which is why the plane was really shot down. It also sits well with an article in the French media that Sauron recently sent me that suggests that some of President Erdogan's own friends and family are in cahoots with the IS over fuel sales, which would give ample reason for the Turks stopping a Russian jet from shooting up an IS fuel convoy - sod all to do with Turkish security and everything to do with bank balances... >:(
Turkish intelligence and Turkish generals internal fighting.
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkish-army-officials-face-terror-charges/483009
Could also be a bit of house-cleaning by Erdogan.
Quote from: LongBlade on November 28, 2015, 10:45:30 AM
Quote from: Bison on November 28, 2015, 12:04:10 AM
Yeah I've read the pre-meditated confrontation in a few articles now. It makes some scary sense.
One of the reports I saw on TV indicated that there is an ethnic group bordering both sides of the border - Turkomans IIRC. Historically the Turks (and this is going to sound kinda familiar) have felt it was their duty to protect these people, regardless of whose side of the border they were on.
Obviously any Turkomans on the Syrian side are probably going to have loyalties pointing elsewhere than Assad. Thus the Russians were likely attacking the Turkomans, whom the Turks felt they needed to protect.
It would then be consistent that the Russians could have been on the Syrian side of the border, been warned to cease their attacks, and Turkey then felt justified in shooting down the Russian jet.
At least that's how I see it coming together.
Turkey was betting (correctly) that Russia wouldn't want a full-on war with NATO.
The Turks/Ottomans have a long history bordering with the Soviet Union/Russian Empire, which would figure into their reaction.
The Neo-Ottoman bent of Erdogan's AKP party somewhat resembles neo-imperialist bent of Putin's United Russia party. Putin wants to protect Russians everywhere and Erdogan wants to protect Turks living everywhere. One bully would not hesitate giving another bully a bloody nose.
The collapse of Syria and Iraq hasn't seemed to phase the Turks. Perhaps that instability has worked in the Turks favour, and the thought that Turkey has been benefiting from ISIS oil sales makes sense. The oil is going somewhere nearby.
Quote from: besilarius on November 30, 2015, 07:50:25 AM
Turkish intelligence and Turkish generals internal fighting.
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkish-army-officials-face-terror-charges/483009
Not really new, of course, after Erdogan purged a bunch of generals for supposedly plotting a coup a few years ago. Of course, it was only the overtly secular generals that got purged, as the overtly devout Muslims all somehow survived the purge.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in Turkey:
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/southeast-turkey-clashes-kill-6-pkk-1-soldier-martyred/483500
Quote
Six PKK terrorists were killed and a Turkish solider was martyred in southeastern Turkey in separate incidents Monday, the Turkish military said.
Three PKK terrorists were killed and a Turkish soldier was martyred following an armed PKK terrorist attack in southeastern Mardin province in Derik district. According to the Turkish General Staff, the incident took place when gendarmerie's special forces were carrying out an operation against the terrorist PKK group in the area.
Since July, more than 180 members of the security forces have been martyred and over 1,700 PKK terrorists killed in operations across Turkey and northern Iraq, including airstrikes.
When did Turkey start throwing around the word 'martyr' like that? That alone is disturbing.
Quote from: Gusington on November 30, 2015, 11:46:20 AM
When did Turkey start throwing around the word 'martyr' like that? That alone is disturbing.
T'ain't though.
Can't help but wonder if Istanbul will get more batshit as the whole region gets more batshit.
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 30, 2015, 08:25:14 AM
Perhaps that instability has worked in the Turks favour, and the thought that Turkey has been benefiting from ISIS oil sales makes sense. The oil is going somewhere nearby.
According to Sauron and his sources in the French media, it is actually Erdogan's son who is the link on the oil deal with IS. Hardly surprising then that the Turkish airforce was mobilised to protect the family business interests.
I think Staggerwing's hope that Erdogan will clean up in Turkey is misplaced, especially if it is actually the case that his own family is trading with IS! :o
I'd really like to give Turkey the benefit of the doubt regarding IS, but I think we're now on notice to remain watchful.
Quote from: Boggit on November 30, 2015, 06:05:06 PM
I think Staggerwing's hope that Erdogan will clean up in Turkey is misplaced, especially if it is actually the case that his own family is trading with IS! :o
I wasn't under the assumption Erdogan was doing anything good, just the opposite- getting rid of military officers who weren't toeing his line.
BTW- Russia Today is jumping on the Shootdown/Oil smuggling bandwagon:
QuoteRussia has received additional intelligence confirming that oil from deposits controlled by Islamic State is moved through Turkey on an industrial scale, said Vladimir Putin. President Recep Erdogan said he will resign if this is confirmed.
https://www.rt.com/news/324045-putin-erdogan-su-downing/
Erdogan is not very different from Putin is the context of what they both mean to democracy and the rule of law in their countries. I'm not a fan at all, but they are in NATO. If Russkies wanted to avoid any problems they should have made extra effort to stay away from Turkish territory. Anyone who thinks there can be any common cause with Russia against ISIS is dreaming.
Quote from: Staggerwing on November 30, 2015, 07:28:23 PM
Quote from: Boggit on November 30, 2015, 06:05:06 PM
I think Staggerwing's hope that Erdogan will clean up in Turkey is misplaced, especially if it is actually the case that his own family is trading with IS! :o
I wasn't under the assumption Erdogan was doing anything good, just the opposite- getting rid of military officers who weren't toeing his line.
My mistake. I misinterpreted what you'd said. Sorry. :-X
Quote from: Staggerwing on November 30, 2015, 07:28:23 PM
BTW- Russia Today is jumping on the Shootdown/Oil smuggling bandwagon:
QuoteRussia has received additional intelligence confirming that oil from deposits controlled by Islamic State is moved through Turkey on an industrial scale, said Vladimir Putin. President Recep Erdogan said he will resign if this is confirmed.
https://www.rt.com/news/324045-putin-erdogan-su-downing/
"if it is confirmed"... well the French media think so, Putin, and even an Air Traffic Controller friend of mine who is usually pretty good for info like this. If they are right Erdogan will be having a chat with sonny boy to keep his head down. With statements like that, I'm beginning to suspect a whitewashing exercise is about to begin... we'll see.