GrogHeads Forum

IRL (In Real Life) => Current Events => Topic started by: airboy on January 08, 2016, 01:39:26 PM

Title: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: airboy on January 08, 2016, 01:39:26 PM
Oil prices have fallen substantially world-wide.  Part of the reason is armed conflict.

The first reason oil prices have fallen is new fracking technology in the USA.  The USA in 2015 was the worlds largest oil producer!

The second reason oil prices have fallen is Saudi/Iran/Russian warfare.  Iran and Russia generate most of their trade income through oil.  The Saudi's have increased production to help keep oil prices low, thus harming Iran and Russia.

In the Middle East, there is a proxy war going on in multiple countries (Yemen, Syria, Iran, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan) between groups backed by Iran, those backed by Russia, and those backed by the Saudis. 

The Saudi's have used oil production and resulting world oil prices as a weapon multiple times.  Against Israel and the West in the 1970s, against the USSR in the 1980s, and again in the 2010s. 

There was a very interesting article about this in the Wall St. Journal this week.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: OJsDad on January 08, 2016, 03:06:35 PM
The whole oil price thing is very interesting.  Saudi Arabia and Iran, along with others, get into a spat with each other this week over SA's executing a Shia cleric, the Norks detonate a nuke, and oil goes down. 

Given the true economic shape that China is in, Europes not so good economy and their allowing Islamic refugees into their countries and then allow them to dictate how Europeans are going to live, and the US's mediocre economy, I think the next few years are going to be very interesting for the world. 
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: GDS_Starfury on January 08, 2016, 03:37:50 PM
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: Staggerwing on January 08, 2016, 07:18:13 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 08, 2016, 03:37:50 PM


Wasn't that song on the Repo Man soundtrack?
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: jejo68 on January 09, 2016, 03:58:35 PM
yeah, britain could use the iron lady back as prime minister instead of the undeciding pussies we call politicians today.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: Sir Slash on January 09, 2016, 11:27:55 PM
HERE HERE!!!
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: Gusington on January 10, 2016, 06:03:04 PM
Since Saudi Arabia and Iran don't directly border each other, would the battlefield be...Iraq...if they entered direct confrontation? Or the Persian Gulf? Kuwait? All? Somewhere else?
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: Airborne Rifles on January 10, 2016, 06:20:42 PM
Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2016, 06:03:04 PM
Since Saudi Arabia and Iran don't directly border each other, would the battlefield be...Iraq...if they entered direct confrontation? Or the Persian Gulf? Kuwait? All? Somewhere else?

The Persian Gulf, especially the Straits of Hormuz.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: Gusington on January 10, 2016, 07:57:13 PM
I need to read up on Saudi Arabia's naval capability...if they have any.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: Staggerwing on January 10, 2016, 08:03:13 PM
Here ya go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Saudi_Navy


It's interesting that the Saudis first started building a navy to match Iran in 1972. At that time the Shah was still in power so the Saudi-Iranian enmity goes back a long ways.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: OJsDad on January 10, 2016, 09:02:42 PM
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on January 10, 2016, 06:20:42 PM
The Persian Gulf, especially the Straits of Hormuz.

27 years ago I was in the Navy escorting oil tankers through the Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz and today it's still a hot spot. 
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: Sir Slash on January 10, 2016, 10:57:31 PM
Yeah, I remember frequent clashes there between the Saudis and Iran after the revolution. The Iranians didn't have the air power to match the Saudis and so mostly just postured against them. But at least once the Saudis shot-down Iranian aircraft straying into their airspace or threatening to.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: airboy on January 11, 2016, 11:17:34 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 10, 2016, 06:03:04 PM
Since Saudi Arabia and Iran don't directly border each other, would the battlefield be...Iraq...if they entered direct confrontation? Or the Persian Gulf? Kuwait? All? Somewhere else?

They are fighting a proxy war in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Sudan at this time.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: OJsDad on January 11, 2016, 07:00:50 PM
Quote from: jejo68 on January 09, 2016, 03:58:35 PM
yeah, britain could use the iron lady back as prime minister instead of the undeciding pussies we call politicians today.

Except she would be jailed and then thrown out of the country for being a hater. 
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: Gusington on January 11, 2016, 07:11:17 PM
Yes of course Airboy. But I'm talking about a direct confrontation between their tradtional conventional militaries.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: LongBlade on February 02, 2016, 03:33:10 PM
It's working.

QuoteRussia is lining up seven major state companies, including Aeroflot, Alrosa, the diamond miner, and Rosneft, for potential privatisation as the Kremlin debates drastic options to replace dwindling oil revenues.

The decision to consider the first such comprehensive push in years comes as the latest slide in crude prices is expected to drive Russia into a second year of recession and has ripped a gaping hole in its budget.

Moscow has continuously sold small state company stakes over the years, but progress has slowed since Vladimir Putin's return to the presidency in 2012. Memories of the privatisation wave with which Russia's liberal economic policymakers tried to force a transition from the Soviet economy in the 1990s remain traumatic as it vastly enriched a small number of people, creating the country's oligarch class.

The heads of Alrosa, Rosneft and fellow oil company Bashneft, Russian Railways, state bank VTB, Aeroflot and Russia's largest shipbuilding company Sovcomflot were summoned on Monday to a meeting where Mr Putin discussed privatisation plans for this year with his economic team.

source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/34acde08-c905-11e5-be0b-b7ece4e953a0.html
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: OJsDad on February 02, 2016, 03:51:22 PM
They'll just nationalize them again when they think they can afford to. 
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: JasonPratt on February 03, 2016, 01:03:40 PM
A cousin of mine works for Boeing, and has been moved to statistical analyst for the marketing department of the division that sells planes and things to Russia. He couldn't talk about it much, but I was surprised Russia bought much of anything from Boeing at all.
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: GDS_Starfury on February 03, 2016, 05:40:37 PM
well they want to buy things that work.   :buck2:
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: OJsDad on February 03, 2016, 05:50:11 PM
Aeroflot flies 25 Boeing aircraft, as do a number of their subsidiaries. 
Title: Re: Gas Prices = Indirect Warfare
Post by: JasonPratt on February 05, 2016, 11:45:58 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 03, 2016, 05:40:37 PM
well they want to buy things that work.   :buck2:

Pretty much. And maybe reverse engineer it.

It isn't a huge market by any means -- that's China and Southeast Asia more generally.