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IRL (In Real Life) => Tech Talk => Topic started by: LongBlade on May 24, 2012, 09:28:31 AM

Title: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: LongBlade on May 24, 2012, 09:28:31 AM
This guy has articulated a lot of reservations I had about Facebook's IPO, and why I didn't try to jump in on it at the launch.

He makes some very astute points.

http://www.wordtracker.com/blog/why-facebook-wont-survive-the-decade?utm_source=Subscribers&utm_campaign=296da3fa0f-Newsletter_153&utm_medium=email
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 09:39:54 AM
I'm surprised that something else hasn't come along put Facebook in the back seat with Myspace.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: LongBlade on May 24, 2012, 09:43:52 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 09:39:54 AM
I'm surprised that something else hasn't come along put Facebook in the back seat with Myspace.

I use Facebook primarily for posting images that get fed to a Kodak digital picture viewer so my parents can keep up with the family.

I rarely use it for anything else.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Gusington on May 24, 2012, 10:00:14 AM
So should I not even bother putting up my own FB now?
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 10:01:27 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on May 24, 2012, 09:43:52 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 09:39:54 AM
I'm surprised that something else hasn't come along put Facebook in the back seat with Myspace.

I use Facebook primarily for posting images that get fed to a Kodak digital picture viewer so my parents can keep up with the family.

I rarely use it for anything else.

Windy's got me hooked on Avengers Alliance.  I also play FB poker from time to time.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: LongBlade on May 24, 2012, 10:14:45 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 24, 2012, 10:00:14 AM
So should I not even bother putting up my own FB now?

I don't know what to tell you. FB can eat enormous sums of your time if you let it. Everyone and their dog seems to have a page. How useful it is, however, is questionable. We could probably discuss the issue at length, but in short, if it doesn't eat up too much time, it won't hurt to have a FB page. I'm not sure if it will help, but there ya go.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Gusington on May 24, 2012, 10:31:31 AM
Perhaps in the time I would allocate to putting up a FB page I can single handedly create the FB-killer.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Martok on May 24, 2012, 06:43:31 PM
A couple days ago, I posted (I can't remember if it was here or somewhere else) that while I believe social media is here to stay, I do believe that currently it's way over-valued. 

Facebook probably isn't going to die off, but I do believe its final state -- whatever it is -- will be far diminished from what it is now. 

Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Staggerwing on May 24, 2012, 06:57:43 PM
CNN  Newsfeed says there are a number of folks suing FB and Zuckerberg in relation to the stock release, alleging that they conspired to 'hide' info relevant to the stock's worth.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: spelk on May 24, 2012, 06:59:56 PM
Quote from: Gusington on May 24, 2012, 10:00:14 AM
So should I not even bother putting up my own FB now?

I thought Google+ was where all the cool kids hang these days.. when I say "kids" I mean, old geeks. :)
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: spelk on May 24, 2012, 07:01:24 PM
Quote from: Martok on May 24, 2012, 06:43:31 PM
Facebook probably isn't going to die off, but I do believe its final state -- whatever it is -- will be far diminished from what it is now.

Like http://www.friendsreunited.com/ ?
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: spelk on May 24, 2012, 07:02:51 PM
My personal feelings on the matter is that FB is so badly put together. It's got pyramid sales at it's evil beating heart. I'd like to see it not so popular to be honest.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 08:29:01 PM
Quote from: Martok on May 24, 2012, 06:43:31 PM
A couple days ago, I posted (I can't remember if it was here or somewhere else) that while I believe social media is here to stay, I do believe that currently it's way over-valued. 

Facebook probably isn't going to die off, but I do believe its final state -- whatever it is -- will be far diminished from what it is now.

I think that it will end-up being something used in the manner fashioned by LB; families staying in touch.  Something new will inevitably sweep the next generation of teenagers away.  But the current generation of teenagers and 20-somethings are using it to stay in touch with friends and family.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 08:29:49 PM
Quote from: spelk on May 24, 2012, 07:01:24 PM
Quote from: Martok on May 24, 2012, 06:43:31 PM
Facebook probably isn't going to die off, but I do believe its final state -- whatever it is -- will be far diminished from what it is now.

Like http://www.friendsreunited.com/ ?

Huh.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: spelk on May 25, 2012, 01:46:12 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 08:29:49 PM
Quote from: spelk on May 24, 2012, 07:01:24 PM
Like http://www.friendsreunited.com/ ?

Huh.

It might have been only big in the UK, I guess. It was very popular here for a time, long before the advent of Facebook. It was the only way at one time to find friends from school, and they grew very big, and then flopped spectacularly - probably around the time of Facebook coming onto the scene. Anyway, they've been trying to stay in the zone for years now, and hardly anyone uses them anymore.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: bayonetbrant on May 25, 2012, 06:14:53 AM
2 key things for me that make FB useful (note- not indispensable)

1. Mobile integration - I can throw photos online from anywhere, usually within seconds of taking them.  I can get updates out on things like sports events (when the kid is playing in a soccer tournament, for example).  I will occasionally check in from places, but more often, it's about getting a photo out there while on-the-go.

2.  Ease of sharing things I like from elsewhere.  Someone has a funny photo?  Hit "share".  No hunting for image URLs and cutting & pasting and formatting HTML, trying to manage blog postings and getting people to read stuff.  Post a photo or a link and let FB handle the annoying under-the-hood stuff.

Yes, there's stupidity there. There's stupidity everywhere online.  But they've made much of the stupidity convenient to ignore while making some key useful features very, very easy to use.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Huw the Poo on May 25, 2012, 07:51:46 AM
I really don't like Facebook, but I'm more or less forced to use it because all my friends and family do.  I never install apps on it though.

Quote from: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 09:39:54 AM
I'm surprised that something else hasn't come along put Facebook in the back seat with Myspace.

There are alternatives.  I never know whether to recommend Diaspora (https://diasp.org/) to people or not.  On one hand, I like it a lot and it's all about privacy - the very antithesis of Facebook.  On the other hand, it's still in heavy development and can be kinda buggy.

Quote from: spelk on May 24, 2012, 06:59:56 PM
I thought Google+ was where all the cool kids hang these days.. when I say "kids" I mean, old geeks. :)

G+ is dying a swift death, apparently.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: LongBlade on May 25, 2012, 08:40:18 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on May 24, 2012, 06:57:43 PM
CNN  Newsfeed says there are a number of folks suing FB and Zuckerberg in relation to the stock release, alleging that they conspired to 'hide' info relevant to the stock's worth.

Yup, I've been following this.

The IPO launch was bungled by the NASDAQ. I don't really know all the details other than reports say that some orders weren't executed timely or at the correct price.

Compounding the issue is that the issuing bank allegedly tipped off some insiders that the $38 price wasn't worth $38, ergo there may have been some insider trading.

Add that to the article above and I'm feeling reasonably celebratory that I avoided it. Last I looked it was selling with a price to earnings ratio of something like 99:1. There are a few stocks which seem to support that kind of crazy level, but I avoid them.
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: undercovergeek on May 25, 2012, 02:17:32 PM
Quote from: spelk on May 25, 2012, 01:46:12 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 08:29:49 PM
Quote from: spelk on May 24, 2012, 07:01:24 PM
Like http://www.friendsreunited.com/ ?

Huh.

It might have been only big in the UK, I guess. It was very popular here for a time, long before the advent of Facebook. It was the only way at one time to find friends from school, and they grew very big, and then flopped spectacularly - probably around the time of Facebook coming onto the scene. Anyway, they've been trying to stay in the zone for years now, and hardly anyone uses them anymore.

i remember them - like you say they went massive, i believe ITV bought them, and threw a load of sponsorship at them - almost every advert break was sponsored by Friends Reunited - and then POP - they disappeared - made lots of ££ for the founder though
Title: Re: Facebook Won't Survive The Decade?
Post by: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 25, 2012, 05:12:19 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on May 25, 2012, 08:40:18 AM

Add that to the article above and I'm feeling reasonably celebratory that I avoided it. Last I looked it was selling with a price to earnings ratio of something like 99:1. There are a few stocks which seem to support that kind of crazy level, but I avoid them.


Its about separating suckas from their money at those valuations.