The Euro is doomed. Interest rates on Spanish and Italian bonds are hitting 7%. At that level, the expense to keep covering the existing debt becomes prohibitive.
The only thing that could save the Euro at this point is if Germany (Denmark and a couple of others) decides to spend all of its treasure bailing out the rest of Europe. Don't think that is going to happen.
You can only spend way more than your income if someone will loan you money. When you spend a lot more than you make, you are existing on the forebarance of your creditors. The public will to bail out lots of countries is not there.
The only thing I could see is if China decided to step in and buy huge amounts of Euro debt.
The US day of doom is also approaching. The Feds cannot continue to borrow $0.43 of every dollar spent. Eventually your creditors wise up.
Well the Greeks go to the polls vsoon, reports say its neck and neck between the lefist guys who wants to bail from the euro and ton con guys who wont. Either way lots more rioting to come me thinks. If the Greeks leave it could be the start of another round of big falls. As you say Spain Italy on the verge as well.
I agree with you, Airboy, the Euro is doomed. The question is only whether this coming Monday will be the bell tolling or if it will be pushed a little further into the future.
Personally, I think that Germany, France, and the Benelux countries should consider forming a 'Euro-Redoubt' that is firewalled (as best they can) from the rest of the Eurozone. Time to rethink the Open Border idea.
A few thoughts...
1. I like Foreign Affairs headline: "Greece Votes Itself in the Foot" (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137710/stathis-n-kalyvas/greece-votes-itself-in-the-foot) Didn't read the article, but the headline made me chuckle. Clever.
2. A long article from Reuters (http://news.yahoo.com/whatever-euros-fate-europes-reputation-savaged-081513432.html) that starts with the excerpt below. I'd be curious to hear (a) Europeans' perspectives on what's happening over there right now and how things are feeling on the ground, and (b) Airboy's thoughts on the article, as he's got a better understanding of the arcane aspects of this. Heck, it's all Greek to me ;)
QuoteWhether the euro lives or dies, the chaotic way Europe has tackled the crisis could undermine the region's geopolitical clout for years to come and leave it at a distinct disadvantage in a rapidly changing world.
With an apparently never-ending series of last-minute summits and telephone calls, Europe's leaders and finance ministers have held the bloc together in the face of growing strains between states, a rising political backlash and market alarm.
But with hindsight, outsiders say each measure proved too little, too late. US officials in particular complain European leaders have either failed to grasp the scale of the problem or proved unwilling to countenance the awkward political decisions necessary to fix it.
As a result, they say, what should have been one of the most stable parts of the world has now become one of the most unpredictable.
At one extreme, the euro area might be about to embark on a journey towards further fiscal and political union as an almost totally unitary "super state". At the other, it could unravel and collapse into an unstable mess of regional rivalry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTSWdHY9Ny4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTSWdHY9Ny4)
:P
I suspect if I were a european politician, I wouldn't give much truck to any U.S. officials complaining about others' inability to countenance the awkward political decisions to fix massive financial problems.
At a fairly basic level, it's our inclination to insist that others do what we say and not what we do that informs the sentiment behind David Letterman's running "this is why the rest of the world hates us" joke.
(jersey shore, charlie sheen, eurodisney, and hawaiian shirts on overstuffed american tourists don't help a lot either. Which is why I only wear my hawaiian shirts locally. And sometimes in Canada, because I like the idea that windigo might be horrified. ;))
Quote from: meadbelly on June 16, 2012, 04:05:20 PM
I suspect if I were a european politician, I wouldn't give much truck to any U.S. officials complaining about others' inability to countenance the awkward political decisions to fix massive financial problems.
No kidding.
Germany lead the Euro rescue team, but their ideas were not shared by some of the bigger other nations.
i guess this is a dilemma based in the whole european union thing: strong economical partnership vs. sovereignity.
a greek friend of mine hoped that europe would leave greece alone and let it crash completely as he thinks the system is unrepairable
fruckeld up.
Yes, the vote has the news all worked into a lather. It doesn't matter. The real debt problem is the same for each country whatever the politicians say, whatever the vote. It's all theatre. The best thing is probably to let the weak countries leave to inflate their own money supply. They will then be competitive again in their pesos. They can win business again. That refers to Italy and Spain too.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 17, 2012, 07:20:14 AM
Yes, the vote has the news all worked into a lather. It doesn't matter. The real debt problem is the same for each country whatever the politicians say, whatever the vote. It's all theatre. The best thing is probably to let the weak countries leave to inflate their own money supply. They will then be competitive again in their pesos. They can win business again. That refers to Italy and Spain too.
100% agree there , Iceland shows that
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304203604577396171007652042.html
"Iceland has a significant advantage over stressed euro-zone countries—a currency that could be devalued. That has turned its trade deficit into a surplus and smoothed its recovery."
A devalued drachma would likely make a heck of an exchange rate with the dollar. And the greek economy sure could use a massive boost in tourism.
I'd visit Greece at 20 cents on the dollar. 8) Twice even!
^^^ do you know how I know you'r gay?
Greece is one of those countries that you can look at and ask, " exactly what the fuck have you contributed in the last 2000 years?"
really.....
even France has given us wine, cheese and about 4 STD's in the same time frame.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 17, 2012, 11:40:07 PM
Greece is one of those countries that you can look at and ask, " exactly what the fuck have you contributed in the last 2000 years?"
really.....
even France has given us wine, cheese and about 4 STD's in the same time frame.
All you got were the 4 STDs.
what did you get?
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 18, 2012, 08:32:49 AM
what did you get?
Julia Childs' cookbook is in my Wishlist!
you're an excellent house wife!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi2.listal.com%2Fimage%2F1173950%2F936full-brigitte-bardot.jpg&hash=2358e6bc7e6829b3a7c793050a0a442b2cb98ea6)
that's what the french brought me, lot's of masturbation material
we all thought watches did that for ya.
I like Baklava! Although can we credit the Greeks for that, or is that really Turkish - via Greece?
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 18, 2012, 10:10:17 AM
you're an excellent house wife!
And apparently you have got a new job. Congratulations - I see you can afford an English tutor.
Some things from Greece.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgRvJMKMuD8&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgRvJMKMuD8&feature=related)
Gyros, souvlaki, and yogurt sauce are all awesome. And no not that kind of yogurt sauce. Greek women, while hairy, can also be sweet looking.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww2.macleans.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F06%2FMerkel-new-statesman.jpg&hash=349a0e7529246cb73683975c00a4bf5fe3898de7)
LOL
( http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2012/06/angela-merkels-mania-austerity-destroying-europe )
author a Mehdi Hasan ..that's all i need to know;-)
^I knew it!!! There has been some press in the US and UK that I've read on how Hollande (new French Prime Minister) is attempting to 'stand up' to the Merkelinator.
Merkel doing a good job :)
I simply refuse to pay with my tax euros for other (southern) nations expensive spending over the past years
...the French retire at 60, while i have to retire with 67 and have to pay for them, no way!
Greeks were(are) simply total ineffective collection the taxes of their (richer)citizens, get the f#*%in job done and the crisis would be allmost over.
the other nations still try to let ME pay just another 'WW II-bill'
i think donating German build subs worth Millions (to get armed with nukes, ...but we dont talk about that ;) ) to Israel is enuff responsibilty taken
On July 6, 2006, the Government of Germany decided to pay an advance to start the construction, about 170 million euros, planned for delivery in 2012.[20] The two submarines cost, overall, around 1.3 billion euro, of up to one-third was paid by Germany.[16] In 2010, both Israel and Germany denied having talks regarding the potential purchase of a sixth submarine.[21] Yet in 2011, Israel ordered a sixth Dolphin submarine, for which it was reported to pay the full cost of $1 billion.[22] However, in July 2011, during a meeting between German Defense Minister Thomas de Maizière and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense minister Ehud Barak, an agreement was reached to subsidize 135 million euros of the 500-700 million USD cost of the sixth submarin
^I really don't know what Europe will look like in 10 years.
Quote from: Gusington on June 22, 2012, 11:00:20 AM
^I really don't know what Europe will look like in 10 years.
^read that pamphlet of that Norwegian killer at trial at the moment and you get a glance ;)
i hope he's wrong
Maybe the same as it looked 40 years ago... with the exception of the old Warsaw Pact nations and Yugoslavia. Not a bad thing, IMHO.
Dare I ask for a summary of what the Norway killer put in his pamphlet? Let me guess...Western Europe will be overrun with Muslims and become part of a new caliphate...
Quote from: Gusington on June 22, 2012, 12:54:36 PM
Dare I ask for a summary of what the Norway killer put in his pamphlet? Let me guess...Western Europe will be overrun with Muslims and become part of a new caliphate...
With the socialist/labour parties holding the doors open into the country, and handing them money to stay and nest. Yes I believe that's the substance of it.
I feel a rendition of Rock the Casbah coming on.
You've got the right avatar for it!
It does rock, eh?