I'm just starting the thread to call for more clear information on this. I'm only seeing a big uptick on Youtube today, from sources I'm not sure I trust. :(
Note: the original thread title was "ordering a strike" not "preparing", but the buzz I've been seeing talked about preparing and seriously considering ordering a strike. Not having ordered a strike.
See downthread for mainstream articles that seem to be behind the concerns.
I'd have to say that's complete BS.
The thing is, the NORKs have a huge ace up their sleevesa in preventing either the US or SK's from attacking them. Seoul is within range of NORK artillery along the DMZ. Any kind of attack on the NORKs would bring an attack on Seoul.
Maybe, but all it takes is a few higher ups thinking, "nah, we can do this with minimal issues," and stuff might get serious.
But, I'm a "glass half empty," sort, so I hope I'm wrong.
I'm all over the news this morning, as usual, and I'm not seeing a thing to support this. Granted, YouTube is not one of my news sources but Batboy has issued a firm denial.
I found this http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/after-trumps-syrian-attack-china-suddenly-gets-very-concerned-about-north-koreas-nukes/ (http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/after-trumps-syrian-attack-china-suddenly-gets-very-concerned-about-north-koreas-nukes/) and while it's really not as sensationalist as your headline suggests, China may be growing concerned after Trump's action against Syria
Interesting
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/world/asia/trump-china-north-korea-xi-jinping.html
Wow:
"China, too, can no longer stand the continuous escalation of the North Korean nuclear issue at its doorstep," the editorial said. "Instead of accepting a situation that continues to worsen, putting an end to this is more in line with the wish of the Chinese public."
Also, that article referred to 'the Japanese Navy.'
Times they are a-changin'.
To be clear, the buzz was more along the lines of Trump preparing for a strike, not actually ordering one yet, but definitely considering it. I should edit the thread title accordingly.
Edit complete.
Quote from: mirth on April 12, 2017, 11:43:35 AM
Interesting
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/world/asia/trump-china-north-korea-xi-jinping.html
Nice find. I suspect three things are happening. (1) The Chinese may see N. Korea as being more trouble on the world stage than it is currently worth, (2) Trump may be the first President since Ronald Reagan who our adversaries view as a "wild card" militarily, and (3) China is going to want something substantial in return for it's cooperation, such as some give on the South China Sea perhaps. One thing is for certain: if China suddenly turns on the Norks, it's not because they suddenly realized what bad guys they are.
Is there any scenario where the Chinese would actually ally with the US against North Korea, or is the best the US can hope for, if it comes down to a strike, is for China to look the other way?
Doesn't sound like the Chinese military is in any mood to re-fight the original Korean War.
Quote from: Steelgrave on April 12, 2017, 12:00:09 PM
One thing is for certain: if China suddenly turns on the Norks, it's not because they suddenly realized what bad guys they are.
Truth. They'll be looking for some quid pro quo.
Quote from: Gusington on April 12, 2017, 12:00:45 PM
Is there any scenario where the Chinese would actually ally with the US against North Korea, or is the best the US can hope for, if it comes down to a strike, is for China to look the other way?
Doesn't sound like the Chinese military is in any mood to re-fight the original Korean War.
Personally, I think China cutting off trade with the Norks is the best we could hope for, but then again, that's not insubstantial since China is their largest/only benefactor.
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 12, 2017, 11:56:06 AM
To be clear, the buzz was more along the lines of Trump preparing for a strike, not actually ordering one yet, but definitely considering it. I should edit the thread title accordingly.
Edit complete.
Well, you did manage to get a good conversation going :coolsmiley:
Quote from: Steelgrave on April 12, 2017, 12:03:29 PM
Quote from: Gusington on April 12, 2017, 12:00:45 PM
Is there any scenario where the Chinese would actually ally with the US against North Korea, or is the best the US can hope for, if it comes down to a strike, is for China to look the other way?
Doesn't sound like the Chinese military is in any mood to re-fight the original Korean War.
Personally, I think China cutting off trade with the Norks is the best we could hope for, but then again, that's not insubstantial since China is their largest/only benefactor.
They mentioned restricting oil. That's pretty huge.
We should deploy Pratt to N. Korea to start a conversation with them!
Quote from: Steelgrave on April 12, 2017, 12:05:44 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 12, 2017, 11:56:06 AM
To be clear, the buzz was more along the lines of Trump preparing for a strike, not actually ordering one yet, but definitely considering it. I should edit the thread title accordingly.
Edit complete.
Well, you did manage to get a good conversation going :coolsmiley:
And it hasn't derailed yet. Impressive.
Quote from: Gusington on April 12, 2017, 12:06:33 PM
We should deploy Pratt to N. Korea to start a conversation with them!
We're sending Gus Team Seal
^The situation is not quite that perilous/desperate yet.
Pratt can't go. He has to finish his AAR against Barth in DC 1. We need that Fix more than the world needs peace. Sorry world.
Quote from: mirth on April 12, 2017, 12:06:58 PM
Quote from: Steelgrave on April 12, 2017, 12:05:44 PM
Well, you did manage to get a good conversation going :coolsmiley:
And it hasn't derailed yet. Impressive.
Oh, you've jinxed us now, brother!
Quote from: Steelgrave on April 12, 2017, 12:00:09 PM
Quote from: mirth on April 12, 2017, 11:43:35 AM
Interesting
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/world/asia/trump-china-north-korea-xi-jinping.html
Nice find. I suspect three things are happening. (1) The Chinese may see N. Korea as being more trouble on the world stage than it is currently worth, (2) Trump may be the first President since Ronald Reagan who our adversaries view as a "wild card" militarily, and (3) China is going to want something substantial in return for it's cooperation, such as some give on the South China Sea perhaps. One thing is for certain: if China suddenly turns on the Norks, it's not because they suddenly realized what bad guys they are.
Good points. I'll one more though Steelie.
Trump has been threating China's trade with the US since he got into the race for president. China cannot take the chance that they could lose their $300+B trade deficit if they don't help cleanup the mess in NK.
I think tonight when Fat Boy goes to sleep, everybody ought to slip-out the country without telling him. Let him make his own Bacon & Eggs in the morning for once. Or tell him if he doesn't straighten-up, Hillary will be his new ambassador from the U.S. to deal with. And then 10 years from now, every kid in N. Korea will look like Bill including his own. That would sure-as hell work for me-- in so many ways.
How's that for sabotaging the thread? I CAN do better.
another viewpoint
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/159495094661/the-north-korea-reframe
Evidently the Lingerie Category in Area 51 has become publicly visible this week, so perhaps the threat of thread derailments has lessened.
One of the buzz videos I saw this morning indicated the Chinese had told the Norks that if Kim tries to go north to take some nearby oil, once China cuts him off, it'll be the last mistake he and his country ever make. I'm not linking to it because I'm dubious about the sourcing, but it's certainly plausible as a pre-emptive threat: play nice or we stop your oil; try to take our oil after we cut you off, and you will learn the meaning of not playing nice. "It's time to grow up, boy," is definitely the message the Chinese are sending.
Trump has seen significant approval for his airstrike on Syria (including from the Democrats; heck Hillary called for the airstrike first a few days ago!), and may think rattling that saber as a threat to North Korea for diplomacy purposes will score him more points on his cratering approval ratings. He marketed himself as a guy who knows how to negotiate winning deals, foreign and domestic, and he has failed spectacularly on public attempts in his first hundred days. I don't have any problem believing that with the birthday celebration of NK's founder coming up along with a likely propaganda test, he intends to scotch that test with force when/if it's tried or else make the Norks back down behind their bluster: after all, they threatened to nuke the US a few days ago the moment the first bullet flew in World War 3, which was their way of looking like a political player on the world stage. A more sober political player would just say, "yeah, that's typical Norkiness," and let it slide. Trump may think he sees an opportunity to teach the Norks not to aggro Godzilla and so counter-bluff down their rhetoric with a carrier group poised to laser-guide some munitions into his windows.
The problem comes if Kim really is as deluded as he seems to be, and decides the only way to get respect is to call the US' bluff. Then Trump either bites his own ego down, or he decaps North Korea on a CMANO first strike operation (expect to see that mission pack updated soon... ;) )
If he's seriously planning option two -- and he was talking with Xi in Florida when he greenlit the airfield strike, so Xi knows he can pull the trigger -- it would be to his advantage to let the Chinese know they have an opportunity to score some world political points by helping defuse the situation with a 'soft' technique. They wouldn't even need to ask for a quid pro: the political capital alone of being seen to defuse both Kim and Trump's dangerous pissing match would be reason enough to try. Everyone wins except North Korea: and if Trump decaps them, then China might work with the South to stabilize the region, being seen as cooperative saviors for the abused North people. The US sees an exit light at the end of the tunnel from the watch on the Parallel, and gets several kinds of credit; Trump can point to solving the Korean Problem on his sheet for his legacy.
This all presumes the North doesn't mobilize under one or more juntas to resist Chinese/South overthrow. Then it's just a morass that the Americans started and left others to clean up. Again. This time with unsecured nukes floating in the wind, who knows where.
Can you imagine the trillions of dollars that could potentially be made by reuniting Korea if events go the right way? I think Trump can imagine it. And maybe the Chinese now too.
Quote from: Gusington on April 12, 2017, 03:58:56 PM
Can you imagine the trillions of dollars that could potentially be made by reuniting Korea if events go the right way? I think Trump can imagine it. And maybe the Chinese now too.
Trump Plaza Pyongyang
Trump's Great Leader Buffet and Putt Putt
He would fit nicely in the Democratic People's Republic.
Trump's Tiny Hand BBQ Pit
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/9056/heres-americas-plan-for-nuking-its-enemies-including-north-korea
Quote from: mirth on April 12, 2017, 06:13:38 PM
He would fit nicely in the Democratic People's Republic.
Bill and Hillary would be natural replacements.
Quote from: OJsDad on April 12, 2017, 06:30:35 PM
Quote from: mirth on April 12, 2017, 06:13:38 PM
He would fit nicely in the Democratic People's Republic.
Bill and Hillary would be natural replacements.
They're still looking for a way to rule here.
What cracks me up about this is that Trump has a China expert working for him... as the ambassador to Russia. Huntsman speaks fluent Mandarin, was the ambassador to China, and knows full well the ins and outs of the situation there w/ the Norks. Why not call him in to advise on this?
http://www.vox.com/2017/4/12/15279654/trump-north-korea-xi-10-minutes
QuotePresident Donald Trump recounted an absolutely astounding detail about one of his conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping in comments published by the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday afternoon. Apparently, Trump came into his first meeting with the Chinese leader, in early April, convinced that China could simply eliminate the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear program. Xi then patiently explained Chinese-Korean history to Trump — who then promptly changed his mind.
"After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it's not so easy," the president told the Journal. "I felt pretty strongly that they had a tremendous power [over] North Korea. ... But it's not what you would think."
Quote from: mirth on April 12, 2017, 06:31:33 PM
Quote from: OJsDad on April 12, 2017, 06:30:35 PM
Quote from: mirth on April 12, 2017, 06:13:38 PM
He would fit nicely in the Democratic People's Republic.
Bill and Hillary would be natural replacements.
They're still looking for a way to rule here.
I take that back, Bill want's it as his own personal sex club.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on April 12, 2017, 06:31:57 PM
What cracks me up about this is that Trump has a China expert working for him... as the ambassador to Russia. Huntsman speaks fluent Mandarin, was the ambassador to China, and knows full well the ins and outs of the situation there w/ the Norks. Why not call him in to advise on this?
http://www.vox.com/2017/4/12/15279654/trump-north-korea-xi-10-minutes
QuotePresident Donald Trump recounted an absolutely astounding detail about one of his conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping in comments published by the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday afternoon. Apparently, Trump came into his first meeting with the Chinese leader, in early April, convinced that China could simply eliminate the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear program. Xi then patiently explained Chinese-Korean history to Trump — who then promptly changed his mind.
"After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it's not so easy," the president told the Journal. "I felt pretty strongly that they had a tremendous power [over] North Korea. ... But it's not what you would think."
Dude, for a guy who argues strenuously about what is and is not journalism....you quote a puff-piece from Vox? Seriously, there is so little meat on that article that I'm not sure what the point is, not to mention that Vox cherry-picked phrases from the WSJ. As for Huntsman, I seem to remember from somewhere in my mental warehouse (ok, more like a storage shed) there was some animosity between Huntsman and Trump. Don't remember my source (it wasn't Vox!) but something about Huntsman came up during the campaign and I recall there are negative feelings, maybe both ways.
Honestly, I'm surprised Brant reads Vox at all. Slant aside, it really is garbage. It's every bit as lousy as Breitbart.
that particular Vox article was pretty benign. And unlike Breitbart, they are occasionally interested in facts.
There's probably some leftover animosity from the campaign, but Trump did appoint Huntsman to be an ambassador...
Quote from: bayonetbrant on April 12, 2017, 07:32:28 PM
And unlike Breitbart, they are occasionally interested in facts.
Princess Bride clips win every argument.
Quote from: mirth on April 12, 2017, 07:44:59 PM
Princess Bride clips win every argument.
I know, right? It's the opposite of playing the Nazi card and losing instantly.
Trump gave an interview tot he wall street journal where he gave this quote
http://thehill.com/policy/international/328592-trump-on-north-korea-china-relations-i-realized-its-not-so-easy
QuoteTrump told the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday that he was previously convinced China had "tremendous power" over North Korea. But after meeting with Xi last week Trump said he "realized it's not so easy."
"After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it's not so easy," Trump said. "I felt pretty strongly that [China] had a tremendous power over North Korea. But it's not what you would think.
Unless he is pretending to be stupid in order to gain an advantage this smacks to me of someone who is woefully unprepared to deal with arguably the biggest threat to the US.
Con
Hey look! It's the same quote I used, but since Con is quoting WSJ, y'all are gonna buy it
Quote from: bayonetbrant on April 12, 2017, 09:28:19 PM
Hey look! It's the same quote I used, but since Con is quoting WSJ, y'all are gonna buy it
Well, he did use a credible source.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-test.html
Quote from: bayonetbrant on April 12, 2017, 09:28:19 PM
Hey look! It's the same quote I used, but since Con is quoting WSJ, y'all are gonna buy it
Quote from: Steelgrave on March 12, 2017, 08:04:43 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on March 12, 2017, 08:00:30 PM
^^^^^
And where did you learn about such transfers?
It wasn't Breitbart, Rush Limbaugh, or Drudge.
Seriously, weren't you alive back then? It was all over the news. And linking me in any way to those three sources is offensive. But just to refresh my memory, I went back and read stories from the NYT and CNN before posting.
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/10/29/china.summit/ (http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/10/29/china.summit/)
http://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/11/world/clinton-approves-technology-transfer-to-china.html (http://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/11/world/clinton-approves-technology-transfer-to-china.html)
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/15/inside-the-ring-2059116/ (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/15/inside-the-ring-2059116/)
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/05/22/china.money/ (http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/05/22/china.money/)
http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=452&tid=2 (http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=452&tid=2)
Sigh....consistency, Brant, consistency.
Quote from: Steelgrave on April 13, 2017, 06:57:49 AMSigh....consistency, Brant, consistency.
I'm totally consistent - a part of me dies inside every time one of y'all asks for more info about something that we already answered in a front page article... :-\
Does anyone know where I can find a review for OOB: Winter War?
Quote from: mirth on April 13, 2017, 07:07:21 AM
Does anyone know where I can find a review for OOB: Winter War?
Not that I'm aware of....let's ask Brant 8)
China is not accepting coal from China.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/12/trump-says-china-took-big-step-in-sending-coal-ships-back-to-north-korea.html
QuotePresident Trump said Wednesday that China took a "big step" in easing tensions between the two nations by turning away North Korean coal ships the day before and returning them to their home port of Nampo.
At a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday, Trump described his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping as one with "good chemistry" and praised China's apparent commitment to banning coal imports from North Korea.
"We have a very big problem in North Korea and as I said, I really think that China is going to try very hard, and has already started—a lot of the coal boats have already been turned back—you saw that yesterday and today—they've been turned back," Trump said.
"The vast amount of coal coming out of North Korea going to China, they've turned back the boats—that's a big step and there are many other steps I know about so we'll see what happens, it may be effective, it may not be effective—if it's not effective, we will be effective—I can promise you that."
Reuters first reported the North Korean ship movement Tuesday. According to Reuters, China banned all imports of North Korean coal on February 26—cutting off the country's most important export product—after repeated missile tests from the isolated nation that drew criticism from around the globe.
A senior defense official told Fox News on Wednesday that the Reuters report was "credible."
While the White House said it would not comment on the Reuters report, State Department spokesman Mark Toner told Fox News that all UN Member States are required to implement sanctions resolutions in good faith, and that the U.S. "expects them to do so."
"Full implementation of this resolution will demonstrate global consensus in imposing stronger sanctions on North Korea's sources of revenue for its UN-proscribed nuclear, ballistic missile, and proliferation programs," Toner said in an email to Fox News.
The report also suggested that China's ban of North Korean coal could be beneficial to the U.S. economy, if the U.S. makes up the difference and considers selling coal to China.
According to Reuters data, there was no U.S. coking coal exported to China between late 2014 and 2016, but shipments rose to over 400,000 tons by late February, amid Trump's repeated commitment to restoring the U.S. coal industry and rolling back Obama-era coal regulations.
Under the Obama administration, the coal mining industry lost approximately 36,400 jobs, and between 2009 and 2015, the number of coal mines in the U.S. declined by 554, leaving 853 mines in the U.S. by 2015, down from the 1,407 in 2009.
Last month, the president signed an executive order to "end the war on coal" and lift the ban on federal leasing for coal production, as well as the "job-killing restrictions" on the production of clean coal and other energy sources.
"We're going to have clean coal—really clean coal," Trump said at the signing of the Executive Order to Create Energy Independence."
Fox News' Lucas Tomlinson contributed to this report.
Brooke Singman is a Reporter for Fox News. Follow her on Twitter at @brookefoxnews.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/14/world/asia/north-korea-china-nuclear.html
China may be getting nervous about the tension but it is also a golden opportunity to try and present itself as the 'grownup' in this thing to other Asian nations. If China's status goes up while the US focuses so much on Norkland it's a Chinese win-win.
Quote from: Staggerwing on April 14, 2017, 12:33:56 PM
China may be getting nervous about the tension but it is also a golden opportunity for them to try to project itself as the 'grownup' in this thing to other Asian nations. If China's status goes up while the US focuses so much on Norkland it's a Chinese win-win.
That's what I was thinking too. They get to play mediator and look like the reasonable ones.
Quote from: mirth on April 14, 2017, 12:35:49 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on April 14, 2017, 12:33:56 PM
China may be getting nervous about the tension but it is also a golden opportunity for them to try to project itself as the 'grownup' in this thing to other Asian nations. If China's status goes up while the US focuses so much on Norkland it's a Chinese win-win.
That's what I was thinking too. They get to play mediator and look like the reasonable ones.
Well if they can pull it off all well and good. At the end of the day Kim Jong-Un has stated that he is developing nuclear ballistic missiles for the purpose of targeting the USA. How long do you wait until he is ready to launch?
Can someone explain the objection of S. Koreans to having the THAAD system deployed there.
Quote from: OJsDad on April 26, 2017, 01:37:25 PM
Can someone explain the objection of S. Koreans to having the THAAD system deployed there.
The S. Koreans have whackadoos who will protest anything, same as us?
I looked at a Reuters article about the protests but didn't glean any info on why South Koreans would protest the system. So if I had to guess, I'd say that they fear it will destabilize the situation and provoke the North to attack.
The idea is that North Korea's nukes act as a deterrent against the South and the U.S. right now. Once the THAAD is in place, it would degrade the North's nukes' deterrent effect. Therefore, the North should strike while it still can before the THAAD system is operational. The South, fearing this THAAD will provoke the North to do a preemptive attack, therefore protest its installation.
Just a guess.
It's also provocative to the ChiComms
Plus the NORKs have plenty of largescale conventional arty that can do a number on Seoul
Con
That's why there are cluster munitions. Those artillery batteries would have a very exciting, very brief existence.
Sure but THADD will do butkus to the first iron tide bearing down on Seoul. Its a zero sum equation since the arty attack signals war but the real threat are the nukes. I dont expect the NORKs to nuke Korea if Kim is going down paranoid and suicidal in his Fuhrer bunker I would expect him to fly the salvo at Japan and or US military assets fleet Okinawa bases etc)
Con
THAAD isn't there for the arty. And the Japanese have their own missile defenses.
I'm sceptical that the Norks could pull off complete surprise before unleashing a massive artillery barrage. And I suspect we and the South have detailed plans for neutralizing those guns.
Good article on Nork arty
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-annihilate-seoul-its-artillery-20345
Report referenced in the National Interest article above
http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/