As reported in various UK news outlets recently, UK Army looking at getting rid of tanks.
The article below mentions to replace them with new "sunrise capabilities" such as cyber and electronic warfare.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53909087
The Marine Corps already did this...always leading the way.
Proposed: Individual Armored Units - IAU - also known as Knights...perfect for the English!
The army that has no tanks will be unhappy if it runs into one that has them. Tactical handling is everything. A Pzkw-I would be terrifying even today if you were not ready for it and it had covering forces. Even those idiots in an armored pickup truck with a 50 cal in the rear are dangerous to folks who were ready for something else. Tanks are increasingly the toys of only the rich nations. The poorer ones may have to rely on infantry portable AT weapons and a large number of cheap, lightly armored vehicles with big guns....eggs with hammers.
Here I was thinking Limey tanks were about to be replaced with social workers. :DD
Well they could always take a cue from the 1930's Germans and use bicycles with cardboard silhouettes. :P
This is not the first time the end of the tank has been predicted. The high tank casualties from ATGMs in the 73 Yom Kippur War had many observers predicting the end of the tank.
But those arguments ignored the basic battlefield need. The tank is highly mobile firepower that is survivable. The tank also has enough firepower to kill other tanks. Until some other technology fills that niche, the tank will stay. So pretending that cyber and electronic warfare somehow are better investments than tanks is pretty silly; neither of those allow an army to take and hold ground.
Of course some say that armies don't need to take and hold ground anymore...and for low intensity conflicts, or counter-insurgency wars there is some sense in that. For example, the US taking and holding ground in Vietnam was often tragic and a waste of good men (Hamburger Hill was an infamous example).
However, the ability to control ground is still very important in many places even today. For example, if Taiwan, the Republic of China ever gets rid of its tanks...the PRC would probably invade the next day. My guess is that ROC keeps tanks for a long time yet.
As far as what replaces the tank? My guess would be that with advances in AI/ML and drone communications, the next big leap will be semi-autonomous drone tanks. Without the need for crew stations, the vehicles would be smaller, lighter, lower and possibly faster. They may also be cheaper.
BTW, Interesting article on the subject of ATGMs causing an armor crisis in the 70s and 80s (Armor Magazine from the 90s):
https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/docs/2sparks98.pdf (https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/docs/2sparks98.pdf)
Quote from: ArizonaTank on September 02, 2020, 10:38:43 PM
This is not the first time the end of the tank has been predicted. The high tank casualties from ATGMs in the 73 Yom Kippur War had many observers predicting the end of the tank.
But those arguments ignored the basic battlefield need. The tank is highly mobile firepower that is survivable. The tank also has enough firepower to kill other tanks. Until some other technology fills that niche, the tank will stay. So pretending that cyber and electronic warfare somehow are better investments than tanks is pretty silly; neither of those allow an army to take and hold ground.
Of course some say that armies don't need to take and hold ground anymore...and for low intensity conflicts, or counter-insurgency wars there is some sense in that. For example, the US taking and holding ground in Vietnam was often tragic and a waste of good men (Hamburger Hill was an infamous example).
However, the ability to control ground is still very important in many places even today. For example, if Taiwan, the Republic of China ever gets rid of its tanks...the PRC would probably invade the next day. My guess is that ROC keeps tanks for a long time yet.
As far as what replaces the tank? My guess would be that with advances in AI/ML and drone communications, the next big leap will be semi-autonomous drone tanks. Without the need for crew stations, the vehicles would be smaller, lighter, lower and possibly faster. They may also be cheaper.
BTW, Interesting article on the subject of ATGMs causing an armor crisis in the 70s and 80s (Armor Magazine from the 90s):
https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/docs/2sparks98.pdf (https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/docs/2sparks98.pdf)
Thanks for the detailed reply. Will read the link. Interesting that the same argument of getting rid of tanks existed from the 70's