Hi all , I thought you would be interested in this article in todays Guardian from Lt Col Daniel L Davis (ret)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/05/the-us-must-avoid-war-with-china-over-taiwan-at-all-costs (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/05/the-us-must-avoid-war-with-china-over-taiwan-at-all-costs)
In brief the author reckons that going to war with China over Taiwan will end with USA defeat with heavy losses and may even cause the nuclear war with all the consequences. The only valid alternative, according to article is economical sanctions and make a China an international pariah.
Personally I disagree , specially with second point. How can you make economical sanctions against China , if we all depend on Chinas trade (starting from electronics). It assumes a unity between USA and broadly speaking Western world, and I doubt that could be achieved (and what about Russia?). And considering nuclear threat, would not weakened China, after war with Taiwan, and becoming a "pariah" , be more willing/desperate to use its nuclear arsenal?
What you think?
We have to go to war over Taiwan. The entire world relies on their semiconductor microchip production. That cannot fall under Chinese control. It is a major strategic vulnerability.
^Agreed. I'm in the semiconductor business and feel the pain everyday of the shortages.
I don't know if we would go to war over Taiwan but we should. If we stood by and did nothing, Japan would be next on their list and the Japanese would have no choice but to go Nuclear to preserve their independence. That could lead to a truly catastrophic war that the West could not stay out of.
I think China has a lot more to lose by going to war with the US, than the US has to lose by going to war with China. The US currently owes China, what, the nominal amount of $1.1 Trillion dollars? if China goes to war with the US, the chances of them collecting will be substantially reduced.
^True and I agree but look at the flip side of the coin.
If I owed the bully on my playground milk money which I didn't have he would beat me to a pulp and take what ever he could from my pockets.
Quote from: W8taminute on October 05, 2021, 11:58:44 AM
^True and I agree but look at the flip side of the coin.
If I owed the bully on my playground milk money which I didn't have he would beat me to a pulp and take what ever he could from my pockets.
Global economics is much more complicated than playground hierarchies. If the US dollar crashes, the yuan will be right behind it.
I'm going to have to agree with the author on this one. In my opinion, we are poorly positioned to fight a conventional war with China over Taiwan, and I think the losses would be absolutely shocking. Consider the beating the UK took in the Falklands conflict, and that was with an arguably 3rd rate power. China has far more capable weapons, and the US doesn't have the capacity to lose dozens of ships and a couple of carriers. Also consider that after the inevitable attrition we would suffer in a war with China, would we still have the capacity to deter Russia?
^ None of that is to imply that we don't have a moral obligation (or financial re: semiconductors) to defend Taiwan. But realistically, I don't think it's feasible from a cost/benefit perspective.
Pretty unlikely that any war will happen. China is more likely to try and take Taiwan politically. First by showing military power, and then isolating the country via political manoeuvres, chiselling away until they get what they want. However, after Hong Kong no one is gonna trust anything China does.
first and foremosa we wouldnt be going to war with china alone. there would be some kind of ramp up to hostilities which would trigger all kinds of coming togethers on many levels. I cant think of a single country it the region thats happy with china at the moment. its also good to remember that we have no reason to invade china, we just have to not let them take territory from others and that simplifies a lot of things.
I read articles like the one posted all the time and I read a lot more that give a very different picture. at the end of the day I dont lose sleep over a conflict with china.
and Slash, Japan cant go nuclear, they can only reveal a secret giant robot force that no one knew about.
Japan, a country that constitutionally cant operate aircraft carries so they call them anti-submarine destroyers. :bd:
What do you think the Giant Robot Force runs on, Green Algae? It's got to be nukes. BFG Stands for, 'Big Fission Giant' after all. As I recall, Godzilla runs on nuclear as well. :hide: Japan's Constitution won't stand-up to a clear and present threat from China. If nuclear is the only way to preserve their independence, they'll jump on it in a hurry and they have the scientific ability to build it fast.
Japan must sell all it's possessions to raise the cash to buy Godzilla. Then it's game over. LOL
I read that the UK, Australia, and the US formed an alliance recently to protect the Pacific region. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/auukus-national-security-defence-submarines-nuclear_uk_614263b7e4b01f79194cb179
And forgot to tell our oldest ally in the world, France about it. #:-)
^Oh now you've done it...
So no one is going to react to Starfury's little joke?
Quote from: Ubercat on October 06, 2021, 12:15:48 PM
So no one is going to react to Starfury's little joke?
No. He is just Beijing for attention.
^Oh JH you just Shanghaied this conversation.
He cant stop taking about Wonton Destruction
Believe I'll just Peking Duck the whole subject.
As Picard says "Make it Tso"
:2funny:
:hide: That one's worthy of the Poo Poo Platter.
Are we Guoanbu(ck) to making puns? :D We'll that was rather forced, even for me.
Reading all of these tiresome puns have made me thirsty...................I am of to the Pub to Taiwan on.
Now, I need a drink too. #:-)
I thought the last 5-6 were pretty good. I must be losing my mind or getting old or both.
I hoped this will be mature conversation about true possibility of mankind bringing itself on the brink of mutual destruction. Sadly, I was wrong. My only hope is that yours president nuclear launching codes are stroganoff.
That could be considered a very goulash assessment of the situation. Not to make hash of this thread. ::)
^^No we all understand the implications of what could happen if war does break out between China and the US over Taiwan. No one wants to believe that something bad could happen but if it does happen I know the guys around here would be able to cope.
My personal belief is that there is going to be a war. The Chinese are very good at playing the long game and when they are finally ready after taking years of preparation on anything they work on they hit hard and very hard.
They do appear giants but I still think Peng's position is tenuous and they are only a heartbeat away from a free-for-all for power if he falls ill or dies. Who or what will be left after the smoke clears is impossible to say.
Making him all the more scarier. He knows he's got to perform and he has stated that the Taiwan problem will be resolved before he dies.
What does 'resolved' mean from the mainland Chinese perspective?
The article I read didn't elaborate but the mainland government views the island nation of Taiwan as a rogue state.
I would think that the question is would the rest of the Chinese leadership follow Peng over a cliff or might someone behind the scenes believe this would be too much, too fast? I sure wouldn't want to be his Food Taster. :hide: