Chinese J-16 Flanker fighter being dangerously aggressive toward an Australian P-8 in the South China Sea. The J-16 dumped decoys in front of the P-8, and some of the chaff was ingested and damaged the P-8's engines. This is much more aggressive than what has been happening before.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinese-fighter-s-decoy-dump-in-front-of-a-p-8-sets-dangerous-new-precedent/ar-AAY99ub?bk=1&ocid=msedgntp&cvid=006cbe54a6594ceaa8ed115cb374dab1 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinese-fighter-s-decoy-dump-in-front-of-a-p-8-sets-dangerous-new-precedent/ar-AAY99ub?bk=1&ocid=msedgntp&cvid=006cbe54a6594ceaa8ed115cb374dab1)
Does China have much of a history of sabre-rattling against Australia the way they regularly do with Taiwan and other neighbors? Haven't kept up in that regard
I saw that article. Scary stuff.
That's worse then what they did to Canadian pilots recently. What's interesting is this event took place on 2022-05-26 and this news is only being released now.
Edit: al they have only recently been sabre rattling against Australia. There was a big tizzy a few months ago when the Solomon Islands allowed China to setup bases there.
CNN reported this as a 'chaffing' hahaha
^Sometimes my bum bum gets chaffed.
:-[
Time to whip out the Gold Bond.
When your P-8 gets chaffed, it can be serious. It makes it hard for them to penetrate very deeply into unwanted airspace. And being Aussie makes it very painful down under. A warm bath would probably help.
...and nearby in the Gulf of Thailand: China secretly building naval facility in Cambodia (https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2022/jun/07/china-secretly-building-military-facility-in-cambodia-report-2462829.html)
^You ruined the 'secret'!!
:-[
Probably just a new Cruise Ship Terminal for the Chinese people to do a little gambling and sight-seeing after recovering from the Covid pandemic. Nothing to see here...move along, move along. ::)
I wonder how Vietnam is taking this activity by China in Cambodia? Cambodia has always been (in recent years) Vietnams punching bag for expansion.
By China building a base there stops Vietnam from getting too strong in the area.
^ Been there, saw that live, still have the Holiday Inn: Cambodia pin on my biker jacket, which I can't zip up anymore... :(
Lol....Jello Biafra is my Naval Action character. Most people have no idea who that is......California Uber Alles.
For the last week, China has held military drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan. This has put a soft blockade on the island since commercial transport generally avoids such areas; commercial flights and ships have apparently been constrained by the drills.
The drills had been scheduled to stop on Sunday.
Now, the drills have been extended. If China really wanted to put the screws to Taiwan and the US now, they could just continue this "stealth" blockade for an indefinite period of time. Anyway, not good.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-announces-fresh-military-drills-around-taiwan/ar-AA10pUPN?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5edcbf5ca53c4f868f8f75fc87ac41af (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-announces-fresh-military-drills-around-taiwan/ar-AA10pUPN?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5edcbf5ca53c4f868f8f75fc87ac41af)
Some "good" or at least "better" news. China seems to be trying to de-escalate tension a bit.
They are now saying that while Taiwan reunification is "inevitable" it can happen peacefully. Taiwan of course is having none of that.
Of course nothing says that the Chinese can't quickly change their minds again.
https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-canada-china-government-and-politics-f1b5f86cc8985c40e4c9c2f4f51cda05 (https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-canada-china-government-and-politics-f1b5f86cc8985c40e4c9c2f4f51cda05)
the chinese know that they'll have lots of free territory up north to take in about a years time.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 09:41:31 AM
the chinese know that they'll have lots of free territory up north to take in about a years time.
Been saying that since Ukraine started beating the shit out of Russia. China is claiming to stand with their socialist friends but they are using the as a barometer for a number of options.
World's response if they make a move on Taiwan
Potential socioeconomic impact of said invasion
If Russia performed poorly, can they realistically make a move north.
Russia has land and resources that China desperately needs. I also seriously doubt anyone would come to Russia's aid.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 09:41:31 AM
the chinese know that they'll have lots of free territory up north to take in about a years time.
I have always thought that if nukes were going to fly it'd be started between Russia/SU and China. Arrogance and xenophobia.
Quote from: jamus34 on September 22, 2022, 10:05:30 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 09:41:31 AM
the chinese know that they'll have lots of free territory up north to take in about a years time.
Been saying that since Ukraine started beating the shit out of Russia. China is claiming to stand with their socialist friends but they are using the as a barometer for a number of options.
World's response if they make a move on Taiwan
Potential socioeconomic impact of said invasion
If Russia performed poorly, can they realistically make a move north.
Russia has land and resources that China desperately needs. I also seriously doubt anyone would come to Russia's aid.
I don't think China has to move explicitly against Russia -- maybe just support Khazakstan or some other (former) Russian "allies" in the (more or less former)
Russian Federation. China can
move economically like some 19th century Imperialist (like Russia used to be) into Central Asia and is definitely already at work along those lines.
Taiwan is small potatoes compared to big chunks of Central Asia.
https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-china-cements-its-dominance-in-central-asia
china will 100% use its African strategy with break away russian territories.
In conflict between China and what is left of Russia, does North Korea just sit on its hands?
yes
And which way does Iran swing? Or do they just keep their heads down until it's over?
^Iran has a bit of a problem with open revolt right now.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 22, 2022, 10:58:10 AM
china will 100% use its African strategy with break away russian territories.
That strategy is very very effective for getting the foot in the door and short term, but China being China is quickly turning the nations against them. When I was down in South Africa, I heard stories from miners coming south to trade with us from bordering countries.
Their cheating ways are pissing everyone off. And it's turning governments against them. Big caveat is the nations that have given them land for agriculture have armed Chinese presence in them so the presence of this intimidationg factor may allow them to hold past a 10-20 year period.
Another problem is that some of the nations China was collecting land from (like the port controlling access to the Red Sea from Djibouti), have started to collapse (like Sri Lanka), leaving China holding the bag for irreplaceable defaults.
That most likely includes Russia, China's biggest nearby trading partner.
This is why China will be looking to focus on solving its own internal economic problems and nibbling off land in Asia for a while, rather than pressing on bullying Taiwan and playing tiger-games with the US and our allies (if they take the advice of a position paper presented to the Politburo last week).
The President of Brazil has tried to curtail their influence in his country. It remains to be seen how effective he will be.
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 23, 2022, 03:00:46 PM
The President of Brazil has tried to curtail their influence in his country. It remains to be seen how effective he will be.
They got cash so that is hard to counter.
Sure is. Somehow Chairman Xi and Brazilian conjures an ugly image in my mind. :hide:
An interesting analysis of economic brinksmanship the Biden administration just took against China: either play nice and get trade reinstated, or they'd better hope any war they kick off ends quickly...
At the moment, I'm leaning toward being in favor of this move.
China -- if you can't really stop the Phillippines bringing supplies to beached ships guarding the Spratleys, troll them with frickin' laser beams!
https://www.state.gov/u-s-support-for-the-philippines-in-the-south-china-sea-3/
Further information via the Epoch Times:
QuoteThe Armed Forces of the Philippines issued a terse response to the event.
"The deliberate blocking of the Philippine government ships to deliver food and supplies to our military personnel ... is a blatant disregard for, and a clear violation of, Philippine sovereign rights," a Coast Guard spokesperson said in an official statement.
In response to the "increasing frequency and intensity of actions" of China against the PCG, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. summoned Beijing's Ambassador Huang Xilian to discuss the incident on Feb. 14.
Marcos expressed "serious concern" over the laser event, according to spokeswoman Cheloy Velicaria-Garafil.
China's embassy in the Philippines said the officials talked about how to "properly manage maritime differences between China and the Philippines."
Before the Feb. 14 meeting between the Philippine head of state and Xilian, China's foreign ministry said that the actions of its coast guard were in accordance with the law. Beijing has neither specifically confirmed nor denied using lasers against the PCG vessel.
However, images captured during the event show a green and red light emanating from a Chinese ship with the number 5205 on its bow.
This isn't the first time in recent years China has reportedly used lasers against sovereign nations in the Indo-Pacific region. In February 2022, Australian officials reported an "act of intimidation" after a Chinese naval ship shot a laser beam at a military surveillance aircraft.
Red and green? They were probably just celebrating Christmas. :rolleyes:
The current Chinese game of bluff in the sea between its coast and Taiwan.
if they try they'll get only one shot at it and the global response will be way worse then whats happened with russia.
The Chi-Comms are betting on their, 'Useful Idiots' in Taiwan getting them their desires without war. If this strategy fails, then force becomes the alternate resort. They won't go that route if they think, or imagine, they can, 'reunify' on the cheap.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/xi-jinpings-worst-nightmare-a-potemkin-peoples-liberation-army/
^2027 eh? Good article...even a failed Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be worse for the rest of the world than the failed invasion of Ukraine. That makes total sense to me.
I also like how the author called the 2020s the 'decade of living dangerously.' Definitely feels like that, even sitting here in the US.
Meh, the world will play its geopolitical games.
I'm sure when you watched Napoleon march across Europe you said the same thing.
Yes, but it was in French.
French Canadian.
(Because "Wendigo".)
:Nerd:
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2023, 10:41:54 AMI'm sure when you watched Napoleon march across Europe you said the same thing.
Fortress North America Baby!
French Canadian confirmed.
Quote from: Windigo on May 05, 2023, 02:16:15 PMQuote from: Gusington on May 05, 2023, 10:41:54 AMI'm sure when you watched Napoleon march across Europe you said the same thing.
Fortress North America Baby!
Weren't the Redcoats burning Washington, D.C. to the ground around the same time that Napoleon was marching across Europe?
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on May 05, 2023, 03:06:53 PMQuote from: Windigo on May 05, 2023, 02:16:15 PMQuote from: Gusington on May 05, 2023, 10:41:54 AMI'm sure when you watched Napoleon march across Europe you said the same thing.
Fortress North America Baby!
Weren't the Redcoats burning Washington, D.C. to the ground around the same time that Napoleon was marching across Europe?
T'was a mere bush party that got out of hand.
^That's...what she said :Party:
If Dolly Madison had broken-out a keg or two of ale and a set of Cricket Sticks, the Brits would've never struck a match. :coolsmiley:
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 04, 2023, 10:14:54 AMhttps://warontherocks.com/2023/05/xi-jinpings-worst-nightmare-a-potemkin-peoples-liberation-army/
I know I gave a response to this, but I forgot to say what a well thought-out article this was. Lots of good material in here, and a clear indication that, if missiles ever start flying around Taiwan, it'll be a lose-lose for everybody involved.
Chinese leadership is so vested into their positions and lifestyle, they won't give that up for the sake of a minor territory.
What I've been calling the Silk Road project (which is also its informal name), formally known in English translation as the Belt and Road Initiative, has a bit of an update on its janky collapse.
whats the tldr of it?
the irony of asking you of all ppl.
Economic force
needs a path to follow west
owned by Chinese arms.
Make bad loans and then
take their land with ports and things
building out the path.
Bad loans eat up cash,
never coming back, but hey! --
now more Chinese land!
Land gets worthless fast,
if nations suck so bad they
cannot pay back loans.
Then the plan implodes!
Holy bleep we need Taiwan!
How to get that done?!?
****************
The TSDU (too short didn't understand) version:
China has been loan sharking nations with bad chances of paying off, in order to gain land with resource and/or logistic facilities (like ports or diamond mines) when the loans default. The goal was to create Chinese-owned logistic resource and transfer paths westward across Asia and Africa into Europe.
They've done so much of this, that the necessary loss in their working capital (ironically) has had a significant impact on their own stumbling economy contributing to a coming crash; while the facilities (with territory) they're getting in return are increasingly handicapped by the local surrounding governments crashing even harder. (To pull a random example, a port facility or diamond mine isn't much good if you can't get enough fresh water or electricity to it.) Sri Lanka's nearly total collapse is a particularly damaging example. The video is catching up on some details since the channel's prior report a few months ago.
The pressures and goals involved in the BRI have radically variable effects on China's intentions toward Taiwan: they need Taiwan in itself more than ever (and not only as an important staging area for their BNI plans, but that, too); but China is increasingly handicapped, partly thanks to the BNI plan's implosion, about being able to support a takeover of Taiwan (or even stage an attempt to begin with).
There has also been some strategic speculation (not in this video as I recall) that with China's economic implosion on the way, Xi may be gearing up to try to take Taiwan even though he knows he's 100% sure to fail spectacularly, so that he can blame China's coming economic collapse on Western military action, which would be preferable in several ways than the CCP having to acknowledge its own responsibility for the collapse. The CCP is well aware, from its ideology if nothing else, that the destruction of a society's stability leads to revolution which a nation will be unable to effectively resist; so being able to point to a definite external threat would at least shift the apparent blame to someone else and allow for a call to circle the wagons for defensive cultural solidarity.
Edited to add: the BNI plan has a lot of relation to the Ukraine war, too, since China wants an overland staging area to the Black Sea.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 08, 2023, 10:50:48 PMwhats the tldr of it?
the irony of asking you of all ppl.
:ROFL: :ROFL:
Jason, is that haiku composition above original, or did ChatGPT write it for you?
:police:
I don't even know
how to ChatGPT
as far as you know.
:evil:
I tried to chat with ChatGPT and it told me to go away and stop bothering it. But it keeps sending me pics of Retirement Homes. Seems kind of cheeky to me. :shocked:
At least it isn't going Fatal Attraction on you! -- there are reports of that actually happening. (By 'actually' I mean 'by text', though it may still count as psychological ops.)
seems pretty dickish
https://twitter.com/i/status/1663645716458217483
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 30, 2023, 03:48:39 PMseems pretty dickish
https://twitter.com/i/status/1663645716458217483
The PRC can also be jerks at sea
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65750908
The latest official Chinese map for 2023.
They are pretty much claiming the entire South China Sea down to Brunei, Sarawak and Vietnam (old news I know, but still shocking to see it on an official map).
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1696104724691570945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1696104724691570945%7Ctwgr%5E1cbfeef54dc4bf5ddc3f876685f4418fdf456326%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fputin-powerless-complain-about-china-claiming-russia-territory-1823513 (https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1696104724691570945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1696104724691570945%7Ctwgr%5E1cbfeef54dc4bf5ddc3f876685f4418fdf456326%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fputin-powerless-complain-about-china-claiming-russia-territory-1823513)
And, they plan to rename it, "Ping's Pond". Or, "The South China Sea--FOREVER".
Didn't that map also claim some Russian territory? Those two river islands?
Hopefully.
The strange tale of the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting hulk that is a China-Philippines flash point.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-the-rusting-wreck-of-a-second-world-war-ship-is-so-important-to-china/ar-AA1j3EUp?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=NMTS&cvid=ef70316d2d014b629a188e5748110f1e&ei=212 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-the-rusting-wreck-of-a-second-world-war-ship-is-so-important-to-china/ar-AA1j3EUp?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=NMTS&cvid=ef70316d2d014b629a188e5748110f1e&ei=212)
Nice Wall Street Journal explainer on how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might play out using a board based wargame.
The scary part (besides the fact that US forces are engaged), is that China decides to attack US bases in Japan.
Interesting stuff, makes me want to pull out my copy of GMT's "Next War: Taiwan."
it would be kind of funny to watch the combined US and Japanese navies wreck the PLAN. :pirate:
Quote from: ArizonaTank on March 12, 2024, 03:47:50 PMNice Wall Street Journal explainer on how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might play out using a board based wargame.
The scary part (besides the fact that US forces are engaged), is that China decides to attack US bases in Japan.
Interesting stuff, makes me want to pull out my copy of GMT's "Next War: Taiwan."
I'll be happy when they have the reprint of that available and I can get a copy.
I saw a clip months back where part of force 2030 rebuild has the marines launching land based tomahawks from atolls in the south China sea. Marines lose their tanks, but gain batteries of tomahawks. Seems like China's worse nightmare.
what I told you those Tomahawks use Marines as cluster munitions....
Return of the battleship?
coincidentally the New Jersey was just put into drydock for extensive maintenance. :pirate:
Just in time.
China has launched two days of military drills around Taiwan. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqvv29gpqn1o
QuoteThursday's drills for the first time simulated a full-scale attack, Taiwanese military experts said, rather than an economic blockade.
The exercises took place all around the main island, and for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin which lie close to the Chinese coast, according to maps released by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).
The drills also included a component to the east of Taiwan - the island's rugged east coast on the other side of a mountain range has long been its military redoubt.
Taiwan has built much of its hardened military infrastructure along this coast, including a large underground airbase inside a mountain near the city of Hualien. It is also close to Japan's southern islands, and a natural resupply route.
By sending naval and air patrols to the east of Taiwan, China aims to show Taipei that its east is now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/4ff6/live/72fa4340-18f6-11ef-80aa-699d54c46324.png.webp)
This is in response to Taiwan's newly inaugurated President Lai's speech. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-69036373
QuoteTaiwan's newly inaugurated president William Lai has called on China to stop threatening the island and accept the existence of its democracy.
He urged Beijing to replace confrontation with dialogue, shortly after being sworn in on Monday.
He also said Taiwan would never back down in the face of intimidation from China, which has long claimed the island as its own.
The BBC's live coverage of events seems to have vanished but it covered the facts that planning for this exercise would have taken months and that China could attack the Taiwanese islands close to mainland China. What China continues to do in the next few days and weeks will have to be watched.
Reuters is stating that China is making
mock attacks against Taiwan. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/with-mock-attacks-china-sends-honed-warning-to-taiwan-s-new-president/ar-BB1mUkPI
The Enforcer summarizes details from an hour ago:
China has only sent a few dozen aircraft, and no troop ships.
Bizarre incident with Philippine soldiers fighting hand-to-hand with Chinese coast guards. Apparently the Chinese are trying to disrupt Philippine operations in the area. Tensions are rising.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgee719kqpdo (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgee719kqpdo)
^I read that yesterday...the Chinese were armed with...swords?
:pirate: Arrrgggh.
China playing a dangerous game of bumper cars in the South China Sea...
On Monday, Philippine coast guard ships were damaged in collisions with Chinese coast guard vessels performing "aggressive" maneuvers in the South China Sea.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/collisions-tear-holes-in-u-s-ally-s-ships-as-tensions-flare-in-south-china-sea/ar-AA1p2Pl5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=757a1114fdf34cc099f5e64a34a593e5&ei=34 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/collisions-tear-holes-in-u-s-ally-s-ships-as-tensions-flare-in-south-china-sea/ar-AA1p2Pl5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=757a1114fdf34cc099f5e64a34a593e5&ei=34)
Time to bring back the BB's? :ThumbsUp:
Watch out for Chinese marines armed with swords.
Anyone know if american icebreakers are equipped to handle side impacts? We could 'loan' the Phillipines a few for supply runs. Chinese boats would be in for a surprise when then bow crumples on impact.
Quote from: Gusington on August 19, 2024, 11:30:08 AMWatch out for Chinese marines armed with swords.
Just send M1917 helmets:
At the 2:53 mark. https://youtu.be/jhpMXbTiNOI?t=173
Everything...EVERYTHING...that is old, is new again.
Except for me. :sad:
Hope springs eternal.
I remember Hope. She definitely had a set of 'Eternal Springs' on her. :Dreamer:
US sends China a defense pact warning over the collision incident.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-sends-defense-treaty-trigger-warning-to-china/ar-AA1p7Ryl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=be89aaf77719441f83bb3db6c23b912b&ei=3 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-sends-defense-treaty-trigger-warning-to-china/ar-AA1p7Ryl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=be89aaf77719441f83bb3db6c23b912b&ei=3)
So now China seems to be stepping on India's toes...
Really don't understand the timing of this. Maybe Xi is pandering to hard-liners in his military and government. The same guys who prove their manhood by buzzing US aircraft.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-s-troops-advance-dozens-of-miles-across-indian-border-report/ar-AA1qjwDD (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-s-troops-advance-dozens-of-miles-across-indian-border-report/ar-AA1qjwDD)
Interesting. If I had an army that big, I'd sure try to keep it busy somewhere, doing something besides looking hungrily...at me. :HideEyes:
We've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air. If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it.
Quote from: Skoop on September 10, 2024, 01:13:24 PMWe've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air. If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it.
And sometimes not so silently...;)
Quote from: Skoop on September 10, 2024, 01:13:24 PMWe've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air. If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it.
They should probably look at history and see that Japan woke that giant...that didn't go well for them.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on September 10, 2024, 02:57:50 PMQuote from: Skoop on September 10, 2024, 01:13:24 PMWe've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air. If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it.
They should probably look at history and see that Japan woke that giant...that didn't go well for them.
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but a US-China war would likely not be as easy as the war with Japan. In WWII, Japan and Germany combined had an economy of only $607 billon in 1990 USD. Japan's share of this was only $147 billion. The US had an economy worth $943 billion, or +6 times the size of Japan's. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334676/wwii-annual-war-gdp-largest-economies/ In contrast, by some estimates, the PRC's economy is slightly larger than the US. (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/the-world-s-top-economy-the-us-vs-china-in-five-charts/) In any case, the two economies are near peer in many measures. Even if you discount much of the information that is reported about the PRC's economy (IMHO, it is wise to be skeptical of many of the economic statistics coming out of China), the fact is that we are not 6 times their size.
More concerning is the fact that China has been laying the groundwork for a conflict for decades. In the event of a war, the US will be attacked in a myriad of ways. Not all of these will be kinetic, but they will all extract a toll. And it goes withoug saying that the American people are not nearly as unified as we were in the 1940's. This is not to say the PRC would win. They have some very significant challenges. But I'm not confident of a victory, much less the almost inevitable victory the US had over Japan in WWII.
Quote from: Tripoli on September 10, 2024, 03:33:46 PMQuote from: JudgeDredd on September 10, 2024, 02:57:50 PMQuote from: Skoop on September 10, 2024, 01:13:24 PMWe've been silently preparing for china, marines launching tomahawk batteries from atolls and navy hornets launching sm2 missile from the air. If china wants to awake our sleeping giant, bring it.
They should probably look at history and see that Japan woke that giant...that didn't go well for them.
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but a US-China war would likely not be as easy as the war with Japan. In WWII, Japan and Germany combined had an economy of only $607 billon in 1990 USD. Japan's share of this was only $147 billion. The US had an economy worth $943 billion, or +6 times the size of Japan's. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334676/wwii-annual-war-gdp-largest-economies/ In contrast, by some estimates, the PRC's economy is slightly larger than the US. (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/the-world-s-top-economy-the-us-vs-china-in-five-charts/) In any case, the two economies are near peer in many measures. Even if you discount much of the information that is reported about the PRC's economy (IMHO, it is wise to be skeptical of many of the economic statistics coming out of China), the fact is that we are not 6 times their size.
More concerning is the fact that China has been laying the groundwork for a conflict for decades. In the event of a war, the US will be attacked in a myriad of ways. Not all of these will be kinetic, but they will all extract a toll. And it goes withoug saying that the American people are not nearly as unified as we were in the 1940's. This is not to say the PRC would win. They have some very significant challenges. But I'm not confident of a victory, much less the almost inevitable victory the US had over Japan in WWII.
Macro wise since China is so dependent on inflow of raw materials a war will go badly for them in the long run
Micro wise most simulations of a war involving an invasion of Taiwan that have been modeled by RAND and other think tanks have China beating the US more time than not and massive infrastructure and military deaths on both sides
Typically we lose Guam and most of Japan airbases to a massive missile bombardment and likely to loose at least 1 carrier in order to completely defeat and sink the majority of the Chinese navy and air force.
50K US casualties in 1 week of fighting with more than 10K dead are the numbers I see.
That is why the winning strategy is to give Taiwan whatever they need to ensure the Chinese cannot succeed in an invasion. If the Chi Comms know they can't win, then they won't try and there'll be no need for all that loss of life. As long as Taiwan exists as a free nation able to defend herself, and the other nations around her stand with her in opposition to China's aggression, then they can never succeed in expanding militarily very far into the Pacific. The U.S. should be the glue that holds that alliance together.
Quote from: Sir Slash on September 10, 2024, 10:10:33 PMThat is why the winning strategy is to give Taiwan whatever they need to ensure the Chinese cannot succeed in an invasion....
You speak some truth sir.
In 1982 Argentina decided to invade The Falklands because, for almost a decade, Britain was sending out signals that it didn't really care for the islands...removing HMS Endurance from the region, scrapping her carrier Hermes and selling her carrier Invincible.
Lives were lost because of, at minimum, Britain showed indifference.
In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine because the RotW sat by whilst they invaded Crimea. The RotW showed indifference.
There's much more around these in terms of nuance for sure - but indifference will embolden your enemy and make any response late and tougher.
China throws its weight...
Does an exercise that tests blocking Taiwan...for a day.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-stages-blockade-of-taiwan/ar-AA1seexo?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=ef10043c5e2341b680f730e73df48670&ei=11 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-stages-blockade-of-taiwan/ar-AA1seexo?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=ef10043c5e2341b680f730e73df48670&ei=11)
They would make great targets for a Taiwanese version of the Ukrainian Drone Boats. Just saying. :rolleyes:
Oops...sorry wrong post
Nice Wall Street Journal explainer on US strategy to spread out bases, reviving old airfields like Tinian. This strategy to avoid concentrations where a single Chinese strike wipes out everything.
Tripoli's post got me thinking. I do agree that the parallels with Japan are a bit exaggerated, but they do make for interesting comparison. Especially if you consider a conflict that lasts longer than a week or two.
Parallel #1: Like World War II in the Pacific, any Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be capital-intensive (i.e., relying on ships and thus planes), where better technology typically yields better results. Advantage: US
Parallel #2: Proximity to air bases will be a major factor. It affects not only time-on-target but response time required to intercept incoming airborne attacks. China has numerous air bases relatively close to Taiwan that can be resupplied by land, whereas US bases are further away and the closest major air base (Okinawa) can only be resupplied by sea. Advantage: China
Non-parallel #1: The "sleeping giant" that Yamato fictionally labelled the US in Tora Tora Tora!! was in fact a sleeping giant, in terms of its manpower, its political will, and its manufacturing capabilities. It's hard to argue that the US is a sleeping giant in terms of manpower compared to China, and much of the US manufacturing might has moved to China in the last two decades. Advantage: China
Non-parallel #2: China relies heavily on naval imports for a lot of its industrial might, BUT China is not a resource-poor island nation like Japan was. It will retain access to Russian oil and a rich resource base in mainland Asia, but the US (like the Allies in WW 2) will likely be able to cut off sea access to resources from outside the region. Advantage: Draw
In summary, if it turns into an all-out shooting war and both sides have time to prepare, any Chinese invasion of Taiwan will be very costly (for both sides but especially for them), whether it's a victory or a defeat. As Sirslash alludes above, the biggest wild card in this deck might be the performance of the Taiwanese military.
Another possible parallel, China like Japan would find far more support from other Asian nations with a far less aggressive approach and attitude. A possible reunification with Taiwan might become a reality if the CCP wasn't so absolutely committed to outright conquest of the island and destruction of the regime there. Other nearby Asian nations might be open to alliance or cooperation with the CCP if they imagined they could retain their independence and local sovereignty. A more benign Greater Southeast Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere of today might become the dominant world power. Thank God they're so greedy!
Quote from: Sir Slash on November 01, 2024, 10:43:18 PMAnother possible parallel, China like Japan would find far more support from other Asian nations with a far less aggressive approach and attitude. A possible reunification with Taiwan might become a reality if the CCP wasn't so absolutely committed to outright conquest of the island and destruction of the regime there. Other nearby Asian nations might be open to alliance or cooperation with the CCP if they imagined they could retain their independence and local sovereignty. A more benign Greater Southeast Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere of today might become the dominant world power. Thank God they're so greedy!
Yeah. I'm not sure that "greedy" is quite the right word, but I don't know what the right word is. "Totalitarian"? "Monolithic"?
That's also why I think a Chinese blockade of Taiwan is MUCH more likely than an outright invasion. I'm not sure that the US is prepared to start shooting with China over Chinese interceptions of merchant ships in contested waters. Nor do I know that the Japanese would allow the use of US air bases in Japan if the US fired the first shots.
I wonder how long before the Japanese start discussing their own nuclear deterrent?
and Japan will get 1,200 AMRAAMs from the US.
Why would they possibly need so many? :Dreamer:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-approves-massive-foreign-military-sale-of-1-200-aim-120d-3-and-aim-120c-8-amraam-missiles-to-japan/ar-AA1wVHlE?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=ade149a531ab433789f87b1c43ea016b&ei=23 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-approves-massive-foreign-military-sale-of-1-200-aim-120d-3-and-aim-120c-8-amraam-missiles-to-japan/ar-AA1wVHlE?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=ade149a531ab433789f87b1c43ea016b&ei=23)
Quote from: ArizonaTank on January 03, 2025, 06:53:02 PMand Japan will get 1,200 AMRAAMs from the US.
Why would they possibly need so many? :Dreamer:
Only one reason I can think of....
(https://i.imgur.com/070jmx1.jpg)
^Excuse me, sir! I do not recall granting you a license to use my images and likeness.
:Loser:
China is building specialized barges that will give them the capability to establish temporary piers on beaches. These piers are like the Allied "Mulberry" piers at Normandy, or the US floating piers to Gaza last year. Historically, such piers have had mixed results due to being vulnerable to bad weather.
There appears to be no other reason for China to have this capability than to support an invasion of Taiwan.
China is not even trying to hide their intent.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-s-invasion-barges-are-a-sure-sign-that-war-is-coming/ar-BB1ro0qM?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=cce0b804171e44d3aa9e85c562779122&ei=39 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-s-invasion-barges-are-a-sure-sign-that-war-is-coming/ar-BB1ro0qM?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=cce0b804171e44d3aa9e85c562779122&ei=39)