Fox News is reporting tonight that Syrian rebels have captured Damascus and the dictator Bashar Assad has fled the country for parts unknown. :shocked: Thoughts? Short term, can only be like a dream come true for the long suffering Syrians. Long term, could be lots of trouble brewing all over the whole region in the days ahead. :fingerscrossed:
I recall reading the Syrian bases are key for the logisitics of sustaining Russian black ops in Africa.
Here's hoping that capability will soon be if not gone then greatly diminished.
Quote from: Sir Slash on December 08, 2024, 12:11:17 AMShort term, can only be like a dream come true for the long suffering Syrians.
Let us wait and see how the replacement does. I do not think we will suddenly see a new democracy emerge :
The most prominent and formidable one of those rebel groups is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), also known as the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. HTS was founded by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a military commander who gained experience as a young fighter for al Qaeda against the United States in Iraq during the US invasion before his capture and imprisonment in Iraq.
The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.
But its jihadist ideology appeared to be its driving force rather than revolutionary zeal. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/02/middleeast/rebel-groups-syria-explainer-intl/index.html
Look at very recent history for an idea of what is to come. What happened to Iraq after Saddam was deposed? What happened in Libya after Qaddafi was deposed? Peace, stability and democracy are not on the list of immediate possibilities.
Didn't Gen. Wesley Clark say they'd come up with a plan to topple 7 countries in 5 years right after 9/11? Iraq, Syria, Lebannon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran?
These colour revolutions and regime changes don't seem to achieve anything but mass death, destabilization, and waves of refugees.
Another good summary by Ward...
Good video.
Maybe the best thing (relatively) to happen, is Israel pushing ground forces into Syria to secure a buffer zone in the Golan Heights to keep Islamists from shelling populations in Israel again. The IAF has been systematically eliminating the prior Syrian military tech on the ground as well, so that they won't fall into the hands of various civil war factions. Including bio-chem facilities that Syria had been using against their own populations.
To be clear, I haven't heard that Israeli ground forces are in Damascus (although I noticed at least one clickbaity/scam titled video earlier this morning along that line). I kind of doubt that will happen, or not anytime soon. (Strictly speaking Damascus, like Tyre and Sidon, lies within the Biblical sphere of prophetic Israeli rule, which could have some bearing on future events, as it has had some bearing on past events, in various ways.)
Anyway. The other big winner so far in the Syrian civil war is undoubtedly Turkey, who will also benefit from taking over supply for problematic forces in Lebanon, thanks to Iran's logistics to the area being largely snapped. Unclear how their NATO status will affect their moves in the region yet. I know historically there are many groups who would rather see the whole area glassed than Turkish control re-established. But some key buffer zones between Turkey and Israel are becoming a lot more fluffy (so to speak). I would not in the least be surprised if an official war between Israel and Turkey kicks off in the next 5 to 10 years, though I'd like to be wrong about that.
More updates...Covers possible Russian evacuations and Israeli operations in the Golan Heights.
OK, you guys can quote me on this,,,,I predict interesting times in the Middle East!
solops
Graduate of the Curt Gowdy School of Commentary
Seriously, when have they not been interesting?
And Windy's still-living testimony about that carries special weight! :cheesy: :santa1:
They never mention David was an asshole with that sling. Little bastard would practice on my well buckets.
Interesting....
Quote from: solops on December 11, 2024, 02:24:07 PMI predict interesting times in the Middle East!
So many tinderboxes, all over the world. Several smoking ones, some of them having caught fire, too.
Full blaze in the works?
WSJ: Has World War III Already Begun? (https://www.wsj.com/world/has-world-war-iii-already-begun-16fb94c9?st=zTW2Jv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink)
QuoteThe West, Lavrov said, clings to America's decaying hegemony but is inexorably losing ground to the "free world"—his Orwellian term for the axis of autocracies led by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. "The fight of these two worlds, one phasing out and another emerging, is not going without clashes," he remarked at a conference in Qatar.
Though leaders in the West may scoff at Lavrov's attempt to downplay Moscow's geopolitical setback in Syria, they broadly agree with his view that the world is increasingly split into two rival camps. With Russia's war on Ukraine nearly three years old, the Middle East ablaze on multiple fronts and tensions building up in East Asia, conflicts once thought to be disconnected have merged into what could be the opening shots of a third world war.
..."At least not yet":
QuoteDespite this escalation, the major powers are not fighting one another directly—at least not yet. "It's not a world war by any stretch of imagination. It's still a proxy war," said Sen. James Risch, a Republican from Idaho, who is slated to become chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee next month.
Interesting times ahead it is.
QuoteThe fact that Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have different political systems and ideologies, and aren't joined by a formal alliance like NATO, had lulled Western governments into complacency, said Andrew Shearer, Australia's chief of national intelligence.
"We have collectively perhaps underestimated the magnitude of this emerging axis and the strategic impact it's having on us all," he warned in remarks at the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada last month. "We fell into the trap of looking at each component in isolation, and not seeing the linkages between them and the deep connectivity between one theater and another...We haven't adjusted our mindset and taken on board the scale of their strategic ambitions."
:huh:
Cold War II is much better than WW3.
I'm pretty sure this was done last week (because he advertises seeing the videos a week earlier by Patreon or website), but five hours ago Zeihan released a nicely colorful explanation about how many ways and how totally the Russians have been screwed by the fall of Assad.
Some interesting information in this update...
That guy's recent interview with one of the spec-ops defending the Euphrates against an Assad/Wagner incursion, was very good, too! (He plugs it briefly around 5:30.) Not where I can link to it at the moment.
Anyway, unsure if this counts as "the new Cold War" moreso than "the new Balkanization except on the other side of Turkey from the Balkans".