Let's keep it strictly to math and economic theory.
The U.S. is facing inflation - grocery prices are way up seems to be a theme. Our administration ran on a policy of bringing inflation down (can't remember, but probably on "day one").
This is a serious question - how does imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico benefit the U.S.? My understanding is that the tariffs are on the importer, not the exporter, which means the cost is borne by the importer in the U.S., who passes along that increase to the U.S. consumer.
I'm willing to believe this is a good idea if someone can explain it to me, because it seems counter-intuitive.
This really shouldn't be a thing here, but so long as everyone keeps it civil, I'm willing to role with it.
While I'm hardly an expert, there are three key reasons why the administration has imposed tariffs. First to influence or shape foreign policies and compel certain trading partners to take action to combat illegal immigration and the influx of drugs, including deadly fentanyl. Second, indirectly protect domestic industries by making foreign products less competitive and to counteract unfair trade practices, theft of IP and other trade imbalances. Third, as a source of revenue to drive down the federal deficit.
Yes, we can expect some prices to rise because some portion of the additional cost imposed by a tariff is typically passed on to consumers. Also, many companies rely on imported components and raw materials as inputs for their products, so tariffs on these inputs can raise production costs too, which may then be passed on to consumers.
I think the primary goal is to bring these trade partners to the table to negotiate better trade deals. It could work, but if it does not, and if the tariffs remain in place, in the long run it could certainly have negative impacts on the US economy overall.
Not sure if any of this answers your question or not.
The importer pays the tariff but that money goes to the US treasury.
In the best case for the US the importer doesn't raise the price for the consumer and the money from the tariff is used to lower the debt or is given back to the population.
But the importers profit will decline and after a while he will be forced to ask a higher price from the consumer, causing inflation.
In most cases the other country will also impose tariffs causing higher prices around major parts of the world (in this case China, Europe, Canada and Mexico).
This ends most of the time in a lose-lose situation.
You'll quickly see this reflected in stock market losses.
Well, the hope is that the government of the importing country will pay the tariffs, enriching the US. Canadians will not do this and we are retaliating with our own tariffs. Also, it is hoped that all manufacturing in the automotive, pharmaceutical industries, etc will come home to the states. In the meantime, expect to see the cost of cars jump by approximately $10000 as Ontario is a significant manufacturer of not only cars but parts and systems like engines go back and forth across the border as they are built.
The US won't be able to source Aluminum from outside of Canada for some time, lumber same. Steel won't be a problem. The Ontario premier will add a tariff to export of electricity and if the trade war continues into April, he will stop it completely. The $100 million (only Canadian) Starlink contract is cancelled, US alcohol has been pulled from sale in Ontario and people are choosing to buy Canadian goods throughout the country. It is very doubtful that the Alberta premier will stop the flow of crude from the oilsands, but she will feel pressure from the rest of the country. If Saskatchewan was to stop the flow of potash, the US will have very, very poor corn harvests and really only two options, but Canadians aren't that kind of a people.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2025, 05:11:55 PMI think the primary goal is to bring these trade partners to the table to negotiate better trade deals.
In 2020 the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaced Nafta.
This was a deal made by the Trump administration, so I find it difficult to believe better trade deals are the primary goal in those cases.
U.S. exports of services to USMCA were an estimated $109.0 billion in 2022, 23.6 percent ($21 billion) more than 2021, and 17 percent greater than 2012 levels. U.S. imports of services from USMCA were an estimated $83.0 billion in 2022, 27.0 percent ($17.6 billion) more than 2021, and 66 percent greater than 2012 levels. Leading services exports from the U.S. to USMCA were in the travel, professional and management services, and financial services sectors. The United States has a services trade surplus of an estimated $26.0 billion with USMCA in 2022, up 14.0 percent from 2021.https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 04, 2025, 05:29:21 PMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2025, 05:11:55 PMI think the primary goal is to bring these trade partners to the table to negotiate better trade deals.
In 2020 the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaced Nafta.
This was a deal made by the Trump administration, so I find it difficult to believe better trade deals are the primary goal in those cases.
U.S. exports of services to USMCA were an estimated $109.0 billion in 2022, 23.6 percent ($21 billion) more than 2021, and 17 percent greater than 2012 levels. U.S. imports of services from USMCA were an estimated $83.0 billion in 2022, 27.0 percent ($17.6 billion) more than 2021, and 66 percent greater than 2012 levels. Leading services exports from the U.S. to USMCA were in the travel, professional and management services, and financial services sectors. The United States has a services trade surplus of an estimated $26.0 billion with USMCA in 2022, up 14.0 percent from 2021.
https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement
In that regard, I was referring mostly to China.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2025, 05:29:58 PMIn that regard, I was referring mostly to China.
If I'm not mistaken China gets an increase of 10% while Mexico and Canada have 25% imposed.
Also numbers show that illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Canada is almost non-existent.
Nearly all of the 21,900 pounds that U.S. law enforcement seized in 2024 was at the southern border while only 43 pounds of fentanyl was seized at the Canadian border.
Quote from: Pete Dero on March 04, 2025, 05:38:46 PMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2025, 05:29:58 PMIn that regard, I was referring mostly to China.
If I'm not mistaken China gets an increase of 10% while Mexico and Canada have 25% imposed.
Also numbers show that illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Canada is almost non-existent.
Nearly all of the 21,900 pounds that U.S. law enforcement seized in 2024 was at the southern border while only 43 pounds of fentanyl was seized at the Canadian border.
I didn't say it was a sound policy, Pete. I'm only explaining the logic of how tariffs are typically used and what benefits they may have. There is no reason for an argument. I'm not interested.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2025, 05:39:56 PMThere is no reason for an argument. I'm not interested.
Sorry. I'm pretty on edge these days and I don't know why :wink:.
I can speak for the pharma part for China in that tariffs wont be beneficial for the following reasons
1. Pharma manufacturing takes about 18 months to go from brownfield to working cleanroom space
2. Additional re validation of any manufacturing and certification of equipment and drug templates takes about an additional 2 years
3. Pharma mfg single use assemblies raw materials come from China or Asia so the core mfg process will require larger purchases from these sources.
4 China is rapidly expanding its pharma mfg capabilities to take advantage of the cost pricing that will hit the US consumer - expect many workarounds (eg buying prescriptions in Canada/US etc).
There are many other nuances but in summary the tariffs on Pharma will only build China capabilities
Of course we can cut a year off this timeline if we dont certify or validate using todays regulations - however I wouldn't want to take those drugs- I've seen some real horror shows on bio contamination and reducing companies barriers to entry on this level will see many contaminated drug batches. - and its a real bitch to manufacture in a biological environment.
Con
And it's not like Canada didn't already have tariffs on American products. I do believe they had some hefty ones on American dairy products for starters.
I have to say, this actually helped a great deal.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2025, 05:11:55 PMWhile I'm hardly an expert, there are three key reasons why the administration has imposed tariffs. First to influence or shape foreign policies and compel certain trading partners to take action to combat illegal immigration and the influx of drugs, including deadly fentanyl. Second, indirectly protect domestic industries by making foreign products less competitive and to counteract unfair trade practices, theft of IP and other trade imbalances. Third, as a source of revenue to drive down the federal deficit.
JH, this is a very articulate explanation for why a country might impose tariffs on another country. I appreciate you taking the time to articulate them here for everybody's benefit. I'm not arguing with you about the effectiveness of the policies; just evaluating the first two as relates to different countries facing increasing American sanctions:
An evaluation of whether the recently announced tariffs might be effective seems to be outside the scope of this conversation. But you've done a good job of outlining the theory.
Good thread.
As you I am puzzled about what Canada did to us to need a coercion tool. Not something we can clear up here.
Quote from: FarAway Sooner on March 05, 2025, 11:58:44 PMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on March 04, 2025, 05:11:55 PMWhile I'm hardly an expert, there are three key reasons why the administration has imposed tariffs. First to influence or shape foreign policies and compel certain trading partners to take action to combat illegal immigration and the influx of drugs, including deadly fentanyl. Second, indirectly protect domestic industries by making foreign products less competitive and to counteract unfair trade practices, theft of IP and other trade imbalances. Third, as a source of revenue to drive down the federal deficit.
JH, this is a very articulate explanation for why a country might impose tariffs on another country. I appreciate you taking the time to articulate them here for everybody's benefit. I'm not arguing with you about the effectiveness of the policies; just evaluating the first two as relates to different countries facing increasing American sanctions:
An evaluation of whether the recently announced tariffs might be effective seems to be outside the scope of this conversation. But you've done a good job of outlining the theory.
Thanks. And again, I'm not taking the position that tariffs will ultimately be effective. There are a lot of variables at play. If I was forced to guess, I'd say in the end it will be a mixed bag. There will be benefits gained by some of the tariffs. However, some of the benefits may be countered by the consequences, of which there will most certainly be some. It's too early to tell where the chips will fall.
Mexico tarifs suspended for now. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y03qleevvo
In general: Tariffs are effective countermeasures when somebody is adopting anti-competitive practices against your nation's firms. They can also be useful if you are trying to protect national security interests (e.g., manufacturing medical masks), although there are often cheaper ways to do that.
Otherwise, tariffs generally end up favoring some domestic sectors over others at a cost to consumers/taxpayers. If you want the government putting its thumb on the free market scale to help some industries/firms, that's not a bad thing. If you don't want the government doing so, it's hard to view it as anything more than an evil that is occasionally necessary (see the first paragraph above).
In the cases of Mexico and Canada, both of whom already enjoyed Most Favored Nation Status and were charging us no tariffs, I'm left scratching my head. Hopefully it's just a bargaining tool, but I'm not sure what concessions we really need from the Canadians in particular.
Unless we've just had our fill of those maple syrup-guzzling, poutein-chomping hockey nuts? :Party:
^Canadians charge tariffs on US products. Lumber and dairy has been mentioned. It is somewhat difficult to find information though on the extent of the tariffs prior to 2025, as all anybody wants to talk about now are the retaliatory tariffs recently imposed in response to Trump.
I found this to be an informative article...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-global-tariffs-canada-1.7484790?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-global-tariffs-canada-1.7484790?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us)
Interesting article from Steven Jackson Games on the effect of recent tariffs on board gaming.
https://www.sjgames.com/ill/archive/2025-04-03
QuoteOn April 5th, a 54% tariff goes into effect on a wide range of goods imported from China. For those of us who create boardgames, this is not just a policy change. It's a seismic shift.
At Steve Jackson Games, we are actively assessing what this means for our products, our pricing, and our future plans. We do know that we can't absorb this kind of cost increase without raising prices. We've done our best over the past few years to shield players and retailers from the full brunt of rising freight costs and other increases, but this new tax changes the equation entirely.
Here are the numbers: A product we might have manufactured in China for $3.00 last year could now cost $4.62 before we even ship it across the ocean. Add freight, warehousing, fulfillment, and distribution margins, and that once-$25 game quickly becomes a $40 product. That's not a luxury upcharge; it's survival math.
Some people ask, "Why not manufacture in the U.S.?" I wish we could. But the infrastructure to support full-scale boardgame production – specialty dice making, die-cutting, custom plastic and wood components – doesn't meaningfully exist here yet. I've gotten quotes. I've talked to factories. Even when the willingness is there, the equipment, labor, and timelines simply aren't.
We aren't the only company facing this challenge. The entire board game industry is having very difficult conversations right now. For some, this might mean simplifying products or delaying launches. For others, it might mean walking away from titles that are no longer economically viable. And, for what I fear will be too many, it means closing down entirely.
Tariffs, when part of a long-term strategy to bolster domestic manufacturing, can be an effective tool. But that only works when there's a plan to build up the industries needed to take over production. There is no national plan in place to support manufacturing for the types of products we make. This isn't about steel and semiconductors. This is about paper goods, chipboard, wood tokens, plastic trays, and color-matched ink. These new tariffs are imposing huge costs without providing alternatives, and it's going to cost American consumers more at every level of the supply chain.
We want to be transparent with our community. This is real: Prices are going up. We're still determining how much and where.
If you're frustrated, you're not alone. We are too. And if you want to help, write to your elected officials. Ask them how these new policies help American creators and small businesses. Because right now, it feels like they don't.
We'll keep making games. But we'll be honest when the road gets harder, because we know you care about where your games come from – and about the people who make them.
-- Meredith Placko
^In the short term, board games are probably the least of our worries.
For instance, this is going to have a devastating impact on the price of many imported foreign models of AK-47 produced under license. Damn it!
:wwiiinf:
Wait until the average person finds out how all the medical devices and drug manufacturing equipment is made
Don't get sick for the next couple of years
Can someone who's smart with economics please explain how the recent stock market activity is (or eventually will be) a good thing for Americans? :shocked:
Quote from: al_infierno on April 05, 2025, 01:11:12 PMCan someone who's smart with economics please explain how the recent stock market activity is (or eventually will be) a good thing for Americans? :shocked:
The stock market will recover. The point of the tariffs is to return manufacturing infrastructure and jobs to the US. This will make the US stronger, more secure and self-sufficient in the long run. Sure, we might not be able to get cheap Chinese crap anymore, but you know, you have to prioritize.
Virtually every country, even our closest allies, have imposed tariffs on the US for decades. Now the US is imposing them in return. The policy isnt the problem. The way it's all being rolled out and poor messaging is.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2025, 01:20:25 PMQuote from: al_infierno on April 05, 2025, 01:11:12 PMCan someone who's smart with economics please explain how the recent stock market activity is (or eventually will be) a good thing for Americans? :shocked:
The stock market will recover. The point of the tariffs is to return manufacturing infrastructure and jobs to the US. This will make the US stronger, more secure and self-sufficient in the long run. Sure, we might not be able to get cheap Chinese crap anymore, but you know, you have to prioritize.
Virtually every country, even our closest allies, have imposed tariffs on the US for decades. Now the US is imposing them in return. The policy isnt the problem. The way it's all being rolled out and poor messaging is.
It was Reagan and Thatcher historically who embraced the open world market...that's one of the reasons why manufacturing left the US...and the UK.
The stock market eventually recovering doesn't help people pulling their pensions.
That fuckers wiped £16k off my pension
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 05, 2025, 01:48:20 PMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2025, 01:20:25 PMQuote from: al_infierno on April 05, 2025, 01:11:12 PMCan someone who's smart with economics please explain how the recent stock market activity is (or eventually will be) a good thing for Americans? :shocked:
The stock market will recover. The point of the tariffs is to return manufacturing infrastructure and jobs to the US. This will make the US stronger, more secure and self-sufficient in the long run. Sure, we might not be able to get cheap Chinese crap anymore, but you know, you have to prioritize.
Virtually every country, even our closest allies, have imposed tariffs on the US for decades. Now the US is imposing them in return. The policy isnt the problem. The way it's all being rolled out and poor messaging is.
It was Reagan and Thatcher historically who embraced the open world market...that's one of the reasons why manufacturing left the US...and the UK.
The stock market eventually recovering doesn't help people pulling their pensions.
That fuckers wiped £16k off my pension
Don't make it political JD. I'm not pointing the finger at who is responsible, but it did not start with Reagan and Tatcher. It started much earlier in the 1930s. Successive US administrations embraced the free market policy, including neocons. The point is that it had a devastating impact on US manufacturing and national security.
I'm sorry about your pension.
For the record, I'm in favour of bringing manufacturing back in house though...maybe tariffs is the only way to do it.
I can't help but think there's alot of people going to get rich from this fucking role coaster and it isn't ordinary people.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2025, 01:50:36 PMQuote from: JudgeDredd on April 05, 2025, 01:48:20 PMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2025, 01:20:25 PMQuote from: al_infierno on April 05, 2025, 01:11:12 PMCan someone who's smart with economics please explain how the recent stock market activity is (or eventually will be) a good thing for Americans? :shocked:
The stock market will recover. The point of the tariffs is to return manufacturing infrastructure and jobs to the US. This will make the US stronger, more secure and self-sufficient in the long run. Sure, we might not be able to get cheap Chinese crap anymore, but you know, you have to prioritize.
Virtually every country, even our closest allies, have imposed tariffs on the US for decades. Now the US is imposing them in return. The policy isnt the problem. The way it's all being rolled out and poor messaging is.
It was Reagan and Thatcher historically who embraced the open world market...that's one of the reasons why manufacturing left the US...and the UK.
The stock market eventually recovering doesn't help people pulling their pensions.
That fuckers wiped £16k off my pension
Don't make it political JD. I'm not pointing the finger at who is responsible, but it did not start with Reagan and Tatcher. It started much earlier in the 1930s. Successive US administrations embraced the free market policy, including neocons. The point is that it had a devastating impact on US manufacturing and national security.
I'm sorry about your pension.
Sorry.
My pension will recover...it's people who are due to cash it in now that'll suffer.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 05, 2025, 01:53:00 PMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2025, 01:50:36 PMQuote from: JudgeDredd on April 05, 2025, 01:48:20 PMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2025, 01:20:25 PMQuote from: al_infierno on April 05, 2025, 01:11:12 PMCan someone who's smart with economics please explain how the recent stock market activity is (or eventually will be) a good thing for Americans? :shocked:
The stock market will recover. The point of the tariffs is to return manufacturing infrastructure and jobs to the US. This will make the US stronger, more secure and self-sufficient in the long run. Sure, we might not be able to get cheap Chinese crap anymore, but you know, you have to prioritize.
Virtually every country, even our closest allies, have imposed tariffs on the US for decades. Now the US is imposing them in return. The policy isnt the problem. The way it's all being rolled out and poor messaging is.
It was Reagan and Thatcher historically who embraced the open world market...that's one of the reasons why manufacturing left the US...and the UK.
The stock market eventually recovering doesn't help people pulling their pensions.
That fuckers wiped £16k off my pension
Don't make it political JD. I'm not pointing the finger at who is responsible, but it did not start with Reagan and Tatcher. It started much earlier in the 1930s. Successive US administrations embraced the free market policy, including neocons. The point is that it had a devastating impact on US manufacturing and national security.
I'm sorry about your pension.
Sorry.
My pension will recover...it's people who are due to cash it in now that'll suffer.
Yes. Some people will suffer, but many people were suffering with the status quo too. If the policy works, it will make the country stronger. Of course, there is no guaranty, in which case maybe we will be all screwed.
The point is that the policy is sound, but you won't hear anybody in the mainstream media reporting that. It is all going to be doom and gloom.
A drunk driver loses control of his car, swerves into oncoming traffic, barely missing a school bus loaded with kids and a concrete truck, jumps the curb and launches into a house causing catastrophic damage.
Within minutes, 10 News Agencies descend upon the Home, interviewing the Home Owners, witnesses and passersby to flesh out the story. Astonishingly, the driver isn't arrested but is instead ushered away in a limousine. Neither the Press nor anyone looking on seems a bit concerned by this and seem almost oblivious.
The story goes worldwide, drawing spectators, photographers, street vendors from far away selling widgets, bobbles, mugs, t-shirts, coffee and donuts. The Mayor is interviewed and speaks glowingly about how his Administration has paved the way for business growth, and a plethora of inexpensive gifts and snacks made available due his shrewd handling of the situation.
Lost in the coverage are the homeowners whose lives have been turned upside down as the Mayor and his building department have denied them building permits to repair their home. The Insurance Company canceled the home policy and the Bank foreclosed on the home.
Unbelievable, right?
The Mayor loses his re-election bid to someone new to the Town who promised to help the displaced homeowners, fix the house, punish the drunk driver and kick the opportunistic street vendors off of the property.
The media goes wild! Who does this newcomer think he is? Driving the out-of-town street vendors off the property and denying locals of their cheap bobbles, widgets and mugs and some of the people agree.
He speeds through the permitting process allowing the Home Owners to hire a contractor and to rebuild their home. Some of the people are not happy, gathering to protest, vandalizing equipment, the home and threatening the new Mayor and the home owners.
.......By now you've figured out that this is an allegory and not an actual event.
So who is the Culprit? The do nothing opportunists who promised free trade would create new Service jobs, cheaper goods and a safer, human-rights observing, good neighbor China or the Outsider who swore to correct the destruction; kick the foreign opportunists and their investors to the curb and to make amends to our destroyed manufacturing base?
The 1994 "free trade" sham, touted by the DNC and opportunistic Republicans led by George HW Bush, either knowingly or ignorantly decimated the entire US manufacturing base by essentially encouraging American Companies to close plants here and open new ones in Mexico, Canada, China or to simply sub contract their product line to other foreign concerns.
As factories closed and companies moved offshore, the "free trade" America last opportunists promised Service jobs would fill the void.
As I said above, Trump's policy is sound; a Country that produces nothing is left indefensible and left vulnerable to the whims of foreigners even the enemy who can use pricing to coerce international policy.
The Market is not an indicator of anything more than the greed infused decisions of people reading the tea leaves. It has no moral compass, no national allegiance, no altruism, no conscience; just black and red.
The truth is, if Satan himself manifested in their midst in all of his mythical regalia; horns, cloven hooves, red skin and pitchfork, promising a huge return on an investment, The Market would act in an instant and the Media would congratulate their shrewd foresight.
If you want a read into the tumultuous next few days it is this; those who bet against the USA, investing in foreign concerns are reacting negatively to the audacity of Trump's insistence that America, American manufacturing, the American Worker and American Security should come first!
The Media is actually stumping against American Hegemony and telling half truths with zero historical context. Instead, they are telling people they will no longer be able to afford cheap Chinese Bobbles, Widgets, Mugs and possibly unsafe medications.
Yes, things will look dire for a bit and the media will make certain to remind you day after day.
This is very short list of tariffs placed on our exported goods BEFORE Trump's retaliatory, lower tariffs went into effect. If you will notice, the foreign Tariffs include Currency Manipulation and Quotas placed against our Exports, expressed as their de facto Tariff value. In most instances those manipulations and quotas can have a much more detrimental effect on us and are done in an attempt to mask those governments' attempts to excise taxable gains and to make our products less inviting to purchase.
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(https://scontent-lga3-3.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/488646448_9980295295314366_32657533560468187_n.webp?stp=dst-jpg_tt6&_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=jCL2Dsrklx8Q7kNvwHQJK7N&_nc_oc=Adn5a1dQFFqcYcwOiO2oIv_ErnbFJx3H_IVxBsKoB1XDyFtCe2y9-WH8TGBuNJPL1v_TIohsJ0zKz8YtG0kyQ4nv&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-3.xx&_nc_gid=5Pgm8G10cL_OoV0ckrqlfA&oh=00_AYH62R7LrDbusO8ZScglwhqUYJwf2vjX6UOxv2DiF9V0Jg&oe=67F74531)
(https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/488230992_9980295431981019_5774340830257121516_n.webp?stp=dst-jpg_tt6&_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=MSNfW1SSU70Q7kNvwHyBtPT&_nc_oc=AdkLHPQR4B4TlL3TsmC0xsrCy7VeJu6dmDfA2nnN_-NfpAQMk12PAxqqaaYvRKAxBznk3UMz3uToKDTN8eg_yVu3&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&_nc_gid=l43RQiLw0pfh63GdlVEGmw&oh=00_AYFdBqS9oOEkVkivc_Sxp3MdH4JHiMe-5ie5jsQ-DW0J-g&oe=67F73BD6)
(https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/488644258_9980295455314350_7984592760017193060_n.webp?stp=dst-jpg_tt6&_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=N74LjWrsQPAQ7kNvwG6T6Vg&_nc_oc=Adnp3GPA-LreWVQbZgX3QHquv7pLGW7XYDapf4iTbO-hls72roDLJx-OSsnB9dWlWjNQp6A-M2GHZo5w2XhThBJJ&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&_nc_gid=pv4PxmpL-qbo42B8_4VObw&oh=00_AYGBOQnmO5gbsEvIwBhEesIo1ILA7K6GdJ_hYZNVrNvNMQ&oe=67F75273)
My "people getting rich" comment wasn't based on the media...if that's what you're thinking.
I was just thinking it seems to me it would be known...by people who need to know...that implementing tariffs would affect the market negatively.
It also seems to me that these people who would know, would then know to sell their shares high, before the event, and then buy them back low.
It's those people in referring to.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 05, 2025, 02:16:24 PMMy "people getting rich" comment wasn't based on the media...if that's what you're thinking.
I was just thinking it seems to me it would be known...by people who need to know...that implementing tariffs would affect the market negatively.
It also seems to me that these people who would know, would then know to sell their shares high, before the event, and then buy them back low.
It's those people in referring to.
I think that is a very cynical way to look at it. The policy here is to make America strong and self-sufficient again. It isn't to make a handful of elite wealthy people wealthier, at least in my humble and perhaps naive opinion.
That is true...i am cynical. I think at 58 I have some reason to be. I'm not very trusting. That has to be earned :buck2: :RockOn:
Marco Rubio answers questions...
There's alot to unpack there...and alot of it doesn't belong in this thread.
I agree with the sentiment of bringing back manufacturing.
I would love to see the UK make stuff again. My heart sank a few years ago when the government in the UK was wanting to build a nuclear power station and they were tendering it out to China. I thought two main things on that...one...wtf? You want CHINA in charge of your domestic energy and two...why can't we just invest in our own infrastructure.
So I do agree with the sentiment...but the sceptic in me still thinks there's money being made by wealthy people here...and I'd love to believe the sentiment is the true reason for the tariffs...but I just can't.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 05, 2025, 02:02:29 PM(https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/488249255_9979167958760433_2484109998758676120_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_ohc=knXhCbLyjFUQ7kNvwHZe9no&_nc_oc=AdmehQV2vcCXln94IWmAFvPySd-aPQTMC8-7n1prb1M75IYqpOkxxuse7v2a4jrKjgWok-aJE2KiFDN74QtnPnlu&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&_nc_gid=dR7QnSFAqte7RNH-t1wQSg&oh=00_AYFLeYQDp4pEYdlNECoUL_804N5FR9tDhpwmEPMhybN0Iw&oe=67F73602)
The claim of a 39% tariff on U.S. exports sold to Europe appears to be based on a calculation involving trade deficits on Goods (and excluding Services) rather than actual tariff rates. The U.S. administration reportedly used a formula dividing the U.S. trade deficit on Goods with the EU by the value of U.S. imports of Goods from the EU, then rounded the result to 39%. Source (https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/explainer-where-did-donald-trump-get-his-tariff-calculations-from-and-are-they-accurate/ar-AA1Cd3TK)
EU-US Goods
and Services trade is balanced: the difference between EU exports to the US and US exports to the EU stood at €48 billion in 2023; the equivalent of just 3% of the total trade between the EU and the US. Source (https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en)
Trade wars are harmful to all parties involved. Here's hoping common sense prevails before a global recession if this becomes a tit-for-tat situation between all nations.
At least one economist, who I respect very much, believes the tariffs will be ruinous if they are anything but short-lived to achieve quick strategic goals.
But they can't be short lived. If his goal is genuinely to bring manufacturing back, then the tariffs have to remain in place until manufacturing comes back.
America is good at alot of shit...Great at some of it...but even America can't restart a manufacturing base that disappeared decades ago.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 06, 2025, 11:17:07 AMBut they can't be short lived. If his goal is genuinely to bring manufacturing back, then the tariffs have to remain in place until manufacturing comes back.
America is good at alot of shit...Great at some of it...but even America can't restart a manufacturing base that disappeared decades ago.
That is certainly true.
Trump has good instincts and he has been proven correct on more occasions than many would like to admit. I'm nervous about this one too, but we'll just have to wait and see how it turns out.
I studied macroeconomics and especially history of economics. I am an economist by profession. This isn't going to be positive for nobody, including the US. I am really worried. Calculations being used make no sense whatsoever. However, I've been saying for 25 years that it was a bad idea to manufacture so much in China.
Perun with an analysis of the new US tariffs, trade warfare 101, US strengths and weaknesses as it confronts the whole global world at once, and an alternate strategy, even. Worth a watch imho.
I am losing a lot of money right now...i am pissed. I have funds for my kids and they are melting like snow in the sun.
Quote from: Anguille on April 09, 2025, 02:55:03 AMI am losing a lot of money right now...i am pissed. I have funds for my kids and they are melting like snow in the sun.
Yep. There's a lot of money leaving people who really need it and worked hard for it and going to deep pockets - pockets that really, really don't need it.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 09, 2025, 07:15:30 AMQuote from: Anguille on April 09, 2025, 02:55:03 AMI am losing a lot of money right now...i am pissed. I have funds for my kids and they are melting like snow in the sun.
Yep. There's a lot of money leaving people who really need it and worked hard for it and going to deep pockets - pockets that really, really don't need it.
Can you explain to me who is getting richer and how it is part of some scheme, rather than a natural occurrence of the significant change in the global trade framework and order? I'm not asking to be confrontational, I'm genuinely curious about how this angle is being spun.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 09, 2025, 07:44:22 AMQuote from: JudgeDredd on April 09, 2025, 07:15:30 AMQuote from: Anguille on April 09, 2025, 02:55:03 AMI am losing a lot of money right now...i am pissed. I have funds for my kids and they are melting like snow in the sun.
Yep. There's a lot of money leaving people who really need it and worked hard for it and going to deep pockets - pockets that really, really don't need it.
Can you explain to me who is getting richer and how it is part of some scheme, rather than a natural occurrence of the significant change in the global trade framework and order? I'm not asking to be confrontational, I'm genuinely curious about how this angle is being spun.
There are different ways to get richer in time like these. Warren Buffet for instance is getting richer.
https://youtu.be/zKgEl9TCKGI?si=y8Hhxv3vpGa31u8t
Quote from: Anguille on April 09, 2025, 09:09:41 AMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on April 09, 2025, 07:44:22 AMQuote from: JudgeDredd on April 09, 2025, 07:15:30 AMQuote from: Anguille on April 09, 2025, 02:55:03 AMI am losing a lot of money right now...i am pissed. I have funds for my kids and they are melting like snow in the sun.
Yep. There's a lot of money leaving people who really need it and worked hard for it and going to deep pockets - pockets that really, really don't need it.
Can you explain to me who is getting richer and how it is part of some scheme, rather than a natural occurrence of the significant change in the global trade framework and order? I'm not asking to be confrontational, I'm genuinely curious about how this angle is being spun.
There are different ways to get richer in time like these. Warren Buffet for instance is getting richer.
https://youtu.be/zKgEl9TCKGI?si=y8Hhxv3vpGa31u8t
Of course people are going to make money and some are going to lose it too. The suggestion seems to be that the tariffs are the product of a plan to line certain pockets at the expense of others. I'm curious what the basis for this claim is.
I thought this was an interesting debate...
https://abc7chicago.com/post/donald-trump-tariff-formula-team-cites-chicago-economist-brent-neimans-work-he-says-math-doesnt-check/16141896/
https://www.thedailybeast.com/economist-trump-cited-on-tariff-math-says-he-got-it-all-wrong/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/opinion/trump-tariff-math-formula.html
"I think they grabbed the wrong number from our research. The one that I would use from my own research and plug into their equation is actually four times larger than the number they used, and as a result, the deficits they calculated are four times larger than I think they should have got."
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 09, 2025, 07:44:22 AMQuote from: JudgeDredd on April 09, 2025, 07:15:30 AMQuote from: Anguille on April 09, 2025, 02:55:03 AMI am losing a lot of money right now...i am pissed. I have funds for my kids and they are melting like snow in the sun.
Yep. There's a lot of money leaving people who really need it and worked hard for it and going to deep pockets - pockets that really, really don't need it.
Can you explain to me who is getting richer and how it is part of some scheme, rather than a natural occurrence of the significant change in the global trade framework and order? I'm not asking to be confrontational, I'm genuinely curious about how this angle is being spun.
Mate - I really, really don't have any evidence. I'm not that clever :tophat: As you pointed out - I'm just cynical.
I'm not making this political - Trump's name is here because he implemented the policy.
Trump knew (as everyone says how astute he is and how he knows business and how to make money and the art of the deal thingy) that the market will drop like a stone - as would everyone else who knows what he's going to do - and the cynic in me would absolutely believe he would let people know what he's going to do and when.
So they sell high, he implements tariffs and they buy low. Then, he drops the tariffs, market picks up, money made. Well that worked - lets do that again.
You either think Trump knows what he's doing or you think he doesn't. If you think he does know what he's doing, then it stands to reason that you would believe that he would know the market will drop when he implemented tariffs.
Do we not agree that Trump would know what's going to happen to shares when he implemented Tariffs? If you believe he would know, then you kind of would understand if he wanted to shed his shares before he implemented such a policy.
Just about everyone everywhere says implementing tariffs will increase prices locally, will not bring manufacturing back (in the short term) and even if it did, would still mean higher prices because - guess what - it costs more to make something in the US (you know - workers rights, health and safety and everything else) than it would being made in - I don't know, India where workers rights and health and safety are almost non existent.
I reserve the right to be cynical and believe that very rich people are getting much richer - and it's a known consequence of the policy.
I'm not smart enough to go looking at the markets and see what's happening - but I don't know - in my simple head, that makes sense to me.
I would love to see someone investigate his (and others) share activity...just to see if shares were sold and bought and when. It might tell a story.
Please watch the videos I'm posting. They are informative in a bipartisan way in my view and will give you a good education on the history and purpose of tariffs, while pointing out the pros and cons.
There are going to be short and long term consequences of the reaction of the economy to the tariffs and the potential of a trade war. However, the long term goal is to rebuild the US manufacturing base and some believe that the benefit of this will outweigh the short term consequences. Some disagree. But simply saying that Trump knew that the tariffs would destroy the economy while generating money in some sectors at the expense of others somehow makes the policy unsound is a very simple view of it. You have to look at the deeper policy goals. As I have stated above, where I do criticize the tariffs is in the way they have been rolled out and in some of the communication which has left a feeling of uncertainty causing more instability than is probably necessary. But this is entirely separate and apart from the actual policy of tariffs themselves.
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/08/nx-s1-5354937/as-global-markets-fall-trump-says-he-will-not-pause-tariffs
Well, the president was asked if he might put a pause on his tariffs while negotiations play out, and he said no.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/09/business/reciprocal-tariff-pause-trump/index.html
President Donald Trump announced a complete three-month pause on all the "reciprocal" tariffs that went into effect at midnight, with the exception of China, a stunning reversal from a president who had insisted historically high tariffs were here to stay.
:Nerd:
You see, this is the problem with partisan politics. You try something new that people don't like, you get criticized. You make changes or walk it back, you get criticized.
Theoretically, people who were bitching about this being a disaster or complaining about losing all their money should now be grateful, no? I mean, a President who actually changes something that may be having more of a negative impact than anticipated is a good thing, right? Alas, nobody will ever praise Trump for anything, except maybe finally dying.
I won't get into why I don't like Trump. It doesn't really matter anyway...he won't care that I do or not.
You're correct JH - they should be able to change their minds - but if you bear in mind that I'm cynical of the reasons for the tariffs in the first place - you might understand why I was rolling my eyes.
Only a couple of posts agao I said "rinse and repeat". Unless someone actually is able to look deep into his shares activity, I guess we'll never know.
The bipartisan stuff I could go into because we have almost the same issue as yourselves (2 main parties running the show) - but that isn't for this thread.
I will depart now and shout at the clouds :laugh: :Hug:
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 09, 2025, 04:04:36 PMI won't get into why I don't like Trump. It doesn't really matter anyway...he won't care that I do or not.
You don't have to convince me. There is no shortage of things NOT to like about Trump. If you pay any attention to the mainstream media, you're bombarded by those things constantly in a neverending 24/7 "news" cycle, so we're always reminded. Some of it is justified, while, of course, some of it is not.
My opinion on this specific subject is purely from an economic point of view. It's also too erratic and too fast. Even if you want to raise tariffs, you need some form of negotiation and time schedule. From an economical point of view I understand and support the idea that he wants to bring back production facilities in the US. I fully agree. I just don't think that's the way to do it.
Well, it seems at least Sen Adam Schiff is going to be asking questions about whether there was any inside trading going on.
I don't know Senator Adam Schiff from...Adam. I don't know what he stands for and I don't know what he's like as a politician.
I am just glad that someone else is at least curious as to whether there's been any inside trading going on with these tariff moves.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 11, 2025, 03:50:42 AMWell, it seems at least Sen Adam Schiff is going to be asking questions about whether there was any inside trading going on.
I don't know Senator Adam Schiff from...Adam. I don't know what he stands for and I don't know what he's like as a politician.
I am just glad that someone else is at least curious as to whether there's been any inside trading going on with these tariff moves.
You might want to look into who Adam Schiff is before you rejoice for accountability and assume this is anything other than another highly partisan effort to disrupt the Trump agenda.
Yeah...I did read he's very, very anti Trump after I posted.
I'm not bothered about his motives. Frankly I'd have preferred a Republican to do it so the "partisan" argument could be left at the door. Alas...partisanship appears its on both sides of the house.
I'm just glad someone is asking if there could be a check on who was trading and when, the timings of those trades and whether they had knowledge of the tariff plan or not.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 11, 2025, 07:56:41 AMYeah...I did read he's very, very anti Trump after I posted.
I'm not bothered about his motives. Frankly I'd have preferred a Republican to do it so the "partisan" argument could be left at the door. Alas...partisanship appears its on both sides of the house.
I'm just glad someone is asking if there could be a check on who was trading and when, the timings of those trades and whether they had knowledge of the tariff plan or not.
Ask yourself why any politician on capital hill, whose salary is maybe $200,000 annually at best, is a millionaire many times over. Every single last one of them. Why do you think there is so much virulent resistance to DOGE?
For reference, Congressmen make $174,000/year (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL30064#:~:text=The%20compensation%20for%20most%20Senators,from%20Puerto%20Rico%20is%20%24174%2C000.&text=These%20levels%20have%20remained%20unchanged%20since%202009.). Until this January, Mr. Schiff was a Congressman, and had been since 2001.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 11, 2025, 11:37:00 AMQuote from: JudgeDredd on April 11, 2025, 07:56:41 AMYeah...I did read he's very, very anti Trump after I posted.
I'm not bothered about his motives. Frankly I'd have preferred a Republican to do it so the "partisan" argument could be left at the door. Alas...partisanship appears its on both sides of the house.
I'm just glad someone is asking if there could be a check on who was trading and when, the timings of those trades and whether they had knowledge of the tariff plan or not.
Ask yourself why any politician on capital hill, whose salary is maybe $200,000 annually at best, is a millionaire many times over. Every single last one of them. Why do you think there is so much virulent resistance to DOGE?
Setting aside the blatant hypocrisy (DOGE staffers were revealed to be pulling massive taxpaid salaries despite Musk claiming they're not paid), all the resistance I've seen to DOGE is about their methods and qualifications, not their mission. Everybody agrees government waste is too much and politicians are corrupt, but they seem to be taking a "break everything and then see what we need" approach to all manner of things, often without apparently understanding what they're actually doing. The whole stupid "bomb-making condoms for Gaza" thing, which turned out to be a totally different Gaza than the one they thought, is a perfect example. It's one thing to take this approach to a social media company like Twitter, but another thing entirely when people's lives are being affected.
I do hope Musk does something about those ridiculous salaries and whatever shady stuff is going on.
Quote from: al_infierno on April 11, 2025, 03:46:05 PMQuote from: Jarhead0331 on April 11, 2025, 11:37:00 AMQuote from: JudgeDredd on April 11, 2025, 07:56:41 AMYeah...I did read he's very, very anti Trump after I posted.
I'm not bothered about his motives. Frankly I'd have preferred a Republican to do it so the "partisan" argument could be left at the door. Alas...partisanship appears its on both sides of the house.
I'm just glad someone is asking if there could be a check on who was trading and when, the timings of those trades and whether they had knowledge of the tariff plan or not.
Ask yourself why any politician on capital hill, whose salary is maybe $200,000 annually at best, is a millionaire many times over. Every single last one of them. Why do you think there is so much virulent resistance to DOGE?
Setting aside the blatant hypocrisy (DOGE staffers were revealed to be pulling massive taxpaid salaries despite Musk claiming they're not paid), all the resistance I've seen to DOGE is about their methods and qualifications, not their mission. Everybody agrees government waste is too much and politicians are corrupt, but they seem to be taking a "break everything and then see what we need" approach to all manner of things, often without apparently understanding what they're actually doing. The whole stupid "bomb-making condoms for Gaza" thing, which turned out to be a totally different Gaza than the one they thought, is a perfect example. It's one thing to take this approach to a social media company like Twitter, but another thing entirely when people's lives are being affected.
I do hope Musk does something about those ridiculous salaries.
You can pick and choose what to criticize all you want, but the reality is that difficult and painful decisions needed to be made and many are going to suffer as a result. This is necessary so that we all don't suffer in the near future. DOGE doesn't exist by choice. It exists by necessity. Cutting government spending is something nobody and I mean NOBODY, democrat and republican, has had the balls to do in I don't know how many decades. So people can go out and protest by destroying Teslas or Tesla dealerships for I don't know why. DOGE has already saved the US taxpayer billions and uncovered massive fraud, but yeah, lets focus on those few "massive taxpaid salaries".
It's not the salaries I have a problem with but the lack of transparency. It doesn't exactly inspire trust that everything else he's saying is 100% true.
FWIW I agree about the Tesla vandalism thing, it's totally stupid and wrong, especially with the number of leftists vandalizing them with swastikas.
Quote from: al_infierno on April 03, 2025, 04:32:10 PMInteresting article from Steven Jackson Games on the effect of recent tariffs on board gaming.
https://www.sjgames.com/ill/archive/2025-04-03
QuoteOn April 5th, a 54% tariff goes into effect on a wide range of goods imported from China. For those of us who create boardgames, this is not just a policy change. It's a seismic shift.
At Steve Jackson Games, we are actively assessing what this means for our products, our pricing, and our future plans. We do know that we can't absorb this kind of cost increase without raising prices. We've done our best over the past few years to shield players and retailers from the full brunt of rising freight costs and other increases, but this new tax changes the equation entirely.
Here are the numbers: A product we might have manufactured in China for $3.00 last year could now cost $4.62 before we even ship it across the ocean. Add freight, warehousing, fulfillment, and distribution margins, and that once-$25 game quickly becomes a $40 product. That's not a luxury upcharge; it's survival math.
Some people ask, "Why not manufacture in the U.S.?" I wish we could. But the infrastructure to support full-scale boardgame production – specialty dice making, die-cutting, custom plastic and wood components – doesn't meaningfully exist here yet. I've gotten quotes. I've talked to factories. Even when the willingness is there, the equipment, labor, and timelines simply aren't.
We aren't the only company facing this challenge. The entire board game industry is having very difficult conversations right now. For some, this might mean simplifying products or delaying launches. For others, it might mean walking away from titles that are no longer economically viable. And, for what I fear will be too many, it means closing down entirely.
Tariffs, when part of a long-term strategy to bolster domestic manufacturing, can be an effective tool. But that only works when there's a plan to build up the industries needed to take over production. There is no national plan in place to support manufacturing for the types of products we make. This isn't about steel and semiconductors. This is about paper goods, chipboard, wood tokens, plastic trays, and color-matched ink. These new tariffs are imposing huge costs without providing alternatives, and it's going to cost American consumers more at every level of the supply chain.
We want to be transparent with our community. This is real: Prices are going up. We're still determining how much and where.
If you're frustrated, you're not alone. We are too. And if you want to help, write to your elected officials. Ask them how these new policies help American creators and small businesses. Because right now, it feels like they don't.
We'll keep making games. But we'll be honest when the road gets harder, because we know you care about where your games come from – and about the people who make them.
-- Meredith Placko
GMT's Letter of the Month is not a happy read. For all I know they maintain a huge portfolio with a relatively small staff, their games are top notch, and yet,
they fear for their survival: ]April 17 Update from GMT - Tariffs and Action Plan (https://mailchi.mp/2438d2843c59/april-17-update-from-gmt-tariffs-and-action-plan-new-p500s-updated-production-outlook-designer-updates-and-more?e=%5BUNIQID)
QuoteIssue #1. Cash Flow. This isn't the one you hear about as much as you do "game prices" when you hear game companies talk about the tariff impacts, but it's definitely the one most likely to kill us. Because of the 145% tariff, those batches of games that we have currently printing in China (and any subsequent batches) are going to cost us EXORBITANTLY more cash than we planned for when we were told that tariffs would be 10% (we had a plan for that, and even for 20-40%). For example, we currently have 14 games at the printer. The cost to print all of those titles is right around $500,000. It looks right now like they'll be coming in three separate shipments, but that's still in normal times a $500,000 cash commitment from us to pay for all the games. And FYI, P500 charges are designed to provide us with the funds to pay the printers, while other sales to distributors and longer-term direct sales to customers pay for our overhead and create some profits. So right now, as long as a lot of customers don't cancel orders before we charge and ship for those games, we can expect about 500K in P500 income that would in normal times pay for those games.
With the 145% tariff, though, those games will now cost over 1.2 MILLION dollars to get to our warehouse. That's $700,000+ extra for.....basically nothing. So how we price the games (the next issue) isn't the biggest problem we have at all. Rather, it's how to pay for the games at the scale and frequency that we print them with a 145% tariff (in this case, $700K) tagged on. As a business model, with that level of tariffs, printing at a pace we need to in order to cover our overhead, it's unsustainable. Basically that group of three shipments alone, unless we make some big operational changes quickly, will eat up all of our cash reserves and leave us with no funds to pay our employees and other expenses.
(emphasis mine)
... and this is just a small snippet of their newsletter, do read it for the full horror story - and also for how we could help them :HideEyes:
In other news, Lock n Load is halting new orders for games that would require printing for now as well. From their FB group:
QuoteQ: I managed somehow to not pledge for Red Gauntlet, anyone know if LnL will have more available in retail (or reprint)?
A: Hi xxx, I am pretty sure we are already sold out and can't purchase anything from overseas now. We know for sure in a couple of weeks.
:undecided:
I'm planning on buying a couple of games that I ordinarily would not have purchased from GMT. As their post indicates, there is a discount associated with doing so. I encourage y'all to do the same. I lived through the destruction of SPI and Avalon Hill, and it was bad for the hobby. It took over a decade to begin to undo that damage. IMHO, quality game companies like GMT deserve our support.
Quote from: Tripoli on April 18, 2025, 07:28:54 AMI'm planning on buying a couple of games that I ordinarily would not have purchased from GMT. As their post indicates, there is a discount associated with doing so. I encourage y'all to do the same. I lived through the destruction of SPI and Avalon Hill, and it was bad for the hobby. It took over a decade to begin to undo that damage. IMHO, quality game companies like GMT deserve our support.
I am looking for something to buy as well, maybe digital, this time. For instance: https://store.steampowered.com/bundle/28960/GMT_Games_Bundle/
Quote from: Crossroads on April 18, 2025, 07:31:26 AMQuote from: Tripoli on April 18, 2025, 07:28:54 AMI'm planning on buying a couple of games that I ordinarily would not have purchased from GMT. As their post indicates, there is a discount associated with doing so. I encourage y'all to do the same. I lived through the destruction of SPI and Avalon Hill, and it was bad for the hobby. It took over a decade to begin to undo that damage. IMHO, quality game companies like GMT deserve our support.
I am looking for something to buy as well, maybe digital, this time. For instance: https://store.steampowered.com/bundle/28960/GMT_Games_Bundle/
I have all of their computer games, and they are worth buying.
I got an email from Winwing yesterday saying that all shipments to US addresses for orders made from their global store will be halted. They do have a US store that they claim will continue to ship as normal for the time being, but I think the stock is much more limited with the US store.
From the Ukraine thread:
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 25, 2025, 10:46:16 AMQuote from: Crossroads on April 25, 2025, 05:46:14 AMThe Trump administration was quoted estimating that everyone would be 'kissing my a**' and pleading 'Please, Sir, make a deal. I'll do anything. I'll do anything, Sir,' quote unquote. I am not seeing that happening from what I am reading. At all.
Well, to my chagrin that appears to be exactly the UK's position. Rather embarrassed by it if I'm honest.
I found this article interesting in trying to figure out the end game and whether we arrive to any of them.
The Newstatesman; Trump's Plan for Chaos (https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/economy-international-politics/2025/04/donald-trump-plan-for-chaos-tariffs)
Listen, I'm not watching these videos, but based on the titles they don't seem to be unbiased or analytical with respect to tariffs as a general matter. I've been lax on moderating posts that cross over the line of R&P as they relate to the War in Ukraine, but I don't want this stuff to proliferate here. Please give the political stuff a rest.
Thanks.
OK
I think the titles are more inflammatory than the content though.
This last one was specifically talking about corruption due to the constant changing and not corruption at the top level.
Not enough people in government agencies (i think) being able to implement any checks due to the constant changes.
The thread was about tariffs and looking for the explanation and implications of them. I can't vouch for all the videos I've posted because my memory is piss poor, but as far as i recall, they related to the tariffs and the effects of the tariffs or the tariffs and the effects of the constant changes of said tariffs.
I found them interesting. I don't believe any of them reinforced (there might have been one) my belief that Trump was doing it so as people got rich off the back of the chaos.
I could be wrong (piss poor memory)...they may all actually be inflammatory R&P stuff..but I genuinely don't think they were.
But I will cease if it keeps the peace.
Perhaps I should have countered the inflammatory titles with a brief synopsis of the actual content.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on April 28, 2025, 12:31:16 PMOK
I think the titles are more inflammatory than the content though.
This last one was specifically talking about corruption due to the constant changing and not corruption at the top level.
Not enough people in government agencies (i think) being able to implement any checks due to the constant changes.
The thread was about tariffs and looking for the explanation and implications of them. I can't vouch for all the videos I've posted because my memory is piss poor, but as far as i recall, they related to the tariffs and the effects of the tariffs or the tariffs and the effects of the constant changes of said tariffs.
I found them interesting. I don't believe any of them reinforced (there might have been one) my belief that Trump was doing it so as people got rich off the back of the chaos.
I could be wrong (piss poor memory)...they may all actually be inflammatory R&P stuff..but I genuinely don't think they were.
But I will cease if it keeps the peace.
Perhaps I should have counters the inflammatory titles with a brief synopsis of the actual content.
You don't need to go out of your way to summarize a video that has a click-bait title. I just ask all to not post things that are overtly political or partisan in nature and which stray from the fundamental economics of tariff policy.
Thanks.
Based on those videos I would second that the content is quite informative on how tariffs work, while the titles indeed are pure click baits. I did not watch them first for said reason, but then thought to give one of them a try.
He does a good job explaining how tariffs work and how difficult it is for the supply chain to work if there is less continuity in the system.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on April 28, 2025, 02:20:27 PMYou don't need to go out of your way to summarize a video that has a click-bait title.
...
I know. I just meant to make sure people know its an informative video and not some hate bashing nonsense.
I watched a few of his videos and whilst I'm not keen on click bait titles, I will still give them a look in the hope they are informative. Some prove to be so...others get dumped in a minute.
I actually heard about this guy on these very forums. I'd never heard of him before.
Does anyone understand what exactly this means? How exactly does a tariff of "movies coming into our country" work? I assume he doesn't mean literal Blu Rays and 4K discs, because he talks about "movies made in America again," but at this point, I can't make heads or tails of this tweet.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqJK-DEXUAAfQmp?format=jpg&name=small)
I'm just shocked he wants to help Hollywood. That is very magnanimous of him.
I guess that's one way to put it.
To me, the underlying motive makes perfect sense: Hollywood represents a multi-billion dollar industry and one of America's biggest cultural exports, maybe second to Coca Cola or McDonalds. Why would he want Hollywood to shrink and die and for foreign film productions to thrive? That Hollywood is largely liberal/leftist and repeatedly makes movies making fun of him seems secondary to the bottom line. If Hollywood can grow, and he can claim that as a win, that's a good thing all around for him. Not like he's not used to people making fun of him.
In any case, that's all a side conversation to the point I was making: that Trump's tweet is utter nonsense. If I'm understanding right, he's saying that if a foreign film producer spends $5 million to distribute their film in the United States (an exceptionally small number, as I understand), that they would have to pay another $5 million in tariffs? I don't really see how that helps Hollywood thrive, it seems more like it'll strangle already-struggling movie theater chains by limiting what they can show, since nobody in their right mind would pay that kind of fee to distribute their films in the US.
I'm not trying to be argumentative here, I'm genuinely trying to understand WTF his tweet even means, and how that will impact the economy going forward if it goes beyond just farts in the wind.
^honestly, who cares? There are only two kinds of people who even pay any attention to what he says or tweets. Those who hate him and can't help but hang on every word so they can get all riled up about it, and those who love him like he's Jesus and think everything that comes out of his mouth brings the US one step closer to being great again.
I'm not going to worry about tinseltown. The industry isn't dying because producers are being drawn abroad. It's dying because they've managed to churn out mostly garbage films for decades and other forms of interactive media are becoming more dominant. This is just a distraction.
Quote from: Jarhead0331 on May 04, 2025, 10:31:10 PM...
It's dying because they've managed to churn out mostly garbage films for decades and other forms of interactive media are becoming more dominant. This is just a distraction.
I don't want to derail the thread too much - but JH, I don't think you've been to the cinema very often in the last decade.
There have been some excellent movies made - just last week I went to see Sinners. Outstanding film. A Complete Unknown. The Brutalist.
I will grant you there's been a lot of tripe too mind.
Quote from: al_infierno on May 04, 2025, 08:54:02 PMI guess that's one way to put it.
To me, the underlying motive makes perfect sense: Hollywood represents a multi-billion dollar industry and one of America's biggest cultural exports, maybe second to Coca Cola or McDonalds. Why would he want Hollywood to shrink and die and for foreign film productions to thrive? That Hollywood is largely liberal/leftist and repeatedly makes movies making fun of him seems secondary to the bottom line. If Hollywood can grow, and he can claim that as a win, that's a good thing all around for him. Not like he's not used to people making fun of him.
In any case, that's all a side conversation to the point I was making: that Trump's tweet is utter nonsense. If I'm understanding right, he's saying that if a foreign film producer spends $5 million to distribute their film in the United States (an exceptionally small number, as I understand), that they would have to pay another $5 million in tariffs? I don't really see how that helps Hollywood thrive, it seems more like it'll strangle already-struggling movie theater chains by limiting what they can show, since nobody in their right mind would pay that kind of fee to distribute their films in the US.
I'm not trying to be argumentative here, I'm genuinely trying to understand WTF his tweet even means, and how that will impact the economy going forward if it goes beyond just farts in the wind.
I guess coutnries give tax breaks to film companies to shoot in their country...if he puts tariffs on movies shot abroad, those tax breaks, I guess, aren't as lucrative and perhaps movies get shot all over America again instead of the rest of the world.
More jobs - presumably - for US citizens.
I actually thought that was perhaps one of his more "sensible" tariff plans because it could have an immediate impact unlike expecting other industries (car/computer/*insert other manufacturing industry) to suddenly sprout up across the US.
Seems to me this could have an immediate effect in "bringing jobs home".
As for this...
QuoteI'm genuinely trying to understand WTF his tweet even means
Don't bother. The rest of the tweet is absolute nonsense.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on May 05, 2025, 03:22:40 AMI don't want to derail the thread too much - but JH, I don't think you've been to the cinema very often in the last decade.
There have been some excellent movies made - just last week I went to see Sinners. Outstanding film. A Complete Unknown. The Brutalist.
I did say, "mostly" garbage, but you are correct. I've been to a theater maybe three times in the last 3 years. But, I do watch movies that catch my interest when they stream so it's not like I don't know what's out there.
Chinese sellers have quickly outwitted Trump's tariff master plan, by "washing" their products in third countries. With tariff negotiations at an impasse, Chinese imports remain loaded with 145 percent U.S. levies. After they were issued, Xi Jinping's government slapped American goods with reciprocal 125 percent import duties.
In a bid to contravene Trump's tariffs, sellers in the Asian mega economy have started shipping goods to third party countries to conceal their genuine provenance. The process is known as "place-of-origin washing." U.S. trade laws state that goods must undergo a "substantial transformation" in a country for it to become the new 'origin.'
This has presented an opportunity to black market businesses, with Chinese social media sites now awash with people offering origin-washing services. "The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese products? Transit through Malaysia to 'transform' into Southeast Asian goods!" said one advert on Xiaohongshu, posted by "Ruby—Third Country Transshipment." South Korea is another hotspot for this transformative process.
The country's customs agency said it had found $21 million worth of goods with clandestine origins in the first quarter of 2025. "We have found numerous cases where the origins of Chinese products were falsified as Korean," the agency said.
Source : Financial Times
(https://images.forexlive.com/images/china%20exports%20wash%20tariffs%2005%20May%202025_id_5afbdd5d-6e80-4818-bcda-2eaeef772288_size775.jpg)
https://www.ft.com/content/56519df4-79cc-4b72-979b-6a3402e3e9b9
There is nothing new about this. For instance, it has always been very common with government contracts that prohibit certain products from being manufactured with components or raw materials originating in certain prohibited countries.
As long as there are rules, people will try to cheat!
One good thing came out of this for me:
I learned that Germany (the EU?) has 10% import duties on US cars.
Why? It's just ripping off their own citizens. Or it would be if Germans would buy American cars in the first place.
Anyway, if duties like this fall in the wake of this affair that would be a positive outcome. For Germans. Well, 1 or 2 of them.
The film industry here in Canada and in Vancouver especially is pretty huge and friends who work in it are freaked out right now.
I don't know exactly how the tariffs would be imposed but there's a definite chilling effect on the industry here.
I'm guilty of more than a bit of schadenfreude based on other, tangentially-related recent events in this country.
Quote from: Crossroads on April 18, 2025, 04:51:06 AMGMT's Letter of the Month is not a happy read. For all I know they maintain a huge portfolio with a relatively small staff, their games are top notch, and yet, they fear for their survival:
April 17 Update from GMT - Tariffs and Action Plan (https://mailchi.mp/2438d2843c59/april-17-update-from-gmt-tariffs-and-action-plan-new-p500s-updated-production-outlook-designer-updates-and-more?e=%5BUNIQID)
GMT's May Newsletter (https://mailchi.mp/d9b1cafc22e4/may-22-update-from-gmt-new-p500s-progress-update-new-digital-games-production-update-art-samples-and-more) with a much more positive tone, how great is that!
It also seemed all of us gamers chipping in with something helped them a great deal with their cashflow issues :ThumbsUp:
And it would seem they managed to have their shipment coming in with "only" a 30% tariff, instead of the 145% discussed a month ago. So sounds like they are weathering the storm after all.
Interestingly, there is talk about how they have upgraded their shipping options to ship directly from their printer, without coming to US, first. For international customers such as myself it would obviously be a better deal to not pay any interim tariffs at all.
They do mention how they have continued to find a US printer though. Their "Goldilocks problem" was that they only found printers who were either too small or too big for their needs. It sounds like they are making progress. Next War: Taiwan 2nd Ed. needs to be printed outside China, it seems.