Trouble in Mosul

[Centurion40]

Yeah I know it's weak, but so is any active conflict going down the road to WWIII.

The WTC was a terrorist attack.  If it had been clear that Russia or China sponsored the attack, sure there could have been WWIII.

Meanwhile say ISIS attacks Turkey, Turkey invokes NATO, we all come to Turkey's aid (not that they'd need it, unless they also provoke the Kurds into open rebellion, and neo-Kurdistan makes an alliance of convenience with ISIS) diverting attention from Russian shenanigans in Eastern Europe... assuming Vlad would take advantage, and he might.  It could blow-up.

[JasonPratt]

Mom this morning: "Argh! I saw a news crawl last night that said the President said the mountain top wasn't a problem anymore, but I couldn't find anything saying why, and I still can't find anything this morning on the news! What happened, did we send in the Marines to give them a heroic rescue out while beating the fool out of those ISIS guys using our weapons, like Iron Man?" {paraphrased}

Me: "Um, no. The Syrian Kurds went in and rescued them and fought off the ISIS guys, and then let them stay or sent them on their way as they wished. Now the Yadz' are singing the praises of the Syrian Kurds, though to be fair the Iraqi Kurds we were supporting with a few air strikes did try -- they just got beat and ran away."

Mom: "...what." {paraphrased}

Me: "Yeah, it was epic! For the Syrian Kurds I mean. The US military has basically one main job outside the US, to help large numbers of people in desperate trouble, and we couldn't be assed enough to do it. The Yadzis are saying things like 'We are grateful from our heads to the sky and to the end of time!' and how wonderful someone cared enough to save their lives at the risk of their own."

Mom: "....sigh." {paraphrased}

Me: "Well, maybe we were too busy helping save the Iraqi Christians and Shiites from being slaughtered and driven from their homes and just couldn't project enough force to help them, too, in time... oh. Wait."

Mom: "....SIGH!!" {paraphrased}

[LongBlade]

Mom this morning: "Argh! I saw a news crawl last night that said the President said the mountain top wasn't a problem anymore, but I couldn't find anything saying why, and I still can't find anything this morning on the news!

Last night reports were on Fox that there are now only 2500 people on the mountain - half of whom are shepherds and want to remain there.

The rest? It is not clear if they escaped/were slaughtered/were massively overestimated. Whatever the reason, the numbers are now effectively irrelevant.

[Boggit]

Mom this morning: "Argh! I saw a news crawl last night that said the President said the mountain top wasn't a problem anymore, but I couldn't find anything saying why, and I still can't find anything this morning on the news!

Last night reports were on Fox that there are now only 2500 people on the mountain - half of whom are shepherds and want to remain there.

The rest? It is not clear if they escaped/were slaughtered/were massively overestimated. Whatever the reason, the numbers are now effectively irrelevant.

According to interviews on Channel 4 News with Kurds on the ground, there are still many people there, many of whom are unable to get out on their own due to being scattered, disabled, too young, or infirm.. The snake ISIS needs to be stopped now with real force. The US and Europe have the power to do it, but the President's and Prime Minister's need to grow a pair, and do what needs to be done to kill the Islamist cancer before it spreads further. The moral cowardice of doing nothing is not a wise option. Leaving the cancer to spread is stupid. Not only is it in the interest of the people who live in Iraq, but the West and Israel too.

[OJsDad]

Mom this morning: "Argh! I saw a news crawl last night that said the President said the mountain top wasn't a problem anymore, but I couldn't find anything saying why, and I still can't find anything this morning on the news!

Last night reports were on Fox that there are now only 2500 people on the mountain - half of whom are shepherds and want to remain there.

The rest? It is not clear if they escaped/were slaughtered/were massively overestimated. Whatever the reason, the numbers are now effectively irrelevant.

Read the article I posted on previous page.

[Boggit]

Not all of the Kurds are buddy-buddy with the Turks. 

More like "none of the kurds are buddy-buddy with the Turks" since the PKK have been waging a low-level insurgency for 30+ years.

Actually, the Iraqi Kurds have been working with Turkey.  How do you think the Iraqi Kurds are getting their oil out of the country.

True.

Turkey has been aiding Iraqi Kurdistan, first quietly, and now openly, to establish a quite lucrative oil export economy. Why do you think Maliki is so pissed at them? Turkey probably sees Iraqi Kurdistan as as amodel of Kurdish ambition alternate to the one espoused by the PKK, since it is outside of Turkey.

Good thinking there. It would solve a lot of tensions if the Kurds had their own state. The problem is that Turkey is historically unlikely as a nation of land grabbers to give up territory seen by Kurds as traditionally Kurdish. The experience of Northern Cyprus is a good example of Turkey grabbing land, sitting on it and then colonising it.

[Boggit]

Maybe the best thing that could happen is for ISIS to attack Turkey. Than NATO countries would be obligated to get involved...

...or ignore their treaty obligations, fracture the alliance, and hand Russia eastern Europe on a platter. It could go that way too, I guess.

ISIL is a common enemy. It is in Russia's interest to side with Turkey too. There is no love lost between the Russian's and the Islamists. Leaving aside the Ukraine/Former Warsaw Pact Russian Empire for a moment, the Russian's don't want ISIL on their doorstep.

[Airborne Rifles]

Maybe the best thing that could happen is for ISIS to attack Turkey. Than NATO countries would be obligated to get involved...

...or ignore their treaty obligations, fracture the alliance, and hand Russia eastern Europe on a platter. It could go that way too, I guess.

ISIL is a common enemy. It is in Russia's interest to side with Turkey too. There is no love lost between the Russian's and the Islamists. Leaving aside the Ukraine/Former Warsaw Pact Russian Empire for a moment, the Russian's don't want ISIL on their doorstep.

Oh I agree. Russia has much more to fear from ISIS than the West and they know it. My only point is that the integrity of NATO rests on the confidence that all of the members will defend any of the members if attacked, and if that is undermined, say by our president refusing to get in loved in Iraq to protect Turkey, it could fracture the alliance, particularly with how vulnerable the Baltic states and Poland are feeling these days.

[Boggit]

Maybe the best thing that could happen is for ISIS to attack Turkey. Than NATO countries would be obligated to get involved...

...or ignore their treaty obligations, fracture the alliance, and hand Russia eastern Europe on a platter. It could go that way too, I guess.

ISIL is a common enemy. It is in Russia's interest to side with Turkey too. There is no love lost between the Russian's and the Islamists. Leaving aside the Ukraine/Former Warsaw Pact Russian Empire for a moment, the Russian's don't want ISIL on their doorstep.

Oh I agree. Russia has much more to fear from ISIS than the West and they know it. My only point is that the integrity of NATO rests on the confidence that all of the members will defend any of the members if attacked, and if that is undermined, say by our president refusing to get in loved in Iraq to protect Turkey, it could fracture the alliance, particularly with how vulnerable the Baltic states and Poland are feeling these days.

But that is a persuasive argument to comply. Does the US want to see any more Russian expansion? Moreover, sometime in the future the US is going to have a very major disagreement with Chinese expansionism in Asia, and neo-colonialism in Africa, all of which have the capacity to damage American prestige and economic interests. The US will be looking for allies when the crunch comes. If they've blown NATO, what is to compel Europe to supporting the US? The whole point behind the treaty is the mutuality. Whilst, the US presently has the largest military in the world that may change over time. If you take the bigger picture, dealing with Iraq/ISIL may be an uncomfortable pill to take, but it's better than the alternatives, which make the world even more unstable.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/08/18/how-much-it-costs-the-u-s-to-blow-up-captured-u-s-military-hardware-in-iraq/

You know it's gone to shit when you have to spend a fortune to blow up your own shit.

[Boggit]

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/08/18/how-much-it-costs-the-u-s-to-blow-up-captured-u-s-military-hardware-in-iraq/

You know it's gone to shit when you have to spend a fortune to blow up your own shit.

But what choice do they have? The alternative is less palatable.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

At this point none. The point is to not step in it in the first place. Maybe the guiding principle is do not start what you cannot see the end of. Easier said than done I know.

[GDS_Starfury]

when you get down to it we still havent seen the end results of WW1 or 2.
a nation state of our size and power cant sit back and do nothing.  and thats the problem with being a superpower.
ya want to be the Godfather?  ok....  but heres all the shit that goes along with the job...

[Boggit]

when you get down to it we still havent seen the end results of WW1 or 2.
a nation state of our size and power cant sit back and do nothing.  and thats the problem with being a superpower.
ya want to be the Godfather?  ok....  but heres all the shit that goes along with the job...

That's the truth!

[GDS_Starfury]

I think it says a lot that, for all we've done we still don't keep what we fight for.  it's a principle not a territory.