Consolidated Syria Conflict Thread

[mirth]

Time to break out some books on the subject that I haven't read for awhile.

[LongBlade]

This report says *at least* four Russian missiles crashed in Iran.

http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/08/russian-missiles-aim-for-syria-hit-iran-instead/

[LongBlade]

This report says 26 missiles in total were launched.

Russian officials had said 26 cruise missiles were launched at 11 Islamic State targets, which were destroyed without causing any civilian casualties.

So, yes Mirth, your 15% failure rate was on the money.

source: http://www.voanews.com/content/nato-slams-russia-escalation-in-syria/2996565.html

[Swatter]

We are no where near a major war here. The major parties (US and Russia) are only involved for domestic political reasons. Obama is involved because he is forced. Obama, politically, cannot ignore ISIS beheading Americans. Taking military action in the Middle East is the last thing he wants to do in the first place. Putin is in it for different reasons which probably include boosting his internal image as a leader who can humiliate America with impunity. Russia is the definition of paper tiger and Putin knows it. I have no doubt the Putin believes he has Obama figured out and so far he has been correct. Could he push Obama too far? Short of some insane provocation, Obama will not put up resistance. This is all just political theater to Putin, so I think he will rationally and carefully poke at the US, as long as it brings him easy political gain.

I just don't see the national interests of US and Russia conflicting enough to amount to anything. Perhaps I am wrong, Putin could be trying for a major power grab in the Middle East, but I don't think the Russian military has the ability to support a major military effort in Syria. In short, Syrians are just going to continue killing each other until one side has achieved enough foreign aid to achieve a decisive advantage. I think Iran will be the real winner in all of this.

[mirth]

We are no where near a major war here.

Maybe, but no one thought much of it at first when Franz Ferdinand got popped.

[bayonetbrant]

http://www.wearethemighty.com/intel/russian-forecaster-bombing-syria

[LongBlade]

We are no where near a major war here.

Maybe, but no one thought much of it at first when Franz Ferdinand got popped.

I don't think the US and Russia and/or China are going to cross swords.

However, the Iranian leadership has a belief system that encourages them to invite apocalypse.

Details here: http://worldnews.about.com/od/iran/f/12thimam.htm

[mirth]

I don't think they are either, but it's this kind of Charlie Foxtrot that leads to even bigger Charlie Foxtrots.

[Gusington]

Considering Russia a paper tiger is never a good idea. Ask Napoleon or Hitler. That said, neither Russia or China is near the military level of the United States right now. But what is disturbing to us as Americans is that the perception is that American power is on the decline while Russia and China's power is perceived to be on the rise.

The situation in the Middle East right now is new and really complex - who would have thought this new mess up in 1990 when Saddam Hussein's Iraq invaded Kuwait?

[Staggerwing]

We are no where near a major war here.

Maybe, but no one thought much of it at first when Franz Ferdinand got popped.

At least one guy saw it coming though...

"One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans."  -Otto Von Bismarck

[mirth]

We are no where near a major war here.

Maybe, but no one thought much of it at first when Franz Ferdinand got popped.

At least one guy saw it coming though...

"One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans."  -Otto Von Bismarck

Otto was quite the prophet as it turned out.

"Jena came twenty years after the death of Frederick the Great; the crash will come twenty years after my departure if things go on like this" - a prophecy fulfilled with the Kaiser's abdication almost twenty years to the day after Bismarck's death.

[Staggerwing]

In all fairness to history Bismarck did have a hand in the beginning of the end. In his attempt to safeguard the new German nation he had so many diplomatic plates spinning on poles that when Kaiser Bill sacked him there was no worthy successor sorcerer's apprentice step in and take over the circus act.

[bayonetbrant]

A point I saw on FB.  Not sure how 100% valid it all is, but even if halfway valid, still concerning

Not only would Britain or Spain be unable to mount the sort of air campaign the Russians are waging in Syria. They cannot run a huge space programme, develop rockets like the Angara rockets, build a space centre like Vostochny, develop the Arctic, construct nuclear powered ice breakers, or feed themselves. Nor can they build a bridge as rapidly as the one the Russians are building to Crimea. Nor can they create alternatives to Google like Yandex, or alternatives to GPS like GLONASS, or alternatives to SWIFT like the Russians have done in just a few months.
In military production, any idea any European state can simultaneously develop fifth generation fighters like the SU T50, tanks like the Armata, submarines like the Yasen and the Borei, or missiles like the Bulava and the Yars, is sheer fantasy. Russia does all these things, and much else.
It does them without strain. In the middle of a recession Russia's budget deficit is 3% of GDP — less than Britain's or Spain's; and roughly the same as the US. Its balance of trade is in surplus. So far from being financially exhausted, Russia has far lower levels of debt than any Western state.

[GDS_Starfury]

but their subs, planes and tanks arent equal to what NATO already has.
the Russian economy isnt as robust as most other western systems are.

[mirth]

I'm not quite ready to relocate to the Worker's Paradise.