Consolidated Syria Conflict Thread

[pawelj]

Next stop - No Fly Zone over Syria.

Fine in principle, but who does it benefit? I can't see the Russians, or Assad's lot going along with it.

As to strikes on IS, would the US, France, or the UK really want a no fly zone? How else will they project power against IS?

It certainly helps the Kurds who are the real combatants on the ground against IS. Any no fly zone will not help them, much to the delight of Erdogan and his Turkish government, who are probably on a land grab anyway. And Turkey hasn't exactly been squeaky clean over its dealings with IS either... why hurt the efforts of our best ally against IS?

When I say no fly zone I mean no Syrian/Russian fly zone. The coalition (The Good Guys) would do what is what it like to bomb IS ans obviously police the no fly zone. Of course with Obama still in the office that is no a very likely proposition, but it is the correct way forward. 

[Boggit]

Next stop - No Fly Zone over Syria.

Fine in principle, but who does it benefit? I can't see the Russians, or Assad's lot going along with it.

As to strikes on IS, would the US, France, or the UK really want a no fly zone? How else will they project power against IS?

It certainly helps the Kurds who are the real combatants on the ground against IS. Any no fly zone will not help them, much to the delight of Erdogan and his Turkish government, who are probably on a land grab anyway. And Turkey hasn't exactly been squeaky clean over its dealings with IS either... why hurt the efforts of our best ally against IS?

When I say no fly zone I mean no Syrian/Russian fly zone. The coalition (The Good Guys) would do what is what it like to bomb IS ans obviously police the no fly zone. Of course with Obama still in the office that is no a very likely proposition, but it is the correct way forward.

Well I can see that the Western, Saudi and Gulf state governments would like it to happen, but I can't see Russia and Al Assad (nor Iran) buying into it. I can see Turkey using it to hit the Kurds, with lots of recriminations from the other Western governments, (but with Saudi and the Gulf just turning a blind eye to attacks on the Kurds).

At the moment there is no 'coalition' per se, save for the air strikes contributors on IS, and without troops on the ground (save for the Kurds) to identify targets, a 'coalition' air supremacy will do little to damage IS, who can hide behind human shields/set up dummy targets etc. Moreover, why would Russia and Al Assad go along with a no fly zone, when that will mean they lose a significant method of power projection and would then pay for its loss with increased ground casualties? I wouldn't if I were Putin or Al Assad. From their perspective the idea is just stupid.

It's still difficult to know who exactly are the good guys fighting Assad. There are a multitude of different forces and allegiances fighting Al Assad, some of whom have changed their public branding like the Al Nusra Front affiliated to Al Queda. It is a hotchpot of shifting alliances of Islamists, Secularists, Democrats etc who are in alliance sometimes and sometimes fighting each other. The so called good guys have committed plenty of atrocities against minorities just as Al Assad has committed atrocities against the Sunni majority. Both Iran and Saudi fight it as a proxy sectarian war, Al Assad for survival of his regime, the Russians to maintain their influence, the Turks to get at the Kurds (and the Turks have been very cosy with IS for a long time). I could go on and on, but you get the drift that it is a messy war with a lot of different agendas being fought for my both sides.

The sad thing is that this war is just going to continue until the parties fighting the proxy war get tired of it. That might not happen for a long time, and the civilians caught in the middle - on both sides - will inevitably pay a price in blood.

My own view is that it is better to carve the country up along ethnic and sectarian lines as independent states. You then can only hope that they'll stay within their own borders and keep to themselves. Unfortunately the hatred runs deep on both sides, so I don't know if that would work, but at least it's an idea worth mooting.

[bayonetbrant]

Nobel Peace Prize for Syrian rescue teams?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/05/the-guardian-view-on-the-nobel-peace-prize-give-it-to-syrias-white-helmets

[JasonPratt]

You mean the White Helmets who have deep ties to Al-Qaeda and help with the executions, and who most likely took out the Red Crescent Aid convoy (warning people two days in advance it was going to be hit so not to get involved with it)?

Yeah, I noticed Time Magazine had a cover story on them this week, making them out to be one of the few cheerworthy good guys in the region. (Complete with a famous quote from one of the Syrian Patristic writers on the cover, which I happened to recognize but which I failed to find reference to in the article. Granted I was bouncing around in city traffic at the time.)

Maybe they have a number of bad apples but the group itself isn't entirely compromised yet. Hard to tell.  :(

[Gusington]

The White Helmets are Al Qaeda??

[Staggerwing]

I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the Regime has been trying to smear the White Helmets' public profile with Al Qaida rumors. The volunteer rescue group represent a kind of public hope and defiance of Assad's inhuman war on civilians.

[Gusington]

I don't know what to believe anymore.

[Barthheart]

That's kinda the point of propaganda in war.  O0

[Gusington]

I thought the point was to believe the side spewing out more "correct" propaganda...

[Ubercat]

I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the Regime has been trying to smear the White Helmets' public profile with Al Qaida rumors. The volunteer rescue group represent a kind of public hope and defiance of Assad's inhuman war on civilians.

Assad is like Hillary Clinton. A total scumbag, but the alternative is worse.

[Sir Slash]

Wait until Assad wakes-up one morning and finds a horse's head lying in bed next him with 'From Russia With Love' on a note stuck in it's teeth.  :-X

[Staggerwing]

"Leave the gun- take the Halva..."

[JasonPratt]

I thought the point was to believe the side spewing out more "correct" propaganda...

That reminded me of seeing a film of Goebbels (I think maybe in the World At War series or its secondary collections) addressing a German audience in his nifty little schlaeger-fencing way (which I recognized immediately, and then realized I should never, ever use when public speaking or people will connect that back to Goebbels  :'( ) -- and he's literally bragging to them, explicitly, about how enemy propaganda is crap, not because it's false but because Nazi propaganda is vastly much better.

And everyone was cheering him like he was promising them free gold. (...which, in a way, he was. A horrible, horrible way.  )

[JasonPratt]

I wouldn't be surprised to hear that the Regime has been trying to smear the White Helmets' public profile with Al Qaida rumors. The volunteer rescue group represent a kind of public hope and defiance of Assad's inhuman war on civilians.

Now that you mention it, I wouldn't be surprised about that either. Or even by infiltrating people into the group who then act in support of Al Qaida.

[Boggit]

Given that Christians, nuns, priests were specifically targeted by the FSA especially in the early years of the war it is hard to know who actually are the good guys - if any. I also remember Syrians dancing in the streets after 9/11 burning US flags, so again, who are the good guys?