Consolidated Syria Conflict Thread

[Silent Disapproval Robot]

Daniel Pipes predicted this sort of reaction from the politicians and the media after the Paris attacks.

In essence, the more reality is at odds with their world view, the more entrenched they'd become in their positions.  The denial is fascinating to watch.

Daniel Pipes: Why the Paris massacre will have limited impact


(This article by Daniel Pipes originally appeared in National Review Online, on November 14, 2015.)

The murder of some 127 innocents in Paris by a jihadi gang on Friday has again shocked the French and led to another round of solidarity, soul searching, and anger. In the end, however, Islamist violence against Westerners boils down to two questions: How much will this latest atrocity turn public opinion? And how much will it further spur the Establishment to deny reality?

As these questions suggest, the people and the professionals are moving in opposite directions, the former to the right, the latter to the left. In the end, this clash much reduces the impact of such events on policy.

Public opinion moves against Islamists specifically and Islam more generally when the number of deaths are large enough. America's three thousand dead on 9/11 stands out as by far the largest mortality but many other countries have had their equivalent – the Bali bombings for Australia, the railroad bombing for Spain, the Beslan school massacre for Russia, the transportation bombings for Britain.

Sheer numbers are not the only consideration. Other factors can multiply the impact of an assault, making it almost the political equivalent of mass carnage: (1) The renown of those attacked, such as Theo van Gogh in the Netherlands and the Charlie Hebdo office in France. (2) The professional status of the victim, such as soldiers or police. (3) High-profile circumstances, such as the Boston Marathon bombing.

In addition to the over 27,000 attacks globally connected to Islam since 9/11, or more than 5 per day (as counted by TheReligionOfPeace.com), a huge increase in illegal immigration from the Middle East recently exacerbated feelings of vulnerability and fear. It's a one-way street, with not a single soul ever heard to announce, "I used to worry about Islamism but I don't any more."

These cases make more Westerners worried about Islam and related topics from the building of minarets to female infibulation. Overall, a relentless march rightwards is underway. Surveys of European attitudes show 60 to 70 percent of voters expressing these concerns. Populist individuals like Geert Wilders of the Netherlands and parties like the Sweden Democrats are surging in the polls.

But when it comes to the Establishment – politicians, the police, the press, and the professors – the unrelenting violence has a contrary effect. Those charged with interpreting the attacks live in a bubble of public denial (what they say privately is another matter) in which they feel compelled to pretend that Islam has no role in the violence, out of concern that to recognize it would cause even more problems.

These 4-P professionals bald-facedly feign belief in a mysterious "violent extremist" virus that seems to afflict only Muslims, prompting them to engage in random acts of barbaric violence. Of the many preposterous statements by politicians, my all-time favorite is what Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont, said about the Charlie Hebdo jihadis: "They're about as Muslim as I am."

This defiance of common sense has survived each atrocity and I predict that it will also outlast the Paris massacre. Only a truly massive loss of life, perhaps in the hundreds of thousands, will force the professionals to back off their deeply ingrained pattern of denying an Islamic component in the spate of attacks.

That pattern has the very consequential effect of shutting out the fears of ordinary voters, whose views thereby have negligible impact on policy. Worries about Shari'a, rape gangs, exotic diseases, and bloodbaths are dismissed with charges of "racism" and "Islamophobia," as though name-calling addresses these real issues.

More surprising yet, the professionals respond to the public's move to the right by themselves moving to the left, encouraging more immigration from the Middle East, instituting more "hate speech" codes to suppress criticism of Islam, and providing more patronage to Islamists. This pattern affects not just Establishment figures of the Left but more strikingly also of the Right (such as Angela Merkel of Germany); only Eastern European leaders such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán permit themselves to speak honestly about the real problems.

Viktor Orbán's Hungary may not last long in the EU. Or maybe he is the group's future leader?

Eventually, to be sure, voters' views will make themselves heard, but decades later and more weakly than democratically should have been the case.

Placing the murderous rampage in Paris into this context: it will likely move public sentiments substantially in one direction and Establishment policies in quite the opposite way, therefore ultimately having only a limited impact.

[Bison]

Until such a time that it's recognized that being proud of western civilization is ok and isn't racist or xenophobic and not being beholden to a nonsensical guilt for past transgressions the west is doomed to accept the consequences of Orwellian thought and speech by the political elite.  And I'd also put the irrational, headlong, and thoughtless "progress" toward globalization in the category of political thought that needs to be readdressed. 

[Gusington]

It's pretty clear to me that globalization is in the shitter.

[LongBlade]

[MikeGER]

whatever you guys do, don't let the #rapefugees in your country too

Cologne Police chief got pulled ...well, not for fail on the job , more for letting the politicians including Cologne major look so bad

[undercovergeek]

Merkel is willing to allow it to be easier to deport asylum seekers who commit crime according to the news today

almost like she originally thought the incoming flood would be all Mary and Joseph on donkeys with good honest virtues

[Silent Disapproval Robot]

I think Frau Merkel is more influenced by white guilt and the stupid notion that she needs to atone for Germany's past.  her parents were good socialists from the DDR and I think their views influenced her.

Look at her reaction when someone tried to hand her a German flag at a political rally last year.  She obviously despises the idea of German nationalism.

This idea seems to be shared by a fair number of Germany's politicians.

[undercovergeek]

wow - she does not want the flag!

i thought the UK was bad for squashing patriotism and nationilistic views, and im not talking about shaven headed assholes

[jejo68]

So now the genie is def. out of the bottle in sweden.

Turns out we had a similar event to cologn in sweden back in august at a concert, where girls as young as 11 and up where sexually assualted by muslim gangs. The whole mess was covered up by police and media, so as not to give more support to the swedish national party (no they Aren´t far right wing, just like their country to stay swedish). And now it turns out alot more is going on over there, and malmo had a very similar attack as cologne on new years eve. Again no reports before now.

[Gusington]

This is insanity. I hope it gets...rectified.

[jejo68]

This is insanity. I hope it gets...rectified.

Now it turns out it has happened for at least 2 years in a row at this concert, so I guess its now officially legal since the police dont investigate this shit.

[JasonPratt]

Christ.

I'm sitting here thinking, "Y'know, there were times the Ku Kux Klan had its moments...." 

(My only personal connection to the Klan happens to be when my grandfather's grandfather let a posse go through his fields to approach the house of a man who had been beating his wife and had been warned to start treating her right or she'd soon be a whole lot freer to look for a husband who would respect her. I don't know whether she ever did, but she was very soon afterward widowed after he lynched himself, so she had the opportunity.)

Of course, that kind of anarchy will lead to its own horrible abuses (see: the Klan for example). But I have to wonder how long it will be before people lose so much confidence in the state that they resort to imposing their own justice -- with the consequent and almost-certain risk that hatred will lead them into injustice against people who are only like their rightful targets (not counting probable injustice against their rightful targets).

[undercovergeek]

Christ.

I'm sitting here thinking, "Y'know, there were times the Ku Kux Klan had its moments...." 

(My only personal connection to the Klan happens to be when my grandfather's grandfather let a posse go through his fields to approach the house of a man who had been beating his wife and had been warned to start treating her right or she'd soon be a whole lot freer to look for a husband who would respect her. I don't know whether she ever did, but she was very soon afterward widowed after he lynched himself, so she had the opportunity.)

Of course, that kind of anarchy will lead to its own horrible abuses (see: the Klan for example). But I have to wonder how long it will be before people lose so much confidence in the state that they resort to imposing their own justice -- with the consequent and almost-certain risk that hatred will lead them into injustice against people who are only like their rightful targets (not counting probable injustice against their rightful targets).

i dont think a lot of european cities affected by the huge influx are too far away from that to be honest - not so much personal attacks but mosque burnings, and social buildings

i listened to the ex leader of the EDL on the radio this weekend, hes been overseas and is now returning as the head of a european-wide right wing party - it was the usual rhetoric but a lot of it made enough sense that you could foresee a huge tide turning in their favour - lots of mentions of disrespect for our women, an inbred rape culture amongst muslims with no empathy for women or girls, rape gangs accepted in their society. Here in the UK a few muslims were arrested for been part of such a gang in the north of england - however, they preyed on homeless, parentless, disaffected kids in state homes - there is such an undercurrent of hatred now, that if and when they grab an actual child with caring parents, someone who is likely to contact that person we all know about getting a gun, then the street war starts i feel

[Gusington]

Invoking the KKK is never a good idea.

[mirth]

Invoking the KKK is never a good idea.

Beetlejuice...Beetlejuice....