Turkey shoots down Russian jet

[Centurion40]

The crumbling of Turkey's secular government and its evolution into a theocracy.

Yeah, maybe.  Or perhaps Erdogan is catering to these guys:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalist_Movement_Party

who appear to hold the leash of these guys (or maybe it is the other way around):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_Wolves_(organization)

A staunchly Pan-Turkist organization, in the early 1990s the Grey Wolves extended their area of operation into the post-Soviet states with Turkic and Muslim populations. Up to thousands of its members fought in the Nagorno-Karabakh War on the Azerbaijani side, and the First and Second Chechen Wars on the Chechen side. After an unsuccessful attempt to seize power in Azerbaijan in 1995, they were banned in that country.[36] Kazakhstan in 2005 also banned the organization, classifying it as a terrorist organization.[37][38]

Under Devlet Bahçeli, who assumed the leadership of MHP and Grey Wolves after Türkeş's death in 1997, the organization has been reformed.[39] Despite this, its members have been involved in a number of violent attacks and incidents directed mostly against Kurds. The organization has also been active in the Turkish-controlled portion of Cyprus. It has affiliated branches in several Western European countries with significant Turkish populations, such as Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany. In Germany, they are the largest[40] far-right organization with at least 10,000[13] members and are monitored by the authorities as an extremist organization.[41]

[LongBlade]

I think the Greek economic/political crisis is playing a role, too. Greece may be too preoccupied to give an increase in perpetual incursions much thought.

[Centurion40]

Interesting.  Although it is Wikipedia, Erdogan's AK Parti is described as "Neo-Ottomanist".

Neo-Ottomanism (Turkish: Yeni Osmanlıcılık) is a Turkish political ideology that, in its broadest sense, promotes greater political engagement of the modern Republic of Turkey within regions formerly under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, its predecessor state. More recently, it has also been associated with the promotion of reviving Ottoman culture and traditions within Turkey.

The word was coined by the Greeks after Turkey's invasion of Cyprus in 1974.[1]

In the 21st century, the term has come to signify a domestic trend in Turkish politics, where the revival of Ottoman traditions and culture has been accompanied by the rise of the ruling Justice and Development Party. The use of the ideology by Justice and Development Party has mainly supported a greater influence of Ottoman culture in domestic social policy which has caused issues with the secular and republican credentials of modern Turkey.[2][3] The AKP have used slogans such as Osmanlı torunu (descendant of the Ottomans) to refer to their supporters and also their former leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (who was elected President in 2014) during their election campaigns.[4] These domestic ideals have also seen a revival of neo-Ottomanism in the AKP's foreign policy. Besides acting as a clear distinction between them and ardent supporters of secularism, the social Ottomanism advocated by the AKP has served as a basis for their efforts to transform Turkey's existing parliamentary system into a presidential system, favouring a strong centralised leadership similar to the Ottoman era. Critics have thus accused Erdoğan of acting like an Ottoman sultan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-Ottomanism

[Centurion40]

If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him.  But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.

[W8taminute]

If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him.  But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.

I think it's not a good idea to let them rekindle the Ottoman empire. 

[Centurion40]

If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him.  But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.

I think it's not a good idea to let them rekindle the Ottoman empire.

Why not??!!  They could contain all of this Islamic war bullshit to themselves; like the bad/good ole days.  We'd just need to find a way to protect Greece and Israel.  The Saudis can fend for themselves.

[Gusington]

It may be the least worst option, to have a Turkish led caliphate...let them try to clean this mess.

[Centurion40]

It may be the least worst option, to have a Turkish led caliphate...let them try to clean this mess.

Then the loonie Sunnis wouldn't be focussed on us, they'd be focused on Istanbul- or Tehran, the capital of Shiite Islam.

[LongBlade]

If Erdogan wants to roll into Syria and Iraq in order to re-establish Ottoman rule, more power to him.  But he might also want Greece, and that's a big 'no-no'.

I think it's not a good idea to let them rekindle the Ottoman empire.

Why not??!!  They could contain all of this Islamic war bullshit to themselves; like the bad/good ole days.  We'd just need to find a way to protect Greece and Israel.  The Saudis can fend for themselves.

I have no idea what the US/West's goal is these days, but several years back (ten?) I was reading articles about people speculating that Turkey could possibly have a sphere of influence across points east - most of which are places that don't like us and we'd rather not babysit.

I think (though my memory has faded) that Turkey's tilt toward more religion put the kabash on that plan.

However, I think the goal remains in Turkey's mind - they'd like to play a big role in shaping some of Central Asia. Being part of NATO, and were they more secular like they used to be, I suspect we'd probably be OK with that arrangement.

[W8taminute]

They could just be using the excuse that we'll take care of things for you as a guise to mask their true intentions.  Don't forget the Ottomans were at the gates of Vienna when they were trying to convert the west to their religion.

[GDS_Starfury]

  We'd just need to find a way to protect Greece and Israel.  The Saudis can fend for themselves.

Im pretty sure Israel can take care of itself.

[besilarius]

Galeotti is a top british expert on Russia.

https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2015/11/25/russia-turkey-deconfliction-and-distrust/

[Nefaro]

While I have little trust of Turkey's path in recent years, and think there needs to be some serious re-thinking about their NATO inclusion if the trend continues, I also can't help but wonder if this was just the type of incident Putin had hoped for when he moved his air forces in on the Turkish doorstep.

Turkey has been worried about the Russkies for a very long time, of course.  That's why they ended up wanting into NATO so long ago.  I doubt their distrust has waned much since the fall of the USSR, and having Russian air forces now buzzing their borders on the opposite side, it's easy to see that they'd get real jumpy.  I think most of us, here, could see this as a likelihood before it even happened and some probably even said so.

That's why it makes me think that such incident(s) would be even more obviously likely to the Putin regime, before they went in.  Regular run-ins with NATO in the same close vicinity are inevitable and given enough time something is gonna get damaged or shot down. 

I'm not much for conspiracy theories but I wouldn't put it past Putin to be pushing further run-ins with NATO in order to justify further nationalist support & fear-mongering about NATO threatening them, back in Russia for domestic consumption.  That would provide further domestic support for his previously stated goal of re-establishing the Soviet sphere.  He's definitely been stoking the old Soviet alliances around the globe, in recent years, culminating with this latest Syrian foray.  Could be two birds with one stone.

This may well be a more cut & dried defense of their old allied regime, despite the obvious extra conflict it would cause.  But my theory is something to consider.  Putin seems to be on a Realpolitik course.

[Gusington]

Splitting the NATO alliance has got to be at the very top of Putin's to-do list. Getting Turkey to engage without going through NATO channels is a good way to do that.

[LongBlade]

Splitting the NATO alliance has got to be at the very top of Putin's to-do list. Getting Turkey to engage without going through NATO channels is a good way to do that.

Yeah.

If Turkey were, say, Andorra, then booting them out of NATO would be a foregone conclusion.

Turkey is a member of Europe and NATO for one reason: Constantinople.

Well, that and what followed.

Were the passage out of the Black Sea not home to Turkey they'd likely have been left to languish in the mire of whatever-the-flavor-of-the-month-called-the-"mideast".

It's well past time to reclaim the Hagia Sofia for the West but that doesn't rank high on our agenda right now. So we'll tolerate their lack of sensibility of borders to the north and overreaction to their sensitivity to the south.