EU: Headed Toward Superstate or Breakup?

[Gusington]

Good article in the Economist:

http://www.economist.com/node/21555916

I personally think the EU is headed for some place in between a remade superstate and a collapse...a few countries will be shed (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, maybe Italy) and the nations that are left will soldier on.

This is the closest in my lifetime that Europe is to reverting to the way it was before my lifetime.

[Centurion40]

Break-up is inevitable.  It may go through a "super-state" phase, but break-up will happen.  It will happen to the USA and it will happen Canada.  Although it may take a couple of hundred of years yet.

[Gusington]

And to think not that long ago everyone in the West was saying that 'union' was inevitable. Another good article from the Financial Times:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37aaf234-a32f-11e1-8f34-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1voaIZgyJ

With a good German quote: 'Better an end with horror than a horror without end.'

That is one of the most German phrases I have ever read.

[Centurion40]

Probably sounds cool in German too.

[Windigo]

Probably sounds cool in German too.

Fraulin vonSchlippyderSchnitzel said it best.... OMG OMG OMG!!!

[Gusington]

^Is that the sound of a German panicking?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Greece could sell one of it's islands to Germany for all it's debt. That would keep the EU together. Otherwise it is probably going to be Greece, Spain, Ireland, maybe Portugal, maybe Italy out.

[besilarius]

There's a commentary at Strategypage.com on Greece.
According to that, Greece set this whole thing up back in the 2001.  To join the Eurozone, they claimed to have no more than 1.5 percent deficit of the gross domestic product.
A former finance minister revealed it was actually 8.5.
http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/2012052223245.aspx

[Gusington]

^The plot thickens...

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

When 2 sides are convinced they are being robbed, war is inevitable.

[Windigo]

these days wars between civilized nations is economic.... Greece will crater on the devaluation

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

these days wars between civilized nations is economic.... Greece will crater on the devaluation

Every age probably thought it was the most civilized... Eva. Until it all went to shit.


Here's hoping it doesn't.

[LongBlade]

these days wars between civilized nations is economic.... Greece will crater on the devaluation

Every age probably thought it was the most civilized... Eva. Until it all went to shit.


Here's hoping it doesn't.

QFT

I don't see a shooting war because of Greece.

But nations have gone to war over less.

[Gusington]

That would be a great Larry Bond novel. Germany invades Greece [again] to get what's owed.

There's probably a 1% chance of that really happening but it would make good reading.

I get the strong vibe that Germany is quietly seething at the southern European Mediterranean countries.

[LongBlade]

I get the strong vibe that Germany is quietly seething at the southern European Mediterranean countries.

I'm not sure what the overall mood in Germany is.

Their largest state just had an election and the Socialists made shocking gains. Those who follow the politics say this could be very bad news for the Conservatives at the national level.

Which means that even Germany, the fiscally sane nation of the EU, could be about to drink the kool aide and go on a spending spree.

My brain struggles to understand why, in a moment of clearly obvious choice, Germany would decide to shoot itself in the foot. But there ya go.

Pause and think about this.

The Western world is on the brink of going bankrupt in its entirety. All of it in one big puff of economic collapse. Completely self-inflicted.