Post Brexit political issues within the UK

[Boggit]

Man alive, Boggit. Have you always written such long posts, or it this something new? 

You make Jason Pratt look succinct by comparison!

LOL! ;D

This IS something new. I never knew I could be so passionate about democracy in action.

I feel like I've been liberated from a tyranny (I know the EU is not tyrannical per se, but it is very undemocratic in practice)! In principle, we will be able to live by our own laws again.

[undercovergeek]

ive heard a lot today about the the possible way forward in 2 years time - which pisses me off actually

Get a new Tory leader in october, general election in November, put forward proposals for UK outside EU before pressing the button on Article 50, and then having a referendum again to see if those proposals are acceptable - possibly reversing the decision taking last week

[Boggit]

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/people-are-really-really-hoping-this-theory-about-david-cameron-and-brexit-is-true--bJhqBql0VZ

Well that is one view, and by the tone of it from a disappointed remain voter. It is not just the conservatives who are split, but Labour too because the remote mainstream parties were happy with the status quo, and the referendum proved the people weren't. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/jeremy-corbyn-clinging-to-labour-leadership-as-11-shadow-cabinet/

We were all being told by the complacent mainstream media and political parties that it couldn't happen. Now it has they are wondering wtf do we do now? As I pointed out before the referendum there will be attempts to subvert or ignore a vote that doesn't reflect the will of the political élites, and that is also exactly what we are seeing.

I suspect that if the result had gone the other way, disappointed Leave supporters would be looking to whoever would support their disappointed views. The issue of questioning a democratic referendum result for another to try and get a different result is proof of this (and the willingness to ignore a democratic decision by either some Leave or Remain politicians shows just how dishonest and ill fitting for office both are). If Leave supporters had lost the far right was an obvious beneficiary as they will "listen to concerns" and will "support" Brexit for their own agenda purposes, quite apart from the efficacy or otherwise of the EU.

As I pointed out to ComradeP, people get attracted to extreme politics when they feel there is nowhere else to go. Look at the situation in your own country. Trump was the GOP outsider, but rightly or wrongly, he offers an alternative to the status quo business as usual approach of mainstream politicians. Is his success proof of the failure of US mainstream politics to provide meaningful answers to the concerns of the electorate? I think so.

[Boggit]

ive heard a lot today about the the possible way forward in 2 years time - which pisses me off actually

Get a new Tory leader in october, general election in November, put forward proposals for UK outside EU before pressing the button on Article 50, and then having a referendum again to see if those proposals are acceptable - possibly reversing the decision taking last week

+10000000000000000000000000 O0 And then some!

I'm totally with you. The people made a clear statement to leave the EU with 1.6 million more voters in favour of Brexit, in for what was for once an actually representative vote. (Every vote was counted, each vote mattered).

I have no problem in immediately entering into pre Art 50 negotiations with the EU to decide an exit framework which works for both parties.

I'd be keen to trigger article 50 right now, but I'm concerned that 2 years is a too rigid timescale for sorting out over 40 years of ever closer political union. Yes, the UK should now leave, but negotiations should not be rushed in the interest of both the UK and the EU.

I see this move as an attempt by the supporters of the EU to follow the precedent of ignoring referendums until the EU, or at least, in this case, the supporters of the EU get the result they want. It's a totally dishonest and undemocratic approach. It was particularly obvious with the referenda on the EU constitution. The French, and Dutch referendums in 2005 were ignored, the Irish referendum in 2008 was ignored, and then their government had a second referendum in 2009 to provide their desired result.

I predicted my concern of this both before, and immediately after the referendum:
http://grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=16806.msg445597#msg445597
http://grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=16806.msg452799#msg452799
http://grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=16806.msg454093#msg454093

I sincerely hope that we will not be cheated of our democratic decision too, but I fear that the product of democracy is not the result wanted by the Remain camp now. They want to overturn democracy for de facto dictatorship. That is tyranny! >:(

[undercovergeek]

yup, i snorted at the EUs original knee jerk reaction - 'the remaining members will decide when the UK will leave' but thinking about it now i hope they get really uppity about it and actually kick us out - when the main Leave campaigner suggests there is no rush to leave in the next 2 years - it sets alarm bells ringing

[Boggit]

What I found amusing is that the 2nd referendum petition was initially set up by a pro-Brexit supporter before the first referendum who thought that they would lose. It had 22 signatures before referendum night, then the pro-EU crowd found it and took it over.

It is the hypocrisy of politicians on both sides. Leave or Remain, whatever the outcome had been, the vote should be respected as the will of the people.

I have waited literally decades for the chance to have my say on the EU. Now I have had the chance to express my view they want to reject it because it doesn't suit. If remain had won would the media and mainstream politicians be mooting a second referendum? ...I don't think so either. >:(

[Boggit]

yup, i snorted at the EUs original knee jerk reaction - 'the remaining members will decide when the UK will leave' but thinking about it now i hope they get really uppity about it and actually kick us out - when the main Leave campaigner suggests there is no rush to leave in the next 2 years - it sets alarm bells ringing

+1 O0

Maybe it is best to trigger art 50 now, rather than suffer from Cameron's cowardice to accept the decision.

I don't think the time limits to negotiation are helpful, but so be it. Treaties are commonly varied over time, and in the absence of a reasonable timeframe to conclude all matters from a 40 year union, I wouldn't be surprised if there were breaches of it at a later point.

What we need now is political leadership from Cameron, not his cowardice in the hope he can get the last laugh on the voters. People will be even more distrustful of the EU than ever before if the decision is ignored or reversed.

[airboy]

I looked at the UK Bookies line a couple of days before the vote.  About 10 - 1 against leaving.  Why were they so wrong?

According to today's Wall St. Journal a couple of things happened with the odds makers.
1] All of the big bets were on staying in the EU.
2] The big bookies are all based in London and London was big pro-EU.

There were only 3 10,000 pound bets on leaving the EU while the rest of the big bets (including one 100,000 bet) were to stay.

[airboy]

There has been considerable talk about a 2nd referendum, Scotland vetoing the exit vote, etc.....

All I can say is that if a district was strongly for leaving the EU that the MP who votes to stay will lose the next election.  Parliament thwarting the will of the voters would have extremely negative consequences politically in the UK.  It may turn on the issue of Scotland remaining in the UK (for a while) if Parliament votes not to invoke Article 50.

[undercovergeek]

i think its a risky move for Scotland with a lot more to be considered

they may very well gain their independence from the UK based on our decision to leave the EU. IF the EU breaks up anyway and collapses where does that leave Scotland then - Unionless and EUless - is Scotland strong enough to stand on its own with an EU crutch to lean on. I understand Northern Ireland and Scotlands desire to leave - they are net benefiters from the EU, England isnt, however, Wales is and they still voted to leave but i think that had a lot to do with the steel industry collapse

[Sir Slash]

I predict in a years time the EU will be wanting to join Britain.

[Boggit]

There has been considerable talk about a 2nd referendum, Scotland vetoing the exit vote, etc.....

All I can say is that if a district was strongly for leaving the EU that the MP who votes to stay will lose the next election.  Parliament thwarting the will of the voters would have extremely negative consequences politically in the UK.  It may turn on the issue of Scotland remaining in the UK (for a while) if Parliament votes not to invoke Article 50.

I've just been watching PM questions in Parliament. He has reaffirmed that the UK will respect the Brexit referendum result, and the UK will leave. He has said that HMG will seek to obtain the best possible outcome for all of the UK including Scotland, but the implication is that Scotland will not get another independence referendum on the Brexit point.

I have mixed feelings about this, as remaining in the EU was an implied promise of the previous Scottish referendum, and is important to the 62% of those who voted to remain in the UK. That said, a substantial number of Scots (38%) also went against almost the entire political establishment as part of the Leave vote of the UK. As Scotland was not an independent country at the time of the Brexit referendum, I can see their point of view that Scotland and the EU are not automatically entwined.

All that said, I still think with regard to the implied promises made to the Scots in the first referendum, it is only fair and democratic that they have their say in a new Scottish referendum to set the matter to rest without the taint of the EU issue hanging over them.

If the Scots vote for independence, then fair enough. Their vote must be respected. If they choose to remain in the UK, then the issue of leaving the EU must be settled with that decision.

Whether the Scots will actually get accession to the EU, irrespective of achieving independence is a moot point. I suspect there are many vested interests in several firmly pro EU countries who would not like to see it, as it will set a precedent for sovereignty in their own countries. In Spain, the Basque and Catalonian nationalists will be encouraged, in France, the Breton nationalists, in Germany the Bavarian nationalists. The lists go on...

So I can see the justice of giving the Scots a second bite of the cherry, but I can also see that the aspiration of EU membership might be stymied by other EU nations who will be taking a huge risk in endorsing another independence movement, while suppressing their own.

But roll the dice and let them fall where they may. It is up to the Scots in my opinion.

[Boggit]

I predict in a years time the EU will be wanting to join Britain.

There may be some irony to that. :)

If the UK subsequently do well, and other member states leave, then there is no reason not to make treaties cooperating with each other in the mutual interest. Only with free nations there will be more flexibility to tailor such treaties to the needs of the signatories, rather than 27 diverse countries.

[bayonetbrant]

[Boggit]

I looked at the UK Bookies line a couple of days before the vote.  About 10 - 1 against leaving.  Why were they so wrong?

According to today's Wall St. Journal a couple of things happened with the odds makers.
1] All of the big bets were on staying in the EU.
2] The big bookies are all based in London and London was big pro-EU.

There were only 3 10,000 pound bets on leaving the EU while the rest of the big bets (including one 100,000 bet) were to stay.

Because the government and the media were convinced that no one would really stand up to their world view. They are were totally disconnected with the concerns of voters in their London bubble.