Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

As previously noted, "Completely pissing off the Cossacks" was step... 4?... in Putin's strategy.

Haven't yet reached Step x, profit.

[Dammit Carl!]

I can only assume that stuff like this was known to those in the scrum before, but to broadcast something like this in the open is the highlight of stupid.

Congrats.  Now, I could see any and every Ukrainian soldier and civilian fighting to the very end and then some.  We're looking at WW2 Japanese-defense-Okinawan-level resistance from here on out on an invading force that doesn't seem to be doing so well at the moment on a good day. 

[FarAway Sooner]

As morale frays, it gets very easy to lose control of combat units in circumstances like this.  It ain't smart, but it's not like any army in history is without sins.

What sets the Russians and their allies apart in this conflict is the frequency with which this horrific stuff happens and the ability of modern cell phones to capture and transmit this info in near-real time.  If you compare that to the rigid censorship and long delays of military reporting on both sides in previous wars, it's truly revolutionary.

A skeptical voice in the back of my head says that we can't know whether all this stuff is real or not (we know that the Russians lie perpetually because they contradict each other and their previous statements on a daily basis, but if I were the Ukrainians and I were fighting for the survival of my country and my country's soldiers, I wouldn't hesitate to lie if it served my purposes).  A more pragmatic voice says if only one quarter of it is  true then the Russians and their allies are truly the monster's here.

That raises a different question:  What does victory look like for the West in Ukraine?  If the Russians simply retreat beyond Ukrainian borders and aren't forced to have a reckoning with what their government and their soldiers did here, we'll just be looking at another incident in another country sometime in the next few decades.

The German and Japanese people were brought to a reckoning after WW II through much harsher consequences than losing their iPhones, BMWs, and Big Macs for a few years. 

[Gusington]

Victory for the West in Ukraine, and victory for Ukraine in Ukraine, at this point...are different scenarios.

Ukraine obviously wants to liberate all its occupied territory and kill as many Russian troops as possible. And now revenge is seeping into their strategy too.

Russia...clearly just wants to destroy Ukrainian identity and if it destroys 2/3 of the country in the process, creating a buffer between east and west, so be it.

The West is regularly accused of caving to the Russians in some way, whether its accepting Russian aggression, not providing enough weapons or other material support, or not being as dedicated to the cause as the Ukrainians would like.

I didn't want to believe this was turning into a war of attrition that would last many months or years but that is definitely, exactly what it is turning into.

Real victory for the West here would be regime change and modernization in Russia after a catastrophic set of military setbacks.

[GDS_Starfury]

and how is that accomplished without this going nuclear?
thats really the crux of the problem here.  yes, NATO could roflstomp the russians without much of a problem but where does that lead?

[Gusington]

With time. Years. From the inside of Russia.

[FarAway Sooner]

Would even peaceful regime change within Russia be enough to really put an end to this problem?  We were all hopeful, after the end of Communism and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, that we might finally be turning the page on Russian aggression and imperialism.

Fast-forward 20 years, and they've (re)embraced a strong man doing the exact same crap as the Communists did to Western Europe for 45 years after WW II.  I had high hopes for a change in Russian popular attitudes after the end of the Cold War, but I've seen no such thing. 

If Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan serve as any example, we have to rub Russians' nose in the shit for years on end before they're willing to shoulder responsibility for their own tendencies that led them to embrace a war of aggression.  I've seen little sign of that.

The realistic best-case scenario is probably that some sort of regime change in Russia means that Russia can gracefully exit Ukraine, or at least draw back to the lines occupied prior to this year's assault.  Ukraine is then able to join NATO, modernize their army further, and Russia will remain under sanctions until it either relinquishes the rest of Ukraine or provides all the war criminals that the world decides it needs to.

By then, hopefully, some combination of sanctions and the inbred mismanagement of the Russian kleptocracy will have them playing the role of handmaiden to China, exporting tall blonde women to their Asiatic neighbors while beating their chests about how manly and tough they are.  What a bunch of losers!

[JasonPratt]

They should have really concentrated on "Russia in one nation" first, so to speak. ;)

But kleptos gonna klept.

[Gusington]

Great news...for people who love bad news :/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62381425

[GDS_Starfury]

I honestly dont give a fuck anymore.

[Gusington]

Of course you do.

[GDS_Starfury]

nope
push that nuclear brink, fuck it.
this moment will define most of the next century in geopolitics. go hard or go home.

[Sir Slash]

The world's always been one mistake away from Nuclear War since Russia then other countries followed. Nothing new here for about 70 years. America's nuclear arsenal is what's allowed us to live those 70 years and remain free. The worst possible mistake would be to dispose of it now.  :wow:

[W8taminute]

Just a friendly reminder but I can't get into exact details without getting into trouble.  But think of it like this.

"This world is like the Titanic, sinking fast.  There is a lifeboat however, you just need to believe."

That lifeboat could be a SpaceX rocketship, an underground bunker, or something else? 

YouTube "This world is sinking fast" and watch for the results that come up.  Just Watch man.  PM me with questions or comments but don't post it here or anywhere else on this site. 

[JasonPratt]

Our people have known for about 2000 years that the world is sinking fast. Sometimes we ourselves have contributed to that, alas. (Respecting each other, and our 'older brothers', better and more consistently along the way would have been more helpful for everyone.)

Well, maybe the world is going down for the last time this time, and maybe it's not -- it has apparently been going down for the last time several times before! But either way it's good to have an anchor, and a map and navigation tools, and a sail in good repair to catch the wind during the calms and ride through the storms, until we reach our ports.

Ammo and cannons don't hurt either.  8) As long as we aren't raiding other ships along the way.