Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

I think the benefits outweigh the costs.  the west's support has wrecked the russian military for pennies on the dollar and I'm all in for calling the bullies bluff to this day.
the Ukraine has done an amazing job blunting the russian army while only being given bits and pieces of western kit thats ment to be used as a coherent whole. 

[Crossroads]

I think the benefits outweigh the costs.  the west's support has wrecked the russian military for pennies on the dollar and I'm all in for calling the bullies bluff to this day.
the Ukraine has done an amazing job blunting the russian army while only being given bits and pieces of western kit thats ment to be used as a coherent whole. 

This is where I stand as well. While I am obviously biased, as everyone is, hopefully, Ukraine when not left alone is or at least should be well willing and able to defend herself.

While Russia is bigger of the two, manpower should not be the issue. Will to fight together with proper equipment should balance the books more.

And, the world is moving towards a place where authoritarian countries more and more probe by the bayonet, moving forward when weakness is expected. Time to stock up on deterrence.

[Skoop]

We should ensure that Ukraine can resupply the weapons we've sent them, so they can continue to defend themselves and fend off any further avdivka situations.  But this really seems like a frozen conflict DMZ situation.  It's really about preserving Ukrainian lives, so they can live to fight another day or even better, live as a deterrence to a future fight.  Freezing the conflict will allow for fortification of the country and actually getting them western weapons in large numbers to make ä difference.

[JudgeDredd]

Some of you guys are so emotionally invested in the outcome of this war that you seem incapable of acknowledging cold hard truths. The reality is that Ukraine has very little chance of winning the war as it stands with the present status quo.

I'm genuinely not incapable of acknowledging  the cold hard truths.

In fact, I've said all along (memory permitting) that Ukraine needed more investment than what they wer egetting...and I don't mean money. I mean airpower, boots on the ground...I'm talking NATO involvement.

We can't just fight "third world" countries in the name of peace and democracy and not acknowledge that elsewhere when it's against (arguably) a more competent nation. In case anyone is in any doubt, I'm talking about getting involved in 1991 in the liberation of Kuwait (correctly) and now. This is a similar thing...a country's border and freedom has been challenged. In 1991, we got involved. In 2022, we didn't. You (again, royal you) tell me the difference (without mentioning money).

I perceive that Ukrainians' own conviction that they can and will win is shaken and beginning to falter. In short, Russia has the strategic initiative and Ukraine has tremendous obstacles to overcome in order to shift the balance back into its favor.

Ukraine is not going to win this war. Not ever. At least not without full, unadulterated support from the west. That means NATO...or at the very least, the full, unadulterated backing of the EU. They can't win. They will run out of blood, money, equipment. Russia will outlast them - regardless of what the West putsd in - unless that is a full on, hard core entry of the West.

Your (not the royal you in this case) argument is the argument of advocating isolationism. That's fine - if that's where you stand - but my argument is that it's not where we should be standing. I agree with you. Money, bombs, the odd tank squadron, an occasional F-16 fighter, some air defence euquipment - is only going to slow down the death of Ukraine.

1. Moscow is fighting a much smarter, more capable war and while neat twitter videos of Russian vehicles blowing up are cool, they do not show the big picture. Russia has been able to convert its major size advantages into battlefield gains. Russia has a bigger economy, a bigger arms industry, and a bigger population than Ukraine. These are unassailable facts, and in this war, they matter. Compounding this, the Russian military, much as it did in WWII, has learned from its mistakes...poor logistics, unsuitable and badly maintained equipment, failure to arrange "defenses in depth", etc. The Russians also closed the electronic and drone gap and cut the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones and precision weapons by dispersing potential targets, learning how to jam communications, and scrambling GPS signals. Furthermore, Russian troops have constructed deep and well-designed defensive zones with layers of antitank ditches, dragon's teeth, mines, and prepared firing positions. The cost of breaching these zones is prohibitively high for Ukrainian attacks.

Again - I'm not arguing.

Facts - Russia draws on a population that is more than 3Xs the size of Ukraine's, and its economy is 10Xs as big. Ukraine's ammunition stocks have been so depleted that they were rationing bullets in Avdiivka. On the other hand, Russia has plenty of weapons and munitions for its artillery and infantry and Western sanctions have been ineffective at curtailing this since Russia has adapted and discovered ways to dramatically increase its war-industry output (see below). This is a war of attrition and the longer it lasts, the more Russia is favored to win.

No argument. But - I'd like to see the figures of Russia against NATO, not just Ukraine...because that's what I am advocating.

2. Russia is arguably at an advantage due simply to its political system. Even a "quasi" democracy such as Ukraine must heed political and institutional norms and processes, public opinion, and international humanitarian law. Russia, an autocracy, on the other hand, need not. Putting aside the obvious political advantages of what is essentially a dictatorship when it comes to fighting a war, how do the political differences translate into gains or losses in the war?

First, manpower.  Putin does not need to justify the astronomical human toll the war has taken. Conscription is very uneven geographically and socially. Soldiers often come from poorer groups and regions while Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other cities show few signs of military mobilization. In 2022-2023, the Russian ranks were filled with criminals and convicts. When soldiers are hurt or wounded, they receive superficial medical care and are returned to the front without delay. By contrast, Ukraine must agonize over recruitment decisions. Of the volunteers who signed up in the early days of the war, only the most severely injured have been discharged. The rest are either dead or still fighting. Corruption in the draft system is a big problem too. The urge to avoid service in the trenches led to widespread bribery and many draft age men have fled the country.

As noted above, there is the unavoidable fact that Ukraine just has a much smaller pool of potential recruits than Russia. Ukraine has three times as many men in their forties as in their twenties. largely due to economic depression in the 1990s and low birth rates. The search for soldiers has led recruitment officers to raid gyms and shopping centers and take men from their villages without warning. At the same time, Ukraine must consider the demands of an economy that is lacking labor due to the military's manpower needs.

Second, allies. Russia is overcoming Western sanctions through the help of Abu Dhabi, Beijing, New Delhi, Pyongyang, and Tehran who gladly sell drones, ammo, and goods it can no longer procure elsewhere while in exchange buying Russian minerals, petrochemicals, and other exports. With the exception of India, all these partners are autocracies whose citizens have few if any rights and therefore cannot protest the actions of their governments. Meanwhile, Ukraine has western democracies who tend to be less resolute because they are responsible to their constituents. NATO faces challenges due to a handful of recalcitrant members (Hungary, I'm looking at you) and we all know what its happening in the halls of Congress.

I think the only bright spot in this war for Ukraine is its maritime successes and ability to sink Russian warships. A third of the Black Sea Fleet is at the bottom of the Sea. Ukraine's success at making the Black Sea unsafe for Russia's navy has kept alive a vital transport corridor that commercial ships can use to reach Odessa. But this alone will not be enough to win the war. With Russia holding the initiative, and with Ukraine facing massive shortages of both troops and ammo, it is difficult to see how Ukraine can regain ground. I'm not suggesting that a favorable outcome for Ukraine in a war of attrition is totally impossible, but it would require it to outlast a numerically superior enemy through a very long war. Russia, given its advantage in troops and materiel, can simply play a game of endurance.

This outlook gives me no joy, but it is how I see the war and its present strategic balance, or rather, imbalance.

I could not agree more.

But again your arguments are based on "support" for Ukraine. I'm talking about Support.

First and foremost, I'd like to see the West form a defensive pact with Ukraine - much like the UK did with Poland in WWII.

I know the horse has bolted here. In WWII Poland hadn't been invaded by Germany when the UK signed the pact - but we could at least sign it as an ongoing concern...continue your assault on the "free and democratic" (I'll put that in quotes for some people here who might want it in quotes) nation of Ukraine and we will get involved.

That's the first step.

We'll see where we are after that...but in between, step up production capacity. Armour. Shells. Drones. Missiles. Then get to personnel.

I am under no illusions - Ukraine winning this war against Russia involves the West's involvement. Whether that includes America or not is in question - and whether it could even succeed without America's involvement is also debateable.

I'm utterly gobsmacked at the West's lack of integrity in getting involved in a war they absolutely should be front and centre in.

Iraq 1991 - yes.
Bosnia - yes.
Kosovo - yes.
Afghanistan - No.
Iraq 2003 - No.
Libya - No.
Syria - No.
Ukraine - 100% YES.

Ukraine is a free and democratic country that has been invaded by another country. That is the kind of fight that needs to be fought. As Kuwait in 1991.

As nations, you can pick your fights - but you will be judged on the kind of fights you pick (again - the royal you).

I may not have reacted properly to yourt post JH - it's difficult to quote/edit such a large post in such a small window - but I did the best I could.

I would end on this...and I do think I've mentioned this before.

If we (the west) are to kowtow to Putin simply because he mentions he's got Nukes...where exactly does that leave us?

I know - as NATO - that leaves us in the realm of "Do what you like - we are NATO and we will deliver when you attack one of our countries"...though I personally think we would be/currently are sending out a message of "Well, just be aware we might defend each other - it really depends on the stakes"...but I'm talking about protecting a sovereign nation from abuse/invasion/capitulation...where does that leave us then?

I'll tell you - "You crack on pal...nothing to see here".

So yeah - as NATO, we're "secure" (although I would argue Putin is working on that). But as nations that believe in demoocracy and defending that democracy, I say that leaves us bare. Naked. And Putin then knows where he stands.

Sorry. I understand this comes across as a wee bit emotional. Perhaps even dismssive. I truly tell you I'm not being dismissive about Nuclear War. I will admit to being emotinal. I am passionate that we get involved in conflicts that require our assistance and stay out of ones that do not.

This particular conflict, I do believe, we need to be an active part of. He needs to understand that our resolve cannot be bought by using the N word.

I don't thinK I could be any clearer than that.

One thing I would like to say - as you mentioned the X videos. I don't like them. They cheapen life. Yeah - I'v ecalled for the removal of the "cockroaches" from Ukraine. That's my bad - dewhumanising them. They are simply soing their masters will - as is every member military. When I see those bodies fly, it makes me sick to my stomach. Sick to my stomach that we can take pleasure in seeing such carnage. I don't have a clue who those soldiers were or what they had been through. They could be conscripts for all I know...not really wanting to be there or perhaps volunsteering because of the lies their government have told them or maybe even they needed the money being offered by the Russian government.

What I do know is people are dying for a cunt. That needs to be put in check. Now.

[JudgeDredd]

...It's really about preserving Ukrainian lives, so they can live to fight another day or even better, live as a deterrence to a future fight.  Freezing the conflict will allow for fortification of the country and actually getting them western weapons in large numbers to make ä difference.

That is not our call. That's Ukraines call. Our call is whether we can give Ukraine every, single centilla of support we can in order to force russia to the table and give Ukraine it's country back...even if that equates to us telling Ukraine "Look...your best deal to get your nation back is for us to tell Russia you will not be part of the EU or NATO...if we can tell them that, and they l4eave, then that's a win

But ultimately, whether Ukraine cedes territory is only governed by the west in terms of support. Ukraine has already made it clear they are not willing to cede territory...but they might be willing to tell Russia they will not seek NATO or EU admission.

That might be enough (might) for Russia to save face and fuck off.

If that could be done, then the EU countries could sign a defensive pact with Ukrainer in order to secure that deal...no admission to NATO or the EU.

[Gusington]

Remember Wagner?

[MengJiao]

...It's really about preserving Ukrainian lives, so they can live to fight another day or even better, live as a deterrence to a future fight.  Freezing the conflict will allow for fortification of the country and actually getting them western weapons in large numbers to make ä difference.

That is not our call. That's Ukraines call. Our call is whether we can give Ukraine every, single centilla of support we can in order to force russia to the table and give Ukraine it's country back...even if that equates to us telling Ukraine "Look...your best deal to get your nation back is for us to tell Russia you will not be part of the EU or NATO...if we can tell them that, and they l4eave, then that's a win

But ultimately, whether Ukraine cedes territory is only governed by the west in terms of support. Ukraine has already made it clear they are not willing to cede territory...but they might be willing to tell Russia they will not seek NATO or EU admission.

That might be enough (might) for Russia to save face and fuck off.

If that could be done, then the EU countries could sign a defensive pact with Ukrainer in order to secure that deal...no admission to NATO or the EU.

France is assembling an alliance of countries that are open to sending Western troops to Ukraine.

The French point out that nobody has any obligation to Russia in terms of not sending troops to Ukraine.  Moreover, it might be much cheaper in the long run for all concerned to send a couple of French Armored Divisions and shut this war down.

Be that as it may...why did Russia leak the conversation where the Germans said it might be a good idea just to send some troops to Ukraine?  Why leak that unless you want an excuse for shutting down this war?

As the French say:

"It is not for Russia to tell us how we should help Ukraine in the coming months or years," Séjourné said at a meeting chaired by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and attended by his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba. "It is not for Russia to organize how we deploy our actions, or to set red lines. So we decide it among us."

[MengJiao]

If that could be done, then the EU countries could sign a defensive pact with Ukrainer in order to secure that deal...no admission to NATO or the EU.

It's too late for that.  Ukraine had a deal with Russia and gave up its nukes.  and then Russia attacked them in 2014.
What kind of a deal can Russia offer?  What kind of ceasefire would anyone expect them to keep?

France will have to send in troops and shut this war down in any case since the Russians can't be trusted.

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1766504217928446329

[GDS_Starfury]

and a massive Ukrainian drone strike probably took out another A-50 awacs on the ground.

[Crossroads]

Russia is is well versed in first creating problems then offering solutions to said self-created problems if only her reasonable demands are met. In the beginning of the war, creating a global famine was in the playbook. Luckily, that did not pan out.

Another example by the way of Russian reflexive control where for reasons what may there were no neutral fleet created to secure the seaway in fear of escalation I suppose. Would be nice to see Russia for once offered an escalation threat.

Regardless, this is such good news.

https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1766476595118653949

[ArizonaTank]

Nice overview of the state of drone warfare in Ukraine. Taught me a bit about Ukraine's locally developed Raybird 3, long range drone.

[Con]

There is a lot of focus on the battles but history has taught us the logistics and economic factors coupled with the socioeconomic will eventually lead to an eventual winner 
Either through force of arms or collapse at home 
Russia has made a lot of economic moves for short term tactical stability 
Eventually all those interconnected levers will start bearing down in many diverse ways  Some can be forecasted but many will be a surprise  and not a pleasant one for the Russians

[GDS_Starfury]

in that vein of thinking I would have to give a ton of credit to the EU in keeping the Ukrainian economy above water.

[JasonPratt]

So, um, huh. Did anyone have St. Petersburg on their bingo card?

Links collected by the Enforcer. Gorelovo Industrial goes up southern corner of the west port area:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1bbfy78/it_is_reported_that_in_the_gorelovo_industrial/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

And at the airport, far south side of the city:

https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1766876146543542569?s=20

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1bbbt2k/in_st_petersburg_explosions_were_heard_near_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1766907497229554109?s=20


Was that where you were hearing about the A-50 getting thwacked, Star? Edit: non-ammo warehouse of some sort? Doesn't seem to be a hanger...?