Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

I've heard a report that Poland has said they won't be shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine, not now and not ever. That could end up being a problem if Russia sends missiles over Polish forces on the Uk/Belo border and oopsies -- I mean, Russia still has by far the biggest tonnage of explosives dropped ON RUSSIA during this war, by accident! You couldn't really blame them for being more incompetent the farther away from home they get. 

But maybe I'm misremembering, and Poland wasn't planning to send troops to help take over border patrols at Belorus? Or maybe they've changed their mind with Luka's announcement and decided to declare "Misja Zakończona Sukcesem"? (Which to be fair would be a real Yang-Wen Lee strategic move from Legend of the Galactic Heroes, accomplish your mission without doing much of anything.)

[Gusington]

Ukrainian linguistics professor shot and killed in Lviv:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp387p1zrgpo

[FarAway Sooner]

Interesting article from the BBC about how drones seem to be serving more and more as "the poor man's artillery" for both sides.  Also some pretty eerie commentary on the way both sides are largely hunkering down as this bloody stalemate takes a turn for more personalized killing at arm's length.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cne4vl9gy2wo

[FarAway Sooner]

Another interesting article that talks about the various stages of the air war in and around Ukraine.  It's the first piece I've run across that tries to integrate drones into the continuum of air-based weapons over the entire history of the Ukraine conflict.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/air-superiority-and-russias-war-on-ukraine/

I am curious to know if/how NATO countries are adjusting to the high-volume/low-unit-cost nature of drone warfare.  Given the way that most peacetime military institutions respond, I suspect that their thinking has been limited, slow, and heavily encumbered by existing procurement policies and the personal relationships within the military-industrial triangle.

By extending the effective range of tactical artillery to 10-20 miles behind enemy lines, and by extending the range of theater-level artillery (e.g., rockets and larger drones) to 50-100 miles behind enemy lines, drones have all but revolutionized the nature of warfare. 

Drones have effectively become a form of asymmetrical air power, with serious implications for whichever side's strategy relied on air superiority to win land battles quickly and convincingly.

[ArizonaTank]

Looks like the F-16s are finally in Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/04/europe/ukraine-f16s-zelensky-arrival-intl/index.html

[Pete Dero]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nggvg1yggo
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/03/europe/ukraine-claims-russian-submarine-sunk-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Ukraine says it sank Russian submarine in Crimea.

More than 20 Russian naval vessels have now been disabled or destroyed, a third of the entire fleet. Though Ukraine has virtually no navy of its own, technological innovation, audacity and Russian incompetence have given it the upper hand in much of the Black Sea.

[Crossroads]

Looks like the F-16s are finally in Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/04/europe/ukraine-f16s-zelensky-arrival-intl/index.html

Looks like (part of?) an official unveiling video from the event in the CNN photographs:

https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1820104135506596211

From what I've read one perhaps less sexy area where they'd might make an actual difference is that with their top-down radar, they should be quite efficient at hunting incoming drones, particularly the larger long distance recon drones.

Edit another one:

https://x.com/KpsZSU/status/1820112201459417088

Edit third one! Star, where are you?

https://x.com/MartinNevermind/status/1820134795319607737

[JudgeDredd]

Noice.

Hopefully they can help keep the bad guys further in their own country.

[JasonPratt]

Edit: a neuron died in my head apparently, because every time I meant to type Kharkiv, I kept typing "Kursk" again. 

Looks like the Free Russian Brigade or whatever they're calling themselves (visual sign a point-up hollow triangle), has crossed into Russian territory (actual territory not captured territory) at the Kursk front (actually creating a Kursk front!), kicking ass and taking prisoners.

This has only been going on for a day (or maybe close to two by now), so we'll have to wait and see what the actual Russian response to this will be. To say the least, it is not a good sign for Russia's drive on Kharkiv, that the ex-pats are able to pull this off, even if they only get to one town just down the road.

In other news, Russia's drive on Karkiv stalled out... wait, has it really be a few months ago?! I remember wondering if Russia had gotten suckered (or sucked) into parceling out the units for the actual hit they were building up in the backfield (supposedly) to take advantage of the aggressive probe they were apparently making at the time to fix a frontal zone in place. It sure looked at the time like Russia was dribbling away its buildup pressure in the backfield, just to keep hard pressure on Ukraine (at the expense of thinning out the rest of the front line a lot), but I wasn't sure if Russia might not still be getting ready to drop the hammer after all.

If this doesn't goad Russia into acting promptly with whatever they've been preparing to punch through to Kharkiv with, then maybe Belorus ought to think about getting out of the war while... ....oh, wait, that happened already some weeks ago, didn't it? In effect.

We'll see pretty soon if White Russia knew some things more clearly than was evident at the time. Here's hoping!

[JudgeDredd]

[Con]

A headline that could come from this date August 7th 1943

German Panzers are attacking in Kursk

https://x.com/Bielitzling/status/1821376417612935643

[Crossroads]

General Mick Ryan's thoughts on the battle of Kursk. It is the third day, already, but still we don't know what this is all about. 

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-kursk-2024

[JasonPratt]

Wagner recalled to defend Kursk! 

Now Kursk can bask in the occupation of their city by true Russian Russians! 

In a disassociated way, I kind of look forward to seeing how much ordnance Russia drops on Kursk by accident. Or on purpose. (Sucks for the civilians admittedly, not looking forward to those casualties, sigh.)

[Sir Slash]

At last, a Russian city we can pronounce. And the spelling hasn't been changed since 1945.

[FarAway Sooner]

I admire your ability to find the silver lining in any military development, SirSlash!

I too am intrigued by this operation.  I'm not sure if it's a PR stunt, or if it has practical military value at the operational level.  I assume that Kursk is a major logistics hub for the Russians, but I can't believe that the Ukrainians really have the spare military assets available to take that.

Perhaps the goal is simply to get close enough to shell the rail yards and other transportation infrastructure out of existence and then retreat?  That would have PR and military value, without imposing the drain on manpower that General Ryan discusses in his article.

I don't have any sense for how long it takes the Russians to repair damaged rail infrastructure, but I have to assume they've had lots of practice at it by now.  Maybe they just want the Russians to have to lay down prodigious minefields in their own territory and then spend the next twenty years cleaning that up?