Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

No relation to the prior quote, but Ukraine has started its big counterattack to push the Rus away from the border front north of Kharkiv.

[JasonPratt]

As for the question of global conflict: France is still a Great Power I think, and they have definitely said they're sending forces into Ukraine now (presumably to guard the line at Belorus). Once/if Russia hits French forces, or vice versa, there will technically be a 'global' conflict.

More importantly (if possible), if Russia wins in Ukraine, they need to take Romania and something else NATOy nearby, which Putin has not been hiding the ball about, and once Russia starts this then we're in much much much worse trouble because Russia will be in much worse trouble after NATO starts hammering them, and that's a nuke situation. That's why, in the medium-run, we're trying to hold the line at Ukraine -- it's a big difference between France and Russia doing some sniping at each other in Ukraine, and Russia trying to take NATO in the teeth.

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  For myself, I'm leaning towards a "2" on your 1 to 5 scale.  But I suspect that's what most people thought about the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, too...

While I think NATO might run out of silver bullets before Russia runs out of men to throw in front of them, I suspect that NATO will have plenty of normal bullets left in the chamber if hostilities break out. 

The big challenge, as alluded to above, is that if the result of losing the war in Ukraine is regime change in Russia, sociopaths like Putin and his inner circle might be willing to jeopardize the future of human civilization to preserve themselves.  That's when it would get dicey.  Trying to understand Russian intentions or risk-calculations these last two or three years has been an exercise in futility.

[JudgeDredd]

I don't think Russia will take any other eastern European countries...he won't fuck with NATO is my bet.

Ryan McBeth done a video on the possibility of a Nuclear War. It's highly unlikely - at least on a global scale, though tactical nukes could be used. As he mentioned - dictators really just want power and money - and you're not going to have either if you nuke the world. Or nothing worth lording it over. Fine, if you want to start using bottle caps as currency.

Having said that

That's depressing.

NATO (or at least Europe) needs to get the fuck in there.

[JudgeDredd]

Just noticed...where is GDS?

[Jarhead0331]

Yeah.  For myself, I'm leaning towards a "2" on your 1 to 5 scale... 

I agree with this. Thankfully, at present, I think the chance that this escalates into a global war is relatively low. In fact, I think it is lower presently, then it was during earlier phases of the war. My assessment is based mostly on the facts that the tactical and strategic situation for Russia has stabilized and the expectation of seeing an unconditional Ukrainian victory as the only outcome among most NATO states seems to be waning some. Reasonable minds can differ over whether this is a good thing, but for better or for worse, I think it has eased tension, and with it, the possibility of global war.

[JasonPratt]

Oh, yeah, where is Star? 

[FarAway Sooner]

Retired US Army General Mark Hertling has some choice words in response to the CNN piece on the M-1's struggles in Ukraine.  His 60-second response is somewhat predictable for a retired US tanker, but I thought it worth sharing here.

I'd love to hear a more nuanced explanation from him about what's going on, but like most ex-military types, he seldom settles for nuanced explanations when he can go with a direct explanation instead!

US General Responds

[Jarhead0331]

Retired US Army General Mark Hertling has some choice words in response to the CNN piece on the M-1's struggles in Ukraine.  His 60-second response is somewhat predictable for a retired US tanker, but I thought it worth sharing here.

I'd love to hear a more nuanced explanation from him about what's going on, but like most ex-military types, he seldom settles for nuanced explanations when he can go with a direct explanation instead!

US General Responds

Exactly what I suspected. 

[JasonPratt]

Welp, the gloves have come off around Belgorod, and the Russians are finding out what happens when Ukraine is allowed to punch back! The short version is that Russia is about to suffer massive routs and losses from logistical shortfalls once (if) the Ukraine counter-offensive kicks into gear.

This may or may not be part of the reason (France stationing in Russia by the end of the year may be another) that Belarus has started crowing about how Russia has thrown away the nuclear non-proliferation treaty -- the first nation ever to do so since the doctrine was agreed upon in the early Cold War -- and given a non-nuclear power both nuclear weapons (short range) and independent agency to shoot them wherever.

(Pausing for a moment to pray the usual: "Jesus Christ, Russia, amen.")

I don't know the state of verification on this; yesterday there was some suspicion that this was purely a propaganda bluff (lie) by Belarus, since it seems weird for Putin to give those weapons and a free launch hand to a government routinely bullied by Russia. But anyway.

On a more darkly amusing note, here's "Anna From Ukraine" talking about the one country brave enough to have bombed Russia from the beginning of the war, even to have dropped large ordnance into Belgorod 100 times in the last 100 days!

[FarAway Sooner]

Jason, I admire your optimism.  What, exactly, prevented Ukraine from punching back previously?  Shortages of artillery ammunition?

My own sense of the conflict is that casualty totals seem to mean little more to the Russians than they did to the North Vietnamese when Robert McNamara would publish the "body count" on a daily basis.  Russian society in its current form might have a breaking point, but it seems to be nowhere near that point yet.

[JasonPratt]

Ukraine was already punching back in a limited counterattack, but the big difference came in being given permission to hit targets on Russian soil, i.e. Belgorod itself (and its environs), with Western supplied weapons. (American per se, if I recall correctly. I don't know if other NATO/EU members gave permission.)

This is already starting to pay dividends against Russian battlefield cohesion. As noted, I'm not sure when the main Russian attack in this sector was going to start, or if they even still had troops in reserve to start such an attack (after ramping up their 'probing' to overcome stiffening Ukrainian defense), but if so then this kicks them in the balls while they're winding up to throw (so to speak). The collected troops may need to be redistributed back along the frontier just to save them from a general rout. (Russia stripped a lot of its other front areas down to the bone to get this going, at least apparently: there was some discussion previously about whether that was a feint, especially once the Russian attack in this sector started as a probing action. Theoretically that could still be true; I guess we'll see if Russia suddenly throws a big surprise attack at the eastern or southeastern front while Ukrainian troops have been redeployed to defend and counterattack up north of Kharkiv.)

I don't see this doing much more than restoring the current stalemate by nerfing any Russian attack actually planned to come through the 'punkt' that Russia established here. But it's still a big victory in the making for the Uks; and it's a major turning point in escalation of the war. As I noted earlier, this may be one of the reasons why Belarus started announcing that IT HAS RUSSIAN NUKES NOW AND PERMISSION TO SHOOT THEM AT WILL ANYWHERE THEY CARE TO, SO DARE TO FEAR US NOW BWAAAGHHH! 

[JasonPratt]

Re body count: even in Vietnam, the body count eventually worked enough for the West (US and allies) to withdraw leaving ARVN to its own defense, our primary mission being to beat the VC (along with any NVA support for the VC).

Putin still has bodies to throw, but he doesn't have Stalin's organized backfield to throw from or to support the throws, and what backfield he does have is being whittled down logistically by the Ukrainian deep strikes. Of course they could all be armed with 2x4s and told to eat whatever and whomever they can find on Ukrainian soil, if the Uks no longer have enough men and material to resist it. China is REAAAAAALLLY going hard to support Russian infrastructure and war supplies, with the Norks helping up to their capabilities. A lot of that is arty, since the Russians drew down their own stocks already; to be fair, the Orks are still making ludicrous amounts of shells, too, but not without lots of help from China in factory equipment and heavy machinery for Russia to mine material for their shells.

I saw the other day that a big logistic constraint coming up on all sides will be... rats, can't think of the tech term, it's the ballistic wadding used in arty shells. Some videos show destitute Ork troops burning it for fuel, but we're all suffering from an oncoming hard shortage of it as new shells are made. Most of the world's supply comes from China. Who by the way are kind of also still supplying Ukraine, including on shells (though since the new northern attack begun the Ukrainian shells from China have been cough delayed.)

[ArizonaTank]

It's going to be very hard to judge when or if, Ukraine and/or Russia get to a national breaking point. My guess is that both of them are pretty far from that.

However, taking a que from WWI, before that, we might start to see military discipline break down; mutinies, mass surrenders and inability to conduct offensives would be some of the first symptoms. And even those may not bring a side to the bargaining table.

No sign of any of those yet. 

[JudgeDredd]

...I don't know if other NATO/EU members gave permission...

Britain gave permission over a month ago as I recall. As did France.