Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JudgeDredd]

Good video on what NATO does a damn sight better than the Orks

[undercovergeek]

Is it just me or is Russia been allowed to make the ROE?

They can borrow Chinese tech, NK artillery, Iranian drones but Ukraine isn't allowed to fire on them with someone else's stuff - piss take

[nelmsm]

Is it just me or is Russia been allowed to make the ROE?

They can borrow Chinese tech, NK artillery, Iranian drones but Ukraine isn't allowed to fire on them with someone else's stuff - piss take

Yeah, I don't think the Soviets were upset about arming the North Vietnamese and letting them use those weapons outside of their country.

[JudgeDredd]

Is it just me or is Russia been allowed to make the ROE?

They can borrow Chinese tech, NK artillery, Iranian drones but Ukraine isn't allowed to fire on them with someone else's stuff - piss take

No. It's not just you. They think they can.

[ArizonaTank]

...I don't know if other NATO/EU members gave permission...

Britain gave permission over a month ago as I recall. As did France.

Yes they did. The UK has taken the lead quite a few times in NATO response to this war; MBTs, and giving Ukraine free reign with Storm Shadow missiles come immediately to mind.

[Jarhead0331]

Nice update.

[FarAway Sooner]

The UK has led in terms of setting new precedents for NATO, but it's not done much in terms of contributing material.  They simply haven't had much material to send.  But I've applauded their aggressive stances.

The UK and French have both given permission to use longer-range weapons to hit targets in Russia.  I recall reading that there are some qualifications, but none seem to be strictly geographic (hypothetical example:  "You can blow up military targets in Russia, but no targeting elementary schools in St. Petersburg"). 

By contrast, the US has only given the Ukrainians permission to hit targets in Russia near Kharkiv.  It's not the sort of carte blanche geographic release that other powers have given, but it's made a real difference (especially with the recent provision of additional weapons from the US).  The US has also stated that expansion of targeting zones remains an option.

As for the Russians being able to define the ROE, it's amazing how unfair it is to fight a conventional war when one side has nukes and the other doesn't.  I'm not saying that the US Administration is playing all the right cards here, but THAT is clearly their primary concern.

[JudgeDredd]

Yeah - I think America has probably done the most in terms of investment and equipment. Probably more than the whole of the EU, I wouldn't be surprised.

I do wish the EU would get it's finger out and get ahead of the game - allowing Ukraine much more fluidity on the field.

[Crossroads]

Yeah - I think America has probably done the most in terms of investment and equipment. Probably more than the whole of the EU, I wouldn't be surprised.

I do wish the EU would get it's finger out and get ahead of the game - allowing Ukraine much more fluidity on the field.

I am not sure what stats you are reading, and I am not in disagreement in what you are saying.

First, just so if by EU you mean European Union, it is an institution, it does not have military budget or resources, just euros, which it has been giving out. But in military aid stats it is non-existent. That is for the member countries who have the armies and the military resources. Lot of EU money within EU is going on to member countries in aiding them to get their military hw production lines up again, too. 

Europe as a whole paints a better overall picture of the status. But before going there, and secondly, I quite agree there are those who are not carrying their weigh. Denmark with double the military support than France? That is just embarrassing.

President Macron has been all over the place with his talk, and his walk has not been much. Let us see those Mirage fighters, please. (I also assume they got caught their pants down in realising what total modern war requires in resources, despite of their vast experience in being present in many of the troubled areas of Africa in particular. They are losing out there, too.)

But let us hear it for Germany, who gets a lot of bad press, some deserved, but in many cases undeservedly, we can thank lazy journalism I guess. I mean, look at that very first GDP graphics in the link below, further you move to west, the less interested the governments seem to be in this all. 

Here's a set of various stats on aid on Ukraine

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

[JudgeDredd]

No science behind my thoughts - just thoughts.

I guess I was thinking "individually" and not collectively.

But let us hear it for Germany, who gets a lot of bad press, some deserved, but in many cases undeservedly, we can thank lazy journalism I guess. I mean, look at that very first GDP graphics in the link below, further you move to west, the less interested the governments seem to be in this all. 

Yeah - funny, that

[Crossroads]

Yeah - funny, that

It is a mystery.

[FarAway Sooner]

That's a great link you provided, Crossroads, thanks!  It's interesting, because after all the fanfare about the M1s that the US was sending, it turns out we've sent 31 of them.  And the UK sent 14 Challengers.

Meanwhile, other EU countries have sent 84 Leopard 2s (a mix of 2A4 and 2A6s from more than a half-dozen different countries) and another 75 Leopard 1s.  Throw in another 400 T-72s, and you start to realize that there were never going to be enough M1s or Challengers to make much impact, even if the Ukrainians had been able to use modern MBTs the way that NATO hoped they might.

[JasonPratt]

Hm. Looks like Russia has started evacuating more military personnel and their families out of Crimea, out of a concern for lack of air defense. The personnel themselves are assigned to AAA.

That concern would be amplified by plans to thin out Crimea's air defense further by emergency shifting of AAA assets to the Belgorod front.

Oh, and Ork 6th Army HQ got zorched last night so, good job there!

[ArizonaTank]

According to the AP:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Friday to "immediately" order a cease-fire in Ukraine and begin negotiations if Kyiv started withdrawing troops from the four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022 and renounced plans to join NATO."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-vows-truce-if-ukraine-exits-moscow-occupied-areas-and-drops-nato-bid-a-nonstarter-for-kyiv/ar-BB1odPGs?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=8fbf37ab93414123b8abf305e9e15965&ei=9

The beginning of the end?

Putin has mentioned cease-fire before, but always indirectly, this is the first time I've seen such a direct 'offer.'

Or, maybe it's just a head-fake...designed to show his domestic audience that he 'wants peace,' but it's those darned NATO people who keep Ukraine going.

Of course, Kyiv won't accept these terms...it's not even a "white peace," since Putin would get to keep vast amounts of territory taken at the start of the war.

In history, it reminds me of Ludendorff pushing armistice after his spring 1918 offensives failed...Ludendorff's basic terms were that Germany would keep everything it had taken; Belgium and huge pieces of France. The Allies, and particularly the French, were not amused and did not even respond. But it did signal the end in a way, because Germany surrendered six months later.

Still, this may be the start of the "Paris Peace Talks" phase for the War in Ukraine, and while it may still take a couple of years, maybe we are starting to see the end.

[Jarhead0331]

^I certainly hope that talks are encouraged and that Ukraine's determination as to whether to engage in diplomacy is entirely of its own making without any influence, coercion or pressure from outside forces who have no true interest in the people of Ukraine.