Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Tripoli]

18 North Korean troops desert after arrival at front.

Don't know if this is just a blip, or a future trend.

But doesn't look good for Kim. I'm sure Kim will find something in the Ruthless Dictator's Handbook to keep his guys from running. Some possible picks from history are; threatening family members, disciplinary troops in the rear with orders to shoot deserters, and if Kim really wanted to be nostalgic, he could try a return of the old Roman trick of Decimation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korean-troops-deserting-ukraine-frontline-days-after-arrival-report/ar-AA1smcBI?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=0fb68c6b10d647f695aaa5b5f55b6fe2&ei=20

Kim also has  "execute them with the 23mm anti-aircraft gun" option.    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/30/north-korea-reportedly-executes-officials-anti-aircraft-gun-purge

[Sir Slash]

I thought that was just for his ex-girlfriends? 

[Crossroads]

Interesting intel on US warning to Putin before his attack on Ukraine.

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1846390209975382449

Clicksaver:

The conversation between Vladimir Putin and CIA Director William Burns took place in Moscow in the fall of 2021, as detailed by American journalist Bob Woodward in his new book War.

Burns was informed that Putin would speak with him over the phone. Yuri Ushakov, Putin's chief foreign policy adviser, escorted Burns to an office near the Kremlin, then left him alone in the room.

The phone rang, and Burns immediately recognized Putin's voice. Putin began by recalling Burns's time as U.S. ambassador to Moscow 14 years earlier, then seemed to wait for Burns to deliver his message, likely having been briefed by Nikolai Patrushev on the upcoming discussion.

Burns intended to be direct with the Russian president.

"We are alarmed that you are seriously considering a major invasion of Ukraine. That would be a mistake. If you do that, here's what we're going to do," Burns said, detailing the instructions given by President Biden, the intelligence on Russian troop movements, and the serious measures the U.S. was prepared to take in response.

Putin did not interrupt and appeared to listen closely as Burns outlined the consequences.

"We are going to unite the West and impose tough, devastating economic sanctions. Ukraine is a sovereign state, and we will continue to support it. We are also adjusting our military posture in Europe. This is not a threat, but a statement of what we will do in response. You should know that the repercussions will far exceed those you faced in 2014. The United States will ensure that Russia is cut off from SWIFT, isolate you diplomatically, and help Ukraine defend itself."

Putin's response was lengthy and echoed the familiar themes Burns had heard before: Putin's beliefs about Ukraine and his confidence in Russia's ability to exert control. "Ukraine is weak and divided. It's not a real country. Russia's interests demand that we control Ukraine's choices," Putin stated.

The Russian president completely dismissed President Zelensky as a legitimate leader and reiterated his grievances about the Ukrainian government's legitimacy and NATO's potential expansion. He claimed that ethnic Russians in Ukraine faced discrimination and persecution.

Throughout, Putin's tone was neither defensive nor apologetic, and he did not dispute Burns's description of Russia's preparations for conflict.

To Burns, it seemed that Putin genuinely believed his assertions about Ukraine, and that his appetite for risk had grown.

Burns posed a question: "With an army of 180,000 to 190,000, how do you plan to control a country of 44 million people who do not want to be ruled by Russia? How will you manage that?"

Putin did not respond.

As Burns departed Russia, he sent a cable to President Biden from his plane, stating, "I am left with a very strong impression that Putin has already decided to go to war."

[JasonPratt]

Zeihan (and some others) would argue that Putin had no choice demographically or in a way economically: he and his regime had ruined Russia and so needed something to loot to keep the regime going; and demographically if he didn't go now he wouldn't have the manpower to keep going until Ukraine was looted after the war (and Russia's approaches sealed off from that direction, at least on the borders with Poland and Romania).

It isn't an existential crisis for Russia per se, but Putin's regime is an existential crisis for Russia and also (ironically) an existential crisis for Russia's regime.  Thus Putin most likely does genuinely believe this is an existential crisis, maybe even for Russia insofar as he sees his regime as being "Russia".

[bobarossa]

It isn't an existential crisis for Russia per se, but Putin's regime is an existential crisis for Russia and also (ironically) an existential crisis for Russia's regime.  Thus Putin most likely does genuinely believe this is an existential crisis, maybe even for Russia insofar as he sees his regime as being "Russia".

L'etat c'est moi

[Uberhaus]

It isn't an existential crisis for Russia per se, but Putin's regime is an existential crisis for Russia and also (ironically) an existential crisis for Russia's regime.  Thus Putin most likely does genuinely believe this is an existential crisis, maybe even for Russia insofar as he sees his regime as being "Russia".

L'etat c'est moi

Well, that guy gave us ballet at least, what dance moves has Putin busted out?

[Uberhaus]

18 North Korean troops desert after arrival at front.

Don't know if this is just a blip, or a future trend.

But doesn't look good for Kim. I'm sure Kim will find something in the Ruthless Dictator's Handbook to keep his guys from running. Some possible picks from history are; threatening family members, disciplinary troops in the rear with orders to shoot deserters, and if Kim really wanted to be nostalgic, he could try a return of the old Roman trick of Decimation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korean-troops-deserting-ukraine-frontline-days-after-arrival-report/ar-AA1smcBI?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=0fb68c6b10d647f695aaa5b5f55b6fe2&ei=20

Only 2982 more to go.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5vwxgyx3o  I was worried that they would send hordes of North Koreans, but if the desertions continue, it will bode well for Ukraine, in that no more would be sent.

ISW is saying that "Sources in Ukraine's military and intelligence services told Ukrainian outlets RBC Ukraine and Suspilne that the Russian military is currently training over 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia's Far East and are preparing to transfer some of them to border areas near Ukraine in order to free up Russian military personnel for rotations."  However, the BBC article above states that "A military source in Russia's Far East confirmed to BBC Russian that "a number of North Koreans have arrived" and were stationed in one of the military bases near Ussuriysk, to the north of Vladivostok. But the source refused to give a precise number, other than that they were "absolutely nowhere near 3,000"."

[Uberhaus]

Oh, and Oz is sending 49 M-1A1s to Ukraine, now that they are transitioning to M-1A2s.  https://www.9news.com.au/world/australia-ukraine-tank-donation-of-m1a1-abrams-fleet-to-boost-war-effort-against-russia/3ce52fe4-36b8-4b05-819f-111aecdca3c2

[ArizonaTank]

The war is widening as North Korean involvement increases.

This brings the possibility of more direct support by South Korea for Ukraine. There are reports of South Korean "volunteers" readying to go to Ukraine. Also reports of former North Korean military members, who have escaped the North and now are preparing to become "advisors," to help Ukraine better deal with this new threat.

Of course, there are also reports of poor North Korean capability coming from Russian military sources...but this is probably just noise. North Koreans haven't fought in major ground combat for 70 years. It's going to take them some time to learn...and that is probably a major reason why they are there...to learn.

In the bigger scheme...as part of the bargain, I just hope Putin is not stupid enough to help the North Koreans further develop their nuclear delivery capabilities. That would not end well for anyone.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korea-and-russia-send-political-shockwaves-with-ukraine-war-moves/ar-AA1t8dWN?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=4ec3c9d0864b44fab11dd1526432a969&ei=40

[JudgeDredd]

It's going to take them some time to learn...and that is probably a major reason why they are there...to learn.

That's only going to be of benefit to NK if they get the ****ers back.

[JasonPratt]

{in Korean} "Dear diary, today I learned not to mess with Ukraine or anyone supported by the West. So did my other squadmates, but the lesson happens to be preventing them from benefitting in any way from learning it. sigh. On the other hand, Ukraine Donbass is not infested with robot locusts, so there's that."

[FarAway Sooner]

The whole "We'll put machine gunners in reserve positions to make sure that you don't retreat" option worked effectively for Stalin in WW II.  Of course, at the time, his troops weren't trying to regreat forward to surrender to the enemy.

I suspect that the whole "My family will be asked to dig ditches with their bare hands for the rest of their lives" threat is also mitigated by the fact that the desserters are trying to disappear in the same direction.  So long as the Ukrainians put them into witness protection rather than parade them down the streets of Kyiv, it will be much easier for Kim Jong Un's government to pretend as though they died gloriously in combat rather than admit that they desserted.

Either way, the choices confronting the North Korean soldiers who might get close to the front lines are even worse than those faced by the guys in the Wagner Brigade and the other penal units.  (please note that those are "penal units" units and not the "penile units" that some of you guys talk about on the Grogheads' sub-forum that's invisible to the rest of us)

[Con]

Either way, the choices confronting the North Korean soldiers who might get close to the front lines are even worse than those faced by the guys in the Wagner Brigade and the other penal units.  (please note that those are "penal units" units and not the "penile units" that some of you guys talk about on the Grogheads' sub-forum that's invisible to the rest of us)

I think thats shifted to perusing all the ANALists of this conflict

[JasonPratt]

No, I'm pretty sure those are dongle units.

...after making that joke, I suddenly had a horrified cringe that the Norks might really be fed to the Russians as front-line dongle units, in lieu of other options...

[Crossroads]

I've enjoyed reading Lawrence Freedman's column, the one author I keep returning to when trying to form an opinion on the latest status quo regarding the invasion of Ukraine.

Well, "enjoyed", he does not mince his words which is why I like him.

Here's his latest article, a speech he did. Recommended reading (long read, too):

Ukraine: What's Next?

This one, in particular. We don't do politics here, but maybe we dabble just enough in geopolitics to comment on those saying we are at a "1938" crossroads, with "1939" lurking. Quite an analogy.

2008 should have been the wake-up call, and it was—sort of. But then it wasn't. Then came 2014, which really should have set off alarm bells. Some nations took it seriously, stocking up on war material (Poland, Finland, I'm looking at you). Yet for Europe as a whole—especially Central and Western Europe—2014 was another "meh."

The stakes are extraordinarily high for Europe. While I would not argue that Russia's next step after defeating Ukraine would be to move immediately against the Baltic states, this would usher in a period of intense instability in Europe and recriminations among the allies.

Given the combined strength of European countries, leaving aside the US, it would represent a failure of political will and judgment.

(emphasis mine)

Every time Putin probes with his bayonet, he meets mush. Mush, mush, mush. And the few times there's been some steel, he just takes a tea break (the non-polonium variety) and returns to find it's all mush again.

We now see Chancellor Scholz considering "Finlandization" for Ukraine, which —ask any Finn— is a phenomenally bad idea.

https://x.com/vonderburchard/status/1853364173658309080

Ukraine was neutral when Putin attacked, and he attacked because Ukraine was neutral, and alone. One country at a time. It's been shocking to witness the reluctance to arm Ukraine fully, too, and when support finally comes, it arrives with all sorts of handicaps.

Negotiating with Russia from a position of weakness has always been a mistake. Yet history lessons seem either unlearned or ignored. 1938—the year of appeasement. 2022-2024—the years of fear of escalation. Synonymous.

Now North Korea is involved in the war against Europe, with a response so muted it makes crickets sound like Black Sabbath in their heyday.

That said, it can't be all positive for Russia either. If their Welfare Fund still holds billions in assets, why are inflation and interest rates above 20%? The obvious explanation is they've started printing money, which suggests the assets they claim are neither liquid nor accessible.

As for politics, that we don't do here, today is Election Day in the US. For Europe, it should be a distant curiosity, if we had acted responsibly for our own security. But, as they say, we have Chamberlains, no Churchills. And have had that for quite a while.

This turned out rather pessimistic, though I'm not entirely so. Rather, that Schultz news piece ... 

We're, and continue it seems, living in interesting times