Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Windigo]

Coming soon for CS: Vietnam II -- Korean proxy war in the Ukraine! A wildly science-fiction hypothetical campaign using gear from the early 70s!     

Not included: robot locusts.

Robot locusts    AH-1 Snake platoon data, new graphics and weapons and movement sounds, I can do that.

Dont ignore close quarters in trench warfare mechanics. I can see these guys going hard against each other.

[JasonPratt]

"Trench Quan Do" -- coming soon to international release. Get your Blu-ray from Malaysia today!

[JasonPratt]

In more serious newsWAIT I'M NOT JOKING!

Ahem.

Reported through the Epoch Times a few minutes ago:

"A just peace is critical for us, so that we do not feel we have lost the best only to have injustice forced upon us," Zelenskyy told a Ukrainian news outlet on Friday, according to a translation. "The war will end, but there is no set date."

(There's a link to the newsite but it's in Ukrainian of course. I can provide it on request.)

"Of course, with the policy of this team, who will now govern the White House, the war will be over sooner. This is their approach, their pledge to their society, and it is really essential to them."

Zelenskyy said that his speculation is based on conversations that he has had with Trump.

On whether Trump will push for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is "an independent country" in which "the approach of 'sit down and listen' does not work."

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Friday that Ukraine is fighting to liberate all territory captured by Russia in the past decade such as the Donbas territories and Crimea.

"Territorial integrity is part of our values," the Ukrainian minister told a joint press conference with his Norwegian counterpart in Oslo.

When asked about reports that Ukraine is shifting its focus in the war, Umerov said the reports are false and alleged they're part of Russian propaganda efforts.

"Our priority is still to protect people, protect the nation, to liberate people from almost 10 years of temporary occupation, so Crimea and Donbas [are] part of Ukraine," he said.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the first time since December 2022 on Friday, according to a call detailed by state-run Russian outlet TASS. A German government spokesperson said Scholz urged Putin to begin talks with Kyiv that would open the way for a "just and lasting peace."
In a one-hour phone conversation, Scholz demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and reaffirmed Germany's continued support for Ukraine, the German spokesman said.

In a statement provided by TASS about the call, the Kremlin said Putin "noted that the Russian side has never refused and remains open to the resumption of the negotiations that were interrupted by the Kiev regime."
"Russia's proposals are well known and outlined, in particular, in a June speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry," it said.

Berlin, which had previously relied on Russian gas before the war erupted in February 2022, is a major Ukrainian financial backer and its largest provider of weapons after the United States, whose future support for Kyiv appears uncertain following Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election this month.

Germany was heavily reliant on Russian gas before the war, but direct shipments ceased when the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea were blown up in 2022. U.S. officials have not announced who carried out the pipeline bombing.

Since the war began, Germany and other European Union countries have imposed successive waves of sanctions on Russia and taken steps to wean themselves off their dependence on Russian oil and gas.

In the meantime, outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week that the United States intends to shore up support for Ukraine in the final two months of the Biden administration and before Trump officially takes office.

Washington will "continue to shore up everything we're doing for Ukraine to make sure that it can effectively defend itself against this Russian aggression," Blinken told reporters at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

During an interview over the weekend, national security adviser Jake Sullivan offered a similar pledge for U.S. aid to Kyiv.

President Joe Biden, he told CBS News, "will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe."

"If we walk away from Ukraine in Europe, the question about America's commitment to our allies in Asia will grow," he said.

I don't think Trump (the incoming administration) is going to just "walk away from Ukraine". But certainly there's a strong belief among Republican and Independent voters that the US should let Ukraine (or Europe more generally) sink or swim on its own merits. I'm not sure how that translates into the policy intentions of their elected representatives.

[JasonPratt]

Aw, yeah, you know I know what time it is!

It's ATACM TIME!

(President Biden just authorized the release of Ukrainian ATACM for mainland Russia targets, and that should start tonight.)

This may be blowback from Russia launching its own largest missile attack of the war so far against Ukraine, not only against civilian but energy targets. Business Basics digests the news:

[undercovergeek]

Hoping for some tit for tat 'you blow one of ours up, we blow one of yours up' action now to put pressure on the public

[JudgeDredd]

At last 

[Sir Slash]

As reported on FOX this morning, the Biden Administration is only allowing for deeper strikes in the Kursk Region only. This may help there, but I don't really see how it would prove decisive for the larger war.

[Jarhead0331]

This seems totally political to me. Why wait until after the Biden/Harris Administration lost the election?

On the one hand, it would seem to be a CYA move in case things go to $hit under Trump. This way, they can shift blame. While on the other hand, if the war ends favorably under Trump, they can also try to take credit for it.

[Crossroads]

According to WaPo, this is a countermeasure for Nork troops entering the fray. If so, there was a Strongly Worded Letter earlier about Norks, so not sure at all this was necessary. /s

That said, like providing ATACMS the first time, iirc, this was announced beforehand. So there must be the intention for providing Russia with time to withdraw their key assets further away from front as well  

[FarAway Sooner]

I'm glad to hear this policy shift around the ATACMs, but i'm also skeptical of the timing.  While I was generally impressed with the Biden Administration's handling of this crisis in the first six months after it erupted, since then it's been a disappointing series of "Too little, too late  /  Rinse  / Repeat".

Without diving deeply into the politics, this strikes me as a characteristic of the Biden administration that apparently vexed more voters than was realized prior to the recent election:  plodding and ultimately low-impact responses to numerous dynamic situations.  I say that as a guy who voted for him in 2020.

I'm not eager to see Russian aggression rewarded in Ukraine, and I'm watching carefully to see when/how the US backpedals in our support.  I'd love to see our European partners in NATO pick up a larger share of the tab for defending their own borders from the expansionist threat on their doorstep, but that's been the case for 20+ years and all we've really seen from them (even in recent years) is modest course corrections. 

I'd also love to see governments hold defense contractors more accountable for excessive cost while they hold themselves more accountable for poor procurement practices that sometimes border on corruption.    But that's probably a topic that deserves a thread of its own...

[JudgeDredd]

The only thing I care about the timing is it's too late to make much of an impact.

Just like all the western kit getting there too late to let the Uks perform a half decent attack...defences were already in place by the time western kit turned up.

Like getting western kit, though...I'm glad it's happened at least.

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah, expectations around "kit arriving in theater" and "kit being used properly by front-line combatants" in Western media proved wildly optimistic.  What's the old Napoleon adage?  "Amateurs talk tactics and strategy.  Professionals talk logistics."

Except I'm sure he said it in French.   

[Pete Dero]

First Atacms launched in to Russia today.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0mzjm7knw7o


Today is the 1000th day of the war  .

[Windigo]

I thought that the russkies couldn't shoot down ATACMS. They are claiming intercept of 5 out of 6. Seems a tad high.

[JasonPratt]

"As they landed on our Nork allies, our shells and countermissiles struck them, ending their threat." -- Putler, probably.