Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JudgeDredd]

UN hasn't played a role most likely because both the Russian Federation and China are members of the security Council with veto power.

  - I forgot about that wee nugget.

[JudgeDredd]

Just to dovetail off of Jarhead's comment: Not only would the UN require the approval to deploy peacekeepers, but UN peacekeepers would be pretty worthless in the Ukraine situation.  If, as is hypothesized, that Russia doesn't want a peace, then having UN peacekeepers would be worse than having none at all.  UN peacekeepers are only of use when both sides want a peace.  As an aside, I was a UNMO with UNTAC in 1993.  That was considered a successful mission.  But its success was completely dependent on all the factions wanting peace, combined with throwing huge amounts of money/aid at the country and the various factions.  IMHO, the UN is completely unable to act in a peacekeeping role in Ukraine.  Whle the European militaries could, in theory, act as peacekeepers, there is no way they would be seen as neutral by Russia or by significant elements of the civil population in the Donbass.

Again, I was going on the basis that Trump did organise some deal. I never thought the UN would be in there whilst it was on fire - or even smouldering.

It was Ryan McBeth who was suggesting Russia won't want peace.

I'm still very sceptical.

[Uberhaus]

You served in Cyprus, didn't you JD? 
The UK has supported the peacekeeping along the Greenline since its beginning.

A peacekeeping force would be wonderful for whatever border Ukraine gets but it will more likely end up looking like a much longer Korean DMZ (150 miles).

Hopefully, the negotiators of the peace will think of the loss of the rule of law and what it means for worldwide stability.
Also,of the war crimes committed like in Bucha, the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, execution of POWs, the barbarities reported firsthand by a forum member. The return of prisoners, as well as the ability of civilians, including guerillas to leave lost territory will need to be negotiated.

Whether or not Putin will negotiate in bad faith, disclosing that Ukraine will not join NATO, or may, "whatever they can negotiate, but probably not", weakens any hopes for Ukraine getting a modicum of justice.

To be trite, I'm as hopeful for peace in our time as the last time.

[JudgeDredd]

Yes I did. I was stationed in the Green Line at Nicosia International Airport for 6 months.

[Crossroads]

Again, I was going on the basis that Trump did organise some deal. I never thought the UN would be in there whilst it was on fire - or even smouldering.

It was Ryan McBeth who was suggesting Russia won't want peace.

I'm still very sceptical.

That was a good two-minute summary by Ryan McBeth. It was good to see the comments from vice president Vance today.

Based on the previous two days, Russia was only to become even more emboldened, and as in cue the repeat demands from January '21 basically - and literally - demanding "we want Soviet Union back".

Maybe it indeed is as Jar saw it, Trump putting everything on the table, and then making it clear there is hell to pay unless a deal is made. Russia certainly did not read it like that. It is good to see it is being spelled out for them.

[Sir Slash]

I think there's a case to be made for Putin wanting an end to this war. The Russian economy is suffering badly and maybe pushed well along to total collapse if the new administration hits them hard with new, serous sanctions and enforces them. Also the longer this war continues, the more Russia becomes a puppet of China. I think many of Putin's supporters see the Ukrainians as wayward brothers as opposed a historical rival and threat China.

And don't forget that at some point, Putin has to give the Russian people a, 'Win' here. He can't just keep telling his long suffering people that this, 'Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust' advance is what they are dying for and will have to continue to for another year or year and a half. How long did it take for the Russian Mothers to begin to rebel against the Soviet war in Afghanistan? Five years or 10 maybe? Putin lived this and probably continues to live it in fear of the same war that they won all the battles but could not win the war.

[FarAway Sooner]

The Soviets left Afghanistan because Gorbachev wanted to and not because so many Soviet mothers were crying.  The Soviets averaged about 1,500 deaths per year during that 10-year long war.  Alas, Putin is not Gorbachev and the Russian people have made it clear that they prefer the former now.

I think that any peace treaty that does not include VERY reliable security guarantees for Ukraine will only result in a pause long enough for Russia to reorganize, recover, and rearm.  Putin has no respect for treaty commitments nor law.

Short of inclusion in NATO and the protection of Article 5, I don't know what strategy offers a reliable long-term security guarantee for Ukraine.  I do agree that the European powers haven't carried their fair share of NATO commitments and it's extremely unlikely that they will do so in Ukraine even if the US vacates the area.

I have no idea what an agreeable peace treaty might look like in the current conflict.  That is partly because I think that Putin and his cronies have no interest in peace.

[JudgeDredd]

Absolutely no interest whatsoever. His fingers have always been in loads of unstable pies around the world.

A viable option for Ukraine's guaranteed peace would be no NATO option for Ukraine - BUT European troops protecting it with them having NATO assurances. Which is a technical out for Putin as Ukraine would be part of NATO.

Regardless - I hope this is the wake up call Europe needs to know that friendships in the past are exactly that - in the past. I'm not saying the US is "unfriendly" now - I just mean stop banging on about your "special relationship" and look at the cards in front of you.

Europe needs to up it's game and realise there's a very good chance they could lock horns, alone, with Russia. If they don't do it - the signs are already written and planted on the ground for Russia to crack on through into the eastern block again.

It looks like Europe with have to, at the very least, double their efforts
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

[Crossroads]

The Soviets left Afghanistan because Gorbachev wanted to and not because so many Soviet mothers were crying.  The Soviets averaged about 1,500 deaths per year during that 10-year long war.  Alas, Putin is not Gorbachev and the Russian people have made it clear that they prefer the former now.

I think that any peace treaty that does not include VERY reliable security guarantees for Ukraine will only result in a pause long enough for Russia to reorganize, recover, and rearm.  Putin has no respect for treaty commitments nor law.

Short of inclusion in NATO and the protection of Article 5, I don't know what strategy offers a reliable long-term security guarantee for Ukraine.  I do agree that the European powers haven't carried their fair share of NATO commitments and it's extremely unlikely that they will do so in Ukraine even if the US vacates the area.

I have no idea what an agreeable peace treaty might look like in the current conflict.  That is partly because I think that Putin and his cronies have no interest in peace.

There's been some talk about "Israel of Ukraine" model, where arming Ukraine to teeth would help in keeping the fragile peace. I doubt that, unless taken literally, and Ukraine would build their own nuclear capbaility.

Also some talk about similarities to North and South Korea ceasefire and how that is working out. I don't believe that would be a good comparison either, as I don't see how Putin would allow Ukraine any chances to recover and build their economy.

[JudgeDredd]

Love this....

"Mommy and daddy are going to leave you alone for a little while"

[Sir Slash]

Love that video. Hard to believe that Japan is ahead of almost all of Europe in providing aid to Ukraine. 

[JudgeDredd]

Personally I think % of GDP gives a better view because its relative to each country's economy

There you can see all the old Iron Curtain countries are up there because they are very aware of the threat they face.

[Crossroads]

Comparing individual nations, the US alone represents some 50% of NATO GDP, and looking at Wiki, the US GDP is some 30 trillion USD, China 20, and then a long gap, with Germany at 5 and then Japan and India around the 4 trillion mark.

Comparing GPD per nation levels, Poland currently spends more on military than the US. Was there a second MATO member doing that as well? I can't recall the chart I saw.

I guess if and when Russia is never as strong, or weak, as it looks, same can be said about Europe as well. Make a comparison to say early eighties, and compare the militaries then and now. Eastern flank is comparing favourable, center and western not so. What Europe does not really have are nukes to counter the constant nuclear sabre rattling Putin does, often.

All that said, I am not at all against the tough love Europe is currently getting for its military preparedness. Time to make that zeitenwende happen.

[JudgeDredd]

I was referring to the chart on donations to Ukraine.

Europe has long not met it's basic obligation to NATO and that isn't on at all - all you're doing is asking other countries (and particularly the US) to have your back whilst you spend your money on other things. Not on at all..

So as for Europe getting it's shit together - I'm all for that. The language being used is - shit, but it's got Europe sitting up straight in class - and that's a good thing.

The US has long told Europe to increase NATO contributions and they've ignored those requests. So I'm not totally down on the current US administration dishing out a little spanking.

[Crossroads]

I am all for a little spanking to naughty ones as well.

To state the obvious, Europe is not a nation, it is a continent.  And while many European nations without a shread of a doubt took the peace dividends too far, now most of the nations are attributing towards the agreed 2% spending of GDP on military.

However, that is not nearly enough, if one's military has been neglected for such a long time. There is agreement towards raising the spending requirement. There is acknowledgement the US has for quite some time been emphasing the Pacific region. Not enough has been done, for certain. Trump's put a Fast Forward on things, let us see how it plays.

I was just reading a WSJ article on the very topic with my morning cuppa. Quite well written, and the video there interviewing general Keane is well worth a watch for its seven minutes duration.

The Trump Shock Comes to Europe (WSJ gift article)

I am not sure the videos are included with the gift link? If not, he emphasized that when Trump said "Putin wants peace" that means he's willing to come to table to check the cards everyone's holding. He's not interested in peace, and at best, or "best", he's willing to back down a bit, see until the end of Trump's four years, stock up hard on military in the meanwhile, with aid of China and North Korea, to have another go.

He's not given up on his own strategic goals at all. And he can't, his reputation, presidency, and possibly own life, depends on it.