Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Pete Dero]

I saw this today from the ex defence minister of the UK. Interesting.

That is really very low, using the facts in a discussion  .

[Sir Slash]

Apparently Sir Ben has forgotten, or ignored, that the Sec. of State Marco Rubio has said repeatedly that this first rounds of talks are only about discerning if Putin is really serious about a peace deal nothing else. They appear to have gone very well so far despite everyone chirping in the background about not being included. Rubio has also said repeatedly that any Peace Deal would include consultations with our friends and allies, Ukraine, NATO, & the EU. And he has said, again repeatedly, that any Peace Deal would have to include Security Guarantees for Ukraine. So why all the bed-wetting when nobody really knows what's being discussed or not discussed?

He is absolutely right that it is now time for Europe to either get it's act together, work together, and solve this, their problem, or forever be seen as a collection of minor states interested only in squabbling amongst themselves.

[JudgeDredd]

There's no need for this

So why all the bed-wetting when nobody really knows what's being discussed or not discussed?

We're all putting our tuppence in as to what we *think* is going on. We're all just speculating - or are we to stop?

And I think "chirping in from the background" is a bit harsh. Ukraine was invaded by Russia - twice and the second time after signing a declaration that's as far as it would go. I think he's got every right to be skeptical when they're left out of the negotiations.

Why could those negoatiations "to see how Russia really feels about peace" not go ahead with Ukraine in the room? Why could it possibly be a problem to have Ukraine in that room for those talks - unless there was going to be stuff talked about that Ukraine shouldn't be party to - like opening up business channels, revoking sanctions and allowing Russian money and goods to move freely.

As for this

has said repeatedly that this first rounds of talks are only about discerning if Putin is really serious about a peace deal nothing else

It's your prerogative to believe what you want. I don't believe that for a solitairy second.

[Pete Dero]

We're all just speculating - or are we to stop?

It is not speculating.  Everything is being said and written in the open.

[JudgeDredd]

Well - some of the stuff, specifically what I post - is just speculating - but I would argue with a reasonably solid foundation based on the words and attitudes flying around.

One thing I would say is this - if, as a world leader, you're being painted in a positive light in Russia, then I personally think you're on the wrong side of the fence but I guess that depends on what side of the fence you'd rather be.

[Jarhead0331]

Really not a big fan of Ryan McBeth. I think he is much more political than he claims to be and I also think that he thinks his opinion is more important than it actually is, but I do watch as many of his videos as I can and sometimes, they are worth posting. What I do like is that his videos tend to blend the political with the military and strategic and talk about how they interplay, which is what I hope to accomplish in this thread.

I thought his commentary in this one was worth reposting...

[Pete Dero]

We are only making plans for Europe :

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1891898946202546265

Russian propagandist Solovyev has his own ideas on what Russia and the US should negotiate.

"Why not create a military coalition between Russia and America and divide Europe? Who needs it? I think it's a great idea. We'll set up our bases, without a hitch, at the usual points - Berlin, Paris, as in 1814. Europe will immediately save money on the armed forces, on the military-industrial complex, and they won't have to worry about anything."

This is on Russian state TV, so it is approved by Putin.



The U.S. asked Russia in Riyadh for a moratorium on strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Lavrov said.
The request was rejected, he said, because Russia never targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the first place  .

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1891875047280652745
(Source : Yaroslav Trofimov - Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal)

[Con]

Yeah good luck with the negotiations with this type of thinking from the other side
Personally I think people are in over their heads and we are going to see how wishful thinking on the campaign stacks up against hardened reality

[planetbrain]

To say that Russia's invasion is the fault of Ukraine and that Zelenskyy is a dictator responsible for the death of his people is just cruel.
Also, why the explanation that Russia needs Ukraine & other European countries as a buffer zone when they have an abundance of really large nukes to deter?

[Old TImer]

Well I for one don't believe a single word that the MAGA morons say.
trump will sell out Ukraine because he's Putin's boy.  Next they'll
sell out the Europeans because what good are they to America, right?
America is quickly becoming the despised country.  And I hope Canada
kicks America's ass in hockey tonight. I'm a dual citizen of both
countrys though I'm seriously thinking about narrowing that down
by one.   

[Jarhead0331]

Well I for one don't believe a single word that the MAGA morons say.
trump will sell out Ukraine because he's Putin's boy.  Next they'll
sell out the Europeans because what good are they to America, right?
America is quickly becoming the despised country.  And I hope Canada
kicks America's ass in hockey tonight. I'm a dual citizen of both
countrys though I'm seriously thinking about narrowing that down
by one.   

Thanks for the constructive post. What's to say, other than don't let the door bump you on the ass on the way out, I guess? i suppose you'll be happy trading one "fascist" for another?

[Old TImer]

Thanks for the constructive post. What's to say, other than don't let the door bump you on the ass on the way out, I guess? i suppose you'll be happy trading one "fascist" for another?
[/quote]

What isn't constructive about my post?  I don't necessarily go with the prevailing view so I don't get to have an opinion?  Seems to be the new American way.
And I wouldn't be hit with the door I'd be locking it behind me. 
Thanks.

[Jarhead0331]

What isn't constructive about my post?  I don't necessarily go with the prevailing view so I don't get to have an opinion?  Seems to be the new American way.
And I wouldn't be hit with the door I'd be locking it behind me. 
Thanks.

Your post wasn't constructive because it merely insulted "MAGA morons" (whomever that label applies to) while generally attacking the United States. In other words, it added exactly zero to the discussion, made no effort to offer anything meaningful to the issues and was used merely as a platform to express your own emotional ideological partisan perspectives and in a manner that flagrantly ignores our rules. It is disrespectful and disruptive to those who thus far have offered productive and intelligent insights.

You've been warned before. I previously advised that I saw no reason to moderate this thread due the obvious efforts by the active participants in the discussion to be courteous and thoughtful. Don't be "that guy" that makes me regret it.

[JasonPratt]

Despite having some clickbaity titles, Business Basics has had some interesting analysis on Russian/Chinese strategic moves since Russia invaded Ukraine. While certainly opposing the Russian and Chinese (and Nork) moves, they've been pretty neutral on western moves so far. Trump's recent comments have inspired some fairly calm though critical commentary (and the main narrator to personally show his face, maybe for the first time.)

The short version is that the evidence shows Putin is playing to Trump's main weakness, his vanity, by giving him various compliments, which Zel has been less inclined to do (for I think reasonable reasons: it isn't Ukraine's job to make Trump feel good about himself and his history.) This has led Trump to parrot Russian disinformation figures in off-the-cuff remarks as a way of putting pressure on Zel to negotiate.

It's worth keeping in mind, on the other hand, that so far as we know Trump has only threatened to bomb one of them to shit (if I recall his phrasing correctly) if that one doesn't play nice in the sandbox, which that one subsequently did for a while. So, y'know, y'get the mud monster either way.

Anyway, I was also interested to see VP Vance's far more diplomatic remarks supporting T while being apologetically critical of him, translating to 'You have to manage his ego or he does things like this.' (True enough!) I've been busy and sick {cough hack snort} recently so I hadn't kept up enough to hear of V's damage control (though I've seen some of the other things already).

Meanwhile, lots of action on the borders, with one of those borders fluxing toward Kursk again occasionally!  Trump himself has said that he expects Ukraine to end up getting some land back from the eventual peace deals, thanks to that offensive, which he'd certainly be in favor of.

[Sir Slash]

I'll tell you what I think is going on here. Trump is a Hunter. And right now he's hunting a wolf named, 'Putin'. He knows the wolf is smart...and wary. So he has to use just the right kind of bait to draw the wolf out of the forest, into the open where he can get a shot at him. You can't just kill a chicken and get this wolf out of the trees. This old wolf craves meat, bloody, red meat.

So Trump starts grousing about Europe not toting their load and saying kind things about the Russian people. And predictably the press goes crazy followed by the Neo Cons, then the Euro Cons then the Putin Haters, there's a lot of them. And this gets the wolf's attention. He then picks a fight with Zelensky, then one with Macron maybe and or Sholtz and makes sure it gets nasty and personal and before long it looks like the whole NATO alliance is collapsing. Just the kind of bait the wolf cannot resist.

He knows it probably can't be for real, but the smell of all that blood...is irresistible. So maybe he thinks he will take just one more step closer, just to see for sure. And the wolf doesn't notice that he has stepped out of the forest, into the open...and right into the Hunter's crosshairs.  This may not work, but I think Trump is so deep inside Putin's head that he's got him chasing his own tail trying to figure-out if it's real or not.