Israel

[Tripoli]

Ward Carroll has a video out describing the possible supply chain for the pagers.  Go to 2:32 of the video below:

[ArizonaTank]

... As an aside, I thought the "exploding pager" operation was one of the top covert operations of all time.  But to immediately follow it up with exploding radios?  Sublime brilliance....

I agree, huge intel win for Israel. However, I also think it is a huge intel failure for Hezbollah. Newer technologies often cause this type of blind spot. In 1914, the Imperial Russian Army used their new wireless sets to transmit uncoded orders at Tannenberg; the Russians did not realize until too late that the Germans were listening. Or, early in Prohibition, gangsters not comprehending that Government agents were listening in on their phone conversations.   

Supply chain risks in the electronic equipment and software space are not a new concept, but Western governments have only been serious about addressing them in the last 10 years or so. Even with this vigilance, there are occasional high profile issues uncovered, like the use of Huawei telecom equipment, or Kaspersky software (companies with Chinese and Russian government links respectively). Both of those are now banned for use in many Western governments, including the US.

[Tripoli]

Now home solar systems are reportedly exploding in Beirut.  The fires in the video look fairly large, but I have trouble believing that such fires will cause significant numbers of casualties.  It may be that Israel is intending to  burn down the homes of Hezbollah fighters? Based on this very fragmentary report, this part of the operation "feels" like it is intended for a psychological impact. Very much in line with what Jarhead mentioned earlier.
 
 https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/developing-home-solar-systems-explode-beirut-lebanon-following/

[Uberhaus]

When they get to exploding carrier pigeons then we will have reached a level of awesomeness that requires a new catch phrase for intelligence ops

The string for the tin cans has been replaced with detcord.

[JasonPratt]

However, I also think it is a huge intel failure for Hezbollah. Newer technologies often cause this type of blind spot.

The first level of intel failure started with "pagers" being "newer technology" for them. Newer than walkie-talkies at least!

(To be fair the pagers were probably considered more secure precisely for being much lower tech unlike cell phones. Still, I remember back when cell phones were such relatively new tech that Tom Clancy plots sometimes used their untraceable nature, and then breakthroughs on tracing them!)

[Tripoli]

According to this article, the exploding pagers were actually manufactured by Israel. Apparently, the Taiwan manufacturer subcontracted production to an Israel-controlled shell company.

 https://www.dailywire.com/news/israel-did-not-intercept-hezbollah-pagers-that-exploded-it-made-them?seyid=22665

[JasonPratt]

Aside from collateral damage, that is genuinely hilarious. "Who made these things?" "Uh, we didn't, it was the Taiwanese!" "No we didn't, it was the Jews!"

Mossad: *shrugs* 

Hezbollah: "AHA! It was always a giant Jewish conspiracy just like we always said!"

Mossad: *eyes the space laser controls off to the side* 

[Skoop]

There's also the physical marking of the terrorists.  Now when you see a Lebanese with missing fingers or trauma to their thigh or side.....yeah, they're a terrorist.   

[JudgeDredd]

Or they bought a second hand pager - or just bought a pager that made it onto a market outside of Hezbollah.

Never judge a book by it's cover. It's an old saying, but one that helps people stop judging based on sight alone.

[Sir Slash]

Why do I get the feeling that all across America, housewives are rushing-out to buy their husbands new pagers to use? 

[JasonPratt]

Israel ground war started 8 or 9 hours ago. Fighting at night (local), to maximize their relative abilities against Hez defenders.

The first advances from Israel's perspective:

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1840837006143676746

The first advances from Lebanon's perspective:

https://x.com/301intl/status/1840825165753495920

(Like watching the advance of Godzilla behind a hill in the distance....)

Hat-tip to the Enforcer, who live-streamed the first couple of hours. But ran out of recent information pretty quickly due to Israel shutting down op-sec. More of the few pix and vids so far here, though.

No doubt much more to come tomorrow as op-sec lifts (and/or from Lebanese information on the receiving end of it.)

[Pete Dero]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt

Iran confirms missile attack on Israel has started

Iran's state-run news agency IRNA has now confirmed that Tehran's military has started launching ballistic missiles towards Israel.


Interceptions heard in Jerusalem

Two interceptions have been heard by colleagues in our Middle East bureau in Jerusalem.
It comes a short while after the Israeli military said Iran had launched missiles towards Israel.



IDF urges Israelis to go to 'protected spaces' if sirens heard

We can bring you more now from the Israeli military, which said moments ago that Iran had launched missiles towards Israel.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) urges Israelis to "remain alert and precisely follow the home front command's instructions".
"Upon hearing a siren, you must enter a protected space and remain there until further notice", it adds.


IDF says Iran has launched missiles towards Israel

A short while ago, missiles were launched from Iran towards Israel, the Israeli military says in a statement.
It adds that sirens have sounded all across Israel.



The IDF shared a graphic showing the locations of the air raid alerts issued across Israel in the past few minutes

[Jarhead0331]

Its sad that Israel will again be at war as it heads into the high holy days of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur.

[W8taminute]

Psalm 121:4

הִנֵּ֣ה לֹֽא־יָ֭נוּם וְלֹ֣א יִישָׁ֑ן שׁ֝וֹמֵ֗ר יִשְׂרָאֵֽל׃
Behold, He that keepeth Israel Doth neither slumber nor sleep.

Pray for the innocent people involved in both sides of this conflict. 

Netanyahu in his speech the other day said to the people of Iran, that our issue is not with you but with your government.  (Paraphrasing)

[Sir Slash]

I would suspect this move by Iran will end up costing them a great deal more than the price of those missiles. Perhaps even a nuclear price tag. One thing for certain, nobody in Tehran tonight is answering their cells or carrying their pagers.