The Chinese Navy

[GDS_Starfury]

not so much a current event but more of a question.
in the real world how much of a global threat is the PLAN?
they dont need to operate globaly and for the most part they really dont.  they'll never close the Atlantic, the Horn, or the Persian Gulf nor can they operate off of South America or the US west coast. 

discuss.

[Longdan]

Let us look at it this way: when was the last time the USA underestimated an Asian military force?
Discuss.

[GDS_Starfury]

oh we dont do that at all now.
Id venture to say that the Japanese Navy today is the 2nd most capable in the world going by hull type and number.  their electronics are on par with ours.  having said that Ill defer to doctrine.  the US and Japanese Navy's have decades operating against and with each other doing blue water ops.  the Chinese... not so much.  I'll put it like this.  I kick ass in a modern wargame.  in the real world BB would beat the snot out me prison style.

what makes you think the PLAN has a plan?

[besilarius]

Right now, their navy is a very regional force.
It will take probably ten-fifteen years for them to develop a full spectrum force, with naval air, efficient submarines, and a trained force of surface combatants.
They can get away with a lot now, because the Philippines and Vietnam have no force projection at sea.  Only Japan can face them, regionally.
The thing to watch for the future, is if they take the next step to long range deployments by building the Service Squadrons/Sea Train that the USN developed during the Pacific War.  The only reason we can do things like put carrier group(s) outside Iran is the surprisingly large number of support vessels.
They ain't sexy, and they never get any attention in the news, but they're the oil that makes things happen.
Until they develop something like that, and a real carrier force (to have air cover outside of their land based air), then their navy is only a local force.

[Staggerwing]

This is completely irrelevant but every time I hear the term Peoples' Liberation Army Navy I have a vision of racks of decommissioned Spanish Military raincoats along side bins filled with canteens from Hungary and cheap folding entrenching tools, all for sale somewhere on Telegraph Avenue...

[bob48]

'decommissioned Spanish Military raincoats'

I have no idea why, but that made me laugh my socks off - evidently I'm even dafter than I thought I was.

[Longdan]

In the Spanish Army even the raincoats are officers.

[eyebiter]

IMHO the Chinese submarine fleet poses the greatest threat.  With the amount of merchant traffic in that region, PLAN diesel subs could do a lot of damage.  Not just traditional attack sub roles, passive missions including deploying mines, using subs to drop off special forces, or to track US surface ships for Chinese ballistic missile targeting.

[Longdan]

oh we dont do that at all now.

Is that a quote from MacArthur's 1950's hit "Yalu River"?  Or was it the Brit band "Christie" in the 70's?
Anyway with out meaning to demean your opinion, the PLAN know they are the underdog and the USN
has ruled the waves since Britain gave that up.  The capabilities of the Japanese Self Defense Forces
are well known.  It is unlikely the Plan of the PLAN is to meet this Naval strength.  The Chinese seem to
do things differently and for the long term.  And the classic carrier group is becoming vulnerable to missile
technology.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Becoming? The carrier group has been a sitting duck for missiles for a long time. It's protection has been that nobody wants a full out war with a country that has one.

[GDS_Starfury]

Chinese missile capability is nothing compared to what the Soviets could have thrown at a CVBG.
thats not posturing or over confidence, its simple fact.  if I were a US Admiral Id rather face the Chinese Air Force and day rather then Soviet Naval Bombers.

[bayonetbrant]

the issue w/ the Chinese is not their threat level today, but their threat level in 30 years, because that's the major acquisition horizon for most DoD programs.  If we need a new hull type for Pac Rim naval combat, we need to start prepping and commissioning those things now if we want them to be available in 30 years. 

What can they do right now?  Nothing we can't legitimately counter.  It would be ugly for a bit, especially if they surprise everyone with a Pearl Harbor-type massive attack. (Think 20 subs sinking 3 merchant ships each within 24 hours).  But it wouldn't take long for us to completely remove the threat w/ conventional missiles and massive naval airpower.

What can they do in 30 years? I'll defer to the experts.

That said, what would the economic costs of such a move be?  I don't think China can afford to piss off the rest of the world by attacking all their trade partners.

[Centurion40]

'decommissioned Spanish Military raincoats'

I have no idea why, but that made me laugh my socks off - evidently I'm even dafter than I thought I was.

That discovery is not usually a pleasant surprise!  Hat's off to you Bob!!

[bob48]

The whole thing has started to worry me. I mean to say, if I've become aware that I'm dafter than I thought I was, I could be even dafter without knowing it.

I'll just have to rely on you lot telling me if I say something really crazy.......


...erm, no, maybe not such a good idea....(mutter, mutter.....)

[Longdan]

Do not worry if you are crazy.  If you do worry you aren't.  It is like being boring.  If you worry about
being boring you aren't.  Crazy people are convinced they ARE ALL OKAY!! and that something is wrong
with YOU!!  I have observed no evidence of this in anything you have posted.  I will not vouch for
anyone else.