North Korea: When Internet Trolls Get Nukes

[Longdan]

They threatened before.  I guess that chubby kid didn't learn to play well at that private school in Switzerland.
"Hey there Jong-Un!  Whaddaya gonna do after ya finish school?"
"Oh I dunno.  Maybe be a crazy dictator of a Hermit Rogue Nation or something.....or maybe a marine biologist"

[JasonPratt]

Threatened, yes; did it, no.

I expect this is mainly an internal political ploy to demonstrate to the old regime that the new kid has the balls to play with the big dogs. If we can find him something to point at as a political accomplishment, he'll back down, maybe.

In other words (if this theory is true), it's a matter of life and death to him personally at the moment (from coup threats) if he can't prove he can hack it as Glorious Leader. If he gets a concession that allows him to save his life and then tries again, he'll have to be stomped by people outside the country.

Still, they've publicly admitted that the moment they get an ICBM they intend to hold the world (or our side of the world) hostage with it. Or even fire it off for perceived benefit. Or for the Lulz. Or for the crazyuls.

It might be better to say, fine, you want us to dissolve the armistice and actually fight you, done. From here on out we treat you like Cobra Commander. Expect us to remove you with the minimum loss of civilian life we feasibly can under the circumstances. Whoever gets chosen Glorious Leader next, gets the smart-bomb target and the special force ninjas, too. Whenever one of you decides to shut down the nuclear program, we'll go back to the armistice.

[Boggit]

Threatened, yes; did it, no.

I expect this is mainly an internal political ploy to demonstrate to the old regime that the new kid has the balls to play with the big dogs. If we can find him something to point at as a political accomplishment, he'll back down, maybe.

In other words (if this theory is true), it's a matter of life and death to him personally at the moment (from coup threats) if he can't prove he can hack it as Glorious Leader. If he gets a concession that allows him to save his life and then tries again, he'll have to be stomped by people outside the country.

Still, they've publicly admitted that the moment they get an ICBM they intend to hold the world (or our side of the world) hostage with it. Or even fire it off for perceived benefit. Or for the Lulz. Or for the crazyuls.

It might be better to say, fine, you want us to dissolve the armistice and actually fight you, done. From here on out we treat you like Cobra Commander. Expect us to remove you with the minimum loss of civilian life we feasibly can under the circumstances. Whoever gets chosen Glorious Leader next, gets the smart-bomb target and the special force ninjas, too. Whenever one of you decides to shut down the nuclear program, we'll go back to the armistice.

I empathise with your concern about civilians whose only stake in the matter is survival. Problem is that Li'l Kim may have found himself in a corner with nowhere to go if the sanctions work as expected. Rather than have him go through with his suicidal threats, he really could do with a "golden bridge" to retreat over this time, and so save face - On the understanding that after that reprieve he has quite literally burnt his bridges. Perhaps I'm being hopeful, but it would save a lot of lives yet draw a line that he would know he couldn't cross without being hammered in future?

[Longdan]

How much Chivas Regal or Hennessy did he bring back from Europe anyway?

[LongBlade]

How much Chivas Regal or Hennessy did he bring back from Europe anyway?

Enough that he didn't have much spending money left over for rice to feed his people.

[LongBlade]

Stratfor has published their thoughts and a possible alternative view of the Norks' strategy.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/considering-departure-north-koreas-strategy

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Fishing expedition. The guy that wrote it doesn't believe it. It is like the world is a cow with a ring through it's nose, being pulled around by the norks.

If a swarm of robot insects landed on most the nork artillery tubes, what size charge would be required to make the tubes inoperable? The artillery is their Queen piece. It needs to be taken off the board.

[JasonPratt]

I have trouble believing that "don't worry we're actually weak!" is part of their global diplomatic strategy. It isn't like the Glorious Leader is the only symptom of egocentric craziness in their government (i.e. as though he's a political distraction put up by the real leadership).

[JasonPratt]

To clarify: I could see the institutionalized neuroses of the Nork leadership leading to a persecution complex where they tried to leverage world opinion by complaining about how they're being bullied, even though that would run against their propaganda about being so supremely awesome.

What I can't see is the same people self-consciously setting up a situation where other people decide they really are weak, or ideally even weaker than they actually are, with the goal that those other people would therefore not bother to exploit such fragile weakness.


From the article: "Unless its neighbors bought into [the premise that North Korea is actually too weak to bother about], North Korea could be susceptible to covert or overt foreign involvement, which would put the regime on the defensive and reveal its weakness."

In other words, the assessment is that unless North Korea successfully reveals its weakness underlying its shows of ferocity and craziness, to convince its enemies it's really to weak too bother with covert or overt foreign involvement, North Korea could be susceptible to covert or overt foreign involvement which would reveal its weakness.



Uh, yeah, or maybe they're just fiercely crazy and also happen to be weak but not by their own design, George. Although I'd admit that strategy would reek of craziness...

[JasonPratt]

Having laughed at the overthinking there, I do sort of like the theory that Kim III thinks it's a good idea to push brinksmanship to a level of "holy bleep you guys let's pull back before SK is annihilated", even if that means sacrificing something he's willing to lose -- not because that's much of a rational plan in itself, but because to a crazy dictator who has to prove himself sufficiently unpredictable and fierce to his own people that could seem like a good plan.

[Longdan]

Well that fambly seems to not trouble themselves too much about the welfare of their starving serfs.
I cannot help thinking of Team America everytime I picture the Norx.

[Staggerwing]

"Wonwy... so woh-ohnwy."

[Longdan]

Now check this one out!  You poor, poor Americans!!!  It looks like Winnipeg!

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/alleged-north-korean-propaganda-video-americans-live-today-215322616.html

[mirth]

I wondered why that North Korean camera crew was following me around.

[pawelj]

Having laughed at the overthinking there, I do sort of like the theory that Kim III thinks it's a good idea to push brinksmanship to a level of "holy bleep you guys let's pull back before SK is annihilated", even if that means sacrificing something he's willing to lose -- not because that's much of a rational plan in itself, but because to a crazy dictator who has to prove himself sufficiently unpredictable and fierce to his own people that could seem like a good plan.

There is no reason to overthink this. The reality is the NK entity is weak, even with millions of goosestepping soldiers and few undeliverable nukes. There is no reason to engage with them at all. Their military has no fighting experience, and whatever it has is not very good. Their equipment is outdated and while they may be able to inflict some damage on Seoul for a little while (hours/a day), that would be all they could do. Of course this assumes that US/UN would go all out on their sorry asses in case of even one shot fired at Korea. China should be told to mind their own business and any incursion by them into Korea across Yalu river wound be view as an aggression on ROK, covered by a defensive pact between US and ROK.